re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Sounds like we are days away from Moldova having a ________ problem

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US tells Ukraine it won’t send ATACMS. Sending them to Ukraine would dwindle US stockpiles and harm the US military’s readiness for future fights, US officials said

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?Russia does not have the strength to attack Ukraine from Transnistria, NATO Deputy Secretary General said.

Moscow is planning a coup d'etat in Moldova, but will not be able to cordon off Ukraine with the help of forces in the Transnistrian region.

Right now, Russia does not have enough forces to encircle Ukraine from behind with the help of Transnistria, and such a plan still exists, then capture Odesa, and then get a land corridor to western Transnistria. We do not see Russia having the strength to do this"

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(Q): How long did it take you to turn a man in sneakers and jeans, who was living his civilian life a few hours ago, into an artilleryman?

(A): We had very limited time, first of all. Secondly, the most motivated people came to us on the first day, which had a lot to do with it. So in 10-14 days, we were ready to participate in combat operations. We learned very quickly.

The fact that we had many IT people join us definitely played a big role. So it took them 2-4 days to explain the work specifics at the artillery reconnaissance and fire control points.

Q: And if we talk about the people who work directly on the howitzers, was two weeks enough for them too?
A: Yes. It all depends on the teachers. Our classes were personally taught by the commander of the 59th Division, Lieutenant Colonel Churbanov, who is a very good methodologist. He also had two smart battery commanders who participated in the fighting from 2014 to 2016, during the first mobilization. They came back to us by phone.

And thanks to this, it is very easy to train a gunner and a gun commander in two weeks. In 2006, when I was still a battery commander and we went to the training ground for a month, and a half a year, no one was particularly engaged in combat training. The soldiers went on patrols, cleaned the territory, whitewashed… Sometimes they fired.

Nowadays, I, or any career officer who have been in the military for at least six months, can train a gunner in two weeks from an average citizen. No matter who he was in civilian life – an IT specialist, a janitor, a manager. Another example is the time it takes for our military to master Western weapons. To be more precise, it is correct to say not “Western” but “weapons provided by partners”. For the French or Americans, it takes six months to train on the M777. Ours takes 2-3 weeks.

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(Q): What is the ratio of Western to Ukrainian and Soviet weapons in your brigade?
(A): As of now, it is 50/50. I hope that after Ramstein, another divizion will be rearmed.

(Q): What Western weapons do you have? The M777, for example, is publicly known.
(A): We also have TRF – French guns. It is a predecessor to Caesar, but it is a trailer mounted weapon, very similar to FH70, which everyone has probably seen.

(Q): Can you use high-precision Excalibur shells on the TRF?
(A): I can’t answer that… Theoretically, of course, yes – the caliber is the same.

(Q): How do you assess the role of Western weapons in this war? Would Ukraine be able to defend itself or counterattack without Western weapons?
(A): The point here is not that Western weapons are available in principle, but in logistics. Why did we start using Western weapons more?

Not only because it is more accurate but because, in addition to its advantages, it also has disadvantages. The main reason is the lack of 122 and 152 millimeters of Soviet-style ammunition. Since the world has more stocks of 155mm, we switched to it. And now the percentage of 155s being used is ten times higher than 152s.

Just like in the First World War, logistics worked in the Second World War. Whoever has a larger supply of resources wins.

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(I): But, for example, the infantry has discovered a target, reported it to you, and what happens next – what is the sequence of actions?
(O): There are several ways. First, the infantry sees something and directly contacts me via the combat control chat, gives me the approximate coordinates and asks me to deliver a fire strike. If there is no Internet, then radio stations are used, but this is a longer way.

Now almost all infantry battalions have Mavic, some have Matrice, and the super-fashionable ones even have some kind of “wings”, i.e. airplane-type drones. And that’s all they do – they stream from the drone. I don’t even have to give the coordinates, I can see where the enemy is and strike there.

(I): What is the speed of your reaction to such a message?
(O): If we saw something right now [nodding to the monitors ], it would take three to five minutes, and a shell would land there.

The system can turn around and fire, or it may need time to move, get into a combat position, and practice the actions of the gunners – then it will take 20-30 minutes.

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By the way, they don’t have as many shells as they did at the beginning. Not even shells, but charges. A shell is a cast-iron block, it can be from 1941 or 1943, and it will not be harmed if no one drops it or cracks it.

But the gunpowder, that is, the charge deteriorates. We lived in the same state, or to be more precise, we lived under the occupation of the Soviet Union. So knowing what kind of warehouses they have and how they store it all, I’m sure that half of them don’t have gunpowder anymore. That is why they are also saving a lot of money now.

Gunpowder is not poured into a can, it is stored in special bags, and the bags tear over time. Accordingly, the initial velocity of the projectile will not be the same. It won’t work to put all the shells like candy in one plate.

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Russia is banking on a numbers game. They think they can sustain casualties on a rate that Ukraine can only keep up with for a time.

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That could be true but it only gets him so far. The prisoners are getting wary and he's running out of ethnic minorities. If he doesn't wrap this up quickly, the next mobilization will have to sweep up middle class Russians from Moscow and St Petersburg who have so far avoided service. That's a whole different proposition, which is why Putin has been trying to avoid it. But they're the only untapped pool of manpower he has left.

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