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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/26/23 at 5:58 pm to Stidham8
Posted on 8/26/23 at 5:58 pm to Stidham8
quote:
I’ve been posting about the utterly failed counteroffensive going on 3 months now.
The delusion still lives strong here.
I don’t know you. And unlike you, and some others in this thread, I look at this war from (1) an unbiased and (2) knowledgeable standpoint thanks to being both a veteran and having spent the previous four decades plus in unrelenting study of military history. I do not treat this war as a football game and I’m pulling for one side over the other.
Having said that, I implore you to stop because you’re making a complete arse of yourself. Ukraine’s offensive has not exactly been successful on the scale of historic offensives like Operation Bagration when the Soviets destroyed German Army Group Center in late summer 1944 or Case Yellow when Germany used Manstein‘a ingenious “Sickle Cut” to knock France out of the war in six weeks four years before. But Ukraine’s offensive has made steady, if slow, progress. For you to characterize it as an utter failure at this point only serves to make you look stupid. Just stop.
This post was edited on 8/26/23 at 6:05 pm
2
Posted on 8/26/23 at 6:06 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Having said that, I implore you to stop because you’re making a complete arse of yourself.
He is and he doesn't know or even care if he did know. He's just following orders like a good sheeple
Posted on 8/26/23 at 6:08 pm to RuLSU
quote:
does this guy have a track record of terrible takes?
Low-TBoy certainly does.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 6:15 pm to SirWinston
quote:
SirWinston
Sorry for the loss of your fellow “Christians” in that “plane crash” en route to moscow . I guess God had a plan for Prigozhin and Utkin. I’ll say a prayer for them .
This post was edited on 8/26/23 at 6:17 pm
Posted on 8/26/23 at 6:44 pm to RuLSU
quote:
RuLSU
Around this time last year he was posting in here for a few months that the eastern front was days away from collapsing and Russia taking over Ukraine. As part of his "proof" he referenced ISW maps saying they had to zoom out to show the front line proving that Ukraine was doing terrible for some reason. However, the maps he referenced as zoomed out were actually zoomed in and moved over. So yeah, bad track record and inability to read maps
Posted on 8/26/23 at 6:46 pm to StormyMcMan
I think he and Colonel MaGregor lead the board in worst predictions. In fact Stidham mat be worse.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 7:14 pm to No Colors
quote:
I'm not sure that we have the stomach to see Russian propaganda films of burning Abrams tanks this fall. But if they could be the difference between taking Tokmak or not, then it may be worth the price
Abrams provide upgraded crew survivability when knocked out, they are not going to be an offensive game changer unless we send 500 of them with the required logistical tail.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 7:35 pm to WhereisAtlanta
quote:
they are not going to be an offensive game changer unless we send 500 of them with the required logistical tail.
yep 31 will not turn the tide of war in any direction. but with losses on both sides replenishing losses with better MBT is a plus, as the other side is replacing with older stores with some upgrades
Posted on 8/26/23 at 7:35 pm to WhereisAtlanta
Yeah, there's absolutely zero chance that Ukraine is going to sit on the Abrams and not use them. I believe that the 200 Ukrainians training on them in Germany have completed their training and are now simply refining their skills there as they wait for the delivery. In the grand scheme of things, 31 Abrams might not be a lot, but in this sector of the front during this offensive, they could be decisive.
This post was edited on 8/26/23 at 7:36 pm
Posted on 8/26/23 at 7:43 pm to Stidham8
quote:
Stidham8
Posted on 8/26/23 at 7:44 pm to GOP_Tiger
ISW Update
quote:
Ukrainian forces have made further tactically significant gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and several Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces are advancing through what Ukrainian and US sources suggested may be the most challenging series of prepared Russian defensive positions.
Ukrainian forces now appear within striking distance of the next series of prepared Russian defensive positions, which may be weaker than the previous set of Russian defenses but still pose a significant challenge. The series of defensive positions that Ukrainian forces are currently advancing through were comprised of dense layers of minefields and fortifications to which Russian forces committed considerable manpower, materiel, and effort to hold.
Each of these Russian “lines” are layered defensive positions with their own forward and rear area positions, and it is important to differentiate between the rear areas of individual Russian defensive positions and of Russian defenses in southern Ukraine as a whole. Russian defensive “lines” are additionally notional in the sense that Russian prepared positions are not uniform across the front in southern Ukraine, and are not fully manned. There are additional series of prepared Russian defensive positions further south of the current Ukrainian advance, although Russian forces will only be able to fully leverage these positions if they have the available personnel and materiel to incorporate them into cohesive defensive operations.
