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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/4/23 at 11:19 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 5/4/23 at 11:19 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:Unless they know what we know that they know what we know.....
This is an observable fact and the strongest indicator that it wasn't an attempted false flag. If it was a FSB job for propaganda purposes, the news would have been released fast and heavy with many quotes from Russian government officials pre-recorded. We'd be hearing the outrage for a week.
It's Spy vs Spy from Mad Magazine brought to life.
0
Posted on 5/4/23 at 11:23 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
“We look like clowns who threaten with a nuclear bomb in response to a children's drone,” #Wagner PMC head #Prigozhin said about the UAV attack on the #Kremlin.
“I can say that the use of nuclear weapons in response to a drone, of course, is out of the question,” he added.
Pretty insane to have Prigozhin as the level-headed voice of reason within a group of hard-line radicals who are calling for nuclear strikes.
Just one more indicator of what a weird time we are living through right now.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 2:15 pm to IAmNERD
There have been several Russian reports today that Ukraine has attacked near Vuhledar and taken some Russian positions.
I absolutely do not think that this is "the start of the counteroffensive," but I have thought for a while that it might be easier for Ukraine to force a breakthrough in that direction than Melitopol, and that could then be followed with an attempt to retake Mariupol or an attempt to cut of the city of Donetsk.
I absolutely do not think that this is "the start of the counteroffensive," but I have thought for a while that it might be easier for Ukraine to force a breakthrough in that direction than Melitopol, and that could then be followed with an attempt to retake Mariupol or an attempt to cut of the city of Donetsk.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 2:18 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
#Ukraine: A Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 UCAV was shot down by a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile over Kyiv in an example of friendly fire.
Video at LINK
Closeup photos confirm that it is indeed a TB2 drone and a case of friendly fire.
EDIT: LINK
quote:
Emerging consensus among military experts and a Ukrainian background source is this was a Ukrainian TB2 drone that lost control over Kyiv.
EDIT 2: Ukrainian Air Force confirms that the Bayraktar drone was intentionally downed after they lost control of it (I think this implies fear that the drone might have been hacked).
This post was edited on 5/4/23 at 3:21 pm
Posted on 5/4/23 at 2:28 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I absolutely do not think that this is "the start of the counteroffensive,"
Likely a probing attack to test Russia's defenses and solidify their tactics for breaching the defenses.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 2:31 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Probably would take a few months at least. It took us two weeks to get from Kuwait to Baghdad.
Iraq didn’t have a military bled white from over a year of hard ground combat.
quote:
Would be a pretty good tactic considering our current munitions production capacity and the amount of our bullets already used up in Ukraine.
I think we would have a 3-6 month window to win a war from a primary ground combat standpoint before we had to sue for peace because our gear is better and slower to produce than theirs.
We can deal with mop up or insurgency level stuff after that but the tanks and artillery would be in trouble from a munitions standpoint.
But for the record, I don’t want there to be any war with Russia unless they attack the US directly.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 3:35 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Likely a probing attack to test Russia's defenses and solidify their tactics for breaching the defenses.
On the other hand, @Tatarigami_UA is a Ukrainian officer who is actually on the Vuhledar front:
quote:
In recent days, I have encountered claims from russians about the repulsion of alleged Ukrainian attacks in different regions. I can’t confirm their statements, as they appear to be manufactured by russians with the intent of later proclaiming their successful repulsion.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 4:10 pm to GOP_Tiger
Julia Davis
@JuliaDavisNews
State TV propagandists on Vladimir Solovyov's show blamed Americans for the Kremlin drone "attack" and plotted to use it as a pretext to kill Zelensky, pause elections in Russia and boost military recruitment.
Youtube video
@JuliaDavisNews
State TV propagandists on Vladimir Solovyov's show blamed Americans for the Kremlin drone "attack" and plotted to use it as a pretext to kill Zelensky, pause elections in Russia and boost military recruitment.
Youtube video
Posted on 5/4/23 at 4:27 pm to GOP_Tiger
A side rabbit hole but definitely related to the war is the sale of Russian oil to other countries. What's Going on With Shipping? is an interesting YouTube channel with a daily update on maritime merchant activities around the world. About three weeks ago he did a video about the growing "Ghost Fleet' of oil tankers which has sprung up to circumvent the sanctions and price ceiling on oil produced by some nations. The ownership of these vessels is masked by shell corporations in third world countries, false storefronts, etc. Most seem to be uninsured. The required SOLAS inspections are often not done, He warned that there will likely be accidents, oil spills, etc. in the future due to these practices.
His videos on May 1 & 2 concern an explosion and fire aboard the tanker Pablo in international water in the South China Sea off the coast of Malaysia. The explosion apparently happened at anchor apparently during a ship-to-ship transfer of oil to hide the origin of the oil. Safety inspections haven't been kept up to date and required safety practices (specifically grounding) were not followed.
What's Going on With Shipping
His videos on May 1 & 2 concern an explosion and fire aboard the tanker Pablo in international water in the South China Sea off the coast of Malaysia. The explosion apparently happened at anchor apparently during a ship-to-ship transfer of oil to hide the origin of the oil. Safety inspections haven't been kept up to date and required safety practices (specifically grounding) were not followed.
