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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/5/23 at 11:47 am to IAmNERD
Posted on 4/5/23 at 11:47 am to IAmNERD
After listening to the new War on the Rocks podcast with Michael Kofman and the Foreign Office podcast with Sir Lawrence Freedman, I now believe that there is almost zero chance that the war will end this year.
If the Ukrainian spring offensive does not yield success, they will simply keep attacking in new places. They still have lots of equipment coming in the summer or later (e.g. 31 Abrams tanks and 100 Leopard 1 tanks). They will beg NATO for more equipment and get some, but there's almost no chance that they will be ready to give up on taking more of their territory back before next spring and agree to a ceasefire that freeze the conflict and result in the semi-permanent loss of land that Ukraine needs to be secure and economically viable.
On the other hand, if the Ukrainian spring offensive is successful, and they are able to reach the Sea of Azov by midsummer, then what? I have read a couple of fantasies that Ukrainian troops will then take Mariupol and then swing left and encircle Donetsk City -- I think those are silly.
At that point, Ukraine will have used up the ammo that they had set aside for the offensive, and they will certainly have a number of tanks, IFVs, etc. that have been destroyed, damaged, or have broken down. The troops who would have successfully completed that offensive would need some leave. So, I think that the expectation would be that the offensive reaches the Sea of Azov, and then there's an operational pause before Ukraine starts another offensive against Mariupol or in the northeast -- and that pause gives Russia the opportunity to retrench.
But Russia, according to Freedman, is unlikely at that point to even be ready for a ceasefire that would freeze the lines of conflict. Russia has "annexed" a great deal of territory that it does not control, and any ceasefire that happens without full Russian control of the Donbas will be a bitter pill to swallow. No, the experts I read and listen to all seem sure, and I agree, that Russia is not going to be ready for a ceasefire until (at a minimum) it loses Crimea, Mariupol, or Severodonetsk/Lysychansk. Even if you assume a successful Ukrainian spring offensive means that NATO allies give it a lot more equipment (and I'm skeptical about that), then it's hard to see any of that happening before mid to late fall.
And, of course, when Putin is ready for a "ceasefire," Ukraine will resist that, because a ceasefire will result in a frozen conflict and a Ukrainian loss of territory. But it will be interesting to see how different nations respond at that point, because there will be a number who will then start extolling the virtues of peace and start pressuring Zelensky to accept the ceasefire and end the war.
Because, as hard as a ceasefire will be for Russia to accept, a negotiated settlement will be much more difficult. Freedman makes that point very well. A negotiated settlement would involve Russia returned kidnapped Ukrainian children (and taking them away from their new "adoptive parents"). It would involve reparations for the incredible damage caused by Russia's invasion, from building destruction, to payments to victims of rape, to demining -- to say nothing of the war crimes indictment against Putin. Any true negotiated settlement that would be acceptable to Ukraine would bankrupt Russia, so they won't do it. Even if Russia is completely driven out of Ukrainian territory, back to the 1991 borders, there's unlikely to be an actual peace treaty, a true settlement.
No, the war will simply end with a ceasefire whenever both sides have exhausted themselves and the costs have become too great. Lots of wars end with ceasefires that simply become permanent, such as in Korea. That's the likely eventual outcome of this war, but that's very unlikely to happen in the next year.
TLDR: I had previously thought that there was a chance that the war could end as early as this fall, and I was wrong about that.
If the Ukrainian spring offensive does not yield success, they will simply keep attacking in new places. They still have lots of equipment coming in the summer or later (e.g. 31 Abrams tanks and 100 Leopard 1 tanks). They will beg NATO for more equipment and get some, but there's almost no chance that they will be ready to give up on taking more of their territory back before next spring and agree to a ceasefire that freeze the conflict and result in the semi-permanent loss of land that Ukraine needs to be secure and economically viable.
On the other hand, if the Ukrainian spring offensive is successful, and they are able to reach the Sea of Azov by midsummer, then what? I have read a couple of fantasies that Ukrainian troops will then take Mariupol and then swing left and encircle Donetsk City -- I think those are silly.
At that point, Ukraine will have used up the ammo that they had set aside for the offensive, and they will certainly have a number of tanks, IFVs, etc. that have been destroyed, damaged, or have broken down. The troops who would have successfully completed that offensive would need some leave. So, I think that the expectation would be that the offensive reaches the Sea of Azov, and then there's an operational pause before Ukraine starts another offensive against Mariupol or in the northeast -- and that pause gives Russia the opportunity to retrench.
