re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Here's ISW's map for today of Bakhmut, showing a small Russian advance in the NW of the city.

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How about you suck my cuck then. Why do you post here if you don’t like it? You’re a little troll bitch that’s why. You must lead a really pathetic life to get joy from being a troll. Maybe try getting laid.

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Not sure of the context as a casual viewer of this great thread, but either you're a day drinker or you have issues.

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The Ukrainian Defense Ministry is interested in the systems, but they are viewed as less critical because Ukraine has been able to intercept the drones between 75–90% of the time, the Ukrainian officials said.

No way that figure is accurate.

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Call it 50% and you know you are within 50%.

From ISW's report tonight:

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The relatively slower pace of Russian attacks on and around Bakhmut on March 16, coupled with relatively fewer Russian claims on advances in this area, supports ISW’s March 15 assessment that the Wagner Group offensive on Bakhmut is likely nearing culmination.

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I think that this Russian offensive and the horror of fighting every day in nasty weather for months has really damaged Ukrainian morale. (I think that it's damaging Russian morale even worse, but that's another topic.)

Looking at Twitter, it seems that most Ukrainians are discussing the story of a Ukrainian Lt. Col. who goes by the callsign Kupol, who disobeyed orders and gave an on-the-record interview to the Washington Post, complaining that he gets newly mobilized men so green that they are scared to fire a gun because the noise is scary, etc.

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After a year of war, Kupol, a lieutenant colonel, said his battalion is unrecognizable. Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops.

“I get 100 new soldiers,” Kupol said. “They don’t give me any time to prepare them. They say, ‘Take them into the battle.’ They just drop everything and run. That’s it. Do you understand why? Because the soldier doesn’t shoot. I ask him why, and he says, ‘I’m afraid of the sound of the shot.’ And for some reason, he has never thrown a grenade. … We need NATO instructors in all our training centers, and our instructors need to be sent over there into the trenches. Because they failed in their task.”

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After the Washington Post story came out, Kupol was demoted, and he then resigned.

And it made perfect sense for him to be demoted and punished, because he knowingly disobeyed orders in giving the interview to the Post. No military can effectively function when its soldiers can disobey orders without consequence. And how could Kupol expect his orders to be obeyed, when he doesn't obey his own orders. It's insane.

But lots of Ukrainians seemingly fail to grasp this basic fact, apparently. Twitter is full of Ukrainians supporting him and saying that he was standing up for his men, that he deserves freedom of speech as Ukraine is fighting to be a free country, etc. Here's more on the fallout from the Post:

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“These are exactly the kind of people we need at the front,” Oleksiy Goncharenko, a member of Ukraine’s parliament, wrote on his Telegram channel about Kupol. “He emphasized in the interview that the soldiers should be trained even better. Of course, the better prepared a warrior is, the better he fights. What is wrong here? I believe that this story should be publicized.”

Another lawmaker, Volodymyr Ariev, wrote on Facebook: “This government wants to hear only what they want.”

Yuri Butusov, a prominent Ukrainian war reporter, said that Kupol’s troops are the ones who will suffer from his departure. Butusov expressed hope that Kupol would be reinstated and that the military leadership would be willing to hear hard truths.

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I just think that the loss of Bakhmut would be a significant blow to Ukrainian morale right now.

And it appears that Wagner may be running out of gas, and Ukraine may actually be able to hold the city. It would be one thing if Ukraine were to lose a lot of men trying to fight in Bakhmut, and then lose them all anyway. But successfully holding the city could crush Russian morale, and it could destroy Wagner.

Today's ISW report talks about a new supposed plot (likely fabricated by Prigozhin), alleging that Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev wants to undermine and “neutralize” the Wagner Group.

I personally think that it helps Ukraine to have Prigozhin launching into daily rants and conspiracy theories against the Russian MoD and officials such as Patrushev. I think these things damage Russia.

On the other hand, if Wagner takes Bakhmut, Prigozhin will likely stop his attacks on Shoigu, Gerasimov & co. and instead simply gloat and brag about how awesome his fighters are, etc. -- and that would really help Wagner's recruiting efforts to replace all the men who've died attacking Bakhmut. I think that Ukraine wants to basically finish off Wagner once and for all, instead of giving Prigozhin what he needs to entice another large group of young men to fight for Wagner.

This might be an unpopular opinion about Kupol and I absolutely agree with his stance because he’s right on all accounts. However, as a former officer myself it was absolutely necessary to reprimand him for what he did. The chain of command means nothing if subordinate officers go rogue talking to the press like he did even though he was right. It sets a terrible precedent to the average enlisted soldier to see his commanding officer go out on his own against the army as a whole and if they see their officers doing it then the soldiers will follow their lead. That’s why there are the proper channels to go through when a subordinate officer has a grievance to his command.

