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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/17/23 at 9:20 am to GeauxxxTigers23
Posted on 3/17/23 at 9:20 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
I mean, our best Special Forces soldiers trained the South Vietnamese, Iraqi and Afghan armies and all three of those got their asses kicked. We might not be so great at training foreign soldiers. In fact, evidence suggests that we’re fricking terrible at it.
Motivation is the key ingredient. After that the real training becomes important.
I’m under the impression that Ukrainians are highly motivated. I don’t think Iraqis and Afghans were, S Vietnamese were a mixed bag if memory serves.
This post was edited on 3/17/23 at 9:24 am
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Posted on 3/17/23 at 9:21 am to LSUPilot07
I agree. I believe he is telling the truth. I have heard reports of many totally green recruits being put into the Bakhmut fight. Some with as little as five days training.
Zelensky talked about the Bakhmut strategy and the why in an announcement he made a few days ago, but alot of people are beginning to have questions and/or doubts.
Zelensky talked about the Bakhmut strategy and the why in an announcement he made a few days ago, but alot of people are beginning to have questions and/or doubts.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 9:48 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
Time has run out. If the west doesn’t fully commit now and act on it then all we are doing is spilling more Ukrainian blood than would be necessary because the ending would be all but assured. This can be stopped but the west must commit and not just say they are committed.
This 1000%. Again, I do not see the west committed to Ukrainian victory. I said that awhile ago. They haven't provided or refused to deliver the necessary items for Ukraine to win this. Biden has never once said he was committed to Ukrainian victory. "As long as it takes" does not include the words Ukrainian victory. I have ranted many times on here about many of the European countries and their pathetic leadership and lack of will.
Putin is committed. He will not quit. His power, legacy and maybe his life depend on it. If he were to lose Crimea, he is beyond done. He has the bodies to sustain. The sanctions aren't destroying the economy because the west has refused to close the loopholes. Putin will not stop unless he was forced to by total Ukrainian victory on the battlefield. And the west has drug their feet and has not provided the necessary items for that to happen.
This post was edited on 3/17/23 at 9:53 am
Posted on 3/17/23 at 10:20 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
I question their ability to attack in the spring to be honest.
Yeah, I want to talk about this a little more. You really think that all the Bradleys, Marders, CV-90s, Leopards, Archers, Caesars, etc., etc. etc. that NATO has provided for this offensive aren't going to work?
You think that the +50 nations that contributed to this offensive just gave this equipment to Ukraine so that they would feel good about themselves? You think that the wargaming that the US has done with Ukraine showed mostly failures as the likely outcomes? You don't think that NATO's reputation is on the line with this offensive?
Personally, I will be shocked if Ukraine's spring offensive fails to yield a significant victory (which I would define as reaching the Sea of Azov by midsummer.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 10:24 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Personally, I will be shocked if Ukraine's spring offensive fails to yield a significant victory (which I would define as reaching the Sea of Azov by midsummer.
My fear is that if it looks like this was happening, Putin would resort to battlefield tactical nukes to stop the Ukrainian spearhead.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 10:26 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Yeah, I want to talk about this a little more. You really think that all the Bradleys, Marders, CV-90s, Leopards, Archers, Caesars, etc., etc. etc. that NATO has provided for this offensive aren't going to work?
I question whether or not te hey have the fuel, men and ammunition to conduct a large scale offensive. For all we know some of that equipment has already been destroyed in defensive battles. Maybe it hasn’t and they’ve been holding it in reserve for the attack but we don’t know that because no one reports on Ukrainian losses or casualties. Which are probably appallingly high.
The Russians have adapted to HIMARs and other long range systems by pulling their logistics back. That, coupled with Ukraine’s lack of missiles will make the offensive more difficult.
quote:
You think that the +50 nations that contributed to this offensive just gave this equipment to Ukraine so that they would feel good about themselves? You think that the wargaming that the US has done with Ukraine showed mostly failures as the likely outcomes? You don't think that NATO's reputation is on the line with this offensive?
I’m confused. Do we think NATO has given enough or not? Because the past 5 pages have been about the West not giving enough.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 10:37 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
I’m confused. Do we think NATO has given enough or not? Because the past 5 pages have been about the West not giving enough.
I might be FOS, but how can you believe these reports?
Why would anyone Telegraph their plans, strategy, and their logistics to Russia?
How much of what we read is propaganda? Misinformation? Politics?
We have been surprised for over a year now and I’m thinking we will continue being surprised.
This war could go either way or it could become a stalemate much like Korea.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 10:39 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
For all we know some of that equipment has already been destroyed in defensive battles.
