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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/15/23 at 11:08 am to ItNeverRains
Posted on 7/15/23 at 11:08 am to ItNeverRains
quote:
How long until Russia surrenders/retreats based on your observations?
First of all, "surrender" and "retreat" are very different things.
Ukraine is still advancing slowly in the South, but they are increasing pressure on Russian troops. It's like gradually squeezing a nut and wondering when it will crack.
The reason that I expect the Ukrainian offensive to be successful is that I see no reason that Ukraine can't continue to increase the pressure. The US provision of cluster munitions means that they won't run out of shells anytime soon, which was my only real worry.
On the other hand, in the Bakhmut area, Ukraine is not making "slow" progress. They are making regular, significant progress in at least four different sections of that front:
- NNE of Bakhmut, north of Soledar
- Just north of the city, near Berkhivka
- SSW of the city, near Klischivka
- Further south than that, near Andriivka and Kurdyumivka
Based on the steady progress that Ukraine is making, I would guess that Ukraine will retake Bakhmut in something like the next 8-9 weeks.
As we have discussed many times, Bakhmut does not have much strategic significance in the strict military sense. But the effect on Russian morale could be severe, and the potential for another Prigozhin-style uprising would be significant.
1
Posted on 7/15/23 at 11:14 am to GOP_Tiger
Here's a very useful spreadsheet maintained by @naalsio26 showing only equipment losses on the southern front during the Ukrainian offensive.
As you can see if you sort by date, Ukraine lost a lot of equipment in the very first days of the offensive, but then they changed tactics, and the balance has shifted.
In the last month, Ukraine has lost 88 pieces of equipment, while Russia has lost 122.
As you can see if you sort by date, Ukraine lost a lot of equipment in the very first days of the offensive, but then they changed tactics, and the balance has shifted.
In the last month, Ukraine has lost 88 pieces of equipment, while Russia has lost 122.
This post was edited on 7/15/23 at 11:16 am
Posted on 7/15/23 at 11:28 am to GOP_Tiger
That video, we back to WWI trench war fare.
Posted on 7/15/23 at 11:33 am to beerJeep
quote:
Awwww biddy boy is angry this morning. It’s okay. Your repressed urges for Dylan are flaring up again and you don’t know how to handle your inner homosexuality.
First thing that pops in your brain on a question regarding Ukraine/Russia is a tranny and I’m a homo?
K
Posted on 7/15/23 at 11:40 am to ItNeverRains
quote:
First thing that pops in your brain on a question regarding Ukraine/Russia is a tranny and I’m a homo?
Tbf he is poking fun of sirwinston having two threads about finding a Trans women attractive
Posted on 7/15/23 at 12:07 pm to StormyMcMan
I’m pretty sure that dude(?) thinks he’s playing a caricature but in reality it just comes off as sad as frick
Posted on 7/15/23 at 12:33 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
In the last month, Ukraine has lost 88 pieces of equipment, while Russia has lost 122.
That’s not good ratio for long term sustainment of offensive capabilities.
Posted on 7/15/23 at 12:40 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
The enemy has the ability to withdraw weathered formations for rest and bring up fresh ones to continue the battle. But we have the same units fighting on the front - yes, they fight in defence, but the commanders who are continuously taking part in combat don’t feel much better from this.
It is a similar situation that led to the dismissal of the commander of the 58th Army, General Popov, who put forward an issue that existing personnel and equipment are not enough to carry out the rotation and give the troops at least some semblance of rest. And there are no reserves to bring them to a fully capable state.
If this is true, then it’s promising news for Ukraine. The question is can they maintain their offensive long enough to exhaust the Russian defenders?
It also lays bare how big of a mistake Putin made I’m not ordering a general mobilization at the start of the war. Putin should have studied the history of his own country. Russia historically has always sustained higher casualties their their foes. Even in the closing days of WWII as the Red Army closed in on Berlin and all the Germans had left were ad hoc kampfgruppen cobbled together from the shattered remnants of actual divisions and Volkstrum battalions of old men and little boys, the Russians still suffered extraordinarily high casualties. Putin should have known this.
This post was edited on 7/15/23 at 12:46 pm
Posted on 7/15/23 at 1:11 pm to CitizenK
The line from Sakhalin is a 48" gas line which supplies 5-8 bcm annually to China via Vladivostok with expansion capacity to 40 bcm, if Gazprom can develop the gas fields successfully.
This is in addition to the addition to the 86 bcm coming form Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
This plus their domestic production will keep them viable. They will cut power to their civilians to maintain their MIC.
This is in addition to the addition to the 86 bcm coming form Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
This plus their domestic production will keep them viable. They will cut power to their civilians to maintain their MIC.
Posted on 7/15/23 at 1:18 pm to ItNeverRains
quote:
First thing that pops in your brain on a question regarding Ukraine/Russia is a tranny and I’m a homo? K
What?
