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Posted on 12/28/22 at 7:47 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I don't understand how Russia can possibly stop Ukraine from taking back its territory if it doesn't have artillery shells... Why isn't this being treated as big news?
My guess is that we've been hearing that the Russian economy, the Russian war machine etc has been on the verge of collapse since March.
Posted on 12/28/22 at 8:18 pm to Mr Happy
ISW update
quote:
The Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating as ISW forecasted on December 27.[1] US military doctrine defines culmination as the "point at which a force no longer has the capability to continue its form of operations, offense or defense,” and “when a force cannot continue the attack and must assume a defensive posture or execute an operational pause.”
quote:
Several indicators support the assessment that Russian forces around Bakhmut have culminated.
Senior Ukrainian officials are visiting frontline positions in Bakhmut unimpeded. Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) chief, Kyrylo Budanov, visited Bakhmut on December 27-28 and was geolocated to within at least 600 meters of the previously recorded Russian forward line of troops.
Recent combat footage supports ISW’s previous assessment that Russian forces are operating in squad-sized assault groups due to combat losses.[6] Combat footage posted on December 26 shows Ukrainian fire defeating squad-sized groups of 5-10 unsupported Russian infantry attempting a disorderedly assault on Novoselivske in Luhansk Oblast.
Russian airborne forces (VDV) are reportedly augmenting Wagner Group operations around Bakhmut. A Russian source reported that Wagner and VDV elements conducted joint operations in Bakhmut on December 27.[9] The report, if true, marks an inflection given that the Wagner Group has been conducting information operations to assert that the Wagner Group forces exclusively are operating in Bakhmut.
quote:
Russian forces appear to be preparing for a decisive effort in Luhansk Oblast, although it is unclear whether for defensive or offensive operations. Russian forces continue accumulating equipment and forces in Luhansk. VDV elements that were likely previously operating in Kherson Oblast appear to have redeployed to Luhansk Oblast following the Russian withdrawal from west bank Kherson Oblast in November.[12] Social media images from late December increasingly show Russian equipment in transit in Luhansk Oblast.[13] Russian forces are operating military district-level thermobaric artillery assets in the Luhansk area of operations, which may indicate a prioritization of operations in this area
quote:
Russian forces appear less likely to conduct a new offensive in the Zaporizhia Oblast over the winter. Russian forces are likely establishing defenses against possible Ukrainian offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast.
quote:
The Kremlin continues to systematically deny Ukrainian sovereignty and reiterate that Russia has no genuine intention to engage in negotiation with Ukraine. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to the Ukrainian proposal to prepare a peace initiative at the United Nations in February and emphasized that no peace plan can exist for Ukraine without accounting for the entry of Zaporizhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts into the Russian Federation.[24] Peskov clearly indicated that the Kremlin has no genuine intent to compromise its demands, thus directly undermining the Kremlin’s own narrative that Russia is willing to talk but Ukraine is not.
quote:
The Kremlin continues to present the US transfer of Patriot air defense systems and accompanying trainers to Ukraine as an escalation in US-Russia relations, despite the fact that the transfer is if anything less escalatory than previous Western military shipments to Ukraine because Patriot is a purely defensive system. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed in a televised interview on December 28 that US officials had guaranteed to not send Patriot air defense trainers to Ukraine in an effort to refrain from participating in the war.[27] The Kremlin has previously highlighted the US transfer of Patriot air-defense systems in accusations that the United States and the West are waging a proxy war in Ukraine with the intent of weakening or destroying the Russian Federation.[28] The Kremlin uses these accusations in support of information operations that aim to frame Ukraine as a Western puppet devoid of sovereignty and to weaken Western security assistance to Ukraine by stoking fears of Russian escalation
quote:
ISW forecasts with high confidence that Putin will not seek to engage NATO militarily at this time in response to the provision of any of the Western military systems currently under discussion. Russia is barely holding off the Ukrainian military at a fearful cost to itself and Russian forces in Ukraine could not survive a serious conflict with NATO at this time. The risks of deliberate Russian escalation to a major conflict with NATO in the foreseeable future are thus extremely low.
quote:
Key Takeaways
The Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating.
