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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 11/15/23 at 6:06 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 11/15/23 at 6:06 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I would appreciate some quotes
quote:
KHERSON, Ukraine—Ukrainian marines slip across the Dnipro River at night in small groups to reinforce a growing contingent of troops engaged in a daring operation to reinvigorate Kyiv’s military efforts in the occupied south.
They have established three toeholds in and around villages on the eastern bank of the river in recent weeks, cutting off a road Russia uses to supply troops in the area, according to soldiers involved in the operation. The Ukrainians are hunkered down in basements and trenches and heavily outnumbered. Their hold is precarious.
Still, it is a rare bright spot for Kyiv amid a number of somber developments, including the failure of its counteroffensive to gain much ground, a new Russian offensive in the east and uncertainty over additional military aid from the U.S., Ukraine’s most important backer. Ukraine first publicly acknowledged the cross-river operation this week.
Ukrainian forces recently transferred armored Humvees and at least one infantry-fighting vehicle to support troops on the Dnipro’s eastern bank, the soldiers said. If the Ukrainians manage to amass sufficient units and armored vehicles there, they could seek to advance into territory where Russian defenses are less extensive than those further east that blunted the main thrust of Ukraine’s counteroffensive
That could force Russia to reposition forces needed for offensives to the east, and pose a threat to Russian supply lines from occupied Crimea, a critical staging post and logistics hub for Moscow’s war effort that Ukraine has been targeting with drone and missile attacks for weeks.
The operation on the opposite bank a few miles from the Ukrainian-held regional capital of Kherson is proving costly and hard going. Soldiers involved in the fight say they are under heavy fire. Russian drones constantly circle over their hastily dug trenches, coordinating artillery strikes each time they detect movement. As darkness falls, the Ukrainian troops use shovels to dig themselves deeper into the ground.
“We need to be realistic about what can be achieved here,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, an independent military analyst who recently toured the front lines in Ukraine. “The terrain is extremely difficult, making it not only a challenge to steadily resupply forces but also generate the necessary momentum to conduct sustained offensive operations.”
One private in Ukraine’s 38th Marine Brigade who crossed to the eastern bank at the start of November said his unit had advanced 100 yards in the six days he was there before he was evacuated for treatment of a concussion.
For every fighter we have there, they have 10,” said the 32-year-old private, who gave his name as Andriy. “And we’re sitting in trenches unable to even stick our heads out.”
Ukraine’s recapture of Kherson last November was its last major advance. Russia withdrew troops across the river and began digging defenses
In June, the destruction of the Kakhovka dam on Russian-held territory to the east of Kherson unleashed a torrent of water that inundated dozens of settlements along the Dnipro. With the river much wider and a crossing less of a threat, Russia moved some troops eastward to fend off Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which began that month.
As the waters receded over the summer, Ukraine stepped up cross-river raids that initially harassed Russian forces and led to the capture of some soldiers
Last month, the Ukrainians started establishing a presence on the eastern bank in the villages of Krynky and two other areas farther west.
Ukraine has shrouded the operation in secrecy, offering no official comment until Monday, when Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, acknowledged while on a visit to Washington that there was a Ukrainian military presence on the left bank.
Video posted by pro-Kremlin military bloggers shows houses in Krynky being hit by Russian munitions. “They are hiding in hedges, in houses,” Russian military analyst Boris Rozhin wrote on Telegram on Monday. Russia’s defense ministry said on Monday that it had captured a Ukrainian unit that tried to cross the river.
The area around Krynky is heavily mined by Russian forces. The Ukrainians move forward in small groups to limit their exposure. And the onset of winter next month will complicate their efforts to move men and equipment across the water and stage mechanized advances with any armored vehicles brought over
Andriy, the marine private, arrived on the left bank on the night of Nov. 1. The soldiers disembarked in different locations, avoiding Russian mines and enemy snipers and spotters, and waded through mud to reach the village of Krynky.
The task for Andriy’s brigade was to move forward in squad and company-size units and push into the forests around the village. They took up positions in rudimentary trenches and dugouts in the forest, but immediately began being pounded by Russian artillery.
In the week Andriy spent on the eastern bank before being injured and evacuated, his unit moved forward 100 yards into the forest, he said. They defended trenches hastily dug in the wet ground, as Russian troops positioned less than 100 meters away blasted them with rocket-propelled grenades.
