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1
Posted on 4/5/23 at 7:18 pm to BambiisDead
Random tweets
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
quote:
The Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office; Andrii Sybiha stated in an Interview today that Ukraine will be willing to discuss the “Territorial Integrity of the Crimean Peninsula” with Russia if their upcoming Counteroffensive to the Border with Crimea is Successful.
However, he further stated that these “Negotiations” would not Exclude the possibility that Crimea could still be Liberated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
LINK
quote:
Russian forces have moved equipment out of a military depot in northern Crimea over the past month. Recent satellite imagery shows that this site had tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery.
High resolution imagery from @Maxar and @washingtonpost shows some of the equipment at this Russian military depot and the defenses built nearby.
Russian forces constructed several fortifications near this site and throughout occupied Crimea:
The removal of Russian military equipment from this depot in occupied Crimea can be seen clearly when comparing high resolution satellite imagery from February 11th to March 16th.
LINK
quote:
When will the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine begin, and what does the weather have to do with it
Ukrainian authorities say the Ukrainian Armed Forces may launch a counteroffensive "in the coming weeks."
U.S. military meteorologist David Helms believes that the start depends, among other things, on when the muddy weather will end in different regions of the country.
Helms analyzes the weather in the war zone. According to his data, the soil in Ukraine will begin to actively lose moisture from May 1. In the south of the country it will be dry as early as mid-April. In Donetsk region it will be two weeks later, in Lugansk region - from mid-May.
This means that at that time the Ukrainian army can launch an offensive in the south towards Melitopol, while in the east the movement of tanks will be problematic, they may still get stuck in the mud.
LINK
quote:
Initial Reports that Russian Security Forces have engaged “Suspected Militants” in the Malgobek District of the Ingushetia Region in Southern Russia near the Border with Georgia; Rosgvardiya Units as well as Russian Regular Forces have been observed heading towards the Area.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced that a Counter-Terrorism Operation has begun in the Malgobek District of the Ingushetia Region as ordered by the Operational Headquarters of the Russian Army.
The Russian Security Service had previously conducted Raids in 2020 and 2021 against ISIS and Islamist Groups in the Ingushetia Region, with a Police Station in Region also being Attacked by Suspected-Islamic Militants earlier this week.
LINK
quote:
At least 2 Police Officers have been Killed and 6 Injured during a “Counter-Terrorism Operation” against Suspected-Islamic Militants in the Ingushetia Region of Southern Russia tonight; Rosgvardiya Forces have taken control of the Operation with additional Troops seen arriving.
LINK
Posted on 4/5/23 at 7:29 pm to GOP_Tiger
The Ukrainian forces may be outnumbered but they have an extreme mobility advantage to the Russians. All the hundreds of vehicles sent to Ukraine from MBTs to IFVs and APCs down to the Humvees, MRAPs and Hilux/Land Cruisers are all really starting to add up. That’s not even counting the bridge laying systems and tanker trucks they have acquired. If they can use that mobility to exploit the Russian’s rigid command structure and break through their front line defenses they can absolutely wreak havoc in their rear areas and send them running through the woods to get away much like the offensive in the north last year. They can’t just sit there in trenches trading artillery and mortar rounds.
Posted on 4/5/23 at 7:55 pm to LSUPilot07
The Russians have been digging fortifications well behind the front lines. How well they will work is questionable but they're aware of Ukraine s likely strategy and are trying to counter it.
Posted on 4/5/23 at 8:00 pm to LSUPilot07
Mobility is a huge factor. You may be outnumbered on the entire war front, but you only battle the enemy in front of you. Accurate intelligence will be a must.
This post was edited on 4/5/23 at 8:06 pm
Posted on 4/5/23 at 8:01 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
When will the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine begin, and what does the weather have to do with it?
Ukrainian authorities say the Ukrainian Armed Forces may launch a counteroffensive "in the coming weeks."
I hate to say, but at this point this upcoming, much anticipated, Ukrainian offensive is starting to make me think of the run up to Operation “Zitadelle”, the German Summer offensive better known as The Battle of Kursk.
The Germans repeatedly delayed the start of the offensive against the giant Soviet salient around Kursk in order to bring up more Wehrmacht resources, primarily Panzer divisions. By the time the Germans launched their offensive, the Soviets had made the Kursk Salient into the most heavily fortified region on the planet with multiple fortified lines backed up by millions of mines and massive amounts of “pak fronts” and artillery. The result was after some initial gains, the Germans were worn down to a nub and ripe for the Soviets to counterattack.
