re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Thinking more about this bit from Budanov's interview,

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(B): Nothing has changed, and there will be decisive battles from mid to late spring.

(I): Will they decide the fate of the war?

(B): Yes, this is a turning point.

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I really think that this spring is a turning point, one way or another.

Ukraine is going to try to drive south to the Sea of Azov and cut the Russian "land bridge" in two. This is an operation that Zelensky pushed for his military to do last summer, and he was only dissuaded when repeated wargames conducted with NATO leaders repeatedly showed too great a risk of failure and/or unacceptable losses.

All the NATO tanks, IFVs, and other armor that has been given to Ukraine in the last few months has been given with this purpose.

With Ukraine getting GLSDB, JDAM-ER, and Storm Shadow, I think that the chances of this operation are much better than without (and I still think that Biden will give some ATACMS). I expect Ukraine to begin using them in shaping operations in the next few weeks. In fact, the 13 or so explosions in Mariupol over the last two nights could even be considered part of that. Ukraine will try to take out Kerch and the key Crimean railway junction at Dzhankoi. So Ukraine will attempt to prepare for the offensive with a campaign to degrade logistics and supplies to the Russian front in the South.

It's a really big front too. Ukraine could attack south from Vuhledar towards Mariupol, or from Orikhiv towards Melitopol, or anywhere in between. My assumption is that Ukraine will do a number of feints and/or recon attacks to clear mines and prepare some 10-15 possible lines of attack, to fix Russian forces and keep them spread out along the line -- I think that this could start by the end of March.

Ukraine had a warm and dry winter, so the mud season should be short, and the main offensive could begin by mid-April. I think a lot about the comment from the NATO logistics officer who told a reporter last month that if equipment donations don't make it to one of the three NATO logistics staging locations by the end of March, then they won't make it there in time.

And it will either work or it won't. I think that it will, because I think that all of the governments providing equipment for this offensive aren't doing so, only for the operation to fail. I am confident that Sec. Austin and his NATO colleagues have wargamed this offensive numerous times -- they aren't stupid.

If this spring offensive fails, then the war will degenerate into a true stalemate, Ukraine's NATO allies will eventually lose interest into pouring money into the conflict, and a very awkward and hated negotiated settlement will end the conflict for the foreseeable future.

On the other hand, if the operation succeeds, then Crimea and the part of southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts that is west of the line of attack ... 100% of it will become completely cut off. With GLSDB, Storm Shadow, and JDAM-ER taking out Kerch, destroying every Russian airfield in Crimea, and hitting any ship that tries to dock, Russian forces in Crimea will be completely unable to resupply.

Ukraine won't need to launch some massive assault to take Crimea. It will ultimately take Crimea the same way that it took Kherson. And the strike force that Ukraine used to drive to the sea will not turn west towards Crimea, but rather east, towards Mariupol.

So, I have difficulty imagining a situation where the general contours of the war's end would not be obvious by the end of May.

Am I wrong? If so, please explain.

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Good point but the west is in a much better position to replenish war stocks faster than Russia can.

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Do you have a source on this? I've tried to find country of origin for inputs to our military weapons and there's not a lot of information. Ukraine and China are the main suppliers of refined antimony for example and I've heard from money managers that it's much more than ammunition. Metal, alloys etc...

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I've tried to find country of origin for inputs to our military weapons and there's not a lot of information.

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Hopefully the answers can’t be found on the internet.

There is no good reason for the DOD to let people know where we get our weapons/ammo., how was much we have, and where it is stored.

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NATO tweeted this out an hour ago: We are th Na'vi and Han Solo I'm continually upset about how fake and gay the world is now.

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We are die hard John McClain, but with F-16s we would be die hard 4 John McClain.

We are the old guy from up refusing to leave our house and improvising aerial vehicles.

We are Rob Roy raging against unfair and corrupt lending practices, and also I think the rape of our wife, not sure, it’s been a while since we saw that movie and it’s overshadowed by William Wallace.

Hinkle is just another dweeb looking for YouTube views

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If anyone has been paying careful attention the last couple of months, they would notice that recent donations to Ukraine have included lots of mine-clearing and bridge-laying equipment.

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There's a YouTube video of that Kraken Unit operating in several towns around Ukraine and I was shocked at how many roads were mined in the areas they were operating. I wasn't sure if it was stuff the UAF laid down, or if the Russians mined it and left it as they were pushed out of the areas. But mines just seem like such an outdated tactic that are rarely successful during actual combat but are being heavily deployed in this war.

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But mines just seem like such an outdated tactic that are rarely successful during actual combat but are being heavily deployed in this war.

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you need to look at the videos of columns of tanks driving down a road. tank one hits a mine and is destroyed. tank 2 drives around take 1 and goes boom itself. rinse repeat and you have 4 tanks destroyed to mines

then another vie=deo where two tanks are headed to a gap in a tree line. tank 1 hits a mine and is destroyed, tank 2 pauses for a min then moves forward an passes tank 1 to the left then hits a mine of his own....

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Russians considerable naval advantage

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Russia fears land based missiles sinking their navy and stay well out of range these days

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Anti personnel and anti armor mines are a tremendous force multipliers if properly laid.

The Russians are so untrained/lazy they initially just laid mines on the roads, which the Ukrainians picked up and moved then used against the Russians.

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Exactly. Minefields are not a defense in and of themselves. They’re not intended to hold an enemy at bay on their own. Instead what they are intended do is slow down and hinder any enemy advance and make it more susceptible to direct and indirect defensive fires.

A minefield on its own is of little use. A minefield laid in front of a defensive line in depth with artillery and air support is a real problem for any attacking enemy force.