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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/12/23 at 8:18 pm to OutsideObserver
Posted on 6/12/23 at 8:18 pm to OutsideObserver
Looks like most of the missiles have been directed at rear areas again rather than anything nearer the front.
https://twitter.com/Faytuks
https://twitter.com/Faytuks
quote:
Faytuks News
38m
Explosions heard in Kyiv. Air defence activity reported.
1h
Explosions heard in Kharkiv and Dnipro. Air defence is active.
0
Posted on 6/12/23 at 8:28 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Still need the funds from someone though, in theory.
Sovereign debt is different because it is issued through the sale of securities through the treasury, which in this case is Japanese Ministry of Finance. They aren't really borrowing funds from the IMF like might be the case for a developing country (and which requires a different type of fiscal discipline), but rather paying out interest rates at intervals determined by the security.
quote:
Japans debt is largely held by its citizens which in one sense is helpful and another hurtful as that money could have been spent on good and services.
But the debt, when it matures, will make it back into the economy, as these types of securities are used to buttress pension and retirement plans. And if the result of deficit spending is public infrastructure projects which help result in economic growth, there is both immediate and long-term benefits.
quote:
It does make them far less beholden to others though.
Sovereign debt really doesn't make you beholden to others, as in the case of a possible default, governments aren't really subject to legal enforcement by creditors. What generally happens is governments lose access to international capital markets, which usually compounds the debt crisis because governments in those situations need to negotiate settlements while also continuing to run services.
Sovereign debt is just a financial instrument that is effectively an investment vehicle for governments. Holders of that debt buy that security because they believe they will receive the agreed upon interest payment upon the maturation of the bond.
quote:
hypothetically they need to double defense spending from their planned increases already in a wartime scenario - that seems a strain on their finances. The world freaked out over European debt loads during and shortly after the financial crisis and Japan’s is significantly larger both nominally and as a % of GDP.
The issues with Japan have to do with deflation, specifically debt deflation, which started what is called the Lost Decade, which is the period after the collapse of the Japanese stock market in the '91 when an asset bubble burst, with the result being that the country saw a deflationary spiral. When combined with low birth rates and dampened consumer spending, the country saw long periods of low growth. Deflation has been the primary issue that the Bank of Japan has had to deal with, and according to some economists, what abated the Lost Decade was a long period of quantitative easing. The Japanese were borrowing at high levels before QE began, and their strategy has been to invest that debt into ensuring some level of economic growth.
The other thing that helps Japan is that it has several trillion in assets it could sell off in the case of a default on its interest obligations, as well as being the largest owner of US securities. Given some oddities of Japanese governance, a large portion of the public debt is owed between government offices, so the real level of debt is much lower than the amount reported by the World Bank.
There are plenty of potential problems, but the essential one is not debt, but what to do about Japanificiation, namely the continued debt deflationary spiral caused by lower consumer demand, private capital hesitancy to invest heavily in such a dampened market, and a birth rate which might see Japan drop below 100 million people by the end of the century. Immigration is a easy solution to drive up demand, but the Japanese have been a historically closed society, so much so that even Japanese who were born abroad have difficulties integrating into the country. That said, there has been a large increase in foreigners residing in Japan since the 90's, up from 300,000 in the mid-90's to around 3 million now. There were calls under Abe for higher levels of immigration as well, which may eventually happen.
Posted on 6/12/23 at 8:41 pm to GOP_Tiger
Reuters:
France to intensify arms delivery to help Ukraine counter-offensive -Macron
It should be noted that the next Ramstein meeting is on Thursday. It's expected to focus on aviation, and Reznikov is bringing the head of the Ukrainian air force to the meeting.
France to intensify arms delivery to help Ukraine counter-offensive -Macron
quote:
PARIS, June 12 (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday said that a long-anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive against occupying Russian forces had started, and he promised more military aid to the Kyiv government.
At a press conference after a meeting with Polish and German leaders, the so-called Weimar Triangle, Macron said: "We have done everything to help it."
"We have intensified the delivery of ammunitions, weapons and armed vehicles ... We'll continue in coming days and weeks," said Macron, who in recent days said he had spoken with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy confirming the start of the counter-offensive.
Asked whether Germany agreed Ukraine needed to be given security guarantees at a NATO summit in July, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said: "It's clear we need this and we need it in a very concrete way," he said.