Russian forces appear to be preparing for a decisive effort in Luhansk Oblast and appear less likely to conduct a new offensive in Zaporizhia Oblast in the winter of 2023.
The Kremlin continues to demonstrate that Russia has no genuine intention of engaging in negotiations with Ukraine by insisting that Ukraine accept Russia’s illegal annexations of Ukrainian land.
The Kremlin continues to present the US transfer of Patriot air defense systems as an escalation in US-Russia relations, but ISW forecasts with high confidence that Russia will not deliberately seek to escalate to a major conflict with NATO as a result.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations toward Kreminna, where Russian forces continued counterattacks to regain lost positions.
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces continued defensive and rotational operations in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.
The Kremlin has approved additional funds for the development of defensive fortifications and is attempting to staff fortification efforts in Russian border areas and occupied Ukraine.
Posted on 12/28/22 at 8:33 pm to Mr Happy
Did anyone tell you in March the collapse of Russia’s economy ( fed by oil and gas sales with soaring prices) was imminent?
Who?
Did you believe them?
It takes time…
Who?
Did you believe them?
It takes time…
Posted on 12/28/22 at 8:48 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Not what's your looking for exactly but did find the 155mm market Outlook report from 2019. Thought you might find that interesting
That was worthwhile. Thanks. Interesting that about a third of 155mm spending last year was on guided projectiles (like Excalibur).
Posted on 12/28/22 at 9:14 pm to nitwit
quote:
( fed by oil and gas sales with soaring prices)
The soaring prices didn't last long. Traders panicked. russia had to give big discounts to China and India by then so they didn't make as much as some thought
Posted on 12/28/22 at 9:49 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I don't understand why the internet seems to discount the importance of this. To me, the news that Russia is running out of shells is a complete gamechanger. I've seen several "experts" downplaying the news, and I just don't get that at all. I don't understand how Russia can possibly stop Ukraine from taking back its territory if it doesn't have artillery shells.
Why isn't this being treated as big news? I feel like I must be missing something.
If and or when it becomes a provable objective fact it will be huge news. It is the same with cruise missiles and their ilk "we" won't really know until they stop falling from the sky. I am hopeful their ability to send steel downrange dries up soon but I will believe it when I see it, Russia has a ton of issues but they somehow consider this an existential crisis and that posture often results in a country finding amazing solutions to seemingly insurmountable problems.
Posted on 12/28/22 at 10:04 pm to Obtuse1
It still somewhat surprises me to hear Russia is running out of artillery shells. I say that because I’m an old Cold War vet who remembers the thousands upon tanks, howitzers, etc the Soviets had not only in front line service but also scores more in reserve. It boggles my mind to find out they didn’t also maintain ammo supplies to go with them.
Hell, at one point back in the day I remember seeing everything from 155mm to .50 cal ammo in our stocks with manufacture dates from WWII. I always assumed if we have so much ammo we’re still shooting stuff from the 1940s, the Russians had to have that much and more.
Guess not.
Hell, at one point back in the day I remember seeing everything from 155mm to .50 cal ammo in our stocks with manufacture dates from WWII. I always assumed if we have so much ammo we’re still shooting stuff from the 1940s, the Russians had to have that much and more.
Guess not.
Posted on 12/28/22 at 10:06 pm to Darth_Vader
I assume they sold a lot of that stuff to developing countries/warlords over the years 
Posted on 12/28/22 at 10:15 pm to Darth_Vader
From the article linked a few posts back, it appears Russia may have some "2nd tier" ammo in storage, but it may or may not fire & may not go boom when it gets to its destination.
Posted on 12/28/22 at 10:20 pm to Tyga Woods
quote:
I assume they sold a lot of that stuff to developing countries/warlords over the years
People like David Packouz and Efraim Diverol bought a lot of that stuff and they were small fish.
Munitions have to be kept in some semblance of proper conditions after the collapse of the Soviet Union a lot of maintenance fell off significantly and pilferage went into overdrive. Even in the later Putin rule it is out of control, wasn't the number 1 million in regard to the new uniforms that were supposed to be warehoused and there were NONE. This is something that is likely true because it was repeatedly talked about by my friends on Russian state TV. Solovyov wanted someone shot for it.
