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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/11/23 at 2:01 pm to Auburn1968
Posted on 8/11/23 at 2:01 pm to Auburn1968
It takes 99.21 RUBBLES (spelling intended) to obtain 1 US Dollar. The panic buying by traders of 2nd quarter 2022 is long gone.
1
Posted on 8/11/23 at 2:26 pm to CitizenK
quote:China is of little concern to me. When I went there as a tourist, I did not see any problems visually. Prices in their online stores have dropped, which is good for me. And the rest is their problem, they will sort it out themselves without my worries
China is in deflation already.
quote:
Russian Ruble is turning to RUBBLE
Edit - The Russian economy tribute LINK
Only a European or an American could write such a thing. In Russia, they usually laugh wildly and answer with the question from the joke "have you seen Apple's capitalization?".
What are you showing? The stock exchange price, which is determined by stock speculators? It's like comparing numbers in a phone number, who has more.
I suppose you're going to think I'm crazy after this. And I won't even argue, I will only ask how much gasoline, gas, milk, eggs, steel and whatever else you buy for your good dollar and my bad ruble?
I didn't look specifically for bargains, just for gasoline, compare:
LINK and LINK
the rest is up to your taste.
Posted on 8/11/23 at 2:40 pm to ruff fish
quote:
Only a European or an American could write such a thing
Posted on 8/11/23 at 2:46 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
Only a European or an American could write such a thing
Could you get beyond that sentence? Or did you stop reading at that sentence?
Posted on 8/11/23 at 3:04 pm to ruff fish
quote:
and my bad ruble
Posted on 8/11/23 at 4:18 pm to ruff fish
From your own link. https://fuelprices.ru/ (First one, second one doesn't work)
Since 1st January 2015 till 7th August 2023 your fuel prices have increased by at least 50%. I have not included type 98 or type 80 in this as they are not present for the whole timeframe.
92: 53% (32.24 to 49.75)
95: 55% (35.12 to 54.32)
Diesel: 71% (34.43 to 58.90)
Average % increase per year for each type across the above time versus since the war began.
From 1st January 2015 till 7th August 2023
92: 5.7%
95: 6.3%
Diesel: 6.6%
From 28th February 2022 till 7th August 2023
92: 4.8%
95: 3.1%
Diesel: 3.5%
On the surface it would look like yes, your fuel prices have been great since the war started, but this ignores a couple of points.
1) Since the sanctions began to take effect, Russia has had a significant surplus of oil and this was reflected in your fuel prices being relatively flat for most of the wars duration thus far.
2) Recently however there is a significant trend, since the 22nd of May 2023 your fuel prices have been increasing markedly which also corresponds with when the Ruble started it's recent slump.
So no I don't think your fuel prices are great, especially for a country with as plentiful supply as Russia. It is looking like the start of a significant upward spike in your fuel prices which will have a knock on effect to the rest of your economy - especially imports.
Am I paying more at the pump right now?
Yes I am, prices at the pump right now for type 92 are about 26% higher than they were January 2015 and roughly the same for diesel and type 95
However this increase was entirely due to Covid and the uncertainty generated by the Ukraine/Russian war. This is because where I live does not produce oil and requires shipping rather than pipes to supply it which significantly increases the cost of fuel.
Prior to when Covid really took hold in January 2020 it was about 5% cheaper on average for me than in January 2015 while yours was 23% more expensive.
Do fuel prices and currency exchange alone show if a countries economy is going well? No they do not, however they are indicators and when they start pointing in the same direction together it increases the likely hood of a trend rather than a variance.
Edit: Clarity, as usual.
Since 1st January 2015 till 7th August 2023 your fuel prices have increased by at least 50%. I have not included type 98 or type 80 in this as they are not present for the whole timeframe.
92: 53% (32.24 to 49.75)
95: 55% (35.12 to 54.32)
Diesel: 71% (34.43 to 58.90)
Average % increase per year for each type across the above time versus since the war began.
From 1st January 2015 till 7th August 2023
92: 5.7%
95: 6.3%
Diesel: 6.6%
From 28th February 2022 till 7th August 2023
92: 4.8%
95: 3.1%
Diesel: 3.5%
On the surface it would look like yes, your fuel prices have been great since the war started, but this ignores a couple of points.
1) Since the sanctions began to take effect, Russia has had a significant surplus of oil and this was reflected in your fuel prices being relatively flat for most of the wars duration thus far.
2) Recently however there is a significant trend, since the 22nd of May 2023 your fuel prices have been increasing markedly which also corresponds with when the Ruble started it's recent slump.
So no I don't think your fuel prices are great, especially for a country with as plentiful supply as Russia. It is looking like the start of a significant upward spike in your fuel prices which will have a knock on effect to the rest of your economy - especially imports.