What's Going on With Shipping
Posted on 5/4/23 at 5:01 pm to Redstick Tigah
quote:
A side rabbit hole but definitely related to the war is the sale of Russian oil to other countries. What's Going on With Shipping? is an interesting YouTube channel with a daily update on maritime merchant activities around the world. About three weeks ago he did a video about the growing "Ghost Fleet' of oil tankers which has sprung up to circumvent the sanctions and price ceiling on oil produced by some nations. The ownership of these vessels is masked by shell corporations in third world countries, false storefronts, etc. Most seem to be uninsured. The required SOLAS inspections are often not done, He warned that there will likely be accidents, oil spills, etc. in the future due to these practices
He knows what he is talking about. That explosion would have happened AFTER cargo was transferred, due it's the gases/vapors that explode. Tranferring at sea is an old practice and happened constantly from the late 1960's at several USCG designated lightering points off the West, East and Gulf coasts. Due no mainland US port could receive a supertanker. The largest ever to come into port by 1990 was a Norwegian owned 1.2 million barrel small VLCC, which lightered 400,000 bbls before entering the Calcasieu ship channel to discharge at then Conoco's Clifton Ridge Terminal in Carlyss, LA known in nautical circles as Rose Bluff. After two very strong Canadian fronts had come through it all but had to be dragged/pushed through the mud at the bottom of the channel with assistance of 4 tugs instead of the normal two standing by to assist in docking. The channel had recently been dredged to 44 feet (project was 40 feet but allowance for silt to gradually fill the bottom) The point being that no supertankers came into US ports outside of Valdez, AK
Typical lightering is that both ships make a large circle and meet alongside with bumper, known as Yokohama fenders, to keep them from rubbing. Then hoses are lifted and connected between them. I don't know about any grounding cables being used
This post was edited on 5/4/23 at 5:06 pm
Posted on 5/4/23 at 5:40 pm to cypher
quote:
Julia Davis
@JuliaDavisNews
State TV propagandists on Vladimir Solovyov's show blamed Americans for the Kremlin drone "attack" and plotted to use it as a pretext to kill Zelensky, pause elections in Russia and boost military recruitment.
Youtube video
Been blocked over Copyright.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 6:00 pm to IAmNERD
Posted on 5/4/23 at 6:15 pm to FlintEastwood
"Where are the fricking shells?"
It seems to me that Russia was in a desperate position in February with respect to artillery shells, and then they got in a big shipment of shells from Iran that fixed things for a while.
But now, those shells are gone. It will be interesting to see if Iran can provide Russia with any more 152mm shells.
In the meantime, I question whether or not Wagner will be able to complete the capture of Bakhmut. Wagner's progress has significantly slowed in recent days. If ISW were to claim that Wagner's offensive is culminating, they might actually be right this time (third time's the charm).
It seems to me that Russia was in a desperate position in February with respect to artillery shells, and then they got in a big shipment of shells from Iran that fixed things for a while.
But now, those shells are gone. It will be interesting to see if Iran can provide Russia with any more 152mm shells.
In the meantime, I question whether or not Wagner will be able to complete the capture of Bakhmut. Wagner's progress has significantly slowed in recent days. If ISW were to claim that Wagner's offensive is culminating, they might actually be right this time (third time's the charm).
Posted on 5/4/23 at 6:25 pm to GOP_Tiger
I think the Russian MOD is holding them back in anticipation of the Ukrainian offensive.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 6:45 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I think the Russian MOD is holding them back in anticipation of the Ukrainian offensive.
Perhaps, but I question whether that will work, because Ukraine will try to cut logistics chains at the beginning of its offensive. It will do Russia no good to have spare shells in Luhansk and Crimea if it can't get them to the front.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 6:51 pm to CitizenK
quote:First developed in 1958 by Yokohama Tire & Rubber Ltd. of Japan.
Typical lightering is that both ships make a large circle and meet alongside with bumper, known as Yokohama fenders, to keep them from rubbing.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 6:51 pm to GOP_Tiger
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4.
Russian officials are likely using the May 3 drone strike on the Kremlin to expand cancellations of parades for the May 9 Victory Day holiday.
The Kremlin is reportedly continuing its overhaul of domestic security organs.
US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated that Russian forces are likely unable to conduct a “significant offensive” in 2023 due to munitions and manpower shortages regardless of the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Russia and India reportedly suspended efforts to trade in rupees.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made territorial gains south of Kreminna.
Ukrainian forces likely conducted a limited counterattack southwest of Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City line.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Kremlin is attempting to increase the production quotas of military supplies despite reportedly lacking the necessary manpower.
Russian occupation authorities continue to announce new security measures in an effort to prevent partisan attacks in occupied territories.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 7:30 pm to cypher
Posted on 5/4/23 at 7:40 pm to GOP_Tiger
Looks like the tactic this time is to attack fuel storage with drones. Seeing reports of more hit again today.
Last fall it was munitions and now Russia has seemed to have adapted and moved munitions out of HIMARS range.
Cut fuel and logistics to get those munitions at range to the front are impacted. Plus fuel shortages on the front would impact you Mobile reserves being used to react to Ukrainian attacks along the front.
What is intel showing of russias fuel reserves? Does Russia normally export their oil and import refined fuels? I know their refineries are aging and some of the higher grade fuels are harder to make domestically. But how bad is it?
Last fall it was munitions and now Russia has seemed to have adapted and moved munitions out of HIMARS range.
Cut fuel and logistics to get those munitions at range to the front are impacted. Plus fuel shortages on the front would impact you Mobile reserves being used to react to Ukrainian attacks along the front.
What is intel showing of russias fuel reserves? Does Russia normally export their oil and import refined fuels? I know their refineries are aging and some of the higher grade fuels are harder to make domestically. But how bad is it?
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