re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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No, but we can change that whenever we want. That’s just one plant. As long as the people at General Dynamics are making money hand over fist, one party is happy. And as long as some of that money is filtering down to people in Pennsylvania, so is the other. The PTB aren’t pulling that plug.

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Price per unit goes down with increased volume being purchased

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A handful of Abrams tanks are not going to be much use in Ukraine this year. Abrams are just as susceptible to mines as Leopards, Challengers, and Soviet tanks. The 100+ Leopard1s as well as the mine clearing equipment which is still trickling into Ukraine will be much more useful this year. Plus the Abrams will be the targets of air attacks for propaganda purposes. So it would make more sense to hold them in reserve until the F16s and any extra Migs arrive so the Ukrainians can contest the skies over the front. Plus holding the Abrams in reserve allows more crews to be trained on them and I would not be surprised if the USA sends more Abrams to Ukraine later this year or early next year.

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What version of the Abrams are they getting? Are they getting the M1A1 I crewed over 30 years ago, or they getting the export version of the M1A1? That’s a my question because I believe the export version lacks Chobham armor and thus is far more vulnerable than the original M1A1.

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What version of the Abrams are they getting? Are they getting the M1A1 I crewed over 30 years ago, or they getting the export version of the M1A1? That’s a my question because I believe the export version lacks Chobham armor and thus is far more vulnerable than the original M1A1.

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The original plan was to give them the newest export version of the M1A2 but that would take too long. So now they are getting M1A1s from US storage. I would have to assume those are the US versions and have the Chobham armor.

We aren’t the only place making/storing shells. There are stockpiles all over the world. And they all have a shelf life. There might be a temporary dip, but everyone is eventually going to get to reset their expiration dates.

Probably one of the weirder things I've seen on "Main stream" Twitter

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??In Norway, 42 deer were killed that passed through a dilapidated fence to the russian reserve "Pasvyk". This is reported by the Associated Press.

In connection with the incident, Norway must pay Russia 4,700 dollars for each reindeer that crosses the state border. In addition, the country's authorities will have to pay about 4.4 million dollars for all the days the animals spend in the reserve.

"The returned animals have since been killed due to fears that they may return to russia," the agency said.

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LINK

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After the strikes on Russian ships, their insurance has increased to $1 million - Reuters

It is reported that each voyage of oil tankers will cost 200 thousand more than before due to the attack on the SIG tanker and another ship in the port of Novorossiysk.

"The volumes coming from Russia are associated with higher risks, and the current situation gives insurers reasons to raise prices for those operating in Russian Black Sea ports," an insurance agent said.

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This needs to happen. Soon. Ukraine is already using counter battery radar effectively to eliminate enemy artillery pieces but imagine how much better that becomes with HIMARS cluster rockets of which we have a lot waiting for disposal. Instead of the 88 cluster bomblets in regular 155 mm DPICM artillery shells you get 500 from the M26 rocket and 650 from the M26A1 to go with the accuracy and range that HIMARS provides. Tanks are great but if they really want a quick way to give this counteroffensive a big kick in the arse then send a batch of these that are just laying around waiting to be destroyed.

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Putin instructed to use children's labor to tackle the staff shortage in Russia's economy.

Russian government and the agency for strategic initiatives should consider "promoting employment and stimulating the employment" of citizens aged 14 and older, according to a list of Putin's instructions published on the Kremlin website.

Putin instructs "stimulating" citizens from the age of 14 to work at factories and plants after the government announced a shortage of 660,000 workers.

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The Russian state is so messed up they need 14 year olds to work in factories to fuel their war machine.

If this isn't a clear indication Russia is on shaky ground, IDK what is.

*ETA -- This is real, not speculative. All primary sournces on this are in Russia, however.

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Robotyne-Tokmak axis update:

1/ Yesterday, I discussed Russian reinforcements and reserves in the South, but didn't mention them specifically. Today, it's safe to say that I was referring to the movement of units from the 76th Guards Air Assault Division from the North-East

2/ I anticipated that it would take a few days for the OSINT community to detect and identify them, hence I waited until today. According to russian military doctrine, at least on paper, 76th division is a part of their strategic reserves, underscoring the seriousness of the move

3/ As of now, refraining from additional statements, it's crucial to acknowledge the twofold implications. On one hand, this strengthens russian operational capacities. On the other, their failure will critically impair of combat-ready reserves for rapid deployment.

Lastly, I want to highlight that the division is comprised of various units. Therefore, it's more accurate to refer to "elements and units of the 76th division,". This is distinct from the complete division with all its constituent units

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Looking at the Robotyne axis, the layered defense looks like this.

The first part of the defenses is the combat zone, almost every tree line here is fortified. It's heavily mined and it consists of mostly smaller trenches and fox holes sometimes just big.

Sometimes when people talk about the first line of defense they mean the defenses along the active frontline and some other mean the prepared Surovikin line. That is why you hear some people talk about Ukraine already broke the 1st line of defense and some say they haven't.

The lines which are usually called 1st/2nd line of defense or Surovikin lines.
They have been machine made and consist of a anti tank ditch, a triple row of concrete pyramids and a system of infantry trenches. The area is heavily mined.

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LINK

Russia continues to make advances in the Kupyasnk direction.

It’s not being reported by mainstream media outlets. Russia is taking more territory each day than Ukraine took in their failed counteroffensive.

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Hard to read this without thinking a breakthrough at this point means a total collapse for the Russians.

Any chance I'm wrong?

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Greater than zero chance you're wrong if for no other reason than FOW