None of it has been seen on a battlefield. If any of all the new NATO stuff had been destroyed, the Russians would be bragging to the skies. Heck, Shoigu today just gave medals to the idiot pilots who crashed their jet into the Reaper drone.
quote:
I’m confused. Do we think NATO has given enough or not? Because the past 5 pages have been about the West not giving enough.
Enough for the spring offensive? Sure. Ukraine knows that this offensive is really its only opportunity to force Putin to sue for peace.
NATO is not giving Ukraine enough to rout Russian forces everywhere. We aren't giving ATACMS. Too many political leaders in NATO still want Russia to lose, but not too badly, because they fear the consequences of a Russian breakup. They don't want someone like Prigozhin taking power in the wake of a coup.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 10:41 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
My fear is that if it looks like this was happening, Putin would resort to battlefield tactical nukes to stop the Ukrainian spearhead.
Dropping a nuke onto Russian land? Don't forget that they claim to have annexed all of that territory. I think that's one of about a hundred reasons that Putin will not do that.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 10:53 am to GOP_Tiger
Yeah, I guess he could also say, "Yeah, its our land, we can drop a nuke on it if we want."
Posted on 3/17/23 at 10:55 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Dropping a nuke onto Russian land? Don't forget that they claim to have annexed all of that territory. I think that's one of about a hundred reasons that Putin will not do that.
The problem with this is you’re thinking logically. If this war turns against Putin and it start looking like he’s in jeopardy of actually losing the war, then all the cards are on the table at that point. I have a feeling he will be thinking more like a cornered animal at that point that a logical national leader.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 11:30 am to Darth_Vader
International Criminal Court just issued arrest warrant for Putin per NYT. I wonder if this will affect his ability to travel overseas.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 11:40 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
The problem with this is you’re thinking logically. If this war turns against Putin and it start looking like he’s in jeopardy of actually losing the war, then all the cards are on the table at that point.
The choice then becomes do whatever Putin demands due to your personal fear of what you imagine that his reaction might be if you tell him “no,” or do exactly what you have stated you are going to do and deal with the actual reaction if and when it occurs
Posted on 3/17/23 at 12:08 pm to cypher
quote:
International Criminal Court just issued arrest warrant for Putin per NYT. I wonder if this will affect his ability to travel overseas
quote:
Russia's foreign ministry responded to the arrest warrants with a statement saying, "The decisions of the International Criminal Court have no meaning for our country, including from a legal point of view. Russia is not a party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and bears no obligations under it."
quote:
An indictment of Putin would make the president of Russia an international fugitive, CBS News' David Martin reported.
"It's not easy for a head of state to fear being arrested when he or she puts foot in a European country or in a North American country," said Justice Richard Goldstone, the chief prosecutor of war crimes committed in Bosnia in the 1990s.
Ambassador Beth Van Schaack, the State Department official in charge of assembling evidence that could help prove Russia is committing war crimes in Ukraine, told Martin: "He is inevitably now trapped in Russia. He will never be able to travel internationally, because it would be too great a risk that he would be captured and brought before a court of law."
The same holds true for any other Russian charged with war crimes.
"They will enjoy some impunity while they stay within Russia," Van Schaack said, "but what we have seen is perpetrators don't stay within their home states. They want to go shopping in Europe or go on vacation somewhere, and they get identified, and then the law enforcement is activated. And we are never more integrated than we are now."
LINK
Posted on 3/17/23 at 12:11 pm to StormyMcMan
The United States doesn’t even recognize the ICC.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 12:14 pm to TBoy
quote:
The choice then becomes do whatever Putin demands
Or even better, not be involved.
I like that choice better. Less nation building bullshite.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 12:19 pm to StormyMcMan
I doubt Putin has plans on visiting the US anytime soon, or really anywhere that Russia doesn't exert significant influence, but we aren't a signatory of the Rome Statute either and don't officially recognize ICC jurisdiction. China doesn't either.
With what they said about the warrants being issued publicly, which they usually aren't, I think this is just public posturing to try and maybe slow down the deportation of kids out of Ukraine by Russia.
With what they said about the warrants being issued publicly, which they usually aren't, I think this is just public posturing to try and maybe slow down the deportation of kids out of Ukraine by Russia.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 12:20 pm to RogerTheShrubber
Roger in your expert opinion do you think this is a proxy war?
Posted on 3/17/23 at 12:25 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:then theres nothing we can do but perpetually give him what we wants
If this war turns against Putin and it start looking like he’s in jeopardy of actually losing the war, then all the cards are on the table at that point. I have a feeling he will be thinking more like a cornered animal at that point that a logical national leader.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 12:26 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
then theres nothing we can do but perpetually give him what we wants
What exactly would we be “giving” him?
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