Posted on 12/28/22 at 10:30 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
but it may or may not fire & may not go boom when it gets to its destination.
Once things went somewhat static the Pentagon let it slip that for every ten 152 shells fired only 8 went boom. They walked that back by saying it could have been a bad lot but 20% failure seems to be consistent.
I'm sure the Russians had some spare tubes, but as many rounds as they have fired tube failure has to has to be a real thing.
Posted on 12/28/22 at 10:32 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
lazerpig made a video about this type of shite
Someone else did a really good one discussing systemic pilferage and fraud within their military. They worked up from the squad level to the top. Maybe it was Task and Purpose. I posted it here but it has been months ago.
Ole "Vlad Solo" is trying to write checks that Russia can't cash:
Posted on 12/29/22 at 3:02 am to Obtuse1
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 29 December 2022
In the early hours of 26 December 2022, Russia's Engels Air Base was attacked for the second time in three weeks. Russian media reported that uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) were responsible for the strike on the facility, one of the main operating bases of Russia's strategic bomber fleet.
Russia has long given a very high priority to maintaining advanced ground based air defences, but it is increasingly clear that it is struggling to counter air threats deep inside Russia.
One challenge for Russia is probably the exceptional demand on its fleet of modern, medium-range air defence systems, such as SA-22 Pantsir, which would typically be expected to take a major role in countering UAVs. As well as providing point defence for strategic sites such as Engels, these systems are currently required in large number to protect field headquarters near the front line in Ukraine.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 29 December 2022
In the early hours of 26 December 2022, Russia's Engels Air Base was attacked for the second time in three weeks. Russian media reported that uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) were responsible for the strike on the facility, one of the main operating bases of Russia's strategic bomber fleet.
Russia has long given a very high priority to maintaining advanced ground based air defences, but it is increasingly clear that it is struggling to counter air threats deep inside Russia.
One challenge for Russia is probably the exceptional demand on its fleet of modern, medium-range air defence systems, such as SA-22 Pantsir, which would typically be expected to take a major role in countering UAVs. As well as providing point defence for strategic sites such as Engels, these systems are currently required in large number to protect field headquarters near the front line in Ukraine.
Posted on 12/29/22 at 3:47 am to cypher
The speculation by my guys is that the number of dead former Generals/procurement people is Vlad setting the table for the end of the war-he’s going to pretend that although he’s all powerful and all knowing the former guys were robbing the Country blind and offshoring the money, then he’s going to privatize the military through the Wagner Group which is of course one of the biggest shell companies for Vlad. It is a leap of faith though because it relies on Pirogie the Pirate not cutting his head off. Good times ahead. Engels was bombed again today (3rd time)and thats a hint of what’s to come.
This post was edited on 12/29/22 at 3:50 am
Posted on 12/29/22 at 4:05 am to LSUCanFAN
At this point it is pretty clear Russia is getting their arse handed to them at Engels, which is wild.
Posted on 12/29/22 at 7:53 am to TigersSEC2010
Really interesting story this morning in the Washington Post: it's an in-depth history of the Kharkiv/Kherson Ukrainian offensives this fall that have reshaped the war. The link above is gifted to get you past the paywall.
There are so many interesting bits in the story, and you should really read the whole thing. Here's how it starts:
The Kharkiv offensive that captured Izyium was originally viewed as a diversion:
On the equipment used in the Kharkiv offensive:
On summer plans for a broad Ukrainian Southern offensive back in the summer, and why it didn't happen:
On a topic that we discussed in this thread in great detail at the time -- the possibility of Ukraine blowing the Nova Khakhova dam:
Ukraine replaced the commander of the Kherson operation because it was moving too slow:
There are so many interesting bits in the story, and you should really read the whole thing. Here's how it starts:
quote:
KHARKIV, Ukraine — After weeks of fighting for scraps of territory on the war’s bloodiest front, Oleh, a 21-year-old Ukrainian company commander, was summoned suddenly last August, along with thousands of other soldiers, to an obscure rendezvous point in the Kharkiv region.