But Russia, according to Freedman, is unlikely at that point to even be ready for a ceasefire that would freeze the lines of conflict. Russia has "annexed" a great deal of territory that it does not control, and any ceasefire that happens without full Russian control of the Donbas will be a bitter pill to swallow. No, the experts I read and listen to all seem sure, and I agree, that Russia is not going to be ready for a ceasefire until (at a minimum) it loses Crimea, Mariupol, or Severodonetsk/Lysychansk. Even if you assume a successful Ukrainian spring offensive means that NATO allies give it a lot more equipment (and I'm skeptical about that), then it's hard to see any of that happening before mid to late fall.
And, of course, when Putin is ready for a "ceasefire," Ukraine will resist that, because a ceasefire will result in a frozen conflict and a Ukrainian loss of territory. But it will be interesting to see how different nations respond at that point, because there will be a number who will then start extolling the virtues of peace and start pressuring Zelensky to accept the ceasefire and end the war.
Because, as hard as a ceasefire will be for Russia to accept, a negotiated settlement will be much more difficult. Freedman makes that point very well. A negotiated settlement would involve Russia returned kidnapped Ukrainian children (and taking them away from their new "adoptive parents"). It would involve reparations for the incredible damage caused by Russia's invasion, from building destruction, to payments to victims of rape, to demining -- to say nothing of the war crimes indictment against Putin. Any true negotiated settlement that would be acceptable to Ukraine would bankrupt Russia, so they won't do it. Even if Russia is completely driven out of Ukrainian territory, back to the 1991 borders, there's unlikely to be an actual peace treaty, a true settlement.
No, the war will simply end with a ceasefire whenever both sides have exhausted themselves and the costs have become too great. Lots of wars end with ceasefires that simply become permanent, such as in Korea. That's the likely eventual outcome of this war, but that's very unlikely to happen in the next year.
TLDR: I had previously thought that there was a chance that the war could end as early as this fall, and I was wrong about that.
This post was edited on 4/5/23 at 11:54 am
2
Posted on 4/5/23 at 11:50 am to GOP_Tiger
Got any new weather updates for us?
Posted on 4/5/23 at 11:59 am to notiger1997
LINK
That's a prediction of 2 inches of rain across the front lines between now and the middle of this month.
Ukraine had a warm and dry winter, which led to predictions that the spring offensive could start early, but they have had a very wet and cold spring so far, so the mud is going to stay for a while. It's not going to be good attacking weather for a while.
quote:
Currently a "blocking" pattern over Europe (left: 500 hPa anomaly) which will provide rain & snow over eastern Europe and dry conditions in western Europe; Carpathian Mtns will see significant snow/rain along with east/central Ukraine through April 15th (right: total precip).
That's a prediction of 2 inches of rain across the front lines between now and the middle of this month.
Ukraine had a warm and dry winter, which led to predictions that the spring offensive could start early, but they have had a very wet and cold spring so far, so the mud is going to stay for a while. It's not going to be good attacking weather for a while.
This post was edited on 4/5/23 at 12:01 pm
Posted on 4/5/23 at 12:40 pm to GOP_Tiger
- Czechia announced another $30 million in military aid today from existing stores.
- Poland announced more aid (after Zelensky visited Warsaw) including an additional 50 of the Rosomak amphibious IFVs (a week ago, the first 100 were agreed upon).
- Poland announced more aid (after Zelensky visited Warsaw) including an additional 50 of the Rosomak amphibious IFVs (a week ago, the first 100 were agreed upon).
Posted on 4/5/23 at 1:13 pm to GOP_Tiger
Just in case we get any more trolls saying that Americans do not support Ukraine, here's a new poll:
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:06 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
On the other hand, if the Ukrainian spring offensive is successful, and they are able to reach the Sea of Azov by midsummer, then what? I have read a couple of fantasies that Ukrainian troops will then take Mariupol and then swing left and encircle Donetsk City -- I think those are silly.
The link below is an interactive map of russian military installations that could be under threat if the Ukes reach Berdyansk for instance. Could get interesting in more directions than just Kerch.
Need to zoom in some to see all the airfields etc,
Russian Military Forces: Interactive Map
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:46 pm to GOP_Tiger
Siding with Ukraine does not necessarily mean providing them with money and arms.
