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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/12/23 at 2:12 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 8/12/23 at 2:12 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
It's ironic, as the performance of Russia's central bankers has been simply incredible. As terrible as the Russian military has performed, Russia's planning has been exemplary. The US expected sanctions to do much greater damage to the Russian economy than they have.
Not sure I completely agree, could you expand on your thoughts on this?
It is worthwhile to remember it took the U.S. and NATO several conflicts and 40+ years to win the Cold War. Public opinion doesn't have that sort of patience in this period of history nor do I think this conflict will go anywhere near that long, but the belief the sanctions were going to cause an instant meltdown of the Russian economy were very misplaced in my view.
Russia was economically very well situated at the start of the war with a budget surplus and a strong trade in energy resources. They thought this would provide them enough leverage to see them through whatever consequences their invasion of Ukraine would bring from the rest of the world.
This logic was no doubt strengthened by the very tepid response towards their annexation of Crimea in 2014 by both Ukraine and the larger global community, leading them to expect a short conflict where they could weather the storm with little impact at home.
What they were not prepared for was a drawn out conflict where they would be under severe sanctions and lose much of their trade in energy resources. Many of their political and military efforts have focused at softening these sanctions as the conflict has drawn on and may be a serious strategic error on their part.
While they have managed to prop things up internally for the first 12 months through various strategies we are seeing several growing indicators that the engine is starting to run without oil. This is no means a terminal prediction, as there are steps they can take to continue tempering the problem but without the cessation of the conflict and a softening of trade sanctions the long term economic stability of Russia is not looking prosperous.
2
Posted on 8/12/23 at 6:42 am to OutsideObserver
Another attack on Kerch
LINK
LINK
LINK
quote:
14:25 Exercise on Kerch bridge.
14:32 Russian Air Defense shot down two Ukrainian missiles.
LINK
quote:
Would have thought that this was just an concealment exercise if it was solely light smoke.
There have however been reports of explosions being heard and there is some much darker smoke visible in some areas.
LINK
quote:
The Kerch bridge in Crimea has reportedly been struck again today. Looming for more details. If it was just white smoke I'd assume it's another smoke screen exercise but the black smoke is interesting.
It looks like a smoke screen was deployed after an attempted attack. Russians are claiming nothing damaged.
LINK
This post was edited on 8/12/23 at 6:42 am
Posted on 8/12/23 at 7:05 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Crimean leader's advisor Oleg Kryuchkov clarified that the smoke at the arch of the Crimean bridge is a smoke screen set up by emergency services.
The bridge will be reopened to traffic soon
LINK
Looks like the attack failed, but I'm still a little lost on why the smoke screen
Posted on 8/12/23 at 7:08 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Looks like the attack failed, but I'm still a little lost on why the smoke screen
We wait to see what actually happened. One report said that a small ship was on fire and one span was down.
Posted on 8/12/23 at 7:10 am to StormyMcMan
Posted on 8/12/23 at 7:13 am to GOP_Tiger
Russia can take sanctions better than most.
There are 3 Fs a nation needs to be successful.
Food, Fuel, and Finance.
Russia has Food and Fuel. They can internalize their economy. And while a financial mess, they can survive.
China on the other hand has Finance, but imports food and fuel. The same sanctions on China would have destroyed the country in 6-9 months.
Whatever Russia is or isn’t, it is resilient.
There are 3 Fs a nation needs to be successful.
Food, Fuel, and Finance.
Russia has Food and Fuel. They can internalize their economy. And while a financial mess, they can survive.
China on the other hand has Finance, but imports food and fuel. The same sanctions on China would have destroyed the country in 6-9 months.
Whatever Russia is or isn’t, it is resilient.
Posted on 8/12/23 at 7:16 am to CitizenK
quote:
We wait to see what actually happened.
Another volley in the meantime
quote:
AD is active again
LINK
quote:
The network reports about repeated explosions in the area of ??the Crimean Bridge. We are waiting for official information.
Traffic on the Crimean bridge was again blocked, - russian mass media.
LINK
quote:
Units of the 31st Air Defense Division of the Russian Armed Forces shot down another air target in the Kerch area using two S-400 anti-air missiles. Most likely, another S-200 launch had been carried out by Ukrainian formations
LINK
quote:
Kerch bridge was opened again for a while, but now it is supposedly closed again after new explosions.
LINK
quote:
Smoke generators are back on.
ETA
quote:
The Russian appointed Head of Crimea says another missile was shot down over the Kerch Strait.