There was a constant hum overhead as Russian strike and surveillance drones circled over his trench line, with one replaced by another when its battery ran out. Small arms exchanges were constant. Two soldiers in Andriy’s company were killed by a sniper
Andriy observed the Russians relaxing a short distance away in elaborate dugouts they had constructed over months, equipped with generators and cooking stoves. They played rap music during lulls in fighting.
Russian armored personnel carriers brought in regular shipments of artillery shells and ammunition during the night. Last week, the Ukrainians said they captured eight Russian soldiers who had changed into Ukrainian uniforms and tried to infiltrate their positions in Krynky.
Yaroslav, a junior sergeant who is a medic in the 38th and was part of the same river crossing as Andriy, set himself up in the basement of a house in Krynky that had been vacated by residents who left during floods unleashed by the Kakhovka dam explosion.
The high floodwaters have long receded, but the walls of the houses are covered with mold, with smelly clothes and rotted furniture inside. They have only basic supplies, with no generators and very few stretchers to carry the dead and wounded to the riverbank
Yaroslav’s job as a medic was to patch up wounded soldiers and transfer them to boats for treatment on the left bank. He said he struggled to keep up with the flow of wounded soldiers to his basement stabilization point in Krynky, and often the shelling was so intense that some of those carrying stretchers were wounded themselves.
“Everything you have there is what you brought yourself, and what they manage to bring you on boats,” he said. “But for that you have to go to the riverbank, and every such trip is Russian roulette
That's up to the character limit on TD
2
Posted on 11/15/23 at 8:19 am to StormyMcMan
Thxs
A somber analysis of the situation. It’s a tough spot.
A somber analysis of the situation. It’s a tough spot.
Posted on 11/15/23 at 9:54 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
They have established three toeholds in and around villages on the eastern bank of the river in recent weeks, cutting off a road Russia uses to supply troops in the area, according to soldiers involved in the operation. The Ukrainians are hunkered down in basements and trenches and heavily outnumbered. Their hold is precarious.
Doesn't sound great, TBH. Lot of hopium on social media, not a lot of verified results.
Again: they'd need a ton of bridges to heavy equipment across the river, and if they can't get heavy gear across the river, they're not going very far.
Posted on 11/15/23 at 11:45 am to RuLSU
quote:
Doesn't sound great, TBH. Lot of hopium on social media, not a lot of verified results.
Well, there are a lot of videos of Ukrainian artillery and drones hitting the Russian positions in those areas. I don't have a total for how much Russian equipment has been destroyed in South Kherson in the last month or so, but it's a lot.
The WSJ obviously didn't quote anyone in a Ukrainian artillery or drone unit in the area.
Posted on 11/15/23 at 11:53 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Well, there are a lot of videos of Ukrainian artillery and drones hitting the Russian positions in those areas. I don't have a total for how much Russian equipment has been destroyed in South Kherson in the last month or so, but it's a lot.
I think Ukraine started doing hit and run raids trying to get Russia to move forces here to take pressure off elsewhere. Russia appears to have basically left the raids the the current forces in the area without sending reserves. so Ukraine has decided to push more forces in and try to hold some of the crossing areas (which are mostly swampy or unpopulated forested areas just on the east side of the river.
IMO ukraine will keep pushing incrementally until russia moves reserved into the area or they will keep inching east....
> 
Posted on 11/15/23 at 5:23 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
It’s going to be another tough winter for Ukrainians as it’s noticeable they are using their missiles and shahed drones sparingly so they have lots to send at key infrastructure targets.
Yes. We need to speed up the delivery of FrankenSAMs to Ukraine.
quote:
I do think they will be much more prepared now that they have experienced what Russia plans to do
Yes Ukraine is protecting key sites with SAMs and even sandbags (Yes shahed drones can be defeated by sheet metal and sandbags) and the number of people who own backup batteries and/or generators is much higher this winter than last. CNN
Posted on 11/15/23 at 7:29 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
The Dnipro is far too wide to use AVLBs.
But it’s not too late to use all the pontoon bridges that Ukraine received last year and used in their drive to retake Kherson city. The Dnieper River is ~ 1/4th of a mile wide at the bridgehead and once on the east side of the river the AVLBs will be helpful for crossing the land in between the Dnieper and Konka rivers. Now is the time for Ukraine to build their bridgehead up and get everything ready to move quickly because Russia can’t build up their fortifications and lay mines this time of year because the ground isn’t frozen yet.