The point of all this is to say, the last thing the Ukrainians should do is give the Russians time to prepare their defenses. The Russians have so far in this war lived up to their longstanding reputation for being piss poor at offensive operations. But one thing the Russians have always historically excelled at, perhaps as good or better than virtually any army in history, is stoic defense.
My point in saying all this is Ukraine should launch their spring offensive sooner rather than later.
This post was edited on 4/5/23 at 8:07 pm
Posted on 4/5/23 at 8:08 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
the last thing the Ukrainians should do is give the Russians time to prepare their defenses.
You bring up a good point, but it’s not like Ukraine could do much attacking in the last three months due to weather
Posted on 4/5/23 at 8:51 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
The point of all this is to say, the last thing the Ukrainians should do is give the Russians time to prepare their defenses.
quote]My point in saying all this is Ukraine should launch their spring offensive sooner rather than later.[/quote]
Timing us everything, but the weather pksys a key role in setting the time frame.
Remember too that Stalin knew what the Germans were doing. The Brits were reading Hitler’s mail. They set their defenses exactly where Germany was going.
Do the Russians have advanced intel now? Perhsps, but so far it doesn’t appear they do.
But I agree timing will be a big key.
Posted on 4/5/23 at 8:56 pm to doubleb
isw
quote:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian forces will withdraw from Bakhmut to avoid encirclement if necessary, but do not yet assess the need to do so. Zelensky stated during a press conference in Poland on April 5 that Ukrainian troops face a very challenging situation in Bakhmut, and that Kyiv will make the “corresponding decisions” if Ukrainian troops risk encirclement by Russian forces.[1] Zelensky’s statement is in line with other recent statements by Ukrainian officials that Ukrainian military command will order a withdrawal from Bakhmut when and if they deem a withdrawal to be the most strategically appropriate option. While it remains to be seen whether Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut and its efficacy in fixing Russian forces in the area is worth Ukrainian losses (and we will likely be unable to assess this until observing the Ukrainian spring counteroffensive), Ukrainian military leadership continues to clearly signal that Ukrainian forces are still not encircled and have the option to withdraw as necessary
quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin framed Russia’s efforts to consolidate control of occupied territories of Ukraine as a matter of internal security and rule of law during a meeting with the Russian National Security Council on April 5. Putin called for the continued economic, legal, and social integration of occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts into the Russian Federation and emphasized the importance of Russian “restoration” efforts in occupied areas in facilitating the integration process.[3] Putin also accused Ukraine of threatening civilians in occupied areas and highlighted recent ”terrorist attacks” against occupation officials and law enforcement agencies, referring to Ukrainian partisan attacks against occupation organs.[4] Putin emphasized the need for intensified law enforcement operations to guard against such attacks and called for the increased participation of local Ukrainian citizens in law enforcement processes, explicitly encouraging collaborators and informants in occupied areas. Putin has notably invoked the concept of “terrorism” and threats to Russian domestic security to justify domestic repressions and is likely setting conditions for further repressions and law enforcement crackdowns in occupied territories using similar framing.
quote:
Putin also attempted to portray Russia as a respected world power against the backdrop of Chinese officials downplaying close relations with Russia. Putin held a televised meeting presenting ambassador credentials to the heads of 17 diplomatic missions on April 5, during which he highlighted Russia’s close relationship with Syria and cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), likely as part of ongoing Russian efforts to appeal to non-Western states.[6] Putin stated that Syria is a reliable partner with whom Russia reached several unspecified agreements during Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad's recent trip to Russia on March 14. Putin berated ambassadors from the United States and European Union states and claimed that the West is responsible for the war in Ukraine and geopolitical confrontation with Russia.
Chinese Ambassador to the EU Fu Cong stated on April 5 that the Russian–Chinese joint statement declaring there were “no limits” to their ties released in February 2022 was misrepresented, calling “no limits” a “purely rhetorical statement.”[7] Fu added that China does not support Russia’s war in Ukraine and is not providing Russia weapons.
