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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 3/15/23 at 9:24 pm to
Posted by BRIllini07
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2015
3206 posts
Posted on 3/15/23 at 9:24 pm to
quote:

Its our proxy war. You can pretend otherwise all you choose and you're still wrong.




It's a proxy war, except this time Russia isn't using a proxy.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 3/15/23 at 9:40 pm to
ISW tonight:

quote:

he overall Wagner Group offensive on Bakhmut additionally appears to be nearing culmination. Ukrainian military sources have noted a markedly decreased number of attacks in and around Bakhmut, particularly over the last few days.[7] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has recently emphasized the toll that a reported lack of ammunition is having on Wagner’s ability to pursue offensives on Bakhmut and stated on March 15 that due to ammunition shortages and heavy fighting, Wagner has had to expand its encirclement of Bakhmut.[8] Prigozhin notably claimed that Wagner captured Zalizianske, a tiny rural settlement 9km northwest of Bakhmut on the east side of the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway, which indicates that Wagner forces are likely conducting opportunistic localized attacks on settlements further north of Bakhmut that are small and relatively easier to seize.[9] Recent Wagner gains north of Bakhmut suggest that manpower, artillery, and equipment losses in fights for Bakhmut will likely constrain Wagner’s ability to complete a close encirclement of Bakhmut or gain substantial territory in battles for urban areas. The capture of Zalizianske and other similarly small towns north of Bakhmut and east of the E40 highway is extremely unlikely to enhance Wagner’s ability to capture Bakhmut itself or make other operationally significant gains. It therefore is likely that Wagner’s offensive on Bakhmut is increasingly nearing culmination. Russian forces would likely have to commit significant reserves to prevent this culmination. They may be able to do so, as ISW has observed elements of Russian airborne regiments in and around Bakhmut that do not seem to be heavily committed to the fighting at the moment. The Russians might also commit elements of other conventional units, including possibly the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, or units drawn from elsewhere in the theater. But it seems that the Wagner offensive itself will not be sufficient to seize Bakhmut.



That's big, in my opinion. It has lots of potential for more internal trouble and conflict inside Wagner and the Russian MoD.
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
150128 posts
Posted on 3/15/23 at 9:46 pm to
quote:

Only in the world of mouth breathing q tards can something like thi
quote:

RogerTheShrubber

quote:

Or realists.

Its our proxy war. You can pretend otherwise all you choose and you're still wrong.

Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8596 posts
Posted on 3/15/23 at 10:12 pm to
Russia is always going to be Russia, they will always be incompetent. It’s Ukrainian command in Bakhmut I’m starting to worry about a little now. I saw the good in holding out until the very last moment before pulling back and I really thought they would have been forced to pull out 3 weeks ago but they held the line longer than anyone would have ever thought they could. However it doesn’t take a brilliant military mind to read a map and see that now is really that time unfortunately. The last main roadway is way too close to being overrun I just can’t see how they can take that risk right now when they need all their forces. Those troops should be celebrated in the way that the Azovstal garrison has been but this time they need to save them from risk of encirclement. They owe them that much. I wouldn’t be worried about Russia taking much ground before the counter offensive begins even if they do give the city up. Wagner has been made combat ineffective as a fighting force on its own so the Russian army would have to step up and they have proven they are not capable of doing so.
This post was edited on 3/15/23 at 11:11 pm
Posted by jfan244888
Soda City, SC
Member since Jul 2021
1134 posts
Posted on 3/15/23 at 10:13 pm to
ISW also claimed Russia is down to 29 attacks per day now vs 100 at the start.

Their winter offensive has failed to gain anything significant since December. These new mobiks they're adding are only going to be cannon fodder once Ukraine finally goes back on offense
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 3/15/23 at 10:45 pm to
Entertaining video from @wartranslated:

quote:

Officers of the 93rd Brigade filmed the takedown of a Wagner Su aircraft in Bakhmut using Igla MANPADS today.

The press service of the brigade was lucky enough to see with their own eyes how the bomber was shot down and to film the launch of a rocket at one of the positions.


It's funny... at the beginning of the video, the Ukrainian soldiers tell the press service guys that the cloudy weather means that no Russian planes will attack today, and then they are happily proven wrong and get to shoot one down.
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 3/15/23 at 10:54 pm to
Russia is about to have a very bad day it seems. Nothing concrete yet but;


ABC News - Erdogan hints at ratifying Finland application to NATO

The above article appears to be based on the below twitter video that claims President Erdogan says "verdigimiz sözün geregini yerine getirecegiz." (Translation: We will fulfill our promise.) in response to a question about Finland's NATO membership, which isn't exactly clear as no mention of what that promise may be is made.

Twitter - @ersoydede

Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 3/15/23 at 10:57 pm
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 5:24 am to
This is reportedly the footage released by US_EUCOM of the much discussed MQ-9 drone that was hit by the Russian SU-27

Twitter @LmartinezABC
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5645 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 5:32 am to
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 16 March 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

Over the last week, Russian attempts to assault the Donetsk Oblast town of Vuhledar have almost certainly slowed. This follows repeated, extremely costly failed attacks over the previous three months.

