re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

I have to admit that this is a very good-looking decoy.



Here's what it looked like after it was hit by a Russian Lancet:

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Stiham8

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To be fair to him, he did come back and try to defend his Eastern Front is collapsing comments. It's after it was pointed out that he was misreading map scales in conjunction with wild arse statements that he stopped posting

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The cynic in me says this is a move of self preservation for its own industrial capabilities vis a vis Korea.

South Korea is about to see a massive boom to its military industrial complex. Japan needs to do this to keep pace in this sector of technology and manufacturing. Nothing feeds R&D like billion dollar sale contracts.

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Yes, that's probably a factor, but I'd argue the war in Ukraine and the greater awareness that Japan might end up fighting China soon is a bigger factor.

Same reason that Australia did AUKUS. Our three biggest Pacific allies (South Korea, Japan, and Australia) are all in the midst of massive upgrades to their defense industrial base.

Just three days ago, we got word that Korea and Poland are planning to jointly develop a new wheeled armored vehicle.

People who say that the war in Ukraine is helping China are badly mistaken.

Very interesting Yevgeny Prigozhin statement about the time that Wagner actually tried to fight US troops in Syria in 2018 (and was crushed). Prigozhin is using now to further his efforts to undermine Shoigu.

LINK

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Speaking of Japan in this context:

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Their Type 10 MBT may not be the best tank in the world and probably has an old infotainment system (surely lacks Apple CarPlay) but I bet they will go 400,000 miles with just routine maintenance.

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This dude ...

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Well, shite. I bet MG Hill is on the horn right now setting him up with a VIP flight to Carlisle Barracks as a guest lecturer.

It appears the Dunning–Kruger effect can impact the brilliant as easily as it impacts Florida fans.

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On the eve of WWI, there were many “experts” claiming there was no way for a large scale war in Europe was possible because Britain, France, Germany, and even Austria-Hungary and Russia were all massive trading partners with one another.

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But war happened bc the small elite inner circles running countries like German Empire and Russian Empire felt threatened.

That’s how a war with China happens… if the small inner circle running that country feels like their grip on power is threatened, they’re not gonna give one flying frick about trade partnerships.

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IIRC a Lancet costs about 5-10 times as much as a decoy. Even if there was cost parody the equation is more dependent on what it does to each country's supply. Decoys can be built outside the MIC so it utilizes a source that likely doesn't have any impact on weapons production whereas taking a Lancet off the board stresses the MIC and likely different logistical assets.

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But the real cost comparison isn't the cost of the tank decoy compared to the cost of the Lancet. The real comparison is the cost of the decoy compared to the cost of the real armored vehicle or artillery piece that the Lancet might have otherwise found and destroyed.

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Japan has been making some moves to suggest they’ll contribute to the best of their abilities, but they have a low base to start from comparatively and don’t have the physical presence to back it up

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Japan has an awful lot of soft power. Despite what is said about China and their Belt and Road Initiative, Japan is still the leader in terms of infrastructure investments in Southeast Asia. What doesn't get played up is how circumspect Japan is in using that soft power, which means they have much more room to maneuver in that arena. And their 2022 defense strategy publication is pretty emphatic. I highly suggest people who are interested in geopolitics read the entire thing, linked here.

In fact, the best way to follow geopolitics is to read the publications that governments themselves produce, which are the best guide to how governments think. In Japan's case, the language they use is really strong and they outline how they are threatened by the actions of their neighbors and provide very explicit justifications for their massive increase in defense spending for the 2023 budget, with a goal of 2 percent of GDP by 2027. LINK

There really has been a massive sea-change in terms of how politicians view military spending since the Russian invasion. The government documents are much more explicit than the public statements politicians make, and I think those explicit statements mean several things.

Firstly, the statements and subsequent actions of pretty much every developed country suggests that they think Russia will remain a long-term threat to the security of the global order, regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine. That invites long-term planning, in terms of decades, to match the gravity of the threat.

Secondly, those governments think that the Russians will will attempt to transform their military in an attempt fix their deficiencies, as they've already announced a large spending package over the next 3 years. Per year, their spending per GDP might reach near 10% of their GDP, which is an insanely high number.

In closing, Japan has much more room to use their political power than one would think, and is planning for a security situation that could rapidly deteriorate, which will force their hand, regardless of their other issues.

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Fun fact: the pre WWI Royal Navy relied on German optics. It had a contract with the Zeiss company, which both parties adhered to until 1916.

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Yup. Not just the Royal Navy. The army realized on Zeiss for binoculars as well. If I remember correctly they had to go though an intermediary in Switzerland to get shipments from Germany to Britain.