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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 2/12/23 at 10:47 pm to
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
773 posts
Posted on 2/12/23 at 10:47 pm to
quote:

And the following question about ATACMS the answer is yes they can be targeted by air defenses. The ATACMS flies faster than the standard rockets we give Ukraine for the HIMARS though so it would be harder to hit. It wouldn’t be easy for the Russians but it can absolutely be targeted and hit. I would think the U.S. factors that in to what they already send is intercept rate.


That was pretty much what I found in the below links. The ATACMS is about Mach .5+ faster than the HIMARS system they currently have (Mach 3+ versus Mach 2.4). In theory the S-400 and to a lesser extent the S-300 could hit it, but the non-ballistic trajectory ATACMS employs would not make it a certainty.

Details on ATACMS:

Military Today - ATACMS

Wikipedia - MGM-140 ATACMS


Below article mentions the HIMARS speed and interesting claim that Ukraine employed GRAD systems to spoof air defences when launching HIMARS. I wonder if a similar strategy could be used for ATACMS.

Global Defence Corp - Hard to kill, why HIMARS are so difficult to intercept - Aug '22

Edit: Grammar
This post was edited on 2/12/23 at 10:49 pm
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
17943 posts
Posted on 2/12/23 at 11:01 pm to
I think this is a good explanation of why Russia isn't going to shoot down ATACMS:

quote:

While the ATACMS does assume a ballistic arc to its target, it also performs a series of rapid and sudden turns and course corrections on the way to its aimpoint. This is a deliberate function of the ATACMS, as this seemingly erratic flight behavior makes it exceptionally difficult to track or intercept. This class of weapon is thus widely referred to as a "quasi-ballistic missile", though the US Army has also referred to the ATACMS as a "maneuvering missile".


Basically, the missile twists and turns on its way to very high and almost directly over the target, and then it blasts downwards to the target at speeds above Mach 3.
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
25796 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 2:15 am to
quote:

So what should the following armor have done?


Honestly, I do not know the armor battle drill for encountering mines specifically, maybe Segundo or Vader can elaborate.

First, they should fall back following their tracks. I suppose spinning around on an axis makes the most sense for speed. The last thing they want to do is go forward or stay in the area. Any obstacle should be covered by direct or indirect fire. If you stay there either the enemy will be close and open fire, preferably by taking out the rear vehicle, or a forward observer which could be a drone now will begin to direct indirect fire onto the tanks. The artillery in the area should already have accurate coordinates for the minefield.

So move back to a safer area and either call in the engineers or start prepping and carrying out your breaching operation yourself. They may have to do the latter since engineer assets are limited. Even the US military has limited engineer assets and I have seen little evidence of combat engineers in the combined arms of Russia. I saw some in the initial column headed to Kyiv but the lack of it on the battlefield indicates a lot of it may be lost. One general rule on the battlefield is shoot the funny stuff. Vehicles and material that looks different from the rest are there for some specific purpose, taking them out almost always has a bigger impact on the fighting ability of a unit than something there is a lot of. Engineer vehicles "look funny" so they get targeted. The only engineer assets I have seen operating on the battlefield for Russia are rear-echelon bridging and trenching machines.

How engineers or infantry would breach the field depends a lot on the type and size of the field and what assets are available. In a perfect world, you would have a MICLIC (mine clearing line charge) available and move it up to the start of the minefield. It fires an "explosive rope" out 100 meters and when it detonates it blows all the mines in a 100m x 8m lane using overpressure. The lane still has to be proofed and marked (not so much in heavy fire and/or during a time sensitive operation). A MICLIC requires fairly good control of the area which is not always available. Combat engineers often have a very dangerous job. One alternative is using an armored vehicle with a mine flail or mine rollers to clear a lane. Less effective but still can be used is a cluster bomb which if properly placed can act line a MICLIC, artillery shelling can have a similar effect but isn't as effective and leaves those big craters. A group of combat engineers with blocks of C4 with timed fuses running through a surface laid field is effective but dangerous. You also have the old school slow version of disarming each mine but they have to be treated as if they all have anti-tampering devices. This makes for slow excruciating work even if it is surface laid on soil, if it is on concrete or asphalt where you can't dig and get your hand underneath to probe for an anti-tampering device it requires you to GENTLY slide each mine to the edge of the roadway.