Posted on 11/15/23 at 7:53 pm to WeeWee
ISW Update
quote:
The European Union (EU) appears poised to ban the export of precision machine tools and key weapons manufacturing equipment components to Russia. The ban, if enacted and effectively enforced, could deal a significant blow to Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) given precision machine tools’ importance in industrial manufacturing. Bloomberg reported on November 15 that the EU’s 12th sanctions package proposes a ban on the export of precision machine tools and machinery parts that Russia uses to make weapons and ammunition, such as welding machines, lithium batteries, thermostats, motors, and drone motors.[1] Bloomberg reported that Russia has been importing precision machines and precision machine tools from Europe to sustain its ammunition production and other DIB production efforts. Bne Intellinews reported in June 2021 that Russia’s near total reliance on European- and US-produced precision machine tools makes Russia particularly vulnerable to such sanctions and noted that at the time Russia imported almost all of the precision machines it required.[2]
Russia has been increasingly attempting to develop import substitution solutions for sourcing Western-made precision machine tools in 2023, likely in preparation for Western sanctions targeting this vulnerability. The Russian government approved in May 2023 the “Concept of Technological Development until 2030,” which encourages domestic production of high-tech products such as precision machine tools and mandates that domestic enterprises produce at least 75 percent of Russia’s high-tech products by 2030.[3] Russian state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec reported in August 2023 that Russia’s STAN group, the country’s largest domestic precision machine manufacturer, which Rostec purchased in 2019, is a major element of Russia’s import substitution program.[4] Rostec subsidiary RT-Capital’s head, Semyon Yakubov, told Kommersant on October 26 that Rostec hopes to use the STAN Group to meet Russia’s “great need” for modern precision machines in the absence of Western imports.[5] Yakubov stated that Western sanctions and the war in Ukraine have sharply increased Russia’s military and civilian demand for domestically produced machine tools. Yabukov noted that STAN was unable to meet even a third of the total volume of Russia’s orders for precision machines in 2023, worth around six billion rubles (approximately $67.1 million). Yabukov stated that Russia’s demand for precision machines is “much greater” than its current production abilities.
Denmark will reportedly start inspecting and potentially blocking Russian oil tankers in an effort to enforce a price cap on Russian oil and the European Union’s (EU) insurance regulations. The Financial Times (FT) reported on November 15 that the EU proposed measures that would allow Denmark to inspect and block Russian oil tankers traveling through the Danish straits. These measures are part of an EU effort to enforce a G7 cap demanding that Western insurers only provide coverage to Russian shipments where oil is sold for less than $60 per barrel
The Ukrainian government reached a deal with international insurers that will provide affordable coverage to vessels carrying grain and other critical food supplies through the Black Sea corridor for civilian vessels, amid continued Russian efforts to deny navigation through the corridor. The Financial Times (FT) reported on November 15 that the Ukrainian government reached a deal with insurance broker giant Marsh McLennan to provide up to $50 million in hull and liability insurance from Lloyd’s of London firms for each vessel carrying agricultural goods.[9] Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that this agreement would allow Ukraine to “provide vital food supplies to the world at the same time as supporting the Ukrainian economy and keeping the Black Sea open for international trade.”[10] Russian forces have continually conducted strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure and mined areas in the Black Sea to deny freedom of navigation in the corridor.[11]
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated during a meeting with Russian election commission representatives on November 15 that the Russian government will suppress any foreign or domestic election interference. Putin stated that the Russian government will “continue to do everything necessary to prevent any illegal intrusion into electoral processes.”[12] Putin notably did not specifically reference the March 2024 presidential elections, nor did he announce his announce his presidential campaign.
Recent Russian opinion polls indicate that roughly half of Russians maintain support for the war in Ukraine and for Russia to engage in peace negotiations. The Levada Center – an independent Russian polling organization – reported on October 31 that 55 percent of respondents to a recent poll believe that Russia should begin peace negotiations while 38 percent favor continuing to conduct the war.[13] The Levada Center observed that while these numbers slightly increased between September and October by four percent, they have largely remained consistent since July 2023.[14] The Levada Center added that support for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine remained high with 76 percent of respondents stating that they support Russian military operations in Ukraine. The Levada Center reported that 62 percent of surveyed Russians believe that the full-scale invasion is progressing well, while 21 percent of respondents believe that the war is going reasonably or very poorly for Russia.