A Ukrainian source indicated that Russian forces have laterally redeployed elements of a relatively elite formation from the Kreminna area in Luhansk Oblast to the Robotyne area in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian irregular formations remain willing to threaten to withdraw from combat unilaterally despite recent efforts by Russian military command to purge and suppress insubordination. The "Rusich” Sabotage and Reconnaissance Group, a far-right Russian irregular paramilitary unit, announced on August 25 that the group will refuse to conduct combat missions in Ukraine until the Russian government secures the release of Rusich commander and founding member Yan Petrovsky, who is currently in Finnish custody.[13] Ukrainian authorities requested the extradition of Petrovsky from Finland to Ukraine, where he is suspected of various charges related to terrorism.[14] The Rusich Group accused the Russian government of not meeting its obligations to protect Russians abroad by not securing Petrovsky’s release earlier, and asked why Rusich personnel should protect Russia if the Russian government will not protect Russians.[15] The Rusich Group indicated that it is likely operating on the Robotyne-Verbove line in western Zaporizhia Oblast, a critical area of the frontline where the Russian military command likely cannot afford for any units to rebel and refuse to conduct combat missions.[16] The Russian MoD has notably previously struggled with insubordination and threats of desertion from other Russian units in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly prosecuting the junior officers and soldiers of a Russian unit that complained about senior commanders’ inattention to frontline issues, following a MoD pattern of deflecting blame away from senior officers
No prominent channels known to be directly affiliated with Wagner have shared additional information on the future of the group despite speculation from nominally pro-Wagner channels, while the majority of Russian sources have focused their attention on kinetic activity on the frontline.
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces have made further tactically significant gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and several Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces are advancing through what Ukrainian and US sources suggested may be the most challenging series of prepared Russian defensive positions.
Ukrainian forces now appear within striking distance of the next series of prepared Russian defensive positions, which may be weaker than the previous set of Russian defenses but still pose a significant challenge.
A Ukrainian source indicated that Russian forces have laterally redeployed elements of a relatively elite formation from the Kreminna area in Luhansk Oblast to the Robotyne area in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian irregular formations remain willing to threaten to withdraw from combat unilaterally despite recent efforts by Russian military command to purge and suppress insubordination.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly prosecuting the junior officers and soldiers of a Russian unit that complained about senior commanders’ inattention to frontline issues.
No prominent channels known to be directly affiliated with Wagner shared additional information on the future of the group, while the majority of Russian sources have focused their attention on kinetic activity on the frontline.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Donetsk Oblast but did not make any confirmed advances.
Russian regional governments continue to facilitate the forced deportation of Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine to occupied Crimea.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 7:47 pm to GOP_Tiger
ISW is really dishonest today:
It is simply not true that Ukraine has broken the main line of Russian defense anywhere.
In this sector of the front, Russia constructed a triple-layered defense. Ukraine has penetrated what might be called the advance layer, but the main layer remains (and a reserve line after that).
This is an area with an anti-tank ditch, backed by a minefield, then dragons teeth, and then a highly fortified trench.
I suppose that ISW is trying to improve the public perception of the Ukrainian offensive, but the way to do that is not to pretend that Ukraine has breached this main Russian line. It's very disappointing to read that.
quote:
Ukrainian forces have made further tactically significant gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and several Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces are advancing through what Ukrainian and US sources suggested may be the most challenging series of prepared Russian defensive positions. Geolocated footage published on August 25 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced 1.5km southward northeast of Novoprokopivka (13km south of Orikhiv).[1] US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley stated on August 25 that Ukrainian forces are currently attacking through the main set of Russian defensive preparations along the axis of Ukrainian advance.[2] Reuters reported on August 26 that a Ukrainian commander fighting in southern Ukraine stated that Ukrainian forces believe they have broken through the most difficult line of Russian defenses in the area and will now be able to advance more quickly.[3] The Ukrainian commander reportedly stated that Ukrainian forces have entered areas where they encountered only Russian ”logistics groups" and that he expects that further Ukrainian breakthroughs in these areas will be easier.[4] A Russian milblogger claimed on August 25 that Ukrainian forces were attacking in the direction of rear defensive lines near Verbove (18km southwest of Orikhiv), suggesting that Ukrainian forces may be near tactical rear areas within the series of Russian defensive positions that they are currently penetrating - though these reports should not be misinterpreted to indicate Ukrainian forces have entered Russian rear areas at the operational level.
It is simply not true that Ukraine has broken the main line of Russian defense anywhere.
In this sector of the front, Russia constructed a triple-layered defense. Ukraine has penetrated what might be called the advance layer, but the main layer remains (and a reserve line after that).
This is an area with an anti-tank ditch, backed by a minefield, then dragons teeth, and then a highly fortified trench.
I suppose that ISW is trying to improve the public perception of the Ukrainian offensive, but the way to do that is not to pretend that Ukraine has breached this main Russian line. It's very disappointing to read that.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 7:57 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
It is simply not true that Ukraine has broken the main line of Russian defense anywhere.
In this sector of the front, Russia constructed a triple-layered defense. Ukraine has penetrated what might be called the advance layer, but the main layer remains (and a reserve line after that).
This is an area with an anti-tank ditch, backed by a minefield, then dragons teeth, and then a highly fortified trench.