quote:
The Kremlin is likely increasingly struggling to maintain loyalty among lower-level regional authorities as it continues to place the onus on funding the war on Russian federal subjects. Independent Russian outlet Verstka reported on April 5 that the Kremlin is developing a “program of privileges” in regional administrations to maintain loyalty among lower-level local officials.[9] Verstka stated that the Russian presidential administration demanded that regional administrations create “initiative groups” to cater to the needs of regional civil servants, and that regional vice-governors are being encouraged in an oddly framed measure to install vending machines in administration buildings, secure preferential bank loans for employees, and offer officials free city parking.[10] Verstka reported that these measures in large part are meant to mitigate growing discontent about the continued costs of the war
quote:
Putin dismissed Colonel-General Nikolai Grechushkin from his post as Deputy Head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations on April 5.[13] ISW has also previously reported on recent investigations into and arrests of Russian Rosgvardia leadership, including Rosgvardia’s naval department head and Deputy Commander of Rosgvardia’s Central District.[14] Rosgvardia was notably created using personnel and resources from a variety of Russian security and military services, including the Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM). The Kremlin may be attempting to oust a slate of Rosgvardia and EMERCOM officials that have fallen out of Putin’s favor in an effort to crack down on Russian domestic security control.
quote:
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko arrived in Moscow on April 5 to meet with Putin and will meet with the Supreme Council of the Russia-Belarus Union State on April 6. Neither the Russian nor Belarusian governments published readouts by the data collection cutoff for this publication. ISW will provide updates on the meeting in the April 6 update.
quote:
Key Takeaways
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian forces will withdraw from Bakhmut to avoid encirclement if necessary, but do not yet assess the need to do so.
Russian President Vladimir Putin framed Russia’s efforts to consolidate control of occupied territories of Ukraine as a matter of internal security and rule of law during a meeting with the Russian National Security Council.
Putin also attempted to portray Russia as a respected world power against the backdrop of Chinese officials downplaying close relations with Russia.
Putin dismissed Colonel-General Nikolai Grechushkin from his post as Deputy Head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations on April 5.
Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to engage in positional battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces likely made gains in and around Bakhmut and continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.
Russian businessmen may be assuming a larger role in supporting the Russian MoD’s efforts to form irregular volunteer formations.
Russian Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova continues to deny international allegations that Russia is forcibly deporting Ukrainian children to Russia.
Posted on 4/5/23 at 9:40 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
Holy shite. These guys sound like they're going to be cannon fodder.
Cannon fodder? I don't understand that at all. These guys are getting real training, unlike some of the poor guys mobilized and sent straight to Bakhmut, or like most of the Russian mobiks.
And the article mentions that a number of these volunteers are guys re-enlisting, like the soldier who served last year but who was sent to the Moldovan border to defend against Transnistria instead of going to the front line.
But, as other posters have mentioned, the new infantry brigades are only a part of the invasion force. Experienced units will participate as well.
And all of these infantry will be going with by far the best armor and artillery on the battlefield. I'd much rather be these guys, fighting next to Leopards, Bradleys, and Strykers, than the Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Bakhmut with a bunch of old Soviet equipment.
Why do you say that they are cannon fodder?
Posted on 4/5/23 at 11:00 pm to GOP_Tiger
How about an Easter attack. A think all this weather shite is a red herring.
Posted on 4/5/23 at 11:14 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
How about an Easter attack. A think all this weather shite is a red herring.
Good Lord. You fricks are warped
Posted on 4/6/23 at 5:50 am to NPComb
Ok, I’ve had too much coffee this morning, so here goes. We’ve read that victory in a modern war depends on morale, mobility and logistics. All of which are optimized by good intelligence and the effective application of new technology.
Morale can be complex, however in this war as long as the Wagner Group remains tied down in Bakhmut, the Ukrainians have the advantage. In spades.
In regards to mobility, again, the Ukrainians will have the advantage. We have seen the equipment and training they have received, especially in the engineering aspects. On the other hand, all the Russian defensive structures have one thing in common – they are all fixed targets. With drone and satellite intelligence combined with precision weapon targeting, this kind of defense will not succeed in any timeframe.
Logistics will be both side’s biggest problem. The fixed defenses of the Russians will make their supply lines highly vulnerable, especially with the detection and targeting the Ukrainians have in place. For Ukraine, logistics will also be their biggest concern, as it is with any army on the move. I believe the primary issue will be fuel supply. This is what finally stopped the Ukrainian offensive into Luhansk last fall and it will have a serious effect again with the coming offensive. You love the fuel trucks but you know they won’t be enough, especially as the front extends further from the stepping off point. In this regard, at the top of the wish list is the large diameter 10Bar flexible fuel pipeline as used by armies since WW2. The 6” diameter can be delivered with light trucks and be installed at rates of (optimally) 30km per day. They are self-sealing and can be repaired easily and are not effected by mud, weather, equipment failure and if covered in trenches, any artillery outside of a direct hit.