The three-way meeting in Paris was meant to send a signal of unity between eastern and western Europe, after Warsaw took on a major logistical and diplomatic role in helping Ukraine, while often castigating German and French leaders for being too slow.
It should be noted that the next Ramstein meeting is on Thursday. It's expected to focus on aviation, and Reznikov is bringing the head of the Ukrainian air force to the meeting.
Posted on 6/12/23 at 8:48 pm to Obtuse1
Putin looks like he is going to give him water to toast with at the next meal.
Posted on 6/12/23 at 8:56 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
This is the first year in forever that Denmark is going to meet its NATO obligation of 2%. As Mr. Jensen says, they've woken up to the threat.
Putin stepped in the honey bucket. He had gotten away with aggression in Georgia and Crimea, but grossly underestimated Ukraine's will and ability to fight. Ukraine has been preparing to for this since 2014.
Ukraine has a long memory and Moscow murdered millions within living memory.
This post was edited on 6/12/23 at 8:58 pm
Posted on 6/12/23 at 9:23 pm to Obtuse1
That has to be satire, right?Posted on 6/12/23 at 9:25 pm to StormyMcMan
Oh Gazprom pays in natural gas that Ukraine takes. There is not SCADA control valves or meters, everything is still analog with hand turned valves.
Posted on 6/12/23 at 10:58 pm to DabosDynasty
The Chinese would have to attempt a huge seaborne assault for Taiwan eventually but they would no doubt start by using their missiles both from land and on their ships to hit military targets like airfields, command buildings and ammunition dumps as well as fuel storage areas. This would coincide with China using their Air Force to hit targets much like their land/ship missiles would and they would try to neutralize Taiwan’s Air Force. Then and only then could they think about assaulting from the sea because if Taiwan still had good aviation and missile stocks they would annihilate tens of thousands of Chinese soldiers before they ever stepped foot on dry land. The other huge question is would China attack our base in Guam before an attack on Taiwan. That would open up a whole new can of worms. I’m the end I don’t think China will or can invade Taiwan. The world needs Taiwan’s resources and losing them to the control of China would be devastating economically so if you think Ukraine has received support it wouldn’t even hold a candle to what the world would do to keep Taiwan independent of China.
Posted on 6/13/23 at 12:40 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
China
One thing I don't see noted often about the Chinese military is that it has been 44 years since the Sino-Vietnamese War which means they have effectively zero combat experience in the entire military. Even though we had a handful of Vietnam vets on the ground during OJS it was an unmitigated goat frick in many respects. Sure the missions were accomplished but mainly because the Panamanians were more fricked than we were. Time and time again high-tech weaponry has been proven steller at the proving grounds and not worth much in the field. I would never underestimate any enemy on the ground but on my sofa I can say I don't lose much sleep worried about China's military.
Posted on 6/13/23 at 12:45 am to Obtuse1
I truly do not understand Russia's strategy with these missile attacks on random Ukrainian population centers. What good does hitting an apartment building do for Russia? Why not attack military targets instead?
These attacks just increase international support for Ukraine.
Can anyone offer an explanation?
Video at link
https://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/status/1668456855230660609
More video at this link
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1668494571381170177
These attacks just increase international support for Ukraine.
Can anyone offer an explanation?
Video at link
https://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/status/1668456855230660609
quote:
Devastating Russian strikes on residential areas in Kryvyi Rih have destroyed apartment buildings while people inside were sleeping. There are casualties, but the exact numbers are not yet known as burning rubble makes it impossible to rescue people.
More video at this link
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1668494571381170177
quote:
In Kryvyi Rih a high rise residential building was hit during a missile attack overnight… 25 people were wounded, 3 have died. There are still people under the rubble.
Terrorists.
This post was edited on 6/13/23 at 12:47 am
Posted on 6/13/23 at 12:56 am to Chromdome35
Video of the liberation of Makarivka. Multiple MRAPS with a tank in support
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1668490204695482368
More video of the same action and coordinates for google maps/earth
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1668495418961821698
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1668490204695482368
quote:
Ukrainian forces from the 35th Marine Brigade released footage of the liberation of Makarivka, Donetsk Oblast.
More video of the same action and coordinates for google maps/earth
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1668495418961821698
quote:
A column of Ukrainian MRAPs, lead by a single tank, enter the western part of the town at (47.780998, 36.794930)
Posted on 6/13/23 at 12:57 am to Chromdome35
They are like a child’s temper tantrum
Posted on 6/13/23 at 1:08 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I truly do not understand Russia's strategy with these missile attacks on random Ukrainian population centers. What good does hitting an apartment building do for Russia? Why not attack military targets instead?