At his last position, relentless Russian artillery fire had stalked his men’s every step. But here, in a patch of villages, farmland and streams in Ukraine’s northeast, the quiet was deeply alarming. “The silence bothered me the most,” Oleh said. “It seemed off. How could this be?”
Even more unsettling were the orders his superiors handed down: to charge as far as 40 miles into enemy territory at high speed in an audacious, top-secret counteroffensive — directly between the Russian-occupied stronghold of Izyum and Russia’s own Belgorod region dotted with military bases. It seemed preposterous. “Some kind of dubious operation,” Oleh said.
The Kharkiv offensive that captured Izyium was originally viewed as a diversion:
quote:
When orders went out from the Ukrainian General Staff last summer for commanders to come up with possible diversionary operations to draw Russian forces away from the defense of Kherson, Syrsky knew what he would propose.
“The enemy … thought that, because so many forces had been built up in Izyum and more were stationed over the Russian border in the Belgorod region, ‘you’d have to be crazy to move and try to strike right in the middle and split the two,’” Syrsky said. “But the thought was there.”
On the equipment used in the Kharkiv offensive:
quote:
In a risky decision, Ukraine moved some of the most valuable Western weapons systems away from hotter spots on the eastern front. Each attacking brigade was armed with at least eight M777 howitzers, commanders said. In some cases, the M777s arrived at encampments the night before the assault began. Extra drones were also brought in to ensure that brigades could pinpoint targets and use less ammunition.
Maj. Gen. Andriy Malinovsky, head of missile forces and artillery training for the Ukrainian army, was still worried the force could need more than 100,000 munitions. The Ukrainians had only tens of thousands — not enough for a protracted slog. (Ultimately, Malinovsky said, they used about 32,500 over five days).
U.S. intelligence helped ration the ammunition through accurate targeting. After many months, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials, the two partners had worked out a real-time regimen: The Ukrainians would outline the types of high-value targets they were looking for in an area, and the United States would use its vast geospatial intelligence apparatus to respond with precise locations.
quote:
By mid-August, Syrsky was confident the plan would work — but he needed to sell it to Zelensky. He described the mission as a chance to liberate a large swath of territory with minimal resources and losses.
Zelensky, craving a big battlefield win, approved the attack.
On summer plans for a broad Ukrainian Southern offensive back in the summer, and why it didn't happen:
quote:
To decide how to go about the operation, Ukrainian commanders arrived in Germany last July for a war-gaming session with their American and British counterparts.
At the time, the Ukrainians were considering a far broader counteroffensive across the entire southern front, including a drive to the coast in the Zaporizhzhia region that would sever Moscow’s coveted “land bridge” connecting mainland Russia with Crimea, which was illegally annexed in 2014.
In a room full of maps and spreadsheets, the Ukrainians ran their own “tabletop exercise,” describing the order of battle — what formations they would use, where the units would go and in what sequence — and the likely Russian response.
The American and British war-gamers ran their own simulations using the same inputs but different software and analysis. They couldn’t get the operation to work.
Given the numbers of Ukrainian troops and available stockpiles of ammunition, the planners concluded that the Ukrainians would exhaust their combat power before achieving the offensive’s objectives.
“This was them asking for our advice,” said a senior U.S. defense official, who like others in this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military planning. “And our advice was, ‘Hey, guys, you’re going to bite off more than you can chew. This isn’t going to work out well.’”
quote:
The White House reiterated the U.S. military’s analysis in talks with Zelensky’s office.
National security adviser Jake Sullivan talked to the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, about the plans for a broad southern counteroffensive, according to people familiar with the discussions.
On a topic that we discussed in this thread in great detail at the time -- the possibility of Ukraine blowing the Nova Khakhova dam:
quote:
Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages.
The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off.
Ukraine replaced the commander of the Kherson operation because it was moving too slow:
quote:
But for Kyiv, Kovalchuk wasn’t moving fast enough. He was replaced by Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavsky, a deputy of Syrsky’s during the Kharkiv operation.
quote:
But the change wasn’t publicly announced, the official said, so as not to provide Russia with any kind of propaganda victory. The Americans were informed.
“I think there were folks who were probably getting impatient with the movement in the south,” said a senior U.S. military official. “It was a really good start and then it just kind of stopped.”
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