One factor in Russia's heavy losses in this sector has been Ukraine's successful adoption of Remote Anti-Armour Mine systems (RAAM). RAAM is a specialist artillery shell which scatters anti-armour mines up to 17km away from the firing unit. In some instances, Ukraine has launched the mines over and behind advancing Russian units, causing disarray when Russian vehicles attempt to withdraw.

Russia's only notable recent tactical success has been in the Bakhmut sector, which is dominated by Wagner Group mercenary forces, currently engaged in a public feud with the Russian Ministry of Defence. There is a realistic possibility that Russia's MoD has been insistent in its drive for success in Vuhledar, partially because it wants its own success to compete with Wagner's achievements.
This post was edited on 3/16/23 at 6:58 am
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
14807 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 5:32 am to
Didn’t the Russians know the drone would have a camera to show the incident?

This disproves their narrative that the drone flew it radically causing the incident

…..we all knew this was the case but the video now proves it
Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 5:57 am to
quote:

Didn’t the Russians know the drone would have a camera to show the incident? This disproves their narrative that the drone flew it radically causing the incident …..we all knew this was the case but the video now proves it


The video doesn’t show the collision though. I have my doubts about whether the two aircraft actually collided or if the fuel was ingested by the drones engine or if the drone performed some dramatic manœuvre to avoid to the jet and stalled itself.
Posted by IAmNERD
Member since May 2017
24238 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 6:04 am to
quote:

The video doesn’t show the collision though

I thought where the video cuts out from the impact was a good indicator. As is the bent propeller blade after the incident.

Who is to say what happened before the video starts? We will never probably see any of that so its possible it was doing some abnormal flight, but I didn't see anything in what's shown.
This post was edited on 3/16/23 at 7:40 am
Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 6:09 am to
The video on the NYT website doesn’t cutout after the second pass. It continues for several more seconds and you can see that the plane and propeller are functioning properly.


ETA: On second viewing it does appear that one of the props is bent after the second pass.
This post was edited on 3/16/23 at 6:13 am
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 6:38 am to
isw

quote:

The overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks. A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Joint Press Center of the Tavriisk Defense Forces, Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, stated on March 15 that Russian offensive actions have decreased significantly over the last week and noted that daily Russian ground attacks have decreased from 90 to 100 attacks per day to 20 to 29 per day.[1] Dmytrashkivskyi reported that Russian forces have somewhat lost offensive potential due to significant manpower and equipment losses.


quote:

The overall Wagner Group offensive on Bakhmut additionally appears to be nearing culmination. Ukrainian military sources have noted a markedly decreased number of attacks in and around Bakhmut, particularly over the last few days.[7] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has recently emphasized the toll that a reported lack of ammunition is having on Wagner’s ability to pursue offensives on Bakhmut and stated on March 15 that due to ammunition shortages and heavy fighting, Wagner has had to expand its encirclement of Bakhmut.[8] Prigozhin notably claimed that Wagner captured Zalizianske, a tiny rural settlement 9km northwest of Bakhmut on the east side of the E40 Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway, which indicates that Wagner forces are likely conducting opportunistic localized attacks on settlements further north of Bakhmut that are small and relatively easier to seize


quote:

International journalists reportedly obtained the Kremlin’s long-term strategy document for destabilizing Moldova and reintegrating it back into the Russian sphere of influence by 2030.[10] The Kyiv Independent, Yahoo News, and several other international news partners released details of the Moldova report, reportedly originating from the same document as the leaked Belarus annexation strategy document.[11] Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean reportedly saw the document and stated that it is consistent with Moldova’s assessments of Russia’s ongoing campaign to undermine Moldovan sovereignty


quote:

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin commented on the reports about the dismissal of the Russian Commander of the Airborne (VDV) Forces Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky (first reported on January 20) - likely revealing Teplinsky’s affiliation with Wagner. Prigozhin stated on March 15 that Teplinsky is an honest and competent commander whom he had met before the war in passing and during “tragic” operations near Berestove, Donetsk Oblast.[14] Prigozhin stated that one of the possible reasons behind Teplinsky’s dismissal was his refusal to lie about the situation on the frontlines. Prigozhin also claimed that Teplinsky expressed his ”honest opinion,” which had saved many paratroopers. Prigozhin stated that he hopes that commanders like Teplinsky and former theater commander in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin, would take senior positions in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). Ukrainian intelligence previously linked Surovikin to Wagner, and Prigozhin’s praise for Teplinsky is similar to the praise he offered Surovikin in October 2022


quote:

