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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/27/23 at 1:37 pm to klrstix
Posted on 8/27/23 at 1:37 pm to klrstix
Ukrainian Security Service's drones attack planes at Kursk airfield
OLEKSANDR SHUMILIN, ROMAN PETRENKO — SUNDAY, 27 AUGUST 2023, 16:02
On the night of 26-27 August, the military counterintelligence service of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) struck Russian Su-30 and MiG-29 aircraft, as well as S-300s and Pantsirs, at the Kursk airfield with 16 drones.
Source: Sources of Ukrainska Pravda in SSU
Details: Ukrainska Pravda's sources indicate that kamikaze drones attacked four Su-30 and one MiG-29 aircraft.
Also, S-300 radars and two Pantsirs are among the struck targets.
SSU reported that almost all the drones reached their targets.
Ukrainska Pravda
OLEKSANDR SHUMILIN, ROMAN PETRENKO — SUNDAY, 27 AUGUST 2023, 16:02
On the night of 26-27 August, the military counterintelligence service of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) struck Russian Su-30 and MiG-29 aircraft, as well as S-300s and Pantsirs, at the Kursk airfield with 16 drones.
Source: Sources of Ukrainska Pravda in SSU
Details: Ukrainska Pravda's sources indicate that kamikaze drones attacked four Su-30 and one MiG-29 aircraft.
Also, S-300 radars and two Pantsirs are among the struck targets.
SSU reported that almost all the drones reached their targets.
Ukrainska Pravda
2
Posted on 8/27/23 at 2:23 pm to cypher
From the Washington post today on the US view of current events:
Pretty much summarizes what most people on here seem to believe about the next 3-4 months of this conflict.
I agree that Tokmak is the furthest south Ukraine might get in 2023, and that they would then try to push east and west to end 2023, consolidating control along the P37, 401 and 408 highways, and generally reclaiming the area bounded by Tokmak, Vasylivka, Orikhiv, and Polohy. I base that on zero military strategy but on my love of geometry and the fact that area looks like a diamond.
quote:
The starting point in this assessment is that Ukrainian forces aren’t likely to reach the Black Sea and cut off Russia’s land route to Crimea before winter sets in, as they had hoped. U.S. officials still think the Ukrainians can significantly breach Russian positions this year, as they pass beyond Russia’s hardened first and second lines of defense. U.S. officials believe Kyiv’s mobile units could then move quickly east and west, confounding Russian defenders.
quote:
But Ukraine probably won’t deal any decisive blow before year’s end. That means a continuation of this grueling war into 2024 and beyond, and a continuation of the heavy casualties and emotional trauma for both sides. U.S. officials believe strategic patience remains the best weapon against Russian President Vladimir Putin, who still thinks he can outlast Ukraine and the West.
quote:
With Ukrainian forces stymied on the ground, U.S. officials believe that President Volodymyr Zelensky will take the fight increasingly to Russian territory and occupied Crimea. Friday’s reported Ukrainian attacks — with 42 drones launched at Crimea and a missile aimed at Moscow, according to Russian reports — is a foretaste of what’s ahead.
Pretty much summarizes what most people on here seem to believe about the next 3-4 months of this conflict.
I agree that Tokmak is the furthest south Ukraine might get in 2023, and that they would then try to push east and west to end 2023, consolidating control along the P37, 401 and 408 highways, and generally reclaiming the area bounded by Tokmak, Vasylivka, Orikhiv, and Polohy. I base that on zero military strategy but on my love of geometry and the fact that area looks like a diamond.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 2:28 pm to ned nederlander
That same Post article contained this bit of trash:
Even the Politards who troll this board aren't that stupid. One of the more concerning things about this conflict has been the rank stupidity of random, anonymous "Pentagon officials."
There's very little that could make me more concerned about the future of our armed forces than the brainless comments of our military leadership.
Even the Politards who troll this board aren't that stupid. One of the more concerning things about this conflict has been the rank stupidity of random, anonymous "Pentagon officials."
There's very little that could make me more concerned about the future of our armed forces than the brainless comments of our military leadership.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 2:33 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
The “Russian people” will turn on the war after Russia experiences military defeat and not before. It will happen as a result of Ukrainian victory, not as a precursor. There’s no value in discussing the impact of Russian public opinion in the war.
We just need some down on his luck farmer and musician from Nalchik to record a catchy klezmer tune about the money cows north of moscow.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 3:00 pm to ned nederlander
Here's a great Twitter thread on Russian defenses around Robotyne and why Ukraine's strategy is to breach the main Russian line to the south and then flank Russian troops at Novoprokopivka.
The TLDR is that Russia made massive improvements to their defenses in some areas, but the area where Ukraine is breaching was neglected, and the fortifications are less extensive.
