re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Not sure I completely agree, could you expand on your thoughts on this?

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NPR, from December:

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The effect, on paper, appeared to be a set of measures that struck at the heart of Russia's economy. Forecasts in the spring of this year predicted a drop in GDP of at least 7-8% (and possibly as much as 11%) for 2022. Prices were expected to rise by 20-25%. Foreign direct investment by corporations was forecast to fall as much as 25-28%t over the year.

But Russia has not been brought to its knees. Far from it: Forecasters say Russian GDP for 2022 will likely fall, but only about 3.3-3.4%. Inflation, meanwhile, will likely end the year at roughly 12%: bad, but not close to as painful as predicted. And foreign direct investment? Estimates say it will fall by a mere 1%.

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Financial Times, also from December:

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One month before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s top economic confidants visited the Russian president’s residence at Novo-Ogaryovo outside Moscow to brief him on the likely fallout from western sanctions.

Putin listened as Herman Gref, chief executive of state-owned lender Sberbank, led a 39-page presentation warning the Russian president of disastrous consequences if tensions over Ukraine, then already at fever pitch, were to escalate further still.

A close ally of Putin’s since their days in the St Petersburg mayor’s office in the 1990s, Gref had a reputation for being the most liberal member of Putin’s extended circle — and for speaking his mind.

At that moment, the technocrats feared Putin was on the verge of recognising two Kremlin proxy separatist statelets in Ukraine’s Donbas region, which they believed would provoke a furious western reaction that could cripple Russia’s economy.

Elvira Nabiullina, the highly respected central bank governor, and the other attendees shared his concerns and had helped prepare the presentation. But they let Gref take the floor.

The presentation warned Putin that “harsh sanctions” would create panic on financial markets and potentially set Russia’s economy back decades.

Gross domestic product could fall by 30 per cent in dollar terms in two years. Inflation would force the central bank to raise interest rates to 35 per cent, cutting real incomes by a fifth.

Russians’ quality of life would lag behind even developing countries as restrictions on imports would make Russia struggle not only to find advanced technologies, but essentials such as medicines and food.

As Gref rattled through the potential consequences, Putin cut him off and asked him what Russia should do to avoid the worst of the sanctions, according to several people familiar with the matter.

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There are more interesting details at both links, if you want to read more about how Russian central bankers prevented the economic collapse that the West expected (and that they themselves feared).

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In regards to the last part of your post, I unabashedly support Ukraine's right to fight, but the longer Biden continues to slow-walk the equipment that Ukraine needs to win, the more I question our continuing investment.

It's already a success as far as bleeding a supposed "near-peer", but beyond that, it's time for this administration to shite or get off the pot.

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I agree. I have came to the conclusion that:

1. Ukraine may have made a strategic mistake in putting too much emphasis and resources in Bakhmut while allowing the Russians time to build up those defence lines in the south. To me, the Russian objective in Bakhmut now is clear, it gave them time to prepare and get ready in the South. They sacrificed Wagner while allowing their army to get ready in the South.



2. They were pressured into this offensive while not being given the entire arsenal needed for it to be successful by administrations in western Europe and the US that never were committed totally to a Russian defeat.

It took the Russians months to take very little ground. Why is it surprising to see the Ukrainian offensive churn out similar results? The Ukrainians were asked to take on something that NATO armies would never be required or asked to do.

I can now see the possibility of western support being curtailed and even greater pressure on Ukraine to end this/make concessions of territory and if that is the case what was the point of spending all of those billions if you were not willing to win? I think that the Ukrainian people are going to be screwed over again.

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I may pick up a few Rubles to go with my Iraqi Dinar and Venezuelan Bolivar collection

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Don't forget the Zimbabwe billion dollar bills.

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One third of #Tajikistan has moved to #Russia

According to the latest research by the Institute for Demographic Research, the number of Tajik citizens in Russia will pass 3 million in 2023.

The statistics do not take into account those who have already obtained Russian citizenship or residence permits. The entire population of Tajikistan is about 10 million.

"The Tajik government has organized working groups to assess the housing conditions of migrant workers in Russia and disseminate information among them. Five groups were sent to the cities of Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Ufa and Novosibirsk," the Tajik Labor Ministry said

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LINK

Lol you believe that shite, he just sent them to their new villas with U.S. cash, he will
get his cut

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But where did they get the money???