LINK
This post was edited on 8/12/23 at 7:32 am
Posted on 8/12/23 at 7:53 am to StormyMcMan
quote:LINK
Ukraine's attempt to strike at Crimea will "not go unanswered", Russia's Foreign Ministry says
Oh no. Russia might invade Ukraine, start a multi-year war, and launch drone and missle strikes at civilian targets!
Posted on 8/12/23 at 8:01 am to XenScott
quote:
They can internalize their economy. And while a financial mess, they can survive.
So that must be why the World Bank funded their oil/gas rehab along with E&P for a couple of decades.
Got it.
Here is a hint, you might have cash flow but aren't making money when you have lost much of your market for natural gas. You aren't making money when you sell oil near or below cost to get it to point of export. You aren't making money when the cheaper than market oil is being refined to take your market share for refined products so your refineries are either shutdown or operating with throughput capacities below 70 percent.
Try harder next time and maybe know something before you do.
Posted on 8/12/23 at 8:03 am to StormyMcMan
Zelensky is a dictator, change my mind
Posted on 8/12/23 at 8:28 am to LoneStar23
quote:
Zelensky is a dictator, change my mind
Just as soon as you change my mind on the fact that Zelensky is actually an interdimensional reptilian trying to stop the grays from taking over the world
Posted on 8/12/23 at 8:29 am to LoneStar23
What if I couldn’t give a shite less what you think to change your mind? Putin is a midget dictator with a Napoleon complex, change my mind. See? I can do that too. Be better.
This post was edited on 8/12/23 at 8:30 am
Posted on 8/12/23 at 8:47 am to LoneStar23
quote:
Zelensky is a dictator, change my mind
What mind?
Posted on 8/12/23 at 8:54 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Looks like the attack failed, but I'm still a little lost on why the smoke screen
While in flight, Storm Shadow matches its target with a stored image, so a smokescreen could conceivably confuse the missile and cause it to miss the target.
That said, the smokescreens that the Russians just produced on the bridge were not that extensive. I doubt it would be enough to be effective.
Posted on 8/12/23 at 8:57 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Zelensky is a dictator, change my mind
quote:
What mind?
Posted on 8/12/23 at 9:10 am to StormyMcMan
Looks like the Su-30 pilot decided he wanted to show off for his woman, or his man in Russian’s case, but found out mid flight she was giving that pussy to Jody while he’d been gone.
Posted on 8/12/23 at 9:24 am to LoneStar23
quote:
Zelensky is the leader of a country fighting for its survival,change my mind
Posted on 8/12/23 at 10:10 am to CitizenK
quote:
quote: They can internalize their economy. And while a financial mess, they can survive. So that must be why the World Bank funded their oil/gas rehab along with E&P for a couple of decades. Got it. Here is a hint, you might have cash flow but aren't making money when you have lost much of your market for natural gas. You aren't making money when you sell oil near or below cost to get it to point of export. You aren't making money when the cheaper than market oil is being refined to take your market share for refined products so your refineries are either shutdown or operating with throughput capacities below 70 percent. Try harder next time and maybe know something before you do.
It went completely over your head. They can internalize with the food and fuel.
Their O&G that they can produce with their own inputs is plenty for Russia. The outside investment made them some money, but there are enough fields in favorable environments to run their country. They will actually have to shut down production because they have nowhere to send it.
We fail to understand that Russians are used to living in economic shambles.
Posted on 8/12/23 at 10:31 am to XenScott
quote:
?? The meaning of the word "empire" will be reinterpreted in a new Russian school history textbook, Russian media reported.
According to the authors, the Russian Empire and other empires, such as the British Empire, have significant differences. Because "all empires in the world are overseas territories," "classical colonialism," while the Russian Empire is not an empire, but a "common space."
"Therefore, when the modern CIS countries were part of the Russian Empire, they were included objectively in this common economic space. They were becoming a single entity with Russia," said the author of the textbook.
At the same time, he noted that the countries that were part of the Russian Empire consider this period as colonial.
LINK
quote:
??russia is now producing Iranian drones on its own, having changed some of their components and structure – Conflict Armament Research.
According to analysts, the interior of the body has lost the so-called "bee" structure, meaning that the drone has become simpler inside.
It is noted that experts have found more than 100 components from 22 different companies based in 7 countries, including China, Switzerland and the United States.
LINK
quote:
There are almost 1,300 cars in the queue for the Crimean bridge
There are 561 cars on the Kuban side and 711 cars on the Kerch side.
LINK
Posted on 8/12/23 at 10:34 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
while the Russian Empire is not an empire, but a "common space."
Ahh… so ‘living space’?
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