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Posted on 5/3/23 at 7:53 pm to FlintEastwood
Posted on 5/3/23 at 8:34 pm to FlintEastwood
Isw update
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russia accused Ukraine of conducting a drone strike against the Kremlin.
Russia likely staged this attack in an attempt to bring the war home to a Russian domestic audience and set conditions for a wider societal mobilization.
The rapid and coherent presentation of an official Russian narrative around the strike suggests that Russia staged this attack in close proximity to the May 9th Victory Day holiday in order to frame the war as existential to its domestic audience.
Some Russian nationalist milbloggers seized on the Kremlin drone strike to call for Russian escalation in the war despite the fact that Russia currently lacks the military capability to do so.
The Kremlin may be planning to conduct other false flag operations and to increase disinformation ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in order to increase domestic support for the war.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin baselessly claimed on May 3 that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has already begun, likely in order to exploit information space anxieties and call for increased Russian military support for Wagner’s Bakhmut offensive.
Russian forces conducted a Shahed-131/136 drone strike on the night of May 2 to 3.
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks near Kreminna.
Russian forces continued to make gains in and around Bakhmut and continued to conduct ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Russian forces conducted heavy air and artillery strikes against west (right) bank Kherson Oblast.
Russian officials continue to incentivize military service by providing social benefits to families of participants in the war.
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed that it prevented a “terrorist” attack against three Crimean officials.
Posted on 5/3/23 at 8:35 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
This absolute trash account has over 300,000 followers. There is ZERO evidence of any of this.
I agree but unfortunately the same can be said for a gazillion other websites, Twitter pages, news outlets...
Welcome to the New America. Every asswipe with an uneducated opinion and a keyboard is shaping public opinion.
Posted on 5/3/23 at 8:58 pm to FlintEastwood
60,000 BPD, oldest refinery in Russia, and just a simple crude unit with fairly new vaccuum unit. Cannot produce aviation grade gasoline, and only run of the mill kerosene, not jet
Posted on 5/3/23 at 9:05 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 5/3/23 at 11:18 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 5/4/23 at 4:42 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 04 May 2023
On 3 May 2023 a fire broke out at a Russian fuel depot
in Volna on the Russian mainland side of the Kerch Strait, close to the Crimean bridge. It was initiated by a suspected drone strike.
This follows a pattern of Russian fuel storage sites being damaged since the start of the year, with fuel depots in occupied Ukraine and the Russia-Ukraine border regions remaining particularly vulnerable to attack.
The disruption to the fuel storage and distribution network will likely force adjustments to Russia's military refuelling operations to mitigate targeting.
Russian adjustments could include deploying additional protection measures at fuel storage sites, as seen in Tuaspe in Russia, or relying on infrastructure in less threatened regions.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 04 May 2023
On 3 May 2023 a fire broke out at a Russian fuel depot
in Volna on the Russian mainland side of the Kerch Strait, close to the Crimean bridge. It was initiated by a suspected drone strike.
This follows a pattern of Russian fuel storage sites being damaged since the start of the year, with fuel depots in occupied Ukraine and the Russia-Ukraine border regions remaining particularly vulnerable to attack.
The disruption to the fuel storage and distribution network will likely force adjustments to Russia's military refuelling operations to mitigate targeting.
Russian adjustments could include deploying additional protection measures at fuel storage sites, as seen in Tuaspe in Russia, or relying on infrastructure in less threatened regions.
This post was edited on 5/4/23 at 4:43 am
Posted on 5/4/23 at 6:19 am to CitizenK
quote:
Here is the list of arms and ammo given to Ukraine by the USA as of today.
That’s an entire modern army’s worth of equipment. Not to mention what the rest of the world donated and what Ukraine had prior to the start of the war. If this offensive isn’t dramatically effective against a shite Russian army then we have a lot of thinking to do about our own equipment or the idea that Russian army is shite.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 6:33 am to cypher
Morning random tweets
LINK
LINK
LINK
quote:
Clearly the Kremlin drone “assassination attempt” was aimed at hitting Putin during his well documented routine 2AM pole dancing lessons on the Kremlin Senate flagpole.
The severely risk averse Putin that hides in bunkers and won’t sit within 50ft of anyone is just a public persona.
The real Putin loves high risk rooftop nighttime activities that make him vulnerable to a drone with a 2lb explosive charge.
LINK
quote:
Russian telegrams report two new drone attacks targeting refineries in Ilsky (Krasnodar) and Novoshakhtinsk (Rostov).
LINK
quote:
Russia is cutting oil production by 500,000 bpd from February 2023 levels, Deputy Prime Minister Novak said
LINK
Posted on 5/4/23 at 7:15 am to StormyMcMan
I'm reading a lot of criticism of ISW this morning about their assessment that the Kremlin drone attack was a false flag.
For what it's worth, I agree. The Kremlin doesn't need a false flag. There's no real reason for it. And it makes Russia look comically weak and inept, especially after all the air defense equipment that had already been put up in Moscow.