The TLDR is that Russia made massive improvements to their defenses in some areas, but the area where Ukraine is breaching was neglected, and the fortifications are less extensive.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 3:22 pm to GOP_Tiger
Reports now that Ukraine is fighting in Novoprokovka. Note that this is not the town south of Robotyne with the similar name. This is about widening the salient.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 3:24 pm to GOP_Tiger
Once you get through a line of defense, how hard is it to roll up that line attacking from the sides?
Posted on 8/27/23 at 3:42 pm to doubleb
quote:
Highlights from the interview with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy:
- "We are ready to fight for a long time if we do not lose people. Minimizing casualties. Like, for example, Israel";
- "If we are on the administrative border with Crimea, I believe that we can politically push for russia's demilitarization on the peninsula."
- According to Zelenskyy, for elections in time of war, the US and the EU (which call for elections) should finance the electoral process and send their observers to the trenches at the front: "I would not like to fantasize that we would live without elections for 3-5-7 years. I don't want the government to be perceived as holding on to power. I am not holding on to anything."
Mainly quoting this for the Crimea comment. That reads as though Ukraine is already planning on not reclaiming it. Not overly shocking in and of itself more shocking hearing come from Zelensky
LINK
Posted on 8/27/23 at 3:58 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Here's a great Twitter thread on Russian defenses around Robotyne and why Ukraine's strategy is to breach the main Russian line to the south and then flank Russian troops at Novoprokopivka.
The TLDR is that Russia made massive improvements to their defenses in some areas, but the area where Ukraine is breaching was neglected, and the fortifications are less extensive.
Nice find, that was very informative, especially in regards to the quality of the defence lines on that part of the front.
Do you know if the elevation map is available publicly? Having the fortifications overlayed on it for reference purposes is excellent and the Open Elevation API is having issues at the moment due to traffic so doesn't come up on Soar maps.
I think there should be concern that this "weak spot" may be intentional on Russia's part though.
If you look at the below image immediately after the area where Ukraine is anticipated to breach there is a depression surrounded on almost all sides by heights (blue circle) further more the 3rd line south on the map looks to be where significant artillery emplacements/positions are situated (green lines and arrows). The T0401 roadway I mentioned earlier is also a means to quickly reinforce that third defensive line if Ukraine can't get it under effective fire control.
If Ukraine becomes bogged down in that area following a breakthrough it could become a real killing ground, especially if Russia shuts the door behind them with remote mines (as was mentioned previously in the thread) or with counter attacks from the east or west back towards Robotyne.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:04 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
That reads as though Ukraine is already planning on not reclaiming it.
I wonder if he thinks once demilitarized, the general populace will naturally gravitate to reunite with Ukraine....
So ( and of course this is speculation...) long term Zelensky might think he can regain Crimea without having to shed any more blood for it...
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:08 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Mainly quoting this for the Crimea comment. That reads as though Ukraine is already planning on not reclaiming it. Not overly shocking in and of itself more shocking hearing come from Zelensky
The likely solution in Crimea is something like independence or de facto independence, with UN supervision.
So, Russia would have to abandon its military bases, but both Russian and Ukrainian would be official languages, the Kerch Bridge could remain, etc.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:10 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
instead his return was a result of the Czar’s fall from power.
And funding from the Kaiser.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:14 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
If Ukraine becomes bogged down in that area following a breakthrough it could become a real killing ground, especially if Russia shuts the door behind them with remote mines (as was mentioned previously in the thread) or with counter attacks from the east or west back towards Robotyne.
A good reason for Ukraine to try and roll up the first line of defense and strengthen their position.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:21 pm to GOP_Tiger
The situation with the Russian 205th in the Kherson region (Dnipro delta islands) is really weird. Romanov::
quote:
#205 brigade.
Today we took the company commander (call sign Kizlyar) from the guys who went to the islands (LINK
They took him to the hospital and they want to attribute it to the fact that he allegedly got nervous or went crazy.
It is reported that the command of the brigade is putting pressure on the doctors to do what they need.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 4:56 pm to StormyMcMan
No Crimean Beach Party this year??
Posted on 8/27/23 at 5:06 pm to doubleb
quote:
A good reason for Ukraine to try and roll up the first line of defense and strengthen their position.
Agreed, from the sounds of GOP's more recent update they are looking to do that if it is accurate.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 5:18 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
So, Russia would have to abandon its military bases, but both Russian and Ukrainian would be official languages, the Kerch Bridge could remain, etc.
Russia will never abide by that.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 5:32 pm to crazy4lsu
I agree. If Putin gives up Crimea or that Naval base he is cooked.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 6:01 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Russia will never abide by that.
Russia will never abide to any treaty if they feel like they can gain an advantage.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 6:15 pm to AU86
quote:
I agree. If Putin gives up Crimea or that Naval base he is cooked.
He might be cooked when they lose the land bridge, and when all of Russia starts asking why they invaded their neighbor and fought this stupid war.
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