These attacks just increase international support for Ukraine.
Can anyone offer an explanation?
If this was the actual target I am similarly bemused by the strategy.
The only thing I can surmise if this was intended is that Russia is lashing out in any way it can to try and mitigate growing pressure, be it on the frontline or at home, after all it was Russia day yesterday so maybe they wanted to assert themselves.
It should have been clear though that after they didn't break them over the Winter with their power grid strikes that Ukraine is not going to be cowed by this sort of targeting strategy.
Now given that it is war there are a host of other variables that could have caused this - AD interception, targeting failures, mismatched dishwasher chips, faulty intel, etc. Be that as it may though, it wouldn't have happened if Russia had not launched them.
Posted on 6/13/23 at 1:10 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I truly do not understand Russia's strategy with these missile attacks on random Ukrainian population centers. What good does hitting an apartment building do for Russia? Why not attack military targets instead?
quote:
Beneath the veneer of Russian military “tactics”, you see the stupid leer of destruction for the sake of it. The Kremlin can’t create, so all that is left is to destroy. Not in some pseudo-glorious self-immolation, the people behind atrocities are petty cowards, but more like a loser smearing their faeces over life. In Russia’s wars the very senselessness seems to be the sense.
LINK
Posted on 6/13/23 at 1:12 am to Chromdome35
A new thread from Tatarigami_UA
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1668482100050141184
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1668482100050141184
quote:
1/17 You don't hear as much about the advancement of regular russian brigades, but you see reports about Wagner advancing in certain areas. While it's true that it's achieved due to extrajudicial executions and irrational losses, the situation is a little bit more complex
2/17 One of the biggest threats posed by Wagner is that they have much more freedom in assaults than regular forces, whose officers must follow rules defined by military regulations, based on the soviet military doctrine. Let's take a closer look at Wagner's tactics.
3/17 Let's imagine a situation where a Ukrainian squad, possibly 9 people, is tasked with securing a tree line in trenches - a quite common occurrence in this war.
4/17 Before the attack, the enemy dispatches a quadcopter to gather intelligence about defenders - the number of people, their armament, trench, and dugout disposition. Based on this information, wagnerites would adjust the number of assault teams, to have a numerical advantage.
5/17 Once targets are determined, the enemy artillery or mortars shell trenches, sometimes for a few days, suppressing the ability of defenders to fight or observe. Covered by this fire, the assault teams start moving closer to the trenches without any significant resistance.
6/17 Wagnerites usually break down into small assault teams consisting of 3-4 people. The first team is usually led by a "scout" who is tasked to observe and locate mined areas ahead. He is followed by two regular riflemen and a machine gunner.
7/17 At the same time, they are usually also covered by the "support" team, armed either with mortar, or automatic grenade launchers such as AGS-17 or AGS-30. Given that not every assault group has one, they can be replaced with a few soldiers armed with RPG-7s instead.
8/17 Once the artillery fire ends, before defenders can take any measures, the support team armed with AGS or RPGs and a machine gun, opens suppressive fire, allowing assault teams to move even closer to trenches. They usually try to engage and outflank the defenders.
9/17 Once close enough to the trenches, the enemy uses hand grenades to cause damage and then assaults the trenches. I would like to emphasize that this is a generalization, because situations may vary, so treat this just as a general summary.
10/17 Are there ways to fight this? Yes, there are plenty of ways to counter such assaults with minimal losses, however, I would like to focus on what mistakes should be avoided.
11/17 Since I haven't been to the Bakhmut area myself, I spoke to multiple people from a soldier to a lieutenant colonel instead. To exclude personal anecdotes, I included only the most commonly mentioned issues that hinder the ability of units to defend positions effectively:
12/17 Some units are not allowed to determine armament for themselves based on their needs. Their resources are limited based on regulations, papers, and bureaucracy rather than tactical needs. It doesn’t work from the bottom to the top – mostly from the top to the bottom.
13/17 Insufficient freedom to select defensive positions. Positions are selected by officers in a remote command center, rather than by units on the ground. Officers might avoid challenging ridiculous orders from the CC, fearing repercussions, resulting in a lack of initiative.
14/17 Some senior officers remotely micromanage and intervene in the processes on a platoon, company, and battalion level, often worsening the situation significantly.