Am I paying more at the pump right now?
Yes I am, prices at the pump right now for type 92 are about 26% higher than they were January 2015 and roughly the same for diesel and type 95
However this increase was entirely due to Covid and the uncertainty generated by the Ukraine/Russian war. This is because where I live does not produce oil and requires shipping rather than pipes to supply it which significantly increases the cost of fuel.
Prior to when Covid really took hold in January 2020 it was about 5% cheaper on average for me than in January 2015 while yours was 23% more expensive.
Do fuel prices and currency exchange alone show if a countries economy is going well? No they do not, however they are indicators and when they start pointing in the same direction together it increases the likely hood of a trend rather than a variance.
Edit: Clarity, as usual.
This post was edited on 8/11/23 at 6:12 pm
Posted on 8/11/23 at 4:34 pm to ruff fish
BWAHAHAHA, while you live in what we consider poverty and have welfare subsidized fuel in the fashion of what we call a HOOD RAT.
Posted on 8/11/23 at 5:08 pm to CitizenK
I may pick up a few Rubles to go with my Iraqi Dinar and Venezuelan Bolivar collection
Posted on 8/11/23 at 6:10 pm to Camp Randall
Rybar
LINK
Data link is in tweet
quote:LINK
?????????? Kherson Direction
Situation by the end of August 11, 2023
The situation near the Kozachyi Laheri remains tense. After the Ukrainians' sortie, shelling continues. In recent days, the AFU has landed recon groups on the Dnieper left bank several times, trying to expand the bridgehead. The village is still under Russian control.
However, the presence of the AFU west of Koz. Laheri is a fact. The activity of recon groups is not stopping, artillery and mortars are conducting a mass shelling along the river bank. Targeting is provided by spotters and UAVs.
Similarly, Ukrainian recon groups are operating near the Antonov Bridge and Hola Pristan, where they regularly transfer forces by boat. It's still a minor threat, but if we take into account the number of recon groups along the entire Dnieper, an unpleasant picture emerges.
quote:
#Zaporizhzhia counter-offensive equipment loss numbers as of 11 August 2023.
In summary: 322 UA losses vs. 313 RU losses
LINK
Data link is in tweet
Posted on 8/11/23 at 6:23 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:
Plans are in place to build a village in the Moscow region for conservative Americans and Canadians, according to a Russian state media outlet.
Lima Whiskey has already bought a lot and hired an architect.
Posted on 8/11/23 at 6:50 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
At 1 USD to 99.25 RUB as of 10:22 AM this morning
It does not mean much for people living in russia. It is more when it comes to import of goods from western countries or countries that deal with dollar (which is sanctioned anyway now).
I think that economy wise, if it continue the way it does right now in Russia, They will be back at what they were at before the special military operation. So The economy in Russia is not shite like many thinks.
I don't know what it is like living in Russia now or what it was before, but I hardly doubt that in average, the life in Russia is that much worse if worse at all.
I am not an economic expert, but I do find it hard to believe that Russia is going to fall and people are going to start hunting after live chickens in Moscow to feed themselves in the near future lol.
Posted on 8/11/23 at 6:54 pm to CitizenK
quote:
It takes 99.21 RUBBLES (spelling intended) to obtain 1 US Dollar. The panic buying by traders of 2nd quarter 2022 is long gone.
And now it’s an even 100. A ruble is worth one US penny.
Posted on 8/11/23 at 7:12 pm to TBoy
quote:
And now it’s an even 100. A ruble is worth one US penny.
Now 101 so less than a penny
Posted on 8/11/23 at 7:23 pm to ruffleforeskin
quote:
does not mean much for people living in russia
It actually drives up inflation. They have to pay for their imported goods somehow and at some point the original currency is Rubles. They may get converted to dollars or rupees or something else. The issue is if the general market doesn't want to accept rubles for other currencies they have to give more due to risk which devalues the currency and making all the imports more expensive thereby causing inflation.
The lower the Euro to RUB or USD to RUB goes that worse inflation will be within Russia. And, of course we are focusing on the USD FX rate because we are Americans, but the same trend is happening with Yuan or Rupees as well
For example China doesn't have a floating exchange rate, but they dropped the exchange rate twice this year the ruble
1 year ago 1 ruble got 0.099 Yuan. Today it gets 0.073
1 year ago 1 ruble got 1.28 rupees. Today it gets 0.83
Posted on 8/11/23 at 7:25 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
quote:
#Zaporizhzhia counter-offensive equipment loss numbers as of 11 August 2023.
In summary: 322 UA losses vs. 313 RU losses
Data link is in tweet
Does the account track other areas or are they only focusing on Zaporizhzhia? I had a look but didn't see any other ones.
