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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 3/16/23 at 8:39 am to
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8596 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 8:39 am to
It absolutely shows the collision. Not only do you see the drone camera shudder from the impact but you see one of the propeller blades get cut in half.
Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 8:42 am to
I clearly said that one of the props looked bent
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 9:02 am to
Israel approves export licenses for anti-drone systems for Ukraine

LINK

quote:

Israel recently approved the export licenses for the possible sale of anti-drone jamming systems that could help Ukraine counter Iranian drones used by Russia during the war, three Israeli and Ukrainian officials said.

Why it matters: It's the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine more than a year ago that Israel has approved defense export licenses for possible weapons sales to Ukraine.

Israel has been careful not to give military assistance to Ukraine, fearing such a move could create tension with Russia and harm Israeli security interests in Syria.
quote:

A Ukrainian official told Axios that a delegation from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense visited Israel recently to get a presentation on the anti-drone systems. No deal has been signed yet.

The systems Israel proposed that Ukraine buy use electronic warfare to jam and down drones. The systems have a range of around 25 miles and can be positioned near power plants or other critical sites to protect them from drones.
quote:

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry is interested in the systems, but they are viewed as less critical because Ukraine has been able to intercept the drones between 75–90% of the time, the Ukrainian officials said.

"What we really need is a defensive system against ballistic missiles," a Ukrainian official told Axios.
Posted by IAmNERD
Member since May 2017
24238 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 9:32 am to
quote:

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry is interested in the systems, but they are viewed as less critical because Ukraine has been able to intercept the drones between 75–90% of the time, the Ukrainian officials said.

No way that figure is accurate.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 9:53 am to
WSJ:


quote:

WASHINGTON—Ukraine’s insatiable demand for artillery has for months outpaced Western forecasts, setting off a global hunt for more ammunition and forcing the U.S. to raid its stocks abroad to help Kyiv prepare for its counteroffensive later in the spring.

With some U.S. allies unwilling or unable to supply enough ammunition for Ukraine, the U.S. military is pulling from its munition supplies in a number of locations, including in Israel, South Korea, Germany and Kuwait. These sites, known as prepositioned stocks, are where the U.S. stores everything from trucks to bandages to support American forces around the world.

The first drawdown of munitions from these sites was late last year, U.S. and congressional officials said.

The pressure on the U.S. to take more ammunition from its overseas stocks comes as some of Washington’s allies with the biggest stores of artillery rounds have shied away from supplying Ukraine for fear of being seen by Russia as a party to the fight in Ukraine.
quote:

The U.S. has sent Ukraine more than one million rounds of 155mm ammunition, and allies have contributed more on top of that.
quote:

Ukrainian troops are using more than 90,000 rounds a month of 155mm ammunition, Defense Department officials say.

The U.S. is now scrambling to ensure Ukraine has enough in stock for the next phase of the war, since artillery rounds will help Kyiv’s forces take back territory from Russia in what many see as a make-or-break moment in the conflict.
quote:

Apart from its own production and stockpiles, the U.S. is seeking more artillery rounds for Ukraine from countries that possess large stockpiles, or are capable of producing large volumes of the ammunition.

But in some cases, the responses have been lukewarm. The U.S. has attempted to persuade South Korea, which sits atop a large supply of artillery, to supply Ukraine.

But South Korea, which has tried to remain neutral in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, has been reluctant, providing only about 200,000 rounds, or about two months worth of ammunition based on Ukraine’s consumption rate, according to U.S. and other officials.

The negotiations with Seoul had been ongoing for months, officials said. During initial talks, South Korea said it didn’t want its ammunition to show up on the battlefield in Europe but would consider selling its artillery to the U.S. if Washington could guarantee it would only go to replenish American stocks.
quote:

To avoid the appearance that Seoul was supplying Ukraine, the U.S. arranged last summer for South Korea to sell 155mm ammunition to the Czech Republic’s defense ministry, according to a European parliamentarian who has knowledge of the discussions.