Yandex NV - the Dutch holding company of Russian internet technology company Yandex - reportedly aims to sell all its Russian assets by the end of 2023, allowing the Russian government to further increase its hold over the Russian information space. Reuters and Bloomberg reported on November 14, citing sources familiar with the matter, that Yandex NV likely aims to sell all its Russian assets, not just a controlling stake, by the end of 2023.
Posted on 11/15/23 at 7:54 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The European Union (EU) appears poised to ban the export of precision machine tools and key weapons manufacturing equipment components to Russia.
Denmark will reportedly start inspecting and potentially blocking Russian oil tankers in an effort to enforce a price cap on Russian oil and the European Union’s (EU) insurance regulations.
The Ukrainian government reached a deal with international insurers that will provide affordable coverage to vessels carrying grain and other critical food supplies through the Black Sea corridor for civilian vessels, amid continued Russian efforts to deny navigation through the corridor.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated during a meeting with Russian election commission representatives on November 15 that the Russian government will suppress any foreign or domestic election interference.
Recent Russian opinion polls indicate that roughly half of Russians maintain support for the war in Ukraine and for Russia to engage in peace negotiations.
Yandex NV - the Dutch holding company of Russian internet technology company Yandex - reportedly aims to sell all its Russian assets by the end of 2023, allowing the Russian government to further increase its hold over the Russian information space.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
A Russian insider source claimed that Kremlin-created Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation, which presented a limited number of former Wagner fighters with the certificates of their combat veteran status, is coercing former Wagner fighters into signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
Russian and occupation authorities continue efforts to indoctrinate Ukrainian students in occupied Ukraine.
Posted on 11/15/23 at 8:26 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
The European Union (EU) appears poised to ban the export of precision machine tools and key weapons manufacturing equipment components to Russia. The ban, if enacted and effectively enforced, could deal a significant blow to Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) given precision machine tools’ importance in industrial manufacturing. Bloomberg reported on November 15 that the EU’s 12th sanctions package proposes a ban on the export of precision machine tools and machinery parts that Russia uses to make weapons and ammunition, such as welding machines, lithium batteries, thermostats, motors, and drone motors.[1] Bloomberg reported that Russia has been importing precision machines and precision machine tools from Europe to sustain its ammunition production and other DIB production efforts. Bne Intellinews reported in June 2021 that Russia’s near total reliance on European- and US-produced precision machine tools makes Russia particularly vulnerable to such sanctions and noted that at the time Russia imported almost all of the precision machines it required.
Wait a minute. They have not done that already? This invasion is like 20 months old. Geez how stupid are the people in charge of sanctions?
Posted on 11/15/23 at 10:14 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Lima Whiskey
Geez. Who let the FSB agent back into the thread?
Posted on 11/16/23 at 5:03 am to WeeWee
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 16 November 2023
Over the last week, Russian forces have continued attacks towards outlying villages of the contested town of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast. Russia is almost certainly attempting a pincer movement to encircle the town. Avdiivka has been fought over for nearly a decade and holds political importance to Russia given its proximity to Donetsk city.
Recent advances have likely brought Russian forces close to the Ukrainian-held Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, a sprawling industrial complex which produces coke and a variety of chemicals, occupies a key tactical position to the north of the town. The plant dominates the main road into Avdiivka and, if Russian forces were to secure it, resupplying the town would become increasingly difficult for Ukraine.
However, the industrial facility provides Ukraine with a localised defensive advantage and Russian forces will probably suffer significant personnel losses if they attempt to assault the facility.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 16 November 2023
Over the last week, Russian forces have continued attacks towards outlying villages of the contested town of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast. Russia is almost certainly attempting a pincer movement to encircle the town. Avdiivka has been fought over for nearly a decade and holds political importance to Russia given its proximity to Donetsk city.
Recent advances have likely brought Russian forces close to the Ukrainian-held Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, a sprawling industrial complex which produces coke and a variety of chemicals, occupies a key tactical position to the north of the town. The plant dominates the main road into Avdiivka and, if Russian forces were to secure it, resupplying the town would become increasingly difficult for Ukraine.
