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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/12/23 at 5:44 pm to Hateradedrink
Posted on 6/12/23 at 5:44 pm to Hateradedrink
Who is it? I am blocked.
4
Posted on 6/12/23 at 5:45 pm to GOP_Tiger
It’s a video of Putin at a presser rolling his eyes and turning his back on shigou or whatever the frick his name is
This post was edited on 6/12/23 at 5:46 pm
Posted on 6/12/23 at 5:46 pm to GOP_Tiger
Jimmy Rushton
Posted on 6/12/23 at 5:49 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Who is it? I am blocked.
Pulled the video for you
https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1668347954531295255/pu/vid/1280x720/xk7cXXXZLiax-udd.mp4?tag=12
Posted on 6/12/23 at 6:11 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Who is it? I am blocked.
What did you do to upset Jimmy Rushton?
I don't have a twitter account myself - can you still view accounts if you log out of yours?
Posted on 6/12/23 at 6:12 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
Jimmy Rushton
Yeah, he blocked me because of a comment I made in response to a post he did about the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision. He apparently doesn't want followers who are strongly pro-life. Unfortunate, because his Ukraine intel is good. I follow him on my other Twitter account (which I use to follow several other people who blocked me on my main account).
This post was edited on 6/12/23 at 6:17 pm
Posted on 6/12/23 at 6:13 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
But war happened bc the small elite inner circles running countries like German Empire and Russian Empire felt threatened.
quote:
WW1 happened because Germany declared a general mobilization, active component and reserves.
At that point in history that was a declaration of war. Then your neighbors mobilize all their strength, like dominoes falling.
I’ll have to disagree with the German mobilization being the cause of the war. The Russian mobilization, which came first, was the catalyst that started the domino effect.
Once the Russian mobilization began, that put Germany on the clock to implement their own mobilization as per the layout of the Schlieffen Plan. Germany feared a two front war. And since Russia and France were allied, Germany saw they’d face enemies to their east and west. The Schlieffen Plan addressed this by planning a lighting strike deep into France to knock it oit of the war in six weeks. The reason for the six week timetable is that’s how long Germany figured it would take Russia to fully mobilize. The key for Germany was to have France neutralized before Russia could complete their mobilization. Thus, once Russia began mobilization, Germany, from their point of view, had to not only mobilize as well, but also take out France as quickly as possible so they could turn their full weight against Russia before Russia and its gargantuan army were ready. The Germans, again from their point of view, could not allow Russia to fully mobilize and be ready to invade Germany. Thus, it was the Russian mobilization that made war a certainty.
This post was edited on 6/12/23 at 6:17 pm
Posted on 6/12/23 at 6:33 pm to Hateradedrink
Damn shoigu better stay away from those russian staircases and windows.
Posted on 6/12/23 at 6:46 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Their Type 10 MBT may not be the best tank in the world and probably has an old infotainment system (surely lacks Apple CarPlay) but I bet they will go 400,000 miles with just routine maintenance.
Posted on 6/12/23 at 6:46 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
quote:
Fun fact: the pre WWI Royal Navy relied on German optics. It had a contract with the Zeiss company, which both parties adhered to until 1916.
Yup. Not just the Royal Navy. The army realized on Zeiss for binoculars as well. If I remember correctly they had to go though an intermediary in Switzerland to get shipments from Germany to Britain.
Fun fact Russia is still paying Ukriane transit fees for oil and gas.
LINK
quote:
May 24, 2023
Despite a brutal Russian invasion that has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians and laid waste to swaths of the country, Ukraine continues to allow Russian oil and gas to cross its territory to serve its European neighbors — generating revenue for Kyiv and Moscow and illustrating how hard it is for the bitter enemies to cut ties.
quote:
But Naftogaz — and senior political leaders — insist that Ukraine cannot and should not shut the pipelines, both to lay claim to residual revenue (although the amount Moscow is paying, if anything, is not public information) and because some of Kyiv’s European supporters are still dependent on Russian oil and gas.
quote:
Ukrainian officials say they are in a quandary. Russian hydrocarbons crossing their territory earn the Kremlin millions of dollars and help fund its war machine. But Kyiv also needs the money it earns on transit and wants to be a reliable economic partner to European nations, some of which could face destabilizing price increases if Russian energy supplies were suddenly cut off.