Would be interesting what a poll asking more detailed questions on the level of support people favor.
Would be interesting what a poll asking more detailed questions on the level of support people favor.
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:47 pm to TigersnJeeps
quote:would still be overwhelmingly supportive
Would be interesting what a poll asking more detailed questions on the level of support people favor.
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:48 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
an additional 50 of the Rosomak amphibious IFVs (a week ago, the first 100 were agreed upon).
So 150 total?
Posted on 4/5/23 at 2:59 pm to cypher
More undisciplined smoking of cigarettes
Posted on 4/5/23 at 3:08 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
would still be overwhelmingly supportive
Eh, I don't know that it would be today. To the casual observer, the war appears to be a stalemate at the moment. I've seen a number of indicators that suggest that support is slipping significantly, as Americans overwhelmingly don't want taxpayer dollars wasted.
That's why the success of Ukraine's spring offensive is so important: everyone loves a winner, and support will go back up if the the offensive is successful.
quote:
So 150 total?
Yes, a total now of 150 Rosomak amphibious IFVs. When you add in the 50 armored riverine patrol boats we've given and the pontoon system the Dutch announced last month, it's clear that Ukraine really wants the ability to do a Dnipro crossing. That doesn't mean that they will definitely do one as part of the spring offensive, but they wanted to have the option.
The 150 amphibious Rosomaks would also be ideal, of course, in a crossing of the Syvash in an attempt to retake Crimea.
Posted on 4/5/23 at 3:28 pm to cypher
Is their equivalent of the pentagon, or just a built owned by the military?
Posted on 4/5/23 at 4:06 pm to jeffsdad
Reuters:
Ukraine trains 40,000 storm brigade troops for counter-offensive
Ukraine trains 40,000 storm brigade troops for counter-offensive
quote:
CHERKASY REGION, Ukraine, April 5 (Reuters) - More than a year into Russia's full-scale invasion, Aleks, a translator with no prior military experience, was advancing through forest with rifle raised, training to ambush enemy forces in one of Ukraine's newest military units.
Border of Steel is one of eight new storm brigades totalling 40,000 soldiers that Ukraine wants to use during a counter-offensive against Russian occupiers in coming weeks or months.
"I want the war to be over as soon as possible and I hope the strike brigade will make it happen a lot faster," Aleks told Reuters at a training facility in a secret location in Ukraine.
quote:
The new brigades, drafted by the Interior Ministry, will fight alongside regular army units bolstered by new Western battle tanks and thousands of fresh troops trained by allied armies outside Ukraine.
The brigades have catchy names: Hurricane, Spartan, Chervona Kalyna, Frontier, Rage, Azov and Kara Dag, a mountain in Crimea.
Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko told Reuters he believed Ukraine still had considerable mobilisation potential and that his recruits included women, people with no military experience and former police officers and servicemen.
quote:
Ukraine launched its recruitment campaign for the storm brigades at the beginning of February.
Klymenko said it would take up to four months to train civilians without experience, but that ex-police officers or soldiers could be trained in two.
In an undisclosed location on March 24, fighters of the Border of Steel brigade were doing target practice, training to fly drones and practising how to evacuate and rescue wounded soldiers.
A shooting instructor, call sign Hassid, said the recruits were absorbing the training quickly and were highly motivated.
Border of Steel is commanded by Valeriy Padytel, who led Ukraine's border guard forces in the defence of now-occupied Mariupol where he was captured after holding out in a huge steel works. He was freed in a prisoner swap last September.
quote:
Rather than the army, the brigades are overseen by the Interior Ministry, like other units including the Azov Regiment, which gained global prominence for holding out against invading forces at Azovstal steel works in besieged Mariupol last year.
Klymenko said 2.5% of the brigades were made up of female fighters: "Our women are patriotic enough, strong and they hate the enemy no less than men, they want to serve."
New recruit Vakha, 21, was initially drafted into the army, but requested to be transferred to the Border of Steel, he said.
He praised the training on offer and said he thought it would provide a more rapid route to the east where the fiercest fighting is raging.
Dmytro, another fighter who worked in a currency exchange office in civilian life, said he had enlisted in the brigade because of desire for revenge and frontline fighting.
He signed up with the army last year, but was sent to defend the Ukrainian border with the Moldovan breakaway region of Transdniestria, where a small contingent of Russian troops are stationed but where there have been no hostilities so far.