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I know this is posted sarcastically but bribes from people not wanting to enlist and leave the country. Hence the dismissal

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Hence the dismissal

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Why wouldn't they be arrested and put on trial or a firing squad? Just dismissed? Really

Pro Russian take on the counter offensive

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1/This will be my last thread on the current counteroffensive. In short, it failed. Contrary to some on the Z side, I don’t think it failed on principle. Some parts of it were well-thought-out and executed, but in the end, it matter how it played out. It was a disaster.

2/Now why did it fail as it did? 1st reason was sheer scope. Ukraine’s game plan was to stretch Russian forces and then succeed by punching through with two main fists. This started in earnest with three supporting efforts. Belgorod raid, Bakhmut flanks, and the Dnieper raids.

3/All of this was predicted prior to the attack.Rybar had been screaming about Belgorod+Kherson for months and Wagner predicted the Ukrainian counter in Bakhmut. Thus, some Russian units were actually able to withdraw to support blunting the two thrusts.

4/Now, this would be viable had Ukraine been able to assemble 1k tanks, 3k ifvs, and thousands of other vehicles, but that was not the case. They were still able to get hundreds of tanks of IFVs and a couple of thousand other vehicles but that is not enough for such a scale.

5/ The leaks may have eased Russian planning as they saw how the new brigades were essentially reinforced battalions in terms of strength. People on the Ru side saw this, as well as the proliferation of loitering munitions, umpks, etc and were confident.

6/The second reason was pure hubris. @TGjize already talked about this earlier (maybe he can link the doc), but they were NOT expecting this level of resistance. The two firsts were meant to break through to Tokmak and Bilmak within a couple of weeks.

7/Instead, two towns attacked on the first day Novodonetskoye and Robotino are STILL under Russian control after 10 weeks. They attacked with some units and equipment that did not make sense, including the obvious example of using AMX-10s to spearhead a mechanized assault.

8/The Ukrainians of the 47th brigade were at least smart enough to transfer out their M-55s (imagine if they were used in the Orekhov sector), but that left them without tanks, having to rely on the leopards and t-72s of the 22nd and 33rd.

9/After their initial assaults were absolutely destroyed, they switched tactics to creep further. It worked to an extent, but they lost a ton of people in the process.

10/They then made another push likely after a call from Washington on 26 July, the Americans predicted if they succeeded it would take 1-3 weeks to finish the job. It again, failed.

11/ Now, it doesn’t really matter what happens. The offensive failed, even just based on Oryx numbers (in reality they're worse), they lost ½ of the Bradleys allocated for the attack. 75% of the Leopard 2a6s allocated. Hundreds of vehicles overall. It failed.

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I can go further, but people much more informed and better versed in military science can talk about the types of fortifications they failed to clear and how the ones ahead and much more difficult, etc.

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Now,moving forward Ukraine is not completely spent. They do still have brigades that were unused and forming new ones.I don’t think they will continue throwing them at this brick wall, but will just continue a drawdown period. Perhaps they'll plan for another offensive later

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Perhaps they will plan for another offensive later. Alternatively, it is highly likely that Russia will mobilize this Autumn. Perhaps they are keeping them in reserve for that. I do not know. The counteroffensive was a failure but wasn’t what many were hoping for.

15/It did dampen Western support for Ukraine weakened military organization, but all the dynamics are still intact even if weakened. The ball is in Russia’s court. Will they freeze the line or will they go for a total Donbass victory as well as TWK across Ukraine this Winter?

16/Impossible to say, but what is known is that Russian units put in a super-human effort and may have saved Russia’s future.

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LINK

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requires a hefty bribe

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The Ukrainian Interior Ministry said on its official Telegram channel last week that it has uncovered “a large-scale scheme of issuing certificates of unfitness for military service,” after conducting nearly 100 searches across the country. In one instance, draft officials were selling the certificates for $10,000, the ministry said

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Why wouldn't they be arrested and put on trial or a firing squad? Just dismissed? Really

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On Friday, Zelensky said that 112 criminal proceedings have been launched against 33 suspects, but he did not provide further details.

The shake-up of the military recruitment system appeared to be all-encompassing. The president said officials would also be dismissed without “evidence of crimes or violations.” If they want to keep their rank “and prove their dignity,” he added, “they should go to the front.”

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LINK