Meh
People have been speculating for a while now that the first line would be the most heavily defended and difficult to breach with subsequent lines being undermanned and supplied.
Time will tell if that's correct or not but it's been a prevailing theory on the defensive lines for a while now
Posted on 8/26/23 at 8:38 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Yeah, there's absolutely zero chance that Ukraine is going to sit on the Abrams and not use them. I believe that the 200 Ukrainians training on them in Germany have completed their training and are now simply refining their skills there as they wait for the delivery. In the grand scheme of things, 31 Abrams might not be a lot, but in this sector of the front during this offensive, they could be decisive.
IMHO they would be better off using them elsewhere in a defensive position, keeping them fueled and serviced on a moving front may be a bit too much sugar for a dime.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 9:06 pm to RuLSU
quote:
Is this a joke, or does this guy have a track record of terrible takes?
He guaranteed Kyiv would fall within 2 years. He's still on the clock. 6 months to go.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 10:02 pm to WhereisAtlanta
quote:
IMHO they would be better off using them elsewhere in a defensive position, keeping them fueled and serviced on a moving front may be a bit too much sugar for a dime.
That has been my thought from the beginning as well. 30 tanks aren’t going to break through a defensive line for you.
But being able to respond and counter any Russian offensive elsewhere would seem a good use of this resource. Holding the line in a place like kreminna would be hugely valuable and hopefully keep the tanks protected and in the fight for a long stretch of time.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 11:35 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
People have been speculating for a while now that the first line would be the most heavily defended and difficult to breach with subsequent lines being undermanned and supplied.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 11:55 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
I don’t know you. And unlike you, and some others in this thread, I look at this war from (1) an unbiased and (2) knowledgeable standpoint thanks to being both a veteran and having spent the previous four decades plus in unrelenting study of military history. I do not treat this war as a football game and I’m pulling for one side over the other.
Having said that, I implore you to stop because you’re making a complete arse of yourself. Ukraine’s offensive has not exactly been successful on the scale of historic offensives like Operation Bagration when the Soviets destroyed German Army Group Center in late summer 1944 or Case Yellow when Germany used Manstein‘a ingenious “Sickle Cut” to knock France out of the war in six weeks four years before. But Ukraine’s offensive has made steady, if slow, progress. For you to characterize it as an utter failure at this point only serves to make you look stupid. Just stop.
When I first started following the thread properly in early June last year it was always interesting to see your view on situation, which back then was fairly pessimistic towards Ukraine's chances and attracted numerous down votes due to this, yet you remained unapologetic in what you had to say.
It has been refreshing to see your continued reassessment of the situation as it develops from a non-partisan perspective.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 12:12 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
It is simply not true that Ukraine has broken the main line of Russian defense anywhere.
In this sector of the front, Russia constructed a triple-layered defense. Ukraine has penetrated what might be called the advance layer, but the main layer remains (and a reserve line after that).
This is an area with an anti-tank ditch, backed by a minefield, then dragons teeth, and then a highly fortified trench.
I suppose that ISW is trying to improve the public perception of the Ukrainian offensive, but the way to do that is not to pretend that Ukraine has breached this main Russian line. It's very disappointing to read that.
It is looking like a continuation of the stale mate arm wrestle at this point if Ukraine has only pushed to the main defensive line, though I do contest the way the Robotyne line is being framed as "just" an advance line.
Ukraine has achieved some measured advantage over logistics though with this advance, along with the ability to roll up behind the advance line to both the east and west.
In many ways it looks like their timetable is going to follow a similar one to last year when they aimed for serious advances right before weather shut things down to aid them against counter attacks and compound supply issues.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 5:00 am to OutsideObserver
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 27 August 2023
As tensions remain high in the Black Sea, skirmishes have taken place between maritime and air forces around strategically important gas and oil platforms between Crimea and Odesa. Last week, a Russian combat jet shot at a Ukrainian military small boat operating near a platform in the north-west of the sea.
The platforms are operated by the Chernomorneftegaz company, which was seized by the pro-Russian occupation authorities in Crimea during the 2014 annexation. Since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine has struck several Russian-controlled platforms. Both Russia and Ukraine have also periodically occupied them with troops.
The platforms command valuable hydrocarbon resources. However, like Snake Island to the west, they can also be used as forward deployment bases, helicopter landing sites, and to position long-range missile systems.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 27 August 2023
As tensions remain high in the Black Sea, skirmishes have taken place between maritime and air forces around strategically important gas and oil platforms between Crimea and Odesa. Last week, a Russian combat jet shot at a Ukrainian military small boat operating near a platform in the north-west of the sea.
The platforms are operated by the Chernomorneftegaz company, which was seized by the pro-Russian occupation authorities in Crimea during the 2014 annexation. Since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine has struck several Russian-controlled platforms. Both Russia and Ukraine have also periodically occupied them with troops.
The platforms command valuable hydrocarbon resources. However, like Snake Island to the west, they can also be used as forward deployment bases, helicopter landing sites, and to position long-range missile systems.
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