"I wanted to join even more because I want revenge, as harsh as it may sound in the 21st century. We have to get revenge for all our people, for the murdered children," he said.
Posted on 4/5/23 at 4:14 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
That's a prediction of 2 inches of rain across the front lines between now and the middle of this month.
What about Southern Ukraine?
Posted on 4/5/23 at 4:26 pm to jeffsdad
Seems like their headquarters according to the press...
A fire ripped through the Russian Ministry of Defence tonight, just a short distance from the Kremlin.
The blaze broke out as Vladimir Putin was holding talks with the Belarusian despot Alexander Lukashenko.
Dark smoke was seen gushing from the third-floor windows in the defence ministry headquarters at 19 Znamenka Street. Footage shared by state media outlets on social media showed a plume of spiraling smoke. Around 50 people were evacuated as flames ripped through the headquarters.
Daily Mail
In any case it's contained - not being described as a major fire.
A fire ripped through the Russian Ministry of Defence tonight, just a short distance from the Kremlin.
The blaze broke out as Vladimir Putin was holding talks with the Belarusian despot Alexander Lukashenko.
Dark smoke was seen gushing from the third-floor windows in the defence ministry headquarters at 19 Znamenka Street. Footage shared by state media outlets on social media showed a plume of spiraling smoke. Around 50 people were evacuated as flames ripped through the headquarters.
Daily Mail
In any case it's contained - not being described as a major fire.
This post was edited on 4/5/23 at 4:28 pm
Posted on 4/5/23 at 4:26 pm to GOP_Tiger
While it has been talked about since the middle of last year in now looks like pen has been put to paper. Poland will produce around 820 K2 tanks locally, bringing the total to 1000, though without a specified timeframe.
Given the potential for the Ukraine war to stagnate into a protracted conflict if the coming Ukraine offensive is not successful, or even if it is given some of the views and information expressed recently (thought I take these with a grain of salt as potential disinformation), one of the outcomes of means Poland would be in a very strong position to supply Ukraine with further arms and an attitude to continue doing so which is unlikely to waver given their common interest against Russia.
Army Recognition.com - Poland and South Korea sign agreement on formation of consortium to produce K2 tanks in Poland
The First News.com Polish and Korean consortium set up to produce K2 tanks in Poland.
Edit: Clarity
Given the potential for the Ukraine war to stagnate into a protracted conflict if the coming Ukraine offensive is not successful, or even if it is given some of the views and information expressed recently (thought I take these with a grain of salt as potential disinformation), one of the outcomes of means Poland would be in a very strong position to supply Ukraine with further arms and an attitude to continue doing so which is unlikely to waver given their common interest against Russia.
Army Recognition.com - Poland and South Korea sign agreement on formation of consortium to produce K2 tanks in Poland
The First News.com Polish and Korean consortium set up to produce K2 tanks in Poland.
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 4/5/23 at 4:30 pm
Posted on 4/5/23 at 4:30 pm to CitizenK
quote:
What about Southern Ukraine?
Heavy rain on Tuesday:
Posted on 4/5/23 at 5:11 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Heavy rain on Tuesday:
Well it is mud season. Models show normal precipitation the first half of April for the Southern Front and Crimea.
Posted on 4/5/23 at 6:59 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
CHERKASY REGION, Ukraine, April 5 (Reuters) - More than a year into Russia's full-scale invasion, Aleks, a translator with no prior military experience, was advancing through forest with rifle raised, training to ambush enemy forces in one of Ukraine's newest military units.
Border of Steel is one of eight new storm brigades totalling 40,000 soldiers that Ukraine wants to use during a counter-offensive against Russian occupiers in coming weeks or months.
"I want the war to be over as soon as possible and I hope the strike brigade will make it happen a lot faster," Aleks told Reuters at a training facility in a secret location in Ukraine.
quote:
The new brigades, drafted by the Interior Ministry, will fight alongside regular army units bolstered by new Western battle tanks and thousands of fresh troops trained by allied armies outside Ukraine.
The brigades have catchy names: Hurricane, Spartan, Chervona Kalyna, Frontier, Rage, Azov and Kara Dag, a mountain in Crimea.
Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko told Reuters he believed Ukraine still had considerable mobilisation potential and that his recruits included women, people with no military experience and former police officers and servicemen.
Holy shite. These guys sound like they're going to be cannon fodder.
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