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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 7/14/23 at 8:54 pm to
Posted by ticklechain
Forgotten coast
Member since Mar 2018
834 posts
Posted on 7/14/23 at 8:54 pm to
Fair enough. Doing a little reading about it now. Pretty interesting
Posted by LSU7096
Member since May 2004
3008 posts
Posted on 7/14/23 at 8:55 pm to
Wow, you're too smart to debate. You win!
Posted by LSU7096
Member since May 2004
3008 posts
Posted on 7/14/23 at 9:04 pm to
The oil from Russia far was is primarily going to Japan LNG as well.

Russian gas supply to China is mainly by pipeline. I don't see Japan restarting Russo-Japan war by taking out infrastructure in Dekastri, Primorsk or Sakhalin
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105274 posts
Posted on 7/14/23 at 9:08 pm to
If a war starts in the Pacific, the cargo ships stop sailing. China food imports stop going in and manufacturing exports stop going out. The world would hurt badly but China's existence would be threatened. I've read estimates of economic standstill and famine inas little as a few weeks.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15666 posts
Posted on 7/14/23 at 9:13 pm to
quote:

Russian gas supply to China is mainly by pipeline. I don't see Japan restarting Russo-Japan war by taking out infrastructure in Dekastri, Primorsk or Sakhalin



The gas via pipeline to China is via a small spur off of the mainline of gas going to an LNG terminal. The spur connects to China's main gasfield and hub. Russia really needs the money for at least a decade, and wouldn't stop selling to Japan if China begged.

Supposedly a major pipeline to China is in the works but it was approved over 15 years ago and no money spent on anything. China does get gas from Kazakhstan but it is a major importer from Australia as LNG.
Posted by NOLATiger163
Insane State of NOLA
Member since Aug 2018
620 posts
Posted on 7/15/23 at 12:05 am to
quote:

I think most of us feel towards you about the same as we feel about a pile of dog shite we just stepped in. If you hate this thread so much, why do you keep participating in it? Do you enjoy being ridiculed? You don't ever post anything of substance or attempt to support your statements. This leads to the conclusion that you're just a troll, participating in the thread for trollings sake.
On one hand, I completely agree with you. On the other hand, here you are, engaging the troll. Mostly I just read this thread. Until recently I read almost every post. Now there are lots of posts that I have to skip over, not only because trolls troll, but also because people engage with the trolls. Okay, enough from me--for now I'll just have to make sure to read only posts by you, GOP_Tiger, Obtuse1, CitizenK, IAmNERD, and a few others.
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30437 posts
Posted on 7/15/23 at 12:26 am to
Mick Ryan's article on the counteroffensive thus far. Link is to his substack. It just came out so I haven't read it yet but figured I would go ahead and post it for the night crown because his stuff is usually good.

Substack

This post was edited on 7/15/23 at 12:43 am
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8163 posts
Posted on 7/15/23 at 12:41 am to
I understand your view and agree that feeding the trolls doesn't do anything for the thread.

There are times when I get tired of ignoring them and have to feed them. I am a weak man.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5645 posts
Posted on 7/15/23 at 5:14 am to
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 15 July 2023

Russia has routinely sacked commanders since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, but the removal of the 58th Combined Arms Army's General-Major Ivan Popov is notable, he was apparently dismissed for voicing concerns rather than for any alleged poor performance.

In a leaked video intended for his troops, Popov delivered a scathing attack on the Russian MoD leadership, whom he accused of, "hitting us from the rear, viciously beheading the Army at the most difficult and intense moment".

Popov's comments draw attention to serious disaffection many officers likely harbour towards the senior military leadership. The complaints largely echo those made by Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin prior to his June 2023 mutiny. Direct criticism from subordinates is likely to become an increasing problem for Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff General Gerasimov.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 7/15/23 at 7:43 am to
quote:

Wow, you're too smart to debate. You win!


Well at least you can admit it

But seriously your entire argument was you saw it through a different lenses as you were in central Asia not like you're really making a well thought out debate yourself

ETA: I lived in the ME when it went down so by your logic I am not a MSM keyboard warrior.
This post was edited on 7/15/23 at 8:23 am
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 7/15/23 at 8:01 am to
LINK

quote:

It looks like purges in the ranks of the Russian army continue.
Russian sources say that Major General Vladimir Selivestrov, who commanded the 106th Airborne Division, which is now located in the Bakhmut direction, was fired. As claimed, due to "unaccommodating character".



Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 7/15/23 at 8:09 am to
Random tweets

quote:

Korea will allocate $150 million to Ukraine for demining and will help in the restoration of schools, - announced the President of the Republic of Korea Yoon Seok-yeol.

LINK

quote:

India and France are developing a new peace plan for Ukraine, Le Monde writes, citing sources.

LINK

quote:

??Indian Prime Minister Modi, during his visit to Paris, gave instructions to break up a peace plan with France to settle the war in Ukraine, Le Monde.

At the same time, the publication adds that the plan will differ from the initiatives proposed by China and the "Global South".

LINK

quote:

The House of Representatives approved the project of the defense budget of the USA-2024, which includes $300 million for the promotion of the security of Ukraine, — Voice of America.

$300 million to support Ukraine is equal to the amount requested by the Biden administration, but at the same time $500 million less than was agreed last year.

LINK

quote:

#UPDATE: "During the first two weeks of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, as much as 20 percent of the weaponry it sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed, according to US and European officials" - NYT

LINK

quote:

??President putin needs to be disabused of illusions that russia will be able to hold out longer than Ukraine and the countries that support it, - US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, at a press conference in the capital of Indonesia, Jakarta.

The US Secretary of State noted that at the recent summit in Vilnius, dozens of countries took very specific measures to support Ukraine, which is defending its territory and trying to return lands seized by russia.

LINK

Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 7/15/23 at 8:10 am to
quote:

Girkin says Ukraine has a chance to break through the occupiers' defence in Zaporizhzhia due to a lack of equipped and trained reserves for Russia. He revealed this in an hour-long livestream. The excerpt from a 10-minute intro is below, while the 2-minute video is a short snippet from it.

"The summer battle continues where the enemy is now not trying to break through but push through our frontline and “starve it out”.

The enemy continues applying main efforts in the Zaporizhzhia frontline, and the second area where he is transferring reserves, including those previously unused, is Bakhmut. The enemy is trying to achieve a result wherever possible, without abandoning the plans to break the Zaporizhzhia front.

After failures of attacks using concentrated columns, since columns like that ended up vulnerable to our artillery and aviation, the enemy moved to the tactic of a complete mixing with the ground of our units facing him. The enemy has a lot of shells, he’s not counting high-precision missiles.

Due to this, the enemy is trying to destroy, and completely knock out the units facing him in battle. The enemy is trying to avoid mass attacks as he made sure that breakthrough doesn’t depend on the number of vehicles, whether 4 or 40, thrown into battle, only the number of burned vehicles does.

Thus, offensive actions are led by fairly small assault groups with the support of several armoured vehicles, and all weapon systems used to destroy them are located by all types of enemy reconnaissances and then struck with artillery and high-precision missiles.

[…]

The enemy has the ability to withdraw weathered formations for rest and bring up fresh ones to continue the battle. But we have the same units fighting on the front - yes, they fight in defence, but the commanders who are continuously taking part in combat don’t feel much better from this.

It is a similar situation that led to the dismissal of the commander of the 58th Army, General Popov, who put forward an issue that existing personnel and equipment are not enough to carry out the rotation and give the troops at least some semblance of rest. And there are no reserves to bring them to a fully capable state.

[...]

I will not be revealing a military secret - the enemy knows the situation very well, unfortunately. But even in the secondary directions, the staffing of our forces again does not exceed 70%. In areas of the most fierce battles, it is significantly less.

Of course, it does not compare to the situation at the end of last summer/early autumn, when 20% staffing of units was considered normal, but our forces are taking losses continuously, while the stream of reinforcements and reservists from the rear has died down.

This means that if urgent measures are not taken, the enemy, unfortunately, has a chance to gnaw through our defence in Zaporizhzhia. And it will be then very difficult to stop him, and no Surovikin’s line which is still in a pretty deep rear will stop the enemy if it’s not taken by trained, properly equipped, and experienced troops.

If these troops die in the field, there will be no one to stop the enemy. This is the main question now: will the enemy be able to gnaw through our defence in 2-3 weeks, exchanging his soldiers for ours, or not, and will exhaust himself earlier.