The alternative to dealing with the minefield is to find an alternate route, however, if the enemy is using a minefield and natural obstacles to channel you in a particular direction you can be almost certain you will be entering a kill zone.


TLDR: go back from whence you came and formulate a plan, going forward is a likely death wish.



ETA I should say in fairness the tankers behind may have thought it was artillery.
This post was edited on 2/13/23 at 2:43 am
Posted by jeffsdad
Member since Mar 2007
21466 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 5:12 am to
Thanks! Appreciate the answer.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2566 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 6:32 am to
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 February 2023

As of 07 February 2023, open source imagery indicated Russia had likely further bolstered defensive fortifications in central Zaporizhzhia Oblast, southern Ukraine, particularly near the town of Tarasivka. As of 08 January 2023, Russia had established defensive fortifications between the towns of Vasilyvka and Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Despite the current operational focus on central Donbas, Russia remains concerned about guarding the extremities of its extended front line. This is demonstrated by continued construction of defensive fortifications in Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk oblasts and deployments of personnel. Russia's front line in Ukraine amounts to approximately 1,288 km with the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast frontline at 192 km.

A major Ukrainian breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia would seriously challenge the viability of Russia's 'land bridge' linking Russia's Rostov region and Crimea; Ukrainian success in Luhansk would further undermine Russia's professed war aim of 'liberating' the Donbas. Deciding which of these threats to prioritise countering is likely one of the central dilemmas for Russian operational planners.
Posted by beerJeep
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2016
35111 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 6:39 am to
quote:

In a perfect world, you would have a MICLIC (mine clearing line charge) available and move it up to the start of the minefield.


These mother frickers are bad arse.
LINK
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
11821 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 8:01 am to
quote:


ETA I should say in fairness the tankers behind may have thought it was artillery.



apparently the driver of the russian armor has a very limited view (see videos of armor running over their friendly infantry or running into other armor units). like you said, they may have assumed the explosion was artillery, ATGMs, another tank. In these instances, they need to keep moving of risk being a sitting duck for the next round.

Honestly, i picture Boris and Natasha from Rocky and Bullwinkle and figure figure they tell themselves "commander say go here, so i go here....."
This post was edited on 2/13/23 at 8:04 am
Posted by El Segundo Guy
SE OK
Member since Aug 2014
9635 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 8:20 am to
quote:

I do not know the armor battle drill for encountering mines specifically


Interesting stuff. We always needed a MICLIC. And you are right, we would all be in overwatch positions to cover the obstacle while engineers were working. We relied on artillery mainly for cover smoke.

Each platoon had a plow tank. After the MICLIC, when the engineers gave the green light, artillery would lay down smoke every damn where.

The designated plow tank was the first through the obstacle to "proof" the lane and would have to traverse the main gun over the side and max elevate it in case of the plow detonating a mine. And behind the first plow tank there is the whole company hauling arse to get through the chokepoint obstacle asap. That plow tank driver cannot slow down under any circumstances.
This post was edited on 2/13/23 at 8:28 am
Posted by El Segundo Guy
SE OK
Member since Aug 2014
9635 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 8:31 am to
Speaking of engineers, I can only remember seeing one or two but I remember watching them use some kind of smoke generator vehicle.

It was like a 113 or something blowing all kinds of smoke for an obstacle. Pretty wild.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5179 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 9:52 am to
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
17943 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 10:48 am to
The next Ramstein meeting starts tomorrow, only this one isn't actually at Ramstein, because tomorrow and Wednesday is the annual meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels.

The last Ramstein meeting featured a lot of drama, as Germany played the part of a diva. I don't expect that this time, but I do expect the discussion to sort out NATO's future aviation donations to Ukraine, even if big announcements are unlikely tomorrow.

With the anniversary of the invasion just ten days in the future, I think that a lot of nations may hold off on the actual announcements until then. With President Biden heading to Poland for the anniversary (presumably to meet with Zelensky), I am sure that the US will wait to announce anything (though details may leak).

The one-year anniversary of the invasion will cause a number of retrospective pieces in the news media, as people look back at tragedies such as Bucha and victories such as the sinking of the Moskva.

