re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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I am bad about it too but maybe if we don't feed the trolls the mods won't have to do as much work to clean up and might do it more often.

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in our defense, its impossible not to mock those goobers

Isw update

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Key Takeaways:

Russian forces launched a third night of missile and drone strikes against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine on July 20 following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 17.

The Russian military announced that it may consider civilian ships in the Black Sea en route to Ukrainian ports legitimate military targets.

The Russian military’s intensifying strikes against Ukrainian port and grain infrastructure and threats of maritime escalation are likely a part of a Kremlin effort to leverage Russia’s exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and exact extensive concessions from the West.

The Kremlin likely views the Black Sea Grain Initiative as one of its few remaining avenues of leverage against the West and has withdrawn from the deal to secure these concessions.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and reportedly advanced on July 20.

The United States and European Union (EU) reiterated their long-term security commitments to Ukraine via security assistance packages and proposals on July 19 and 20.

Wagner Group personnel are training Belarusian special forces on modern tactics at the Brest Training Ground in Brest, Belarus.

The Wagner Group may open another base in Belarus in Gomel Oblast near Belarus’ international border with Ukraine.

The Wagner Group reportedly suffered an 80 percent casualty rate and a 28 percent killed-in-action rate in Ukraine.

Russian forces continued limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City line and advanced on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line as of July 20.

Ukrainian forces continued limited offensive operations east of Kupyansk, near Kreminna, near Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City line and made gains near Bakhmut on July 20.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Vuhledar, on the administrative border between western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts, and south of Orikhiv and made limited territorial gains in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts and western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 20.

Russian forces continued to unsuccessfully counterattack Ukrainian positions on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border on July 20.

The Russian State Duma approved amendments increasing penalties for draft dodging and for officials and legal entities that fail to assist Russian force generation efforts on July 20.

Russian authorities continue persecution of non-Russian Orthodox churches in occupied Ukraine.

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Poland has already stated they don't mind transporting grain to other ports. They just won't sell it in country.

This is about local supply/demand. These Eastern bloc countries don't want Ukrainian grain in the country, because more supply=lower prices. Consumers of course will be happy to buy anything that's cheap, but Polish farmers will lose their arse on the lower prices. And in an election year ( in Poland at least) that's untenable.

I think Ukraine/ their farmers are just going to have to bite the bullet for this years harvest. Especially after 60 tons got destroyed in Odessa and now there's a naval blockade. They'll just have to accept the longer rail transport to the Northern NAto ports/Romania. Lower profits for the farmers, but at least they'll get something.

60 tons is nothing. I "bought" almost much from a Greek ship whose captain allowed it to be overloaded. He had to moved to a dock to discharge so he would be cleared to set sail. This was 40 years ago. I sold it to the grain elevator which loaded, it a day later.

Why don’t we put NATO county flags on the grain ships with full military escorts and air support and double dog dare the Russians to attack.

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Why don’t we put NATO county flags on the grain ships with full military escorts and air support and double dog dare the Russians to attack.

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It is simply a cost-benefit analysis.

OML would have a hissy trying to figure out what to do, on one hand, he would see half the world starving and on the other certain nuclear war.

I think John Stuart Mill would divine avoiding more direct NATO involvement would the utilitarian choice.

2 or 3 phone calls is all I had to actually do and paid the next day. I made a couple of K best I remember.

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 21 July 2023

In the coming days, Russia's Wagner Group is likely to release the last of its convict-recruits from their mandated service. Its Project K prison recruitment scheme peaked in early 2023 and at least 40,000 men served under it.

A significant number of the now pardoned convicts are likely to take up the offer to continue with Wagner as professional contractors. Meanwhile, the Russian MOD has taken over Wagner's prison recruitment pipeline.

The end of the scheme marks a waypoint in the history of Wagner and of Russia's war in Ukraine. The soldiers provided by Project K enabled Russia to seize Bakhmut: one of its few recent claims to success. The project grew Wagner into the organisation which, last month, directly challenged the authority of President Putin. It also marks one of the bloodiest episodes in modern military history: up to 20,000 convict-recruits were killed within a few months.

Girkin arrested for extremism. Wow. Who could possibly have imagined that this would happen?




LOL. Everyone knew this was coming eventually.

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Girkin arrested for extremism. Wow. Who could possibly have imagined that this would happen?

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I saw something about an associate of his getting pulled in yesterday or the day before and wondered if the axe was falling, especially in light of the events around Wagner which probably shortened whatever leash they were willing to give him.