[…]

We’re observing. Unfortuantely, we as the Angry Patriots’ Club are unable to do anything in this situation. Moreover, I understand the emotions of our Head of General Staff, the commander of the operation Gerasimov, when “some” army commander makes demands about the rotation of units.

Gerasimov does not have prepared and equipped reserves. Simply does not. All he has is already on the frontline, at the very least in tactical reserves. Transferring from other areas means weakening them. But transferring poorly trained mobilised units who are, let’s say, covering the “old regions” of Russia, is not a solution. These units have no experience, no vehicles, no good commanders, they will be simply smashed by the enemy and no one will be able to do anything about it.""

LINK
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 7/15/23 at 8:46 am to
You can definitely see more concern lately on the Russian side about their defense in the south, especially since the dismissal would of Gen. Popov from the 58th. A few weeks ago, one read only supreme confidence, and now there's a lot of worry.

Gen. Popov's specific concerns were lack of troop rotation and lack of counter-battery radar, and those are amplified by others. I saw another post this morning saying that Ukrainian artillery doesn't even bother to move after firing, because they know that Russia can't hit them back.

In addition to those problems, however, I think that we're seeing a more general problem with logistics. And Russia is losing too many artillery pieces that they can't replace.

Especially now that they have cluster munitions, I am looking for the Ukrainian advance to speed up in the South soon.
This post was edited on 7/15/23 at 8:46 am
Posted by beerJeep
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2016
38441 posts
Posted on 7/15/23 at 10:32 am to
14 min of drone video of Ukrainians storming a Russian trench.

About half way through,(6:30ish) ole baw ivan gets visibly pissed he’s the only one fighting and returns to the bunker, calls out some other Ivan’s, throws his rifle at them, hits them, then goes and pouts for a minute in a corner fricking with his shoes
This post was edited on 7/15/23 at 10:33 am
Posted by southpawcock
Member since Oct 2015
17724 posts
Posted on 7/15/23 at 10:44 am to
quote:

It looks like purges in the ranks of the Russian army continue.
Russian sources say that Major General Vladimir Selivestrov, who commanded the 106th Airborne Division, which is now located in the Bakhmut direction, was fired. As claimed, due to "unaccommodating character".


This is how I see Putin at this point:

Posted by SirWinston
Say NO to War
Member since Jul 2014
104464 posts
Posted on 7/15/23 at 10:47 am to
What kind of incel must one be to watch 14 minute videos of random skirmishes in the backwoods of Ukraine? :lmao:
Posted by ItNeverRains
Offugeaux
Member since Oct 2007
28166 posts
Posted on 7/15/23 at 10:50 am to
quote:

You can definitely see more concern lately on the Russian side about their defense in the south, especially since the dismissal would of Gen. Popov from the 58th. A few weeks ago, one read only supreme confidence, and now there's a lot of worry. Gen. Popov's specific concerns were lack of troop rotation and lack of counter-battery radar, and those are amplified by others. I saw another post this morning saying that Ukrainian artillery doesn't even bother to move after firing, because they know that Russia can't hit them back. In addition to those problems, however, I think that we're seeing a more general problem with logistics. And Russia is losing too many artillery pieces that they can't replace. Especially now that they have cluster munitions, I am looking for the Ukrainian advance to speed up in the South soon.


Sounds like Ukraine has the momentum. How long until Russia surrenders/retreats based on your observations?
Posted by beerJeep
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2016
38441 posts
Posted on 7/15/23 at 10:55 am to
quote:

What kind of incel must one be to watch 14 minute videos of random skirmishes in the backwoods of Ukraine?


Awwww biddy boy is angry this morning.

It’s okay. Your repressed urges for Dylan are flaring up again and you don’t know how to handle your inner homosexuality.
This post was edited on 7/15/23 at 10:57 am
Posted by ThanosIsADemocrat
The Garden
Member since May 2018
9395 posts
Posted on 7/15/23 at 11:02 am to
quote:

Sounds like Ukraine has the momentum. How long until Russia surrenders/retreats based on your observations?


“Another trillion or so is needed to make Russia surrender”-Mike Pence,probably
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