Chernyshov said Kyiv must uphold its contractual obligations, and the decision to end the deliveries lies with the countries on the receiving end, such as Hungary, which need Russian oil and gas for heat in the winter. “This stream has not been stopped in order not to make other countries that are supporting Ukraine freeze,” he said.
quote:
A working group on Russian sanctions, chaired by Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, and Michael McFaul, the former U.S. ambassador to Russia, published an “action plan” last month that laid out additional steps that the group said should be taken to punish Russia — but the plan pointedly called for preserving the transit of Russian energy across Ukraine.
It also called for suspending “all remaining Russian-controlled pipeline routes” taking Russian gas to the European market, as well as the TurkStream pipeline through Turkey. “End the direct supply of Russian gas to the European Union, except through Ukraine,” the action plan said.
quote:
What’s more, Russia is committed to paying Ukraine a total of $7 billion over a five-year contract signed in 2019, called a “pump or pay” agreement, which requires Moscow to pay whether it ships any gas. “So why not get the money?” Aslund said. “The contracts have been agreed with the European Union for these carveouts.”
quote:
Under its gas contract with Kyiv, Russia is obligated to pay Ukraine some $1 billion to $1.5 billion annually. After the war began, one key entry point for Russian gas in occupied territory in the east was shut down, with conflicting claims over who was responsible. Ukrainian officials insisted there was capacity to send all Russian gas through another entry point. However, Russia drastically reduced the amount of gas that it pumped through Ukraine.
In September, Naftogaz filed a case at the International Court of Arbitration in Paris, saying that “funds were not paid” by Russian state gas company Gazprom “neither on time nor in full” under the terms of the contract. Naftogaz declined to specify how much was missing from payments, however.
“We will make Gazprom pay,” said Yuriy Vitrenko, the head of Naftogaz at the time. Gazprom, in response, said there were no “appropriate reasons” to pursue the case and threatened to impose financial penalties against Naftogaz.
Posted on 6/12/23 at 7:25 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
How much of a limiting factor is their small current military
It's hard to tell. The fact that they are signaling a long-term change suggests these changes won't have an immediate impact, but their demographic issues will come to bear eventually. That might be the biggest issue, but that is an issue literally everywhere.
quote:
debt load in your opinion
Debt load is not so important, as on the other side of that transaction is someone's asset. Servicing that debt requires continued investment in the Japanese economy and opportunity for Japanese companies, something which the Japanese government does fairly well. The limitations on spending most often have to do with the ability to pay interest on those securities, among some other issues. If the spending that results in those debts is in public infrastructure that aims to help Japanese companies compete worldwide, leading to economic growth, then the return on that debt is worth it.
Posted on 6/12/23 at 7:33 pm to StormyMcMan
There doesn't seem to have been much movement on the front lines today. Ukraine made some marginal gains around Bakhmut. Other than that, here's Rybar:
Rybar isn't the only Russian source to claim that they retook Makarivka -- there are a number of others. WarGonzo, though, said that the Russian counterattack failed and added that pro-Russian accounts need to be realistic and quit putting places that Ukraine has captured as gray areas.
It's clear, though, that the reinforcements that Russia brought into that sector have significantly slowed the Ukrainian advance. I speculated that Ukraine might try to push other brigades forward to prepare to breach the main Russian line, but it seems that Syrsky is content to satisfy himself with having forced his enemy to commit some of its limited reserves. I have previously read several analysts remark that the side that is able to commit its reserves last might win this campaign.
But other than that fighting on the axis south of Velyka Novosilka, not much seems to have happened today.
quote:
Throughout the day, the fighting in the Vremievsky sector did not subside: Russian units drove the enemy out of the village of Makarovka, but clashes continue on the northern outskirts of the settlement. All other attempts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to advance were successfully suppressed by small arms and artillery fire.
Nevertheless, at night, Russian troops attempted a counterattack in the area: at the moment, the parties are fighting fierce battles.
Rybar isn't the only Russian source to claim that they retook Makarivka -- there are a number of others. WarGonzo, though, said that the Russian counterattack failed and added that pro-Russian accounts need to be realistic and quit putting places that Ukraine has captured as gray areas.
It's clear, though, that the reinforcements that Russia brought into that sector have significantly slowed the Ukrainian advance. I speculated that Ukraine might try to push other brigades forward to prepare to breach the main Russian line, but it seems that Syrsky is content to satisfy himself with having forced his enemy to commit some of its limited reserves. I have previously read several analysts remark that the side that is able to commit its reserves last might win this campaign.
But other than that fighting on the axis south of Velyka Novosilka, not much seems to have happened today.