Continued Russian efforts to portray the war in Ukraine as existential to Russian domestic security by establishing additional air defense installations in areas that will never see hostilities is reportedly sparking internal backlash. Russian independent opposition outlet The Insider reported on March 14 that Russian forces are establishing additional S-400 air defense systems in residential areas and protected nature zones in Moscow, generating backlash for potentially endangering civilians and cutting down heavily forested areas for the installations.[20] The Insider reported that Kremlin-affiliated Telegram channels denied reports of the additional air defense installations.[21] The Bryansk Oblast Duma reported on March 9 that Russian State Duma Defense Committee Head Andrey Kartapolov proposed using public utilities payments to fund the installation of air defense systems to defend against ”terrorist attacks.”[22] The Bryansk Oblast Duma later removed this initiative from its website after the initiative garnered public attention on March 15 and blamed its publication on unspecified hackers


quote:

Russian President Vladimir Putin used his March 15 meeting with the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office to continue to bolster his reputation as an involved and effective wartime leader.[24] Putin identified several lines of the war effort for the Prosecutor General’s Office to regulate and improve upon, including timely payment and social support to Russian military personnel and their families, timely payment for defense industrial base (DIB) workers, proper usage of the DIB’s allocated funds, law enforcement efforts in occupied Ukraine, and measures to support and protect orphaned children. Putin praised the Prosecutor General’s Office for its ongoing efforts but emphasized throughout his speech that Russia needs more weapons and protection against external threats. Putin has attempted to reinvigorate his image as a wartime leader since late 2022 by framing himself as mobilizing the Russian DIB to a robust wartime footing.[25] He is also working to mobilize the DIB, but publicized meetings of this type are more likely staged for imagistic purposes than effective.


quote:

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Syrian President Bashar Assad in Moscow, Russia on March 15. NOTE: A version of this text will also appear in The Critical Threat Project’s (CTP) March 15 Iran Update.

Russian news outlet RIA Novosti claimed that Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that topics for discussion included Syria-Russian relations, Syrian post-war reconstruction, and Syrian-Turkish relations.[26] According to the Kremlin readout of the meeting, Assad thanked Putin for the Russian military’s ”decisive contribution” in Syria.


Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 6:38 am to
quote:

quote:

Key Takeaways

The overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks.

The overall Wagner Group offensive on Bakhmut appears to be nearing culmination.

International journalists reportedly obtained the Kremlin’s long-term strategy document for destabilizing and reintegrating Moldova back into the Russian sphere of influence by 2030.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin commented on the reports about the dismissal of the Russian Commander of the Airborne Forces Mikhail Teplinsky - likely revealing Teplinsky’s affiliation with Wagner.

The Russian State Duma adopted the law on punishment for “discreditation” of all participants of the “special military operation” in Ukraine on March 14 to foster self-censorship in Russian society.

Continued Russian efforts to portray the war in Ukraine as existential to Russian domestic security by establishing additional air defense installations in areas that will never see hostilities is reportedly sparking internal backlash.

Russian President Vladimir Putin used his March 15 meeting with the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office to continue to bolster his reputation as an involved and effective wartime leader.

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Syrian President Bashar al Assad in Moscow, Russia on March 15.

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks northwest of Svatove and conducted limited ground attacks on the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued advancing in and around Bakhmut and conducted ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted to conduct offensive actions across the Kakhovka Reservoir in Kherson Oblast.

The Kremlin reportedly tasked the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to recruit 400,000 contract servicemen starting on April 1.

Ukrainian partisans killed a Russian collaborator in an IED attack in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast.

Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 7:58 am to
quote:

The above article appears to be based on the below twitter video that claims President Erdogan says "verdigimiz sözün geregini yerine getirecegiz." (Translation: We will fulfill our promise.) in response to a question about Finland's NATO membership, which isn't exactly clear as no mention of what that promise may be is made.



Well he should. He has extorted everything that he could out of the West. He got his planes from the US.
Posted by jfan244888
Soda City, SC
Member since Jul 2021
1134 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 8:02 am to
Poland has approved transfer of 4 Mug 29s to Ukraine. They rest area being serviced and repaired before transfer.

LINK
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5645 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 8:03 am to
duplicate of post above

I wonder if they are capable of launching Storm Shadow...
This post was edited on 3/16/23 at 8:13 am
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15671 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 8:36 am to
quote:

Well he should. He has extorted everything that he could out of the West. He got his planes from the US.


As well as from Russia. He's getting cheap as dirt crude oil now carried in shuttle tankers. Thus, cheaper than India is getting it. China has replaced its US imports with similar from Sakhalin Island via shuttle tankers. Good stuff of teapot refineries, not so good for integrated refineries.
This post was edited on 3/16/23 at 8:37 am
Posted by Burhead
Member since Dec 2014
2100 posts
Posted on 3/16/23 at 8:39 am to
It looks like the first aircraft transfers are indeed happening. Poland announced in the coming days they will send 4 MiG-29s and Slovakia has also pledged to send the 12 MiG-29AS they retired in August as well. Those particular models were upgraded in 2008 to be NATO compatible.
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