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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 2/13/23 at 10:08 pm to NOLATiger163
Posted on 2/13/23 at 10:08 pm to NOLATiger163
It was most certainly a feature, they were used to hold the line and apply pressure on Ukraine while regular army units were reinforced and a portion of mobiks were trained up for the spring.
Wagner was used so they could be blamed if it didn't work or played badly at home. It was moderately successful hence why the use of prisoners is now reportedly being moved to the Russian army proper, though as has been noted this is likely to try and prevent another formal mobilisation call.
Putin isn't stupid, he has spent decades cultivating the way he is perceived in the West and a disregard for human life is not a new aspect. Him reinforcing it now is as much a part of the calculation in my view as the strategic use of the prisoners.
I disagree it is reason to give him a better deal though, with the vindication of a positive outcome he would remain in power with access to a nuclear arsenal and a disregard of life. I highly doubt a Russian nuclear option rests solely on his regard, or lack thereof, for human life and Russia knows that if they take that step the party would be over.
Wagner was used so they could be blamed if it didn't work or played badly at home. It was moderately successful hence why the use of prisoners is now reportedly being moved to the Russian army proper, though as has been noted this is likely to try and prevent another formal mobilisation call.
Putin isn't stupid, he has spent decades cultivating the way he is perceived in the West and a disregard for human life is not a new aspect. Him reinforcing it now is as much a part of the calculation in my view as the strategic use of the prisoners.
I disagree it is reason to give him a better deal though, with the vindication of a positive outcome he would remain in power with access to a nuclear arsenal and a disregard of life. I highly doubt a Russian nuclear option rests solely on his regard, or lack thereof, for human life and Russia knows that if they take that step the party would be over.
2
Posted on 2/13/23 at 10:23 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
That’s a truly fascinating interview. The medic’s accent is truly bizarre, and that journalist appears to be fantastic at his job.
Yes it got me a few times as well! He mentioned he spent a lot of time in the UK and most recently lived in Sweden though I thought I got a bit of a South African twang at times. His body language got me too, "jumping out of his own skin while sitting still" crossed my mind more than once.
The journalist was very good, penetrating questions and did not get affronted when he got a blunt reply, if anything he became more conversational and genuinely seemed to empathise with him.
Whether it was by intent or just because it's a rough cut from the warzone the way it was shot also impressed me, to see the camera being moved around, zooming, and losing of focus at times gave it far more gravitas.
Edit: Quote, one day I will remember before submitting
This post was edited on 2/13/23 at 10:24 pm
Posted on 2/13/23 at 10:31 pm to GOP_Tiger
Just an absolutely infuriating article in the Washington Post: LINK
First of all, this is supposed to be a news article, not an opinion piece, and saying "Europe’s long-term appetite for funding the war effort remains unclear"? Unclear to whom? That's just poor journalism.
To the extent that this is accurate reporting, it's a indication of just how out of touch so much functionaries are in the Biden administration.
Ukraine can't start its spring offensive until it gets all this new Western armor into theater and gets people trained to use and maintain it. That's probably not until late April at the earliest. So, Ukraine isn't supposed to defend anything until then? Does that even make sense?
And all the concern about whether or not Congress will authorize more money to Ukraine? First of all, it just means that the Biden administration will have to negotiate. Some Republicans are not in favor of more spending to Ukraine, but McConnell is, and the GOP chairmen of the House Armed Services Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee are both very strongly pro-Ukraine. The rest of the GOP just needs more aid to Ukraine to be combined with some reasonable effort to control our southern border.
Yeah, it's beyond their capability because you won't give Ukraine a dozen ATACMS. Hopefully, the Brits will make that irrelevant by giving Ukraine Storm Shadow missiles.
quote:
As the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nears, U.S. officials are telling Ukrainian leaders they face a critical moment to change the trajectory of the war, raising the pressure on Kyiv to make significant gains on the battlefield while weapons and aid from the United States and its allies are surging.
Despite promises to back Ukraine “as long as it takes,” Biden officials say recent aid packages from Congress and America’s allies represent Kyiv’s best chance to decisively change the course of the war. Many conservatives in the Republican-led House have vowed to pull back support, and Europe’s long-term appetite for funding the war effort remains unclear.
First of all, this is supposed to be a news article, not an opinion piece, and saying "Europe’s long-term appetite for funding the war effort remains unclear"? Unclear to whom? That's just poor journalism.
quote:
Yet the public show of unity belies underlying tensions over how Ukraine should focus its resources in the coming months.
The frank discussions in Kyiv last month reflected an effort by the Biden administration to bring Ukraine’s goals in line with what the West can sustain as the war approaches its one-year mark. Getting Ukraine on the same page has not always been easy, according to people familiar with the discussions, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe private talks.
For months, Ukraine has expended significant resources and troops defending Bakhmut in the eastern Donbas region. American military analysts and planners have argued that it is unrealistic to simultaneously defend Bakhmut and launch a spring counteroffensive to retake what the United States views as more critical territory.
To the extent that this is accurate reporting, it's a indication of just how out of touch so much functionaries are in the Biden administration.
Ukraine can't start its spring offensive until it gets all this new Western armor into theater and gets people trained to use and maintain it. That's probably not until late April at the earliest. So, Ukraine isn't supposed to defend anything until then? Does that even make sense?
And all the concern about whether or not Congress will authorize more money to Ukraine? First of all, it just means that the Biden administration will have to negotiate. Some Republicans are not in favor of more spending to Ukraine, but McConnell is, and the GOP chairmen of the House Armed Services Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee are both very strongly pro-Ukraine. The rest of the GOP just needs more aid to Ukraine to be combined with some reasonable effort to control our southern border.
quote:
U.S. intelligence officials have concluded, however, that retaking the heavily fortified peninsula is beyond the capability of Ukraine’s army right now, according to officials familiar with the matter, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.
Yeah, it's beyond their capability because you won't give Ukraine a dozen ATACMS. Hopefully, the Brits will make that irrelevant by giving Ukraine Storm Shadow missiles.
Posted on 2/13/23 at 10:59 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:Oh I'm not saying we should give Putin a better deal because