Of course, there's no real way to know for sure -- we're all just guessing. But when ISW "assesses" that it was a false flag, they put something like an official stamp upon their guess, and that damages their credibility.
For what it's worth, I agree. The Kremlin doesn't need a false flag. There's no real reason for it. And it makes Russia look comically weak and inept, especially after all the air defense equipment that had already been put up in Moscow.
Of course, there's no real way to know for sure -- we're all just guessing. But when ISW "assesses" that it was a false flag, they put something like an official stamp upon their guess, and that damages their credibility.
This post was edited on 5/4/23 at 7:30 am
Posted on 5/4/23 at 7:18 am to GOP_Tiger
The most likely explanation is normally the correct one. An anti-Putin person or group of people in Russia carried out a shittily devised attempt to assassinate their president.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 7:33 am to doubleb
quote:
Yellowstone is going to blow in 50 years. With global warming Siberia is going to replace Florida as a destination state.
Yellowstone will NOT erupt anytime soon. Do not let all of the geysers fool you. The bed of Yellowstone Lake rises 2 centimeters a year. If you look at the geological earthquake map, you will see little earthquakes everywhere.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 7:35 am to GeauxxxTigers23
It was not an assassination attempt. Literally everyone in Russia knows that Putin does not sleep in the Kremlin, but rather at his official residence just outside the capital. And 5 lb of explosives didn't even dent the roof.
The most likely explanation, I believe, was Russian partisans or Ukrainian SOF using these drones to humiliate Russia.
The most likely explanation, I believe, was Russian partisans or Ukrainian SOF using these drones to humiliate Russia.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 7:41 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
The most likely explanation is normally the correct one.
Hard to argue with this.
Seismic activity has just been detected at the Franciscan church in Munich.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 7:57 am to GOP_Tiger
LINK
I don't think we talked about the drone hit on Iliski oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, but it's not a big deal in and of itself.
What is a bigger deal is that Ukraine is obviously making a coordinated attempt to attack Russian fuel storage and transport.
EDIT: I'll go further and say that this is the first action that I think really is preparation for the Ukrainian offensive. This is exactly the kind of thing that Ukraine should be doing two weeks or so ahead of the offensive.
quote:
Quick map showing reported attacks on 4 refineries and 2 fuel trains over the past 4 days. Locations are based on
@GeoConfirmed
data and media reports.
I don't think we talked about the drone hit on Iliski oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, but it's not a big deal in and of itself.
What is a bigger deal is that Ukraine is obviously making a coordinated attempt to attack Russian fuel storage and transport.
EDIT: I'll go further and say that this is the first action that I think really is preparation for the Ukrainian offensive. This is exactly the kind of thing that Ukraine should be doing two weeks or so ahead of the offensive.
This post was edited on 5/4/23 at 8:09 am
Posted on 5/4/23 at 7:58 am to StormyMcMan
This one won the internet.
I couldn't stop laughing
quote:
Clearly the Kremlin drone “assassination attempt” was aimed at hitting Putin during his well documented routine 2AM pole dancing lessons on the Kremlin Senate flagpole.
The severely risk averse Putin that hides in bunkers and won’t sit within 50ft of anyone is just a public persona.
The real Putin loves high risk rooftop nighttime activities that make him vulnerable to a drone with a 2lb explosive charge.
I couldn't stop laughing
This post was edited on 5/4/23 at 8:14 am
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:17 am to GOP_Tiger
Agreed, I think this is the first real indicator of Ukraine preparing the battlefield for its attack.
Look for more to come.
Look for more to come.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:18 am to CitizenK
Zelensky is in the Netherlands, where he just gave a speech at The Hague. At a joint press conference with the Dutch prime minister, I thought that this was interesting:
He doesn't even say that he's working with the US. Europe is really split right now, and half of it is much more aggressive than the US about helping Ukraine, and the other half is rather nonchalant.
quote:
The Netherlands is working hard behind the scenes to reach consensus with allies about supplying fighter jets to Ukraine, Prime Minister Rutte said. At the joint press conference, he emphasized his position that there are no taboos, but that the time has not yet come.
Rutte said there is "clear support" from the Dutch parliament to work on the plan. About the possible delivery of F-16s, Rutte said: "We are working intensively with partners such as Belgium, the United Kingdom and Denmark to somehow bring the debate on this to a conclusion."
He said it is a sensitive subject. Rutte referred to the earlier discussion about sending armored howitzers and Leopard tanks to Ukraine. "Something like that takes time. But right now the armored howitzers are in Ukraine. And the Leopard IIs are being delivered."
He doesn't even say that he's working with the US. Europe is really split right now, and half of it is much more aggressive than the US about helping Ukraine, and the other half is rather nonchalant.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:21 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
quote:Russia is cutting oil production by 500,000 bpd from February 2023 levels, Deputy Prime Minister Novak said
And the experts on the other board will tell you Russia is raking it in.
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