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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:30 am to GeauxxxTigers23
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:30 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
That’s an entire modern army’s worth of equipment. Not to mention what the rest of the world donated and what Ukraine had prior to the start of the war. If this offensive isn’t dramatically effective against a shite Russian army then we have a lot of thinking to do about our own equipment or the idea that Russian army is shite.
Assuming it didn’t go nuclear, the US army could roll through Ukraine and take Moscow in a month based on how the Russian military has performed to date.
The Russians would have no chance against current gen tanks supported by combined arms tactics run by a non-conscript army that doesn’t consist of dudes running around with old tech they don’t understand and using tactics more applicable to WW1 than modern war.
They would have to try to prolong the war by various means long enough to run us out of munitions that would likely be difficult for us to replenish and try to force us to sue for peace or hope the Chinese got involved.
This post was edited on 5/4/23 at 2:32 pm
3
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:31 am to tide06
LINK
quote:
“We look like clowns who threaten with a nuclear bomb in response to a children's drone,” #Wagner PMC head #Prigozhin said about the UAV attack on the #Kremlin.
“I can say that the use of nuclear weapons in response to a drone, of course, is out of the question,” he added.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:35 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
The most likely explanation is normally the correct one. An anti-Putin person or group of people in Russia carried out a shittily devised attempt to assassinate their president.
Before we jump on ISW, and yes ISW is just guessing, but you have to remember the Russian statement overhyping the event.
It was not a big deal, it wasn’t an assassination attempt on Putin, and Russia is blowing it all out of proportions.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:36 am to tide06
quote:
Assuming it didn’t go nuclear, the US army could roll through Ukraine and take Moscow in a month based on how the Russian military has performed to date.
Probably would take a few months at least. It took us two weeks to get from Kuwait to Baghdad.
quote:Would be a pretty good tactic considering our current munitions production capacity and the amount of our bullets already used up in Ukraine.
They would have to try to prolong the war by various means long enough to run us out of munitions that would likely be difficult for us to replenish and try to force us to sue for peace or hope the Chinese got involved.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:36 am to tide06
quote:
That’s an entire modern army’s worth of equipment. Not to mention what the rest of the world donated and what Ukraine had prior to the start of the war. If this offensive isn’t dramatically effective against a shite Russian army then we have a lot of thinking to do about our own equipment or the idea that Russian army is shite.
The other thing about this is that Ukraine is going to emerge from this war with one of the strongest armies in Europe -- perhaps Poland would be stronger, but that's about it.
When we think about the strength of NATO, how could we not want NATO to include such a powerful nation as Ukraine is going to be?
It will depend on the resolution of the war, of course, and the border situation, but it makes too much sense in the long term.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:38 am to doubleb
quote:
Before we jump on ISW, and yes ISW is just guessing, but you have to remember the Russian statement overhyping the event. It was not a big deal, it wasn’t an assassination attempt on Putin, and Russia is blowing it all out of proportions.
I’ve never been a fan of ISW. I think a 12 year old could make more accurate “assessments” of this war. The drone thing has no bearing on my opinion of them.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:39 am to doubleb
quote:
Russia is blowing it all out of proportions.
No, they aren't. Russian TV didn't actually show the drone attack almost all day yesterday, instead showing archival footage of the Kremlin.
Watch as a BBC reporter for Russia goes through the Russian newspapers. The more closely a newspaper was tied to the government, the more they downplayed the attack.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:42 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
When we think about the strength of NATO, how could we not want NATO to include such a powerful nation as Ukraine is going to be?
Agreed. NATO will be so powerful after this war with Ukraine’s massive army and the rest of Europe upping their defense spending that hopefully we can stop subsidizing the entire continent’s defense and get out of NATO.
And I know the arguments. “We’re buying influence and it benefits us and bla bla.” That argument made sense 40 years ago. I don’t buy it anymore. We have bigger fish to fry and that fish is China.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:48 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
I’ve never been a fan of ISW. I think a 12 year old could make more accurate “assessments” of this war. The drone thing has no bearing on my opinion of them.
I read the write ups posted here and I think they do a good job.