I’m referring to homeboy admitting that he’s attracted to the freak tranny
Posted on 7/15/23 at 1:39 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
In the last month, Ukraine has lost 88 pieces of equipment, while Russia has lost 122.
I'm sure thats accurate.
Posted on 7/15/23 at 2:24 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
You can definitely see more concern lately on the Russian side about their defense in the south, especially since the dismissal would of Gen. Popov from the 58th. A few weeks ago, one read only supreme confidence, and now there's a lot of worry.
Gen. Popov's specific concerns were lack of troop rotation and lack of counter-battery radar, and those are amplified by others. I saw another post this morning saying that Ukrainian artillery doesn't even bother to move after firing, because they know that Russia can't hit them back.
Putin sacking leadership that tells him what he needs to hear likely means the replacements will be yes-men who are much less competent.
Posted on 7/15/23 at 2:25 pm to magildachunks
I understand, I just think the Peter Zeihan parrot is incorrect.
Robotics will prove just as large a step change in our society as the mechanization of agriculture, we simply will not have things for people to do without massive decreases in population, our entire economic model is being upended.
Robotics will prove just as large a step change in our society as the mechanization of agriculture, we simply will not have things for people to do without massive decreases in population, our entire economic model is being upended.
Posted on 7/15/23 at 2:37 pm to ItNeverRains
quote:
First thing that pops in your brain on a question regarding Ukraine/Russia is a tranny and I’m a homo?
quote:
by ItNeverRains
quote:
Oof. SirWinstonNevilleChamberlain just outed his alter on accident.
Posted on 7/15/23 at 2:52 pm to WhereisAtlanta
quote:
I understand, I just think the Peter Zeihan parrot is incorrect.
What is the general consensus here about Zeihan? I was not familiar until I listened to him on Rogan the other day. I hadn’t really heard much before about China being a ticking time bomb and such.
Posted on 7/15/23 at 2:52 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
If this is true, then it’s promising news for Ukraine. The question is can they maintain their offensive long enough to exhaust the Russian defenders?
It seems that their new approach is functionally to turn the Russian front line into an island. It worked well on the right back of Kherson which saw the Russians ultimately withdraw rather than be uprooted meter by meter. Can it work in the south and east - who knows.
quote:
It also lays bare how big of a mistake Putin made I’m not ordering a general mobilization at the start of the war.
This is one area I don’t actually think was a blunder by Putin - at least in terms of his own self preservation. I think Putin knows he would not survive a general mobilization after his blitzkrieg to Kiev and attempt to create a Vichy Ukraine failed.
Posted on 7/15/23 at 3:00 pm to Darth_Vader
?
The side on offense losing less than the side on defense is hugely positive for Ukraine.
The side on offense losing less than the side on defense is hugely positive for Ukraine.
Posted on 7/15/23 at 3:05 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
The side on offense losing less than the side on defense is hugely positive for Ukraine
It sounds like the biggest difference in losses right now is artillery/MLRS. Russian milblogger stated that russia is losing 4:1 ratio since just before the offensive started.
Ukrainian artillery is more accurate (western smart munitions) and it appears they also have better counter battery.
Russia doctrine is focused artillery. Force the attacker to slow down in mine fields, defensive lines and then saturate with artillery.
Posted on 7/15/23 at 3:17 pm to REG861
quote:
What is the general consensus here about Zeihan?
I don't know if there can be a general consensus on someone who makes such large claims. However, you may be asking for the "votes" of the board to determine a general consensus here.
My opinion is that he spices up his takes with a bit of hyperbole. For example, I think China has a population issue to an extent but I do not think it will be halved in the next 30 years without some major catastrophe.
Consider this for any population's count to be halved over a specific period of time something like this must happen:
All the people over the median age must die
The population must have zero children.
(clearly, that is sanitizing it to 2 variables but the point is to show how extreme the situation has to be to halve a population census in 30 years)
IIRC China's median population is around 35 and their life expectancy is in the high 70s.
The population issue is much more complex for example in terms of economic implosion the total population is not much of an indicator it is the able-bodied/minded population of working age.
I think Zeihan makes hyperbolic claims that he bases on very simplistic models, but it captures the attention of the layperson which I think is his intention. Many of his overarching premises are IMO true like the pop/demo issue China has pending but his timelines and extent of the ramifications of the problems are overblown... on purpose. I think a bigger issue with China, or at least as big, is how they will handle it when other countries start taking the low-cost widget-making business from them.
Posted on 7/15/23 at 3:35 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
The side on offense losing less than the side on defense is hugely positive for Ukraine.
We may have been primed for a ridiculous advantage for Ukraine during the counteroffensive but a better than 1:1 ratio for material for the offensive side going up against fixed/fortified defenses is historically very good. Expecting much better was likely fantasy. The question is also does Ukraine have a higher survivability factor if, like I expect they do, this also plays into Ukraine's hands.
Following the war is like listening to a football game on the radio that cuts in and out and you only hear every 5th play and never hear the score. Frustrating but in the end like with most things time will tell the tale.
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