By these numbers despite several poor attempts at a breakthrough by Ukraine leading to high losses for them especially earlier on, the loss rate has reached relative parity.
This is a couple of spreadsheets using the data from the same account back in mid July.
https://www.tigerdroppings.com/rant/display.aspx?sp=108976813&s=2&p=101373605#108976813
This is an updated version for the latest data.
Ukraine has seen a marked increase in the % of destroyed vehicles versus other categories (7.48%+ of total losses) with the majority of this due to a reduction in the percentage of abandoned vehicles losses (-6.38% of total losses).
This was almost exclusively from far greater destroyed rates in armoured fighting vehicles (+10.35% increase of total losses). Most other platforms saw minor fluctuations.
Russia continues to suffer more destroyed total losses, though the gap has narrowed considerably (20.23% more down to 13.55% more). Ratios of losses did not change much though there was a small reduction in the total losses attributable to Russian artillery due to higher armoured fighting vehicles losses.
Russia continues to lose a disproportionate amount of artillery, trucks, and air defence platforms compared to Ukraine which is offset against Ukraine's higher losses in both armoured fighting and infantry mobility vehicles.
Ukrainian % of Russian totals losses:
Artillery losses: 28.1%
Air defence losses: 22.2%
Truck losses: 7.27%
AFV/IFM losses: 232.5%
Russian % of Ukraine totals losses:
Artillery losses: 347%
Air defence losses: 450%
Truck losses: 1375%
AFV/IFM losses: 42.9%
Posted on 8/11/23 at 7:32 pm to ruffleforeskin
quote:
At 1 USD to 99.25 RUB as of 10:22 AM this morning
It does not mean much for people living in russia.
Actually it does. Food products is an internationally traded item. Even though Russia is a net exporter of food products its people still have to eat. Which means Russian food companies have to spend more rubles to purchase food products because their currency is weaker. That is why a basic dinner for 2 in an inexpensive restaurant or pub costs approximately 1600 RUB in 2023 vs 800 RUB in 2022.
If the Russian government enacts price caps on food products and limits companies ability to export those food products it decreases revenue to the Russian government. The Russian government is already having a hard time paying its bills so any loss of revenue is bad for Putin.
quote:
I don't know what it is like living in Russia now or what it was before, but I hardly doubt that in average, the life in Russia is that much worse if worse at all.
Even Russia's main propagandist disagrees with you.
quote:LINK
Vladimir Solovyov, a talk-show host on state television and a champion of the Kremlin, raged about the weakening ruble on his Thursday show, demanding the central bank explain “why the hell the rate is jumping like that, so that everyone abroad is laughing.”
He also addressed the country’s lawmakers. “Have you not noticed the exchange rate we have in the country? Have you sent even one request to the central bank? So these people come and explain to people what is going on?”
The most immediate concern for Russian financial policymakers is the possibility of significantly higher consumer prices. The country’s central bank reacted to that risk late last month with a higher-than-expected rise in interest rates, to 8.5 percent, and more increases could be on the way.
quote:
I am not an economic expert,
Posted on 8/11/23 at 9:05 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Vladimir Solovyov, a talk-show host on state television and a champion of the Kremlin, raged about the weakening ruble on his Thursday show, demanding the central bank explain “why the hell the rate is jumping like that, so that everyone abroad is laughing.”
He also addressed the country’s lawmakers. “Have you not noticed the exchange rate we have in the country? Have you sent even one request to the central bank? So these people come and explain to people what is going on?”
It's ironic, as the performance of Russia's central bankers has been simply incredible. As terrible as the Russian military has performed, Russia's planning has been exemplary. The US expected sanctions to do much greater damage to the Russian economy than they have.
Posted on 8/11/23 at 9:20 pm to GOP_Tiger
I want to revisit this thread of mine from three days ago:
Since then, there have been a number of reports that Ukraine is advancing in this area. Theiner, a few hours ago:
If you want to follow what's happening near Kozachi Laheri (which translates as "Cossack Camps," and you may see it referred to that way), you should follow Dan's thread: LINK There have been a lot of developments.
quote:
At this point, I think that the Kozachi Laheri crossing of the Dnipro is more than a raid. There are several hints that this could be the start of something big, and Theiner and some other Ukrainian tipsters have hinted as much. Now, to be clear, it won't be the start of anything if Russia crushes the Ukrainians in this area, but my own opinion is that it's already too late for that, and Ukraine has a bridgehead.
Let's look at a map to see why this might be significant:
If you look just south of Kozachi Laheri, you'll see that the main east-west road here makes a big bend to the north to go around the Oleshky Sands National Park. You can see it much better on a satellite photo. It really is an area with an unusual microclimate that is literal sand dunes:
Russia isn't going to be able to keep any men or equipment in the dunes, as the men can't dig, and everything would be highly exposed to Ukrainian artillery.