Personnel wise, if the Ukrainians can take out the three Crimean bridges and isolate air and marine supply, they don’t have to put a single boot or shell onto the Province. Just let the isolation from supply (and water) work its magic on the morale and effectiveness of the Russians stationed there and in southern Kherson. As they starve, the Ukrainians can then concentrate their force in Donesk and Luhansk. That will be the real fight but the Ukrainians will apply a combined arms approach, which should be successful.
Finally, the Ukrainians have had a decided advantage in both intelligence and applied new technology since this war started. These two advantages will continue to drive the success of the offensive by giving the Ukrainians the ‘where and how’ of force application.
Too much Kool-Aid? Ok, let’s make a list of all the innovations the Russian army has demonstrated in this war. Add to it any successful combat operations since they started to run low on artillery ammunition. Add to that the stability of Russian leadership of any kind in the last year. Add to that the lack of mobilized and trained reserves in the Russian army and the shortage of artillery ammunition. Add to that the easily-accessible Russian border in both Donesk and Luhansk Provinces. Accessible to Russians looking for some relief.
Thirsty yet…?
.
Morale can be complex, however in this war as long as the Wagner Group remains tied down in Bakhmut, the Ukrainians have the advantage. In spades.
In regards to mobility, again, the Ukrainians will have the advantage. We have seen the equipment and training they have received, especially in the engineering aspects. On the other hand, all the Russian defensive structures have one thing in common – they are all fixed targets. With drone and satellite intelligence combined with precision weapon targeting, this kind of defense will not succeed in any timeframe.
Logistics will be both side’s biggest problem. The fixed defenses of the Russians will make their supply lines highly vulnerable, especially with the detection and targeting the Ukrainians have in place. For Ukraine, logistics will also be their biggest concern, as it is with any army on the move. I believe the primary issue will be fuel supply. This is what finally stopped the Ukrainian offensive into Luhansk last fall and it will have a serious effect again with the coming offensive. You love the fuel trucks but you know they won’t be enough, especially as the front extends further from the stepping off point. In this regard, at the top of the wish list is the large diameter 10Bar flexible fuel pipeline as used by armies since WW2. The 6” diameter can be delivered with light trucks and be installed at rates of (optimally) 30km per day. They are self-sealing and can be repaired easily and are not effected by mud, weather, equipment failure and if covered in trenches, any artillery outside of a direct hit.
Personnel wise, if the Ukrainians can take out the three Crimean bridges and isolate air and marine supply, they don’t have to put a single boot or shell onto the Province. Just let the isolation from supply (and water) work its magic on the morale and effectiveness of the Russians stationed there and in southern Kherson. As they starve, the Ukrainians can then concentrate their force in Donesk and Luhansk. That will be the real fight but the Ukrainians will apply a combined arms approach, which should be successful.
Finally, the Ukrainians have had a decided advantage in both intelligence and applied new technology since this war started. These two advantages will continue to drive the success of the offensive by giving the Ukrainians the ‘where and how’ of force application.
Too much Kool-Aid? Ok, let’s make a list of all the innovations the Russian army has demonstrated in this war. Add to it any successful combat operations since they started to run low on artillery ammunition. Add to that the stability of Russian leadership of any kind in the last year. Add to that the lack of mobilized and trained reserves in the Russian army and the shortage of artillery ammunition. Add to that the easily-accessible Russian border in both Donesk and Luhansk Provinces. Accessible to Russians looking for some relief.
Thirsty yet…?
.
Posted on 4/6/23 at 6:22 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:How many ears must one man have
Thirsty yet…?
Before he can hear people cry?
Yes, and how many deaths will it take 'til he knows
That too many people have died?
The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind
The answer is blowin' in the wind
Posted on 4/6/23 at 7:10 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 06 April 2023
As claimed on Russian social media, the Russian MoD has highly likely dismissed Colonel-General Rustam Muradov as commander of the Eastern Group of Forces (EGF) in Ukraine.
The EGF under Muradov has suffered exceptionally heavy casualties in recent months as its poorly conceived assaults repeatedly failed to capture the Donetsk Oblast town of Vuhledar. The operations attracted intense public criticism from across the spectrum of Russian commentators - including Muradov's own troops.