Now that I got that out of the way, Kopul speaks the truth and I’m sure Ukrainian high command knows it too but it’s important to keep a united, strong front. He should be eventually reinstated and given another command because battlefield experienced officers are short on the Ukranian side. I would turn this bad press into something positive and reinstate Kopul to train new soldiers. As far as Bakhmut I’m honestly torn. I see the pros and cons of holding the line as well as a fighting retreat. You always want to save experienced soldiers lives if you can when you are short on them as it is. I know NATO countries are training troops here and there but we are half assing that just like we are with armament shipments. We could be sending SOFs to train 5x the number of men that we are presently. Time has run out. If the west doesn’t fully commit now and act on it then all we are doing is spilling more Ukrainian blood than would be necessary because the ending would be all but assured. This can be stopped but the west must commit and not just say they are committed. Ukraine can beat Russia off and to the negotiating table with the proper weapons and training but what’s being done right now isn’t nearly enough, especially if Putin does another mass mobilization.

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The relatively slower pace of Russian attacks on and around Bakhmut on March 16, coupled with relatively fewer Russian claims on advances in this area, supports ISW’s March 15 assessment that the Wagner Group offensive on Bakhmut is likely nearing culmination.

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Yeah I'm having a hard time with this as they've been saying this since Dec 27th. I can't link to the post but it's on this page

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Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to reassure the Russian public that the war in Ukraine will not have significant long-term economic consequences, likely as part of the Kremlin’s effort to prepare Russians for a protracted war. Putin delivered a speech at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow on March 16 in which he claimed that the Russian economy has steadily grown in the past eight months following a roughly five percent contraction over the first months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.[26] Putin attempted to portray Russia as not being isolated from the international economy by claiming that Russian trade with fast-growing markets has increased at double-digit rates.[27] Putin claimed that the domestic Russian economy will experience sustainable long-term growth and forecasted that Russian industries will significantly grow as they fill niches previously held by Western firms that have left the country and stopped doing business with Russia.[28] Putin suggested that the entire Russian economy will expand in a manner similar to the Russian agricultural sector’s growth following 2014 Western sanctions regimes associated with Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea.[29] Putin claimed that Russia’s supposed economic resilience has disproven Western analysts who predicted empty store shelves and massive shortages of goods in Russia because of Western sanctions.[30]

Putin’s portrayal of a healthy and resilient Russian economy is at odds with Russia’s issues with sanctions-related supply chain bottlenecks, the Russian defense industrial base’s (DIB) struggle to meet the Russian military's needs in Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s substantial projected budget deficit problems.[31] Putin likely sought to reassure the Russian public as the Kremlin increasingly signals to Russians that the Kremlin intends to fight a protracted war in Ukraine and implicitly consign the Russian economy to an indefinite period of stringent Western sanctions.[32] The Kremlin also likely sought to reassure the Russian public that war-related production will not detrimentally impact the rest of the Russian economy as Russian officials continue efforts to gradually mobilize more of Russia’s DIB.[33] The Kremlin will likely struggle to not contradict its different informational lines of effort as it attempts to reassure the Russian public about the Russian economy, set informational conditions for a protracted war, and mobilize a wider portion of Russia’s DIB.

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Key Takeaways

The Russian Federal State Security Service (FSB) appears to be trying to penetrate the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) in a way that is reminiscent of the KGB’s involvement with the Soviet military and industrial base.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that he received a press question exposing a plot spearheaded by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev to undermine and “neutralize” the Wagner Group.

Western news agencies confirmed that Chinese companies have sold military and dual-use equipment to unidentified Russian entities. These sales appear small in scale but could alleviate strain on Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) and circumvent Western attempts to limit Russian access to microchips.

Syrian President Bashar Assad used a staged interview with Russian outlet RIA Novosti to amplify notable Russian information operations.

Polish President Andrzej Duda stated that Poland will give Ukraine four MiG-29 fighter jets.

Russian’s decision to redeploy elements of its “peacekeeping force” from Nagorno-Karabakh to Ukraine is eroding Russia’s influence with Armenia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to reassure the Russian public that the war in Ukraine will not have significant long term economic consequences, likely as part of the Kremlin’s effort to prepare Russians for a protracted war.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line

Russian forces continued advancing in and around Bakhmut and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City line and in Western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted localized assaults in Zaporizhia Oblast.

Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces increased their naval presence in the Black Sea.

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I’m pretty sure that is just a spot on the fighter’s canopy in that shot.

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RAAM is a specialist artillery shell which scatters anti-armour mines up to 17km away from the firing unit. In some instances, Ukraine has launched the mines over and behind advancing Russian units, causing disarray when Russian vehicles attempt to withdraw.

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With all due respect to context, that is fascinating.

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A spot on the canopy would move with the canopy. This falls downward and to the left

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The downwards motion appears to be from the camera turning perpendicular to the spot as it tracks backwards towards the drone and also as the plane starts to bank across the front of the drone after it passes.

Slowed down the spot is out of focus like the rest of the canopy from the beginning of its appearance meaning that it is at a similar distance. It also does not start in focus nor shift in focus as it moves across the face of the drone when it would be at a similar distance to the drone, which is in focus. If you watch the edge of the canopy in the last second it is also rotating in time with the spot.

Also, it may be due to the timing of the videos but there looks to be significant cloud cover in the Russian video while there is little in the video from the drone. According to weather satellites there was no cloud cover in the areas the drone is meant to have been intercepted and later damaged, though the reports of it's location may be off.