re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

It's amazing. The drone operators in the front-line infantry are also streaming their drone video to this artillery command center, which is well behind the front line.

So, the drone operator can still see something and call it in, but the big screens in the command center mean that the artillery center will likely see it before the the drone operator, and they will quickly direct a firing unit to hit the target.

It seems so quaint to read things like this Wikipedia article on how a US Field artillery team needs a "forward observer" -- no, it doesn't work that way anymore, because drones have changed everything about the artillery targeting process.

quote:

---

That seems to me to be a fundamental game-changer compared to previous conflicts. Can one of you with experience comment on that? Or am I maybe misunderstanding the context he's speaking in?

---

it is.

the US also has loitering drones that are stealth and float up to like 50k feet and watch the whole battlefield. we have been able to see the whole battlefield for a long time now, problem with afgan is they would hide as civilians then come out last second. in a real protracted war against a conventional military......the world has no fricking clue.

if you thought the 1992 shock and awe and the one in 2003 were impressive....thats fricking childs play compared to today. would be like comparing the korean war tech to the first gulf war tech. not even comprehendable for a country like russia.

also have bombs we can drop from them that break into around 100 smaller bombs all that are smart and attack based on either heat signature or gps

its why a column like the russians came into ukraine with, would last about 2 seconds.

now as mentioned....we aint giving them are good shite and sure as frick not giving our classified shite. Ukraine has caused a stalemate with the 2nd largest military in the world using our tech from 2 decades ago mainly. they will win now that we are giving them tech and equipment from this century. i mean look at the game changer the m142 himar is and that was developed in the late 90s, although not in service until 2010.

thats why i always laugh when people talk about our weak military. go to fricking benning or bragg and tell me we are fricking weak. people have no clue.

and thats not mentioning crazy arse tech the navy and AF have. which is nuts in and of itself.

quote:

---

If we saw something right now [nodding to the monitors ], it would take three to five minutes, and a shell would land there.

---

quote:

---

hat seems to me to be a fundamental game-changer compared to previous conflicts.

---

There are many reasons the Russians are performing poorly and incurring massive casualties.

Intel capabilities and secure comm capabilities (speed) are what is devastating the Russians. They cant mass or stage any numbers of equipment or personnel anywhere near the battle space. They cant fire one round of artillery fire without that location being fixed.

So when a Ukrainian round goes down range it hits its target and kills Russians and/or equipment. The Russians may have drone intel but local anti drone capability is much better now so most times they fire blind. When they do that that the Ukrainians let them expend ammunition.

Everyone in Europe listens to the Russians "communicating". There are no secrets what they are doing or trying to do. The "offensive" in the South has had a couple of starts, complete failure both attempts.

I would add counter battery technology to the above, the Russians have to shoot and move or else. Thats what the artillery officer is alluding to, round goes out 5 minutes later that grid coordinate goes boom.

quote:

---

shot out

---

The old days. PID and a firing solution are a computer function now.

quote:

---

Don't know much about HIMARS because that was after my time but watching the artillery videos and seeing how accurate they are has me watching in amazement. Makes it seem like like what we had was childs play.

---

Its so good the Marine Corps are building assault Battalions around them. Traded tanks for HIMARS.

Seeing reports that the Russians are once again in retreat from Bakhmut.

Map of Russian fortifications constructed since the invasion began from the Twitter account @bradyafr that DabosDynasty posted a few pages ago.

Melitopol North/NE approaches got a lot of love.

Google Maps - Russian fortifications

ISW update

quote:

---

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin signaled on February 14 that the Ukraine Defense Contact Group’s 54 member states will continue to support Ukraine in the long run. Austin stated that the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (a coalition of 54 states supporting Ukraine’s defense) will “support Ukraine's fight for freedom over the long haul” and will support Ukraine during a spring counteroffensive

---

quote:

---

The Washington Post reported that US officials have privately signaled to Ukraine that Western security aid to Ukraine is finite, however. The Washington Post reported on February 13 that an anonymous US government official stated that US government officials are trying to “impress upon [Ukrainian officials] that [the US Government] can’t do anything and everything forever.

---

quote:

---

Western reporting indicates that there continue to be Western concerns about Ukraine’s determination to hold Bakhmut. The Washington Post also reported that US defense planners assess that Ukrainian forces are unable to simultaneously defend Bakhmut and launch a spring counteroffensive and have urged Ukraine to prioritize the spring counteroffensive over defending Bakhmut.[

---

quote:

---

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly recruiting convicts and mimicking the Wagner Group’s treatment of convicts as cannon fodder. CNN reported that the Russian MoD had been directly recruiting prisoners who deployed to Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, into formations of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 2nd Army Corps in October 2022

---

quote:

---

The Russian MoD’s decision to recruit prisoners is an indicator that the Kremlin seeks to exploit convicts for future human wave attacks in a similar fashion as the Wagner Group despite convicts’ limited combat effectiveness. Representative of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate Andriy Usov stated that Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov are creating a convict cannon fodder reserve that they could directly control through the MoD’s own private military companies

---

quote:

---

The Russian MoD’s recruitment of prisoners in fall 2022 may also coincide with the intensifying criticism from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin. Prigozhin began to publicly attack Russian military commanders in early October, and the Russian MoD’s intervention in his recruitment scheme may have ignited some of these grievances with the conventional Russian military and MoD bureaucracy

---

quote:

---

Key Takeaways

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin signaled on February 14 that the Ukraine Defense Contact Group’s 54 member states will continue to support Ukraine in the long run. The Washington Post reported that US officials have privately signaled to Ukraine that Western security aid to Ukraine is finite, however.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly recruiting convicts and mimicking the Wagner Group’s treatment of convicts as cannon fodder.

Russian forces continued offensive actions in the Kupyansk direction and along the Svatove-Kreminna line on February 14.

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast or in Kherson, Mykolaiv, or western Zaporizhia oblasts on February 14.

Russian ground forces on the Kola Peninsula in northwestern Russia have been reduced to one-fifth of their initial strength numbers before the invasion of Ukraine, supporting ISW’s longtime assessment that the Kremlin is not concerned about a NATO conventional military threat against Russia.

A Ukrainian and Tatar partisan group reportedly conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack on a car carrying two Russian military personnel and two Russian special service representatives in Nova Kakhovka on February 10.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may meet on February 17.

---

article from Meduza
A crisis of abundance and other paradoxes UCLA economist Oleg Itskhoki talks about Russia’s economy under sanctions, why it ‘failed to collapse,’ and the crisis around the corner.

It's a good but long article. To summarize, the Russian economy did not collapse in 2022 because of robust export earnings, a budget surplus and a non-dollarized monetary system. But a gradual decline will continue.

Not in the article, but it seems like every other week for the past year the Washington Post was running a story about the collapse of the Russian economy.

Looks like the Kerch bridge is near to being repaired, at least for motor vehicles.

Twitter - @NOELreports

Some interesting observations in the thread that the background shows the rail bridge and how they appear to be repairing the most compromised sections with single modules that are rolled in on the track itself rather the entire span.