The South Korean Embassy in Washington, D.C., didn’t comment on any of the ammunition negotiations. The government in Seoul has previously denied that it has provided any ammunition to Ukraine.

“There is no change in the ROK government position that it does not support lethal weapons to Ukraine,” said Lee Chang Woo, the first secretary of the embassy. “The ROK government is actively seeking humanitarian assistance for Ukraine, including its reconstruction.”

The Czech defense ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.

When that deal collapsed, the U.S. agreed to purchase a batch of 200,000 rounds from South Korean defense manufacturer Poongsan, also on the condition that they would be used to replenish U.S. domestic stocks and not be shipped to Ukraine, according to the parliamentarian.
Poongsan didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
quote:

During a trip to the Middle East last week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin asked Egypt to provide more of its 155mm rounds and Soviet-era equipment but didn’t secure a commitment, U.S. officials said.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 10:50 am to
My conclusions from that WSJ article:

- The artillery shell issue is big a part of the US frustration about Bakhmut. As we have discussed, if Russia takes Bakhmut, it will likely take an operational pause to restock and rotate. Ukraine believes that keeping the pressure on leaves Russia more vulnerable, but it also means that Ukrainian ammo consumption has been higher than Washington wants, and no one in DC likes the fact that Sec. Austin has to have his hand out begging Egypt for shells.

- A Ukrainian analyst recently said that ammo usage was still split 50-50 between 152mm Soviet ammo and 155mm NATO ammo. This article only focuses on the 155mm. Besides the 152mm that's produced in by our allies in Central Europe, I've gotten the impression that the UK has taken on the role of finding 152mm. Certainly the 152mm coming from Pakistan has been purchased and delivered by the UK.

- The ammo supply question goes beyond the next stage of the conflict. What happens if the Ukrainian spring offensive is successful? Then what? It appears that Ukraine will be unable to fully exploit the situation, because they won't have ammo to press on.

- Ultimately, the best solution for the ammo situation is for the US and its allies to provide Ukraine with additional platforms and other means of striking the enemy. ATACMS helps. JDAM-ER helps. Bradleys help.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 11:19 am to
More on artillery:

France accused of delaying EU’s €2bn plan to replenish Ukraine’s artillery shell stocks

The Telegraph:

quote:

France was on Wednesday accused of slowing down the European Union’s plans to replenish Ukraine’s dwindling artillery shell stocks by demanding the munitions be manufactured inside the bloc.

European sources told the Telegraph that Paris wanted guarantees that a €2 billion deal to jointly procure weapons would only benefit firms based in the EU.
quote:

So far, EU countries have only provided Ukraine with 350,000 155mm artillery shells, which Kyiv says it desperately needs more of to maintain its defensive lines and launch its anticipated spring counter-offensive.

Brussels has so far reimbursed its member states €450 million for the donations, at an estimated cost of €1,285 per shell.
quote:

Greece and Cyprus, a source said, backed France’s bid to keep non-EU businesses out of the procurement scheme to prevent Turkish firms from bidding for contracts.
quote:

Any final deal will need to be signed off later this month when European leaders hold a summit in Brussels.


Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5645 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 11:55 am to
quote:

Ultimately, the best solution for the ammo situation is for the US and its allies to provide Ukraine with additional platforms and other means of striking the enemy. ATACMS helps. JDAM-ER helps. Bradleys help.


also DPICM rounds from US stockpile
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8164 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 12:47 pm to
“The entire Ukrainian Eastern front is collapsing”

Stidham8 back around April 22.

Your powers of prognosis suck.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8164 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 12:52 pm to
quote:

They have been capturing Bakhmut for the last 6 weeks. At this point, I'm beginning to wonder if they are doing it by the spoonful.