Posted on 6/12/23 at 7:43 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Honestly I think the best thing Japan can give them are hundreds of small trucks. Ukraine has really went full Mad Max on normal trucks putting a thing from machine guns with searchlights for mobile short range anti air defense. They also put a 120 mm or 81 mm mortar in the bed of the trucks to make them a form of mobile artillery. Then of course there are the ones where they make “mini grads” where they stick a small grad rocket launching system in the bed that can shoot anywhere from 4-8 rockets. It’s not normal military hardware but these little modifications Ukraine has made to make their forces more mobile than the Russians and with hundreds more they would be able to cover a lot of ground.
What does a Chinese invasion/attack of Taiwan even look like functionally? Wouldn’t it be prudent for China to essentially bomb and blockade them into submission, takings out key military targets to the point of submission vs an amphibious assault that would be defended by men and mobile equipment?
Seems like they could just send wave after wave of drones to exhaust their air defense and then attack from the air and sea.
Posted on 6/12/23 at 7:46 pm to GOP_Tiger
My questions:
1) did blowing the dam in the area slow the advance 24 hrs
2) is Ukraine pausing to resupply reorganize and bring up more assets
3) did a probe get more traction then they expected and not have forces ready
4) is this just another feint and now that Russia is scrambling troops to the area they will attack somewhere they left
5) did weather slow the advance
6) fog of war and we just don’t have good Russian updates and Ukraine is still holding info from getting out.
1) did blowing the dam in the area slow the advance 24 hrs
2) is Ukraine pausing to resupply reorganize and bring up more assets
3) did a probe get more traction then they expected and not have forces ready
4) is this just another feint and now that Russia is scrambling troops to the area they will attack somewhere they left
5) did weather slow the advance
6) fog of war and we just don’t have good Russian updates and Ukraine is still holding info from getting out.
Posted on 6/12/23 at 7:51 pm to tigeraddict
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front on June 12.
Russian forces reportedly launched a counterattack on June 12 following Ukrainian tactical gains near the Vremivka salient in western Donetsk Oblast on June 11.
Russian milbloggers claimed that poor weather conditions grounded Russian aircraft, impeding Russian defenses against Ukrainian attacks near the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on June 11 that he had received an order from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to subordinate his forces under the Russian military command.
The Russian MoD formalization efforts are likely intended to centralize control of Russian irregular personnel and supplies to respond to Ukraine’s counteroffensive, as well as restrict Prigozhin's independence.
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues efforts to rhetorically align himself with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and further distancing himself from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks south of Kreminna.
Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks around Bakhmut.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks near the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts and made gains as of June 12.
Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces conducted limited counteroffensive operations southwest of Orikhiv.
Social media video footage circulated on June 12 reportedly shows Russian barrier troops shooting Russian forces that abandoned their positions somewhere in Ukraine.
Russia continues to strengthen the legal regime in occupied areas of Ukraine under martial law.
Posted on 6/12/23 at 7:52 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Debt load is not so important, as on the other side of that transaction is someone's asset. Servicing that debt requires continued investment in the Japanese economy and opportunity for Japanese companies, something which the Japanese government does fairly well. The limitations on spending most often have to do with the ability to pay interest on those securities, among some other issues. If the spending that results in those debts is in public infrastructure that aims to help Japanese companies compete worldwide, leading to economic growth, then the return on that debt is worth it.
Still need the funds from someone though, in theory. Japans debt is largely held by its citizens which in one sense is helpful and another hurtful as that money could have been spent on good and services. It does make them far less beholden to others though.
Imo they’re trying to turn the tide of their defensive only policy and reliance on US security since defeat in WWII about as best they can, but hypothetically they need to double defense spending from their planned increases already in a wartime scenario - that seems a strain on their finances. The world freaked out over European debt loads during and shortly after the financial crisis and Japan’s is significantly larger both nominally and as a % of GDP.
Sorry, I’m a nerd and find these aspects on the fringes of the current war, but potentially near the front of the next very interesting.
Posted on 6/12/23 at 7:57 pm to DabosDynasty
Breaking Defense:
This is the first year in forever that Denmark is going to meet its NATO obligation of 2%. As Mr. Jensen says, they've woken up to the threat.
quote:
BELFAST — Denmark could be on the way to procuring new submarines as it looks to bolster maritime capabilities and deter Baltic Sea expeditions by Moscow.
The Scandinavian nation divested its fleet of submarines in 2004 but lawmakers are actively considering whether to acquire them again or rely on “close cooperation” with “friends” to deliver such capability, according to Michael Aastrup Jensen, chair of Denmark’s foreign policy committee.
He said during a Hudson Institute event today in Washington that the submarine discussions are happening “right now” as part of a wider political examination of future Danish defense requirements.
