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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/24/23 at 4:37 pm to AnotherWin4LSU
Posted on 6/24/23 at 4:37 pm to AnotherWin4LSU
quote:
Well he is on his way to Belarus. Maybe this was all some elaborate ploy to do away with Lucha and replace him with Prigozhin and finally bring Belarus into the war and invade Ukraine from the north again.
This was something that I considered, especially as the inclusion of Luka as peace maker seemed such an odd part of the story in an already odd story.
A opening of the northern front again would certainly pressure Ukraine to deploy troops away from the south.
The whole situation is a mess of guesses until we see how the fallout develops, but I find it hard to see how Russia walks away with anything positive out of this.
Edit: Early submit
This post was edited on 6/24/23 at 4:42 pm
0
Posted on 6/24/23 at 4:39 pm to AnotherWin4LSU
Posted on 6/24/23 at 4:39 pm to G The Tiger Fan
Posted on 6/24/23 at 4:45 pm to GOP_Tiger
Meanwhile, Germany has some more highly-valued aid on the way: LINK
I cooperation with the US probably means that we're helping Germany buy the Qatari Gepards.
quote:
Roadmap according to Christian Freuding (Head of the Planning and Command Staff of the German MoD)
— Delivery of 15 Gepard SPAAGs in the next weeks
— Planning to deliver another up to 30 Gepard SPAAGs by the end of 2023 in cooperation with US
— Delivery of 2 IRIS-T SLM until the end of 2023
— Delivery of 4 IRIS-T SLM in 2024
I cooperation with the US probably means that we're helping Germany buy the Qatari Gepards.
Posted on 6/24/23 at 4:47 pm to AnotherWin4LSU
That doesn’t make sense either, though.
Why not just move Wagner to Belarus? Why go through this charade which makes Russia look retarded
Why not just move Wagner to Belarus? Why go through this charade which makes Russia look retarded
Posted on 6/24/23 at 4:54 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
Why not just move Wagner to Belarus? Why go through this charade which makes Russia look retarded
I think we have to begin to consider whether Prigohzin is just doing this to increase the advance he is going to receive from penguin publishing for his tell all autobiography “Prig in a Poke”
Posted on 6/24/23 at 5:01 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Either Prigozhin and Putin were working together in a ruse to expose disloyalists, or Prigozhin is a dead man walking.
If Putin cut a deal with him and then knocks him off he will make a martyr out of him. That could be trouble. Putin missed his chance at his own "Night of the long knives".
Russia is a mafia state.
This post was edited on 6/24/23 at 5:08 pm
Posted on 6/24/23 at 5:06 pm to AU86
quote:
If Putin cut a deal with him and then knocks him off he will make a martyr out of him. That could be trouble.
A martyr to who? Russian troops dont like him since he killed a handful. By all accounts online there's a number of Wagner troops pissed off that he folded and made a deal with Putin. So I'm not sure whose fully on his side at this point
Posted on 6/24/23 at 5:08 pm to OleVaught14
Honestly the simplest explanation here is this was real and Putin shite himself.
The variable I can’t pin down is how the frick does Prig think this is gonna work out for him long-term
The variable I can’t pin down is how the frick does Prig think this is gonna work out for him long-term
Posted on 6/24/23 at 5:10 pm to Chromdome35
What’re the odds Prig was told he’s about the get tac nuked?
Posted on 6/24/23 at 5:11 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
What’re the odds Prig was told he’s about the get tac nuked?
Nah
Posted on 6/24/23 at 5:13 pm to OleVaught14
quote:
A martyr to who?
Wagner, A portion of the Russian Z nationals/radicals, pro-war citizens,pro-war milbloggers, etc. Priggy has a following in Russia and has some power. Wagner troops up to this point have been very loyal to him.
This post was edited on 6/24/23 at 5:19 pm
Posted on 6/24/23 at 5:13 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
What hasn't appeared is a reason for Prig to have accepted exile in Belarus and amnesty for his men after he made such a major fuss about overthrowing the MOD which appears to have never been part of the deal.
If the commentary is true and his primary motivation was the MOD order for PMCs to subordinate to the MOD...how did he fulfill that by having to go into exile. Does he keep control of Wagner from Belarus, I don't see it. What did he actually get? What was the point?
I think there are so many variables that it’s going to be nearly impossible to understand any of this in the moment.
It seems like everyone is operating under the assumption that this was a power play from Prigozhin, but it’s certainly possible that this was actually all about self-preservation from the start. Maybe the writing was on the wall for him - MOD taking command of his troops and setting him up as the fall guy - and this was his last resort to save his own neck.
To me it seems his ”coup” only makes sense if he was A) facing an opportunity with a huge upside of B) backed into a corner with no good options. If this was about upside, it seems like he “lost.” Which is certainly possible. If he was backed into a corner then.. who knows? He’s alive for now, maybe that’s more than he expected otherwise.
The whole thing is incredibly bizarre. I don’t know how Russia can see his actions as anything other than treason. I mean.. Putin addressed the nation and called him a traitor right? How the hell do you walk that back?
Posted on 6/24/23 at 5:16 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:sure it does
That doesn’t make sense either, though.
as the other guy said Russia is a crime family
watch the godfather and see if your opinion changes
all of this is nothing more than organized crime power plays. The Wagner dude is in no more danger than he was beforehand (which was considerable). He’s a capo angling for a better territory and better terms
Posted on 6/24/23 at 5:17 pm to cgrand
I go off for 3 hours and now they've cut a deal?
Posted on 6/24/23 at 5:17 pm to lostinbr
quote:there is no state therefore there is no treason. This is business
I don’t know how Russia can see his actions as anything other than treason.
Posted on 6/24/23 at 5:20 pm to cgrand
But the power play could have been made without all of this.
It literally makes zero sense for this to be a ruse.
I’m challenging the assertion this was all just a ploy to give Russia a reason to deploy Wagner to belarus. They could have just…done that.
It literally makes zero sense for this to be a ruse.
I’m challenging the assertion this was all just a ploy to give Russia a reason to deploy Wagner to belarus. They could have just…done that.
Posted on 6/24/23 at 5:22 pm to cgrand
quote:
This is business
100%. Mafia type business. It has been stated that Putin personally gets a percentage of Wagner's 25% take in Africa, Syria and everywhere else they operate.
Posted on 6/24/23 at 5:26 pm to AU86
exactly
and business in the Ukraine sucks
they’ve already pillaged crimea and the Donbas. Further occupation ain’t happening with NATO opposition. I’ve no doubt that Wagner had had enough and they decided to force Putins hand here. Looks to me like they succeeded
and business in the Ukraine sucks
they’ve already pillaged crimea and the Donbas. Further occupation ain’t happening with NATO opposition. I’ve no doubt that Wagner had had enough and they decided to force Putins hand here. Looks to me like they succeeded
Posted on 6/24/23 at 5:27 pm to AU86
quote:
Wagner, A portion of the Russian Z nationals/radicals, pro-war citizens,pro-war milbloggers, etc. Priggy has a following in Russia and has some power. Wagner troops up to this point have been very loyal to him.
If Prig had gone down in a blaze of glory trying to take Moscow in a "Justice March" then yes. Now that he has been bought off there's no way Wagner will support him now. Look at their Telegrams. Those dudes are not happy to say the least.
He may have saved his neck/his family, but anyone else involved ( Wagner forces and their families, Russian Army units that assisted, anyone in the Oligarch/MoD/FSB/Politicans that funded this ordeal, and the citizens in Rostov that supported Wagner with food) are about to feel the wrath of Putin.
But Prig does not care, because to him and Putin this was a transaction.
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