However, the industrial facility provides Ukraine with a localised defensive advantage and Russian forces will probably suffer significant personnel losses if they attempt to assault the facility.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 7:16 am to doubleb
quote:
A somber analysis of the situation. It’s a tough spot.
I know many don’t want to admit it, but it’s time for Ukraine to ask for peace terms. Their summer offensive failed to achieve any appreciable gains, and nowhere near their goals. And this bridgehead over the river has zero chance to develop into anything of significance.
The bottom line is Ukraine has shot their bolt. There is nothing left to gain from continuing the war. Ukraine should seek terms now and end the pointless bloodshed.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 7:18 am to cypher
Russia Stockpiles 800 Missiles in Crimea, Gearing Up For Winter Strikes Campaign
The Ministry of Energy has earlier cautioned that Russia is anticipating "stable" frosts in Ukraine, aiming to launch massive strikes on the country's energy facilities.
The Kyiv Post
The Ministry of Energy has earlier cautioned that Russia is anticipating "stable" frosts in Ukraine, aiming to launch massive strikes on the country's energy facilities.
The Kyiv Post
Posted on 11/16/23 at 7:21 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
it’s time for Ukraine to ask for peace terms.
A peace treaty with Putin?
It wouldn't accomplish anything. There would be a temporary lull in the fighting. But Russia would use that as a time to reorganize and rearm itself. This whole thing would be back up and running in 5 years or less.
The casualty rates are sustainable. Ukraine has about 800 males turn 18 every day. And its army is in way better shape today than it was 2 years ago.
Every day that passes Ukraine has more weapons and Russia has fewer.
As long as weapons and money continue to flow it's in Ukraine best interest to stick it out.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 7:34 am to No Colors
quote:
It wouldn't accomplish anything. There would be a temporary lull in the fighting. But Russia would use that as a time to reorganize and rearm itself. This whole thing would be back up and running in 5 years or less.
So would Ukraine.
quote:
The casualty rates are sustainable. Ukraine has about 800 males turn 18 every day. And its army is in way better shape today than it was 2 years ago.
At this point all that is being accomplished is to feed those 800 kids into the meat grinder of static trench warfare. The bottom line truth is Ukraine lacks the military capability to achieve its war aims. As I said above, there is nothing left to gain from fighting.
quote:
Every day that passes Ukraine has more weapons and Russia has fewer.
This isn’t true, at least true enough to have an impact on the battlefield.
quote:
As long as weapons and money continue to flow it's in Ukraine best interest to stick it out.
Not really. A lot of NATO members have already sent all they can spare. And as it becomes more and more apparent Ukraine cannot achieve anything resembling a strategic breakthrough, pressure will increase in the US to scale back spending billions to prop up a pointless war.
Here’s the bottom line. Unlike many here, I look at this war from a strictly neutral perspective. I’m not emotionally tied to either side in this war. And I’m telling you, Ukraine needs to sue for peace.
I know your emotions cloud your judgement on this matter so you’ll down vote away and argue against it. But deep down in your gut, you know I’m right.
This post was edited on 11/16/23 at 7:36 am
Posted on 11/16/23 at 7:52 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
I know your emotions cloud your judgement on this matter
You don't know anything about me.
My arguments are just as sober and detached as anyone on either side here, and way more so than most.
If Ukraine gives up 20% of its territory and most of its port access to a belligerent neighbor, then it rewards bad behavior. No emotion to that. It's just logic. As long as your people are willing to fight and die, then you resist aggression to the last.
If your country was invaded by a neighbor, would you roll over and sue for peace? Or would you fight it out?
Countries that fight back survive. Countries that negotiate with bad actors end up swallowed up or hollowed out.
That's not emotion. That's history.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 8:00 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
The bottom line is Ukraine has shot their bolt. There is nothing left to gain from continuing the war. Ukraine should seek terms now and end the pointless bloodshed.
So you believe that Ukraine should accept whatever terms Russia offers?
Russia isn’t going to give Ukraine any slack. They are going to take what they have now and ask for more.
Posted on 11/16/23 at 8:07 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
I know many don’t want to admit it, but it’s time for Ukraine to ask for peace terms.
Looking at economies, Russia is in a shiitepile of hurt. Obviously, Ukraine is as well, as long as Europe supports Ukraine economically, it can beat Russia. There is no one to bring them back like the World Bank did in the 1990's.
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