Russia has been trying to capture Bakhmut for over six to eight months. They have only made progress in the last two.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8164 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 12:54 pm to
No one is arguing this isn’t a proxy war on the US side. We have fought proxy wars with Russia since the end of WW2.

quote:

Its our proxy war. You can pretend otherwise all you choose and you're still wrong
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

France was on Wednesday accused of slowing down the European Union’s plans to replenish Ukraine’s dwindling artillery shell stocks by demanding the munitions be manufactured inside the bloc.

European sources told the Telegraph that Paris wanted guarantees that a €2 billion deal to jointly procure weapons would only benefit firms based in the EU.
quote:
So far, EU countries have only provided Ukraine with 350,000 155mm artillery shells, which Kyiv says it desperately needs more of to maintain its defensive lines and launch its anticipated spring counter-offensive.

Brussels has so far reimbursed its member states €450 million for the donations, at an estimated cost of €1,285 per shell.
quote:
Greece and Cyprus, a source said, backed France’s bid to keep non-EU businesses out of the procurement scheme to prevent Turkish firms from bidding for contracts.


Macron and France are jokes. Greece and Cyprus. LOL. With allies such as these who needs enemies? When the American taxpayer continually sees the actions of the Euro welchers who can blame them for being pissed that the US is having to carry the burden again? When this thing is over they will welch on the rebuilding costs also.
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 2:58 pm to

]






The first still is taken after the first pass while the other 4 are from after the video comes back following the second pass.

Compared to how the blades of the propeller were in the first image, even with changed lighting and camera angle, there is clear damage to blades 2 and 4, and I would argue that blade 3 looks deformed, while only blade 1 seems fine. We can't see the top to ascertain any further damage to the tail, fuselage, or wings.

Now whether this is due to dumped fuel impacting the drone, the concussion from the engines as the SU-27 passes, or the aircraft itself hitting the drone is not clear, especially without audio or more footage of the immediate aftermath.

Regardless of which of these caused the damage I think it is reasonable to make the premise that the drone crash was very likely caused by the Russian jets actions and not anything on the part of the drone itself, at no time in the video is the horizon shifting like the drone is making evasive manoeuvres. It does appear to change directional heading between the first and second pass as noted by the N moving between the 2 segments but without the timing between them it is hard to calculate how quickly this was done and even then is not indicative of significant movement to avoid the Russian jets.

As tigeraddict said, how could the Russians not assume there would be footage when interfering with a reconnaissance drone? Considering they released a story which points to being false given the video, then they either wanted it to be seen as an escalatory message (even if it is only a drone) due the publicity it would garner, or they really are reaching a collective stress point and are starting to make very poor decisions.


Edit: Noted change of direction between passes
This post was edited on 3/16/23 at 5:17 pm
Posted by BananaManCan
Member since Sep 2009
4353 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 3:05 pm to
Need to rename this thread to Cuck Lovers Conflict.
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 3:14 pm to
quote:

Need to rename this thread to Cuck Lovers Conflict.


Very true, though I think "Icon kissing cuck lovers" more accurately describes those making decisions in Russia at the moment.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

Need to rename this thread to Cuck Lovers Conflict.


And yet this was your post right before this

quote:

quote:
LordSnow




I LOVE YOU/TIME TO FAP


But sure the posters in this thread are total cucks
Posted by BananaManCan
Member since Sep 2009
4353 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 4:32 pm to
Because you are cucks
Posted by BayouBlitz
Member since Aug 2007
18126 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 4:38 pm to
quote:

Need to rename this thread to Cuck Lovers Conflict


quote:

BananaManCan


Checks out.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8596 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 4:42 pm to
How about you suck my cuck then. Why do you post here if you don’t like it? You’re a little troll bitch that’s why. You must lead a really pathetic life to get joy from being a troll. Maybe try getting laid.
This post was edited on 3/16/23 at 5:06 pm
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
14807 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 4:43 pm to
FSB complex in Rostov on fire

BBC nees

“Electrical Short”
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