That means that, if Ukraine could push south to that road, they would only have to defend their position in two directions instead of three. That group could then coordinate with the other Ukrainian beachhead near Oleshky.
If Ukraine wants to do anything in South Kherson beyond some harassment of Russian troops in a fixing operation, then what they need to do is clear a large enough area of Russian artillery to enable a pontoon bridge to be built across the Dnipro.
Don't misunderstand -- I don't really expect this to happen. I personally file the above scenario under "what happens if Russia fails to respond properly." The more likely scenario would be that Russia deploys enough troops to contain the Ukrainians to an area near the river.
Since then, there have been a number of reports that Ukraine is advancing in this area. Theiner, a few hours ago:
quote:
1) it wasn't a raid
2) British SAS/SBS trained special forces secured the landing grounds
3) lots of light infantry has been ferried across the Dnipro
4) Ukrainian forces are steadily expanding the beachhead
5) russia has 0 armored and 0 mechanized forces in the area. It's a light infantry fight
6) the only russian reinforcements are propaganda bloggers, who don't dare come close to Kozachi Laheri
7) russian artillery, except for mortars, is barely active
8) To quote a Ukrainian officer fighting there: "We're not leaving."
If you want to follow what's happening near Kozachi Laheri (which translates as "Cossack Camps," and you may see it referred to that way), you should follow Dan's thread: LINK There have been a lot of developments.
Posted on 8/11/23 at 11:25 pm to GOP_Tiger
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces made tactically significant advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reached the outskirts of Robotyne amid continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 11.
Ukrainian counteroffensive operations appear to be forcing the Russian military to laterally redeploy Russian forces defending in western Zaporizhia Oblast, indicating that the Ukrainian effort there may be significantly degrading Russian defenses.
Russia’s necessary practice of conducting lateral redeployments to key sectors of the front will likely further weaken Russian defensive lines in aggregate, as both Russian and Ukrainian operations are fixing Russian units to certain sectors of the front.
The further degradation of defending Russian forces creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially decisive.
Russian forces appear to be intensifying offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk, likely to draw Ukrainian forces away from more operationally significant areas of the front.
Russian forces conducted another series of missile strikes in Ukraine on August 11 and targeted a Ukrainian airfield for the second time in the last week.
Russian sources claimed that the Wagner Group appears to be maintaining a presence at its facilities in Belarus, though the status of its rumored withdrawal to Russian remains unclear.
The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) is struggling with significant personnel shortages, especially in occupied territories in Ukraine, amid a broader power shift between other Russian internal security organs.
The Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) are likely attempting to deflect blame for Ukrainian shelling in Russian border areas onto mid-level officers.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast area on August 11 and advanced in some areas.
Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 11 and advanced in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Russian defense industrial base (DIB) has begun producing “Geran-2” drones, a modified version of the Iranian-produced Shahed-131/136 drone that will likely enable Russia‘s ability to maintain or potentially increase the frequency of Russia’s drone strikes on Ukraine.
Russian occupation authorities are taking steps to make the upcoming regional elections in the Russian occupied territories appear to be fair and competitive.
Posted on 8/12/23 at 1:28 am to StormyMcMan
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 12 August 2023
Russia has likely redeployed airborne forces' (VDV) units from the Kherson region to the heavily contested Orikiv sector in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The 58th Combined Arms Army (58 CAA) has been in combat facing Ukrainian assaults since 4 June 2023.
As early as 11 July 2023, the then commander of 58 CAA was sacked, likely partially because of his insistence that elements of his force needed to be relieved.
Reports suggest that the 70th and 71st Motor Rifle Regiments have faced particularly intense attrition and heavy combat on the front line. There is a realistic possibility that the arrival of VDV will finally allow elements of these regiments to be pulled out for rest and recovery. However, the redeployment will likely leave Russia's defences near the east bank of the Dnipro River weaker, where they are increasingly harassed by Ukrainian amphibious raids.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 12 August 2023
Russia has likely redeployed airborne forces' (VDV) units from the Kherson region to the heavily contested Orikiv sector in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The 58th Combined Arms Army (58 CAA) has been in combat facing Ukrainian assaults since 4 June 2023.
As early as 11 July 2023, the then commander of 58 CAA was sacked, likely partially because of his insistence that elements of his force needed to be relieved.
Reports suggest that the 70th and 71st Motor Rifle Regiments have faced particularly intense attrition and heavy combat on the front line. There is a realistic possibility that the arrival of VDV will finally allow elements of these regiments to be pulled out for rest and recovery. However, the redeployment will likely leave Russia's defences near the east bank of the Dnipro River weaker, where they are increasingly harassed by Ukrainian amphibious raids.
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