re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 17 March 2023

In recent days, Russian and Wagner Group forces have obtained footholds west of the Bakhmutka River in the centre of the contested Donbas town of Bakhmut. Over the preceding week, the river had marked the front line. Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to defend the west of the town.

However, more broadly across the front line, Russia is conducting some of the lowest rates of local offensive action that has been seen since at least January 2023. This is most likely because Russian
forces have temporarily depleted the deployed formations' combat power to such an extent that even local offensive actions are not currently sustainable.

Russian leaders will likely seek to regenerate the offensive potential of the force once personnel and munition stocks are replenished. In the meantime, commanders will likely be forced to choose between carrying out offensive operations and conducting a credible defence of the full line.

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In recent days, Russian and Wagner Group forces have obtained footholds west of the Bakhmutka River in the centre of the contested Donbas town of Bakhmut

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Again, Ukraine needs to counterattack, or the defense of Bakhmut will not last much longer. The river is a natural line of defense, and if Ukraine can't hold it, then they don't have any chance of holding the rest of the western part of town.

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In the meantime, commanders will likely be forced to choose between carrying out offensive operations and conducting a credible defence of the full line.

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I don't think that there's any question that Russia continuing to attack is endangering their ability to defend against the upcoming Ukrainian spring offensive.

The real question is which side is endangering themselves more right now.

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Kopul speaks the truth and I’m sure Ukrainian high command knows it too

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I thought Michael Kofman had a really interesting observation in his latest podcast.

It's well-known, of course, that Ukraine's military was total crap in 2014, which is why Russia was able to take Crimea and the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas.

After that, they instituted broad reforms and remade themselves into a NATO-like military, complete with lots of NATO training. And that's part of why Ukraine had so much success early in the war.

But the problem is that the war meant that lots of reserve and retired guys were brought back into the officer ranks -- guys whose methods, attitudes, and training reflected the old Soviet way of doing things.

So now, Kofman says, there's almost a Jekyll and Hyde nature to the Ukrainian military, with very good quality in some areas and poor Soviet-style leadership in others.

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They don’t have any artillery shells or fresh bodies to attack.


I question their ability to attack in the spring to be honest.

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How do you know that the reason that there aren't enough shells at the front right now isn't due to saving them for the offensive?

And Ukraine still has plenty of bodies. I don't understand that comment at all. Part of the reason for the poor quality of the new troops on the front lines right now is that Ukraine has literally had tens of thousands of soldiers training for this offensive, mostly in Europe.

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How do you know that the reason that there aren't enough shells at the front right now isn't due to saving them for the offensive?

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How do you know they are?

We’ve already talked about the West’s inability to produce enough shells per month to supply Ukraine’s monthly rate of fire.

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And Ukraine still has plenty of bodies. I don't understand that comment at all. Part of the reason for the poor quality of the new troops on the front lines right now is that Ukraine has literally had tens of thousands of soldiers training for this offensive, mostly in Europe.

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Maybe, but there are reports from not even a week ago about Ukraine throwing elite units into the defense of Bakhmut.

If I had to guess, what the Ukrainian Col. spoke out about is the norm rather than the exception. The real reason he was disciplined is because Ukraine can’t have that info getting out. It hurts their own morale and even worse, weakens the resolve of western nations to continue to contribute guns and bullets to the fight. It’s the reason Ukraine won’t report their own casualties or battlefield losses, which probably aren’t that much better than Russia’s.

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How do you know they are?

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In their remarks after Wednesday's online Ramstein meeting, Austin and Milley both expressed lots of confidence in Ukraine's capacity for upcoming offensive operations. Ammo was a big focus of this Ramstein for precisely this reason.

And to be honest, I think that some of the Bakhmut struggles with ammo supply are due more to logistics issues than dwindling stocks. So much of the Ukrainian logistics team is working overtime trying to get all the new NATO equipment into the country and staged for the offensive. I have read a couple of things recently suggesting that Ukrainian logistics units are simply overwhelmed.

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How do you know that the reason that there aren't enough shells at the front right now isn't due to saving them for the offensive? And Ukraine still has plenty of bodies. I don't understand that comment at all. Part of the reason for the poor quality of the new troops on the front lines right now is that Ukraine has literally had tens of thousands of soldiers training for this offensive, mostly in Euro

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If you believe everything that Colonel said then you might think the new recruits aren’t being properly trained.

Was the Colonel right, was he a red herring? We will soon see.

If you believe the colonel, it raises the prospect that the top soldiers, those with experience are being rested for the offensive and Ukraine is using it least trained to defend Bakhmut.
Actually, it makes sense, especially if the Ruskies are still throwing convicts and conscripts at that meatgrinder.

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So now, Kofman says, there's almost a Jekyll and Hyde nature to the Ukrainian military, with very good quality in some areas and poor Soviet-style leadership in others.

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That was a pretty fascinating point about the "two armies" in the UAF that I hadn't thought about before. But it makes complete sense like you said with old reservists that came up under the old Soviet way and all these new units that formed after Crimea and after current invasion started are definitely more western.

I think it's something they need to get a handle on really quick. Because they just don't have the manpower to fight a bigger force using the same weapons and tactics as the bigger force. Their only shot is to get everyone in line from the top down with the western way and hope like hell the west keeps sending them better weapons. They just cannot, and will not, have a victory by digging in and taking turns shelling each other. That plays right into Russian strengths to just "bleed them white" to use the famous words of the Falkehayn.

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I mean, our best Special Forces soldiers trained the South Vietnamese, Iraqi and Afghan armies and all three of those got their asses kicked. We might not be so great at training foreign soldiers. In fact, evidence suggests that we’re fricking terrible at it.

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Trained to call in US air power.