re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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There are credible reports that Ukrainian troops were pushed out of Staromaiorske.

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What reports were those? A quick flick around my normal checks didn't turn anything up.

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I really don't understand the Ukrainian plan in this area at all. It should be the main axis for attack and the best hope of cutting the land bridge, but there were only two additional brigades allocated for the assault, and neither of them were equipped with the best Western equipment. If they have a dozen newly trained brigades that they aren't using, why not add another one or two to ensure that they actually make progress?

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Two reasons. It’s not the main axis or they failed and know they can’t succeed.

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What reports were those? A quick flick around my normal checks didn't turn anything up.

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Well, the report that stated that has now been deleted, so I'll go back and edit my posts.

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I'm 99% sure it is DPICM they don't look anything like a FASCAM deployment to me but admittedly I have only seen them from the ground and in the visible spectrum. If it was the self-destruct time they don't all go off that close together IME it usually takes several minutes instead of several seconds.

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My thinking comes from a few things.

1) I didn’t see any Russian infantry moving through that gap.

2) the impacts didn’t look like explosions to me but rather just things hitting that dirt.

3) Looks like some armor has gone through there before and would be a good spot to put a minefield or some obstacles to prevent armor coming through.

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My thinking comes from a few things.

1) I didn’t see any Russian infantry moving through that gap.

2) the impacts didn’t look like explosions to me but rather just things hitting that dirt.

3) Looks like some armor has gone through there before and would be a good spot to put a minefield or some obstacles to prevent armor coming through.

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1. There was a squad-level+ unit, they were on the road walking toward the drone and scattered into the treeline on the left. They may have only been shown in the longer video, I don't remember.

2. looked right for grenades to me which the submunition essentially are

3. absolutely a good place for any counter mobility because it ties in well with the treelines to the left and right hard to tell from video but the trees may be small enough for armor to just drive through

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The larger point is that the Ukrainian plan has been a failure so far.

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It’s hard to argue that it has been successful.

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If Ukraine had prioritized demining equipment back in January, NATO countries could have provided lots more by now.

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How did Ukraine not know what Russia was doing to build up their defenses?

Btw, I had recommended Ukraine counterattack primarily at Bakmuth because I knew Russia had not had time to build strong defenses there.

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Ukraine's plan in the South now largely involves a hope that they can attrit Russia in the South to the point of collapse. I recently read an article that suggested a comparison to Normandy in 1944, when the Allies struggled for seven weeks after D-Day, until German defense suddenly collapsed.

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Huge difference. In Normandy the allies controlled the air and the sea. They poured men and machines into the attack for weeks. Germany was limited in men, material and had no air cover.

Russia doesn’t have those obstacles. Ukraine doesn’t have all those advantages. I think forecasting a Russian collapse before they are soundly beaten is wishful thinking.

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And to be fair, Ukraine is still having success there. If things continue the way they are going, they will retake Bakhmut sometime in the next 2-3 months.

That would certainly be a devastating blow to Russian morale, but it's not going to enable Ukraine to get its southern territory back.

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Gradual forward progress will bring the only major road and rail under fire. Once that happens, supplies dry up just like the west bank of the Dnipro. It was very slow going until supplies dried up for the Russians there.

So, its more like a heavyweight big boy football, little gains until one side of the trenches begins to tire. Ukraine is still holding many in reserve for a reason.

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That could happen, of course, but there's certainly no indication that it's imminent.

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The Allies had overwhelming air superiority over the Germans. Columns of supplies and reinforcements were constantly harried by fighters, which choked the ability of the Germans to effectively respond to movement.

It’s important to note that the Allies were able to lose hundreds (maybe over a thousand) of tanks during that period, and then simply replace them.

I don’t know that these scenarios are congruent.

I’m honestly not sure even Ukrainian high command even really knows what its overall plan is unfortunately. Not saying I don’t have confidence they can make gains but I think it’s wise to temper expectations. There just isn’t going to be major breakthroughs with the amount of minefields Russia had time to lay down and that’s before you even hit their main defense lines. Unfortunately they feel the pressure from the west to make gains to show that their aid packages are paying off. They need a shitload more mine clearing equipment and EW jamming capabilities on top of the obvious long range missiles, air defenses and modern aircraft. Without all these things our forces would never even consider attacking fortified positions like Russia has created so it’s a little puzzling why they expect Ukraine to be able to pull it off with a military not nearly as well trained or equipped as our own. This is where I think Ukraine’s big successes earlier in the war fighting with what they had is maybe starting to hurt them a little as people expect them to make huge gains with all the armored vehicles they have received.