re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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And in a war of attrition, numbers are the deciding factor.

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Ability to supply those numbers matters moar

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2) Ukraine is seeing a 20% difference in destroyed equipment compared to Russia (58.5% versus 78.7%). This is practically all in the abandoned category and while such equipment can subsequently be destroyed it supports the position that Ukraine crews have a better chance of survivability in Western equipment. A more precise breakdown of whether it is Russian or Western equipment surviving is needed to further verify this, but I don't have time right now.

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3) In artillery losses Ukraine is seeing a significant advantage at almost 4:1 in their favour (Artillery losses account for over 20% of Russian losses). There are also significant advantages in AD at 5:1 and Trucks at over 8:1, though in the case of the trucks this could be due to them being used in place of armoured transports for troops.

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However, the only trustworthy source, the Ukrainian army, has not spoken about it yet, so we are likely to see more conflicting messages in the nearest future until the information is confirmed or refuted.

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Russian milblogger Romanov reports that Staromaiors'ke, south of Velyka Novosilka is under the control of Ukrainian forces. Several days ago we reported that the AFU had indeed entered the outskirts and fighting was ongoing. We are waiting for the visual confirmation.




A channel connected to the Belarusian security services and other RU channels also confirm that Staromaiors'ke is controlled by Ukrainian forces. Images will likely soon appear.

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Explosions are recorded in Luhansk. There are also reports about explosions in Berdyansk.

"AFU hit Luhansk using long-range cluster munitions," retired 'LPR' Lieutenant Colonel Andrei Marochko.

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Putin about the supply of cluster munitions to Ukraine.

"Russia has a sufficient supply of various types of cluster munitions. We have not used them so far, there was no such need. But if they are used against us, we reserve the right to mirror actions."

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The coal mine at Yuvileine has been massively struck by Ukrainian forces this morning. It has been a vital logistics hub for Russian forces in the area for a long time, just outside of GMLRS range.

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There are a few claims out that Ukraine may have taken some or all of Staromaiors'ke.

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The Kremlin Loony who already killed 300,000 of his mobiks for his own deranged goal of staying in power forever is smiling telling a "journalist" that Ukrainians have no success in the counter-offensive.

The "journalist" asked him about the goals of the war, but the maniac promised to tell him this information "in private". Why would a "journalist" need "private" information like this is unclear. Most likely, because the sicko's only current goal is to keep his head on his shoulder for as long as possible.

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Rashist mobiks in Bakhmut refused to complete "suicide orders" and are now threatened with shooting by their leadership. The men hit all bingo cards: terrible commanders, no ammo, no artillery and aviation support, delays in payments, and no rotation or rest:

"Hello. We’re the mobilised from the 85th Brigade. Together with us are also contractors whose contracts ran out, but they’re still fighting here with us, now for 10-11 months.

We’d like to say that during all this time, we’ve been mobilised for 7-8 months, we always unconditionally completed all orders at fronts near Kreminna and Belohirivka, without fear.

But now, we’ve been thrown to Bahkmut to unprepared unmined positions, with a drunk company commander who led us to these positions. We didn’t reach them, we were shelled with tanks, mortars, Polish missiles.

We came to the company commander and explained that we won’t pass there. We came across employees of PMC “Hurricane” who were leaving those positions, they were the first with losses.

They explained to us that we’re simply suiciders, we won’t pass there. To which the company commander said we needed to complete the order. But as we’re the mobilised, not stormtroopers or spetsnaz, without ammo, without food, without evacuation, without vehicles, we were thrown in like stormtroopers.

We refused, only laying down weapons by the order of the Brigade commander, under threats of shooting, accused of betrayal, and threatened with imprisonment.

We didn’t reach those positions. We are now sat in Svetlodarsk, in some strange building. But as they didn’t take away our phones, we’re trying to record a video for our relatives who could help us.

We do not refuse to fight, we can take weapons again, but not in this direction, and not in the first line of defence. As I already said, we always followed our orders without being afraid, under mortar and enemy bullets.

But now, after this time, we’re simply defeated psychologically by our command. We don’t even have medals for the SMO, we were not given any payments. By the way, our salaries come late and not in full.

There’s no rotation, no rest provided to us. So that’s what it is. And we’re now accused of betrayal and cowardice forgetting about our previous achievements.

We were sent there without artillery and aviation support which are unable to suppress the enemy fire. We came under shelling, and after all that happened, the commander, answering why our artillery and aviation were silent, said there’s no ammo - “Go die an honourable death”.

But we’re not suiciders, we’re simple mobilised, workmen, just like anyone else.

We were called P.O.W.s and threatened with killing, threatened to be sent to Storm units containing unprepared people, or sent back to the zero line. But we’re simply afraid that our commanders will shoot us there.

We do not refuse to serve and complete combat tasks, just not in this direction, not on the first line, and not with these commanders."

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The coal mine at Yuvileine has been massively struck by Ukrainian forces this morning. It has been a vital logistics hub for Russian forces in the area for a long time, just outside of GMLRS range.

see @DefMon3's detailed thread on the mine from November)
LINK

We will need to see satellite imagery to confirm the extent to the damage, but it appears to be a massive loss to Russian logistics in the area.

With Storm Shadow's range, Russia will once again be forced to move massed logistics hubs further from the front.

Hilariously Russian state media is calling it a "cluster munitions" strike because " there was not one explosion, but there were a large number of them and almost simultaneously"

That would be your own ammunition blowing up Vlad.

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??This morning, the last ship as part of the grain initiative left the port of Odesa, –– Reuters reports.

It should deliver 15,300 tons of rapeseed and 23,500 tons of corn to the Netherlands. This vessel was the last to receive permission from the Joint Coordination Center (JCC) to pass through the Bosphorus to Odesa on June 28.

The grain deal expires tomorrow. So far, no information has been received from Russia that it will give its consent to the continuation of the operation of the corridor.

??Follow
@Flash_news_ua

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I decided to post a map of the Velyka Novosilka axis (what the Russians call the Vremivsky Ridge axis). I marked Staromaiorske with a big, blue circle. Ukraine is trying to take this town today.

If the Ukrainians are successful, then they will work to take Pryyutne to the west, and Urozhaine on the other side of the little Mokri Yaly River. Ukraine actually made an attempt to take Urozhaine two days, which failed, but control of Straromaiorske would enable Ukraine to pressure Urozhaine from the other side of the river.

After that, it will be fairly easy for Ukraine to push the front line up another mile or so. But Staromaiorske is still 8 miles from the big, fortified Russian defensive line shown at the bottom of the map.

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