I feel sure that NATO in general, and Biden in particular, are going to want to make a big statement -- to tell both Ukraine and Russia that our support is not wavering, and our resolve has not weakened. When Zelensky came to Washington, the result was the donation of the Patriot missile battery, and this meeting will also result in a "splashy" donation. As I said in another post, I think that there are three options to do that:

1) ATACMS
2) F-16s
3) A lot of heavy armor (e.g. 200 more Bradleys)

I'm curious if y'all have any predictions.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5179 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 11:17 am to
US and Brazilian embassies advising all citizens to leave Russia (Brazil included Belarus) citing expected full scale invasion of Ukraine and fears of mass mobilization.

ETA: obviously this sort of guidance isn’t new to the situation, but seems telling giving timing and speculation.

ETA 2: adding France specially referencing Belarus and impending offensive
This post was edited on 2/13/23 at 12:00 pm
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2566 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 11:31 am to
quote:

I'm curious if y'all have any predictions.


The US will announce another package so that Biden can tout how much the US is doing financially to defend Ukraine. I don't think the package will include any new long range fire capabilities or aircraft (I hope I am wrong on this).

Long shot - I hope the package includes a replacement for StarLink by the military. If there is a viable substitute it should have happened months ago.

This post was edited on 2/13/23 at 11:34 am
Posted by lsu777
Lake Charles
Member since Jan 2004
31402 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 11:56 am to
quote:

Long shot - I hope the package includes a replacement for StarLink by the military. If there is a viable substitute it should have happened months ago.



can i ask why? did elon pull out or something that im not aware of?
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2566 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 12:07 pm to
Reuters: SpaceX curbed Ukraine's use of Starlink Internet for drones.

Elon Musk's SpaceX has put measures in place to prevent Ukraine from using the company's Starlink satellite internet service for controlling drones, SpaceX's president said on Feb. 8, Reuters reports.
12:53 AM · Feb 9, 2023


Twitter


There were also unexplained outages during the Ukraine offensive last summer.
This post was edited on 2/13/23 at 12:08 pm
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
98277 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 12:16 pm to
quote:

(MENAFN- UkrinForm) The lack of winter uniforms in the Russian army led to a significant increase in frostbite cases. In healthcare facilities of Horlivka, Donetsk region, up to 30% of all wounded have such a diagnosis. This is stated in the report of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 06:00, February 13, published on facebook .
LINK
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
23965 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

a replacement for StarLink by the military. If there is a viable substitute it should have happened months ago.



Already done.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5179 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 1:09 pm to
Twitter

Russians appear to be staging again at Pogonovo, where they previously staged for the original invasion. According to Google that’s 346.5 km NE of Kharkiv.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
17943 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 1:14 pm to
From WarTranslated:

quote:

An interview with colonel Oleh Faydyuk, Commander of the 45th Separate Artillery Brigade.


Really interesting stuff in this interview. Here were a couple that stood out:

quote:

(I): What should be the minimum target for you to open fire on it? How many people, what type of fortification, and what kind of equipment?


(O): It all depends on the situation. You may need to open fire on three people, for example, if they are UAV operators.

There is no need to spare shells for “worms”, as Magyar calls them, because they will do more damage if left. That is, there is no “less than 10 people – we do not open fire” policy.


For example, in Soledar, the Wagner PMC developed a tactic of acting in small groups without equipment so that we would not use artillery against them. That is, 3-5 people with shovels go to “bury themselves”, and assault groups immediately join them, and so they gradually move forward. There is no classical offensive – columns, companies, platoons with equipment – in our area.



quote:

(I): What is the Ukrainian and Russian artillery ratio in the Bakhmut sector?


(O): As of now, it is one-to-one.
This post was edited on 2/13/23 at 1:15 pm
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
25796 posts
Posted on 2/13/23 at 1:16 pm to
quote:

Speaking of engineers, I can only remember seeing one or two but I remember watching them use some kind of smoke generator vehicle.

It was like a 113 or something blowing all kinds of smoke for an obstacle. Pretty wild.


That is an M1059 which is on an M113 chassis. In the reserves, my Engineer Battalion was attached to a Chemical Brigade that had a smoke generation platoon somewhere in the structure but I never actually saw the unit and I don't know where it was based. There is also a smoke generation platform on the M60 (or was) it could be equipped with a blade, mine flail, or proofing rollers. The heavy mech/corp mech units use the M1059 and/or the M60-based unit and corp motorized units use smoke generators on Humvees. I saw the M1059s the year we went to NTC and the amount of smoke they can produce is impressive.
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