If you have the time, why don’t you provide your assessment or someone else’s if you think it’s better, I fit one would welcome good information and a good, fair assessment.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:50 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
hopefully we can stop subsidizing the entire continent’s defense and get out of NATO.
No, we aren't going to get out.
What I hope that we will be able to do, though, is reorganize our entire defense posture to focus on the Pacific.
But taking money from the Army and giving it to the Navy, Marines, and Air Force is not an easy thing politically.
This post was edited on 5/4/23 at 8:53 am
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:52 am to doubleb
quote:
If you have the time, why don’t you provide your assessment or someone else’s if you think it’s better, I fit one would welcome good information and a good, fair assessment.
That's the thing, of course. No one else does what ISW does. They're really indispensable, which is why I hate to see them do something as dumb as "assess" that the drone attack was a false flag.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:52 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
No, they aren't. Russian TV didn't actually show the drone attack almost all day yesterday, instead showing archival footage of the Kremlin.
It’s stuff like this tgst I am referring to:
quote:
"From today, Vladimir Zelensky should be declared a terrorist, a blow is needed to convince the enemy that Russia has the opportunity to punish such actions to death" -- Oleg Morozov, deputy of the Russian State Duma from United Russia
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:56 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Agreed. NATO will be so powerful after this war with Ukraine’s massive army and the rest of Europe upping their defense spending that hopefully we can stop subsidizing the entire continent’s defense and get out of NATO. And I know the arguments. “We’re buying influence and it benefits us and bla bla.” That argument made sense 40 years ago. I don’t buy it anymore. We have bigger fish to fry and that fish is China.
We certainly can and should prod Europe to pony up and defend themselves. I supported Trump on this.
The stronger NATO is the more we can concern ourselves with China. I agree with you on this.
Now I’m not saying to get out of NATO, but to make surf Europe abides by their agreements and then sone.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:57 am to doubleb
quote:
If you have the time, why don’t you provide your assessment or someone else’s if you think it’s better, I fit one would welcome good information and a good, fair assessment.
Honestly pretty tied up with work the next couple of weeks. Hopefully things will calm down for me in time for the Spring/Summer offensive and I can engage more in the thread.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:58 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
That's the thing, of course. No one else does what ISW does. They're really indispensable, which is why I hate to see them do something as dumb as "assess" that the drone attack was a false flag.
Yes, they need to stick to reporting the facts. If they want to speculate then make sure it is separate from their daily reports.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 8:59 am to doubleb
quote:
And the experts on the other board will tell you Russia is raking it in.
Their refined products exports are down more than that. Also selling at below cost is only for desperately needed cash flow. Sort of like buying on credit then pawning the goods to get cash.
Posted on 5/4/23 at 9:11 am to CitizenK
LINK
Note that this is Ukraine cleaning up corruption that happened seven years ago.
quote:
Mayor of Odesa, Gennadiy Trukhanov, was arrested in the Krayan case. The anti-corruption court believes that in 2016, Odesa City Council purchased a building of the bankrupt Krayan plant at an inflated price, and tried to withdraw the difference through a fictitious enterprise.
Note that this is Ukraine cleaning up corruption that happened seven years ago.
This post was edited on 5/4/23 at 9:12 am
Posted on 5/4/23 at 9:58 am to CitizenK
Posted on 5/4/23 at 11:12 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:This is an observable fact and the strongest indicator that it wasn't an attempted false flag. If it was a FSB job for propaganda purposes, the news would have been released fast and heavy with many quotes from Russian government officials pre-recorded. We'd be hearing the outrage for a week.
No, they aren't. Russian TV didn't actually show the drone attack almost all day yesterday, instead showing archival footage of the Kremlin.
Watch as a BBC reporter for Russia goes through the Russian newspapers. The more closely a newspaper was tied to the government, the more they downplayed the attack.
That leaves Russian protestors and local Ukrainians acting on their own as with Darya (Extra Crispy) Dugin. I don't for a minute believe that over a year's worth of very difficult restraint by the Ukrainian government in regards to killing Russian civilians would be blown in front of the international press with such weak sauce.
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