15/17 Immobile units limited in weapons, tied to specific positions, deprived of maneuver, and having little leeway in actions are much easier targets for wagnerite cannon-fodder assaults, which are designed to fight against such soviet-styled defenses.
16/17 In the areas where these mistakes were avoided, units performed greatly. While the Ukrainian army improved a lot, it's not always possible to turn a colonel or a general with 30 years of soviet-style experience into a NATO-like commander by performing a 3-month course.
17/17 As Bakhmut experience shows, the system needs to be less top-to-bottom but bottom-to-top. The initiative should be encouraged. Centralized, soviet-style management should be replaced with a NATO-style leadership. To win, we need to be flexible, and adapt soon as possible
This post was edited on 6/13/23 at 1:14 am
Posted on 6/13/23 at 1:13 am to OutsideObserver
Another new twitter account that I ran across in my wanderings - gives a very good breakdown of the current Velyka Novosilka axis attack - Note: It appears he has also claimed the Russian counter attack as repelled but it is not clear if this indicates the one carried out by the 137th division earlier today or the ones on previous days.
https://twitter.com/jrt_191/status/1668416817029586944
https://twitter.com/jrt_191/status/1668416817029586944
quote:
Hey everybody, since the start of the offensive I have been compiling data on the different axis of advance. Cross referencing Project Owl's, militaryland's, JominiW's latest, LiveUAmap, Geoconfirmed, Bradyafrick I'm ready to release this
quote:
Within the greater Velyka Novosilka axis there are three main thrusts: one from the north going down both banks of the Mokri Yali River, one from the northwest, and and one crossing the Shaitanka River.
quote:
Down the center I assess to be the main thrust with the 68th Jag BDE on the right bank and the and a multi BAT force from the 35th Marines and 129th Terr Def on the left clearing settlements there. This is supported by the 47 Art. BDE and the 4th Tank BDE on Flanking the 68th JAG
quote:
From the northwest there were two actions one coming from further north composed of the 23rd OMBR and the 110th Terr Def BDE further south was a force that I could not identify but given previous forces in the area I assess to be likely BDE or + and composed of Terr Def Elements.
quote:
From the northeast holding down the flanks was a river crossing over the Shaitanka by the 37 Marine BDE which liberated the town of Novodonets'ke and seems to be holding for now.
quote:
Russians attempted a counterattack against the central advance of this axis but were rather unceremoniously repelled by Ukrainian forces suffering losses in the process.
This post was edited on 6/13/23 at 1:21 am
Posted on 6/13/23 at 1:20 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I truly do not understand Russia's strategy with these missile attacks on random Ukrainian population centers. What good does hitting an apartment building do for Russia? Why not attack military targets instead?
Let me be a little cynical and a lot Russophobe and posit that they are using munitions that they don't have confidence in being able to hit a specific military target. Kiev for example is roughly 300 square miles it is sorta hard to miss that. If you listen to the talking heads like Solovyov, Olga, and Margarita they took great joy in the pain they were inflicting back in the blackout days (which ran out of steam BTW). Any pain is better than no pain so random horseshoe toss attacks on civilians are better than a crater in a watermelon field. I also think Russia sees the West as so much behind Ukraine that it isn't possible to strengthen our will.
Posted on 6/13/23 at 1:34 am to DabosDynasty
quote:
Wouldn’t it be prudent for China to essentially bomb and blockade them into submission, takings out key military targets to the point of submission vs an amphibious assault that would be defended by men and mobile equipment?
No. A blockade takes time, and they really don't want to see what ends faster, the Taiwanese state or the Chinese state, when the US Navy shuts off access to the Indian Ocean for energy transit.
Posted on 6/13/23 at 1:54 am to BoardReader
quote:
No. A blockade takes time, and they really don't want to see what ends faster, the Taiwanese state or the Chinese state, when the US Navy shuts off access to the Indian Ocean for energy transit
I still think step one of a Chinese activity (if undertaken) is a blockade, they have enough of a numbers advantage to at least try it.
The question is, is Xi a dictator, or is he Chinese?
If he's Chinese, than he doesn't mind if reunification happens in his lifetime, so long as he's confident he's remembered in Chiense culture as bringing China closer to reunification. If the timing isn't right, it's not an issue if the attempt is in 2050 or 2100.
If he's a dictator, than reunification (or its attempt) HAS to happen in his lifetime, and the timing of which will be dependent on local and global factors, but will become increasingly pressing over time.
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