“Denmark is very strategic, meaning that all Russian Navy vessels have to sail through our waters if they come out from St. Petersburg or Kaliningrad and therefore we need to beef up our defense in depth, which is a completely new awakening for us,” said Aastrup Jensen.
This is the first year in forever that Denmark is going to meet its NATO obligation of 2%. As Mr. Jensen says, they've woken up to the threat.
Posted on 6/12/23 at 8:03 pm to GOP_Tiger
Yes it seems like it has been pretty stagnant - There has been plenty of talk across Telegram about the counter attack by the 127th division on the Vremevsky ledge which to my understanding is the heights to the left of the river (north facing) that many of the captured settlements sit upon.
The below account is fairly representative of what is being said and indicates reserves have been committed to stop the Ukraine advance. I would expect we will see more tomorrow once accumulated footage can be gathered and put out by both sides.
https://t.me/s/notes_veterans/10267
The below account is fairly representative of what is being said and indicates reserves have been committed to stop the Ukraine advance. I would expect we will see more tomorrow once accumulated footage can be gathered and put out by both sides.
https://t.me/s/notes_veterans/10267
quote:
Reported on the counterattack of the 127th division of our troops on Vremevsky ledge with the support of artillery and aviation. According to reports, our troops knocked out the enemy from the village of Makarovo and continue to push him north, causing fire damage by air and artillery. If this is so, then the person’s confirmation has repeatedly been repeatedly ( during this enemy offensive ) successfully used tactics - our parts do not "stand to death" under the blows of artillery and armored vehicles of the enemy and are pulled into the rear, giving him the opportunity to "exit from under the umbrella of the REB and air defense". After which the enemy is subjected to air strikes, and UAVs adjust artillery fire to strike groups. Further - when the enemy is already shabby enough - there is a counterattack of tanks with tight air support to prevent the Armed Forces from pulling their air defense systems into the area and gaining a foothold in the area.This leads to the defeat of the assault units of the enemy and their retreat. The tactics are old and worked out back in World War II - "flexible defense" and it seems to be working successfully. It can also be assumed that our command does not seek to retain or return all abandoned territory, preferring to exhaust the enemy on the battlefield between its original positions and our main defensive lines ( to which the enemy has not yet reached ). And, yes, it was precisely the same tactics that our enemy periodically used when defending Bakhmut. Now he has to experience all the charms of the offensive on pre-prepared positions in the complete absence of surprise. However, I repeat once again - the battle has not yet reached its highest point and the enemy still has strong reserves ( 5-6 brigades ) ,which he can throw in battle in any direction.
quote:
Right now, the Armed Forces of Russia are delivering a counterattack on the Vremyevsky ledge. The order for the offensive was received by all units located in that area.
quote:
There is a very tough fight
Posted on 6/12/23 at 8:07 pm to tigeraddict
quote:
My questions:
1) did blowing the dam in the area slow the advance 24 hrs
2) is Ukraine pausing to resupply reorganize and bring up more assets
3) did a probe get more traction then they expected and not have forces ready
4) is this just another feint and now that Russia is scrambling troops to the area they will attack somewhere they left
5) did weather slow the advance
6) fog of war and we just don’t have good Russian updates and Ukraine is still holding info from getting out.
Those are good questions. I personally think that Ukraine can still make progress on the Velyka Novosilka axis (the Vremivka axis) without committing additional units to that sector, so my guess is that Syrsky is content to see if that can happen.
I also guess that Ukraine is preparing another strike on a different section of the front. There's been too much chatter about the Ukrainian buildup around Kupiansk for nothing to happen there.
As for the weather, this is what ISW had to say about Russian claims:
quote:
Russian milbloggers claimed that poor weather conditions grounded Russian aircraft, impeding Russian defenses against Ukrainian attacks near the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces managed to make tactical gains on June 11 due to heavy rain and fog preventing Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) and army aviation (rotary wing aircraft) from striking Ukrainian force concentrations.[12] Russian sources reported that Russian VKS and army aviation resumed intense airstrikes against Ukrainian forces on June 12 after the rain cleared.[13] Girkin claimed that the weather will play an important role in determining the outcome of operations in this sector in the coming days.[14]
There are still thunderstorms forecast in the area for the next two days.
Posted on 6/12/23 at 8:16 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
There are still thunderstorms forecast in the area for the next two days.
It's going to be a fine line between the weather being bad enough to limit aviation and drone strikes (though drones especially affects Ukraine too), without it being bad enough to soften the ground too much.
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