re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Politico reporter:

quote:

---

DOD is aiming to deliver the Abrams to Ukraine by fall 2023, defense official tells me

---

quote:

---

The M113, the Ukrainians love them.

---

i would image they love anything that wasnt made in the USSR or Russia.....

Western Equipment is not on the same playing field as the Russian equivalent

Mark Urban, editor for BBC News, has a very important Twitter thread:

LINK

quote:

---

The most important single factor in feeding the Ukraine war is the supply of artillery ammunition (nb 152mm and 122mm for RU, those plus 155mm and 105mm for UA). I am now thinking Ukraine will get what it needs. The figures are mind boggling... 1/

In the run up to EU meetings this week @oleksiireznikov told European ministers Ukraine needs 350,000 rounds a month to sustain operations, of which 120k are rounds of 155mm needed for western supplied artillery (1.44m a year). Without that things slow right down. Now we know 2/

That EU ministers have agreed an 'ambition' to provide 1m rounds of 155mm in the next 12 months, with some combination of stripping their existing stocks (frankly I didn't think they had 1m...) and making new ones 3/

While there are some doubts about the exact sequencing of this EU supply, ie how much will be got to Ukraine in the next 2-3 key months, we also now know that a package announced by the US on 24/2 involves an additional 1 million 155mm rounds 4/

The US already sent 1.1m during the first year of the war &, since it can't scale up production fast enough, is having to run down stocks pre-positioned in places like Israel & South Korea (a risk, clearly). The other 230k needed each month includes mortars, rockets etc 5/

So what about Russia? Early on in the war I heard estimates they had a stockpile of 16m artillery rounds & rockets. Usage in the first year may have been 6-7m but despite the apparent surplus western officials are cagey about what RU has left 6/

One western expert told me 'we don't know, because the Russians themselves don't know' how many million shells are still in storage. He added that many of their stocks may be decades old and unusable. What seems clear is that... 7/

Russian hopes of buying large amounts of artillery ammo from North Korea or China have not (yet) materialised. "We don't see evidence" of Chinese weapons supply, one western official said today. And we know Wagner & others have grumbled about low supply of ammo 8/

But I think the salient conclusion is that while Russia *may well* have enough shells for the months ahead, we have sufficient transparency on the western picture to know that the US and EU are gearing up to send huge stocks incl 2m 155mm shells to Ukraine this year 9/END

---

So, the US package last month actually included 1 million 155 shells. Europe is going to get about 500,000 for Ukraine now, and another 500,000 for later in the year. The UK is helping coordinate 152mm shell purchases and deliveries.

Mark Urban thinks that Ukraine may be set on ammo. I agree. They have what they need for the spring offensive and aren't going to run out anytime soon.

I also liked his quote about Russian ammo stocks that says that we don't know because Russia doesn't know -- I feel sure that is correct.

Im thinking June.


But with Bahkmut and another city in a salient maybe they start sooner to relieve pressure on their forces?

Also the UK DU armor must be true as the Russians are now complaining LINK

Guess they'll blowing up more apartment buildings now.

Heating up. Whether false flag sort of deal or not, probably doesn’t matter. Heating up.

quote:

---

will depend on t weather (end of mud season) and delivery of equipment and ammo for the west, and how effective they are from now to Go time on interdicting russian supply lines. IMO the earlier they can launch the better. the longer give russia time to move troops around.

---

I have bounced back and forth. On the one hand, we know that lots of promised Western equipment may not arrive for a bit. The 100 Leopard 1 tanks, for example won't start arriving until June (they still need refurbishment).

But I think that the political imperative is critical. Ukraine cannot wait too long for a victory. It's interesting, because the political imperative caused Russia to begin its offensive too early, before they had truly prepared for it, and it has resulted in the failure of that offensive.

I don't think Zelensky will force the start of the offensive before Ukraine is ready, and I think that they will basically be ready by mid-April, when the ground should be dry enough. The Ukrainians training on Leopards in Spain finished last week, those in the UK training on Challengers are finishing up now, etc. The German Marders are arriving in Ukraine now, Norway announced its Leopard deliveries yesterday -- I think that, by the end of this month, Ukraine will basically have most of the big deliveries.

So, my guess is that the offensive starts between mid-April and mid-May.

quote:

---

Explain it to me in simple geopolitical terms what it means if this area were to fire up with a war?

---

Certainly welcome more knowledgeable input, but:

Russia and Iran support Armenia, Iran of course has been supporting Russia in the current Russia/Ukraine war

Israel supports Azerbaijan

Israel and Iran are obviously enemies of their own that are continuing to grow friction.

We obviously greatly support Israel.

Just another flashpoint in the same general region of a major conflict, but adds much more complexity in alliance entanglement.

I’m not a ME expert, but I would imagine other ME nations have an interest in one side or the other. Turkey also supports Azerbaijan as well.

quote:

---

Certainly welcome more knowledgeable input, but:

Russia and Iran support Armenia, Iran of course has been supporting Russia in the current Russia/Ukraine war

Israel supports Azerbaijan

Israel and Iran are obviously enemies of their own that are continuing to grow friction.

We obviously greatly support Israel.

Just another flashpoint in the same general region of a major conflict, but adds much more complexity in alliance entanglement.

I’m not a ME expert, but I would imagine other ME nations have an interest in one side or the other. Turkey also supports Azerbaijan as well.

---

Iran and Turkey are rivals for influence in the Middle East. Israel and Turkey have been allies of sorts. Bayraktar TB2 technology was sold to Turkey by Israel over a decade ago.

I have seen you post this contention repeatedly about Israel selling the Bayraktar technology to Turkey.
However much of this technology was developed by a Turk, educated at MIT, who married well into the Turkish elites.
What sort of technology do you contend was sold to Turkey by Israel?
Thanks.