Muradov took over the EGF after its disastrous attempt to assault Kyiv from the north-west during the initial full-scale invasion. He is the most senior Russian military dismissal of 2023 so far, but more are likely as Russia continues to fail to achieve its objectives in the Donbas.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 06 April 2023
As claimed on Russian social media, the Russian MoD has highly likely dismissed Colonel-General Rustam Muradov as commander of the Eastern Group of Forces (EGF) in Ukraine.
The EGF under Muradov has suffered exceptionally heavy casualties in recent months as its poorly conceived assaults repeatedly failed to capture the Donetsk Oblast town of Vuhledar. The operations attracted intense public criticism from across the spectrum of Russian commentators - including Muradov's own troops.
Muradov took over the EGF after its disastrous attempt to assault Kyiv from the north-west during the initial full-scale invasion. He is the most senior Russian military dismissal of 2023 so far, but more are likely as Russia continues to fail to achieve its objectives in the Donbas.
This post was edited on 4/6/23 at 7:15 am
Posted on 4/6/23 at 7:14 am to cypher
US Sending Experimental Anti-Drone Weapons to Ukraine
The U.S. is sending anti-drone missiles as part of an experimental platform to help Ukraine down the Iranian-built drones that have devastated its energy infrastructure, according to representatives of government contracting company SAIC.
On Tuesday, the U.S. announced a large package of military aid to Ukraine focused on air defense, including what it called “10 mobile c-UAS laser-guided rocket systems.”
That follows a January competition held by the U.S. Army, which was seeking a system to fight off Shahed-136 suicide drones. SAIC, which participated in the competition, is in the running to send ten of the weapons to Ukraine, a company representative told Defense One on the sidelines of the Association of the U.S. Army’s Global Force Symposium last week.
In the January test, SAIC used BAE’s APKWS laser-guided rockets, which achieved a 100-percent hit rate, the company representative said.
And at less than $30,000 apiece, the rockets are cheaper than Ukraine’s larger air-defense missiles, said Greg Fortier, the vice president of SAIC’s Army Business Unit.
The system also includes a M240 machine-gun mount and an electronic warfare system that can take control of a commercial drone, including any DJI-brand system not operating with advanced encryption, said Jeremy Davidson, an SAIC systems engineer. DJI drones are frequently used by both sides in Ukraine.
Fortier said their system acquired the drone at over six miles away and struck it at three miles, much farther than the Army’s 1.2-mile requirement.
Defense One
The U.S. is sending anti-drone missiles as part of an experimental platform to help Ukraine down the Iranian-built drones that have devastated its energy infrastructure, according to representatives of government contracting company SAIC.
On Tuesday, the U.S. announced a large package of military aid to Ukraine focused on air defense, including what it called “10 mobile c-UAS laser-guided rocket systems.”
That follows a January competition held by the U.S. Army, which was seeking a system to fight off Shahed-136 suicide drones. SAIC, which participated in the competition, is in the running to send ten of the weapons to Ukraine, a company representative told Defense One on the sidelines of the Association of the U.S. Army’s Global Force Symposium last week.
In the January test, SAIC used BAE’s APKWS laser-guided rockets, which achieved a 100-percent hit rate, the company representative said.
And at less than $30,000 apiece, the rockets are cheaper than Ukraine’s larger air-defense missiles, said Greg Fortier, the vice president of SAIC’s Army Business Unit.
The system also includes a M240 machine-gun mount and an electronic warfare system that can take control of a commercial drone, including any DJI-brand system not operating with advanced encryption, said Jeremy Davidson, an SAIC systems engineer. DJI drones are frequently used by both sides in Ukraine.
Fortier said their system acquired the drone at over six miles away and struck it at three miles, much farther than the Army’s 1.2-mile requirement.
Defense One
Posted on 4/6/23 at 7:20 am to NPComb
quote:we should some more literal billions in cold hard cash! To literal nazis!
You fricks are warped
Posted on 4/6/23 at 7:21 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Thirsty yet…?
And then when all of that happens and Ukraine is clearly winning this war, a worn, desperate, defeated and vitally ill Putin begins dropping nukes because he does not give a frick. Maybe some are directed at us.
Then what?
Posted on 4/6/23 at 8:24 am to dnm3305
We would go to political board where this conversation belongs.
Posted on 4/6/23 at 8:26 am to dnm3305
So what's the answer? We just let men with nukes take whatever they want cuz Armageddon? Even Ghandi chose the side of the Brits in WWII. Sometimes you have to fight. It sucks but mad men have to be stopped or they will swallow the world whole.
This post was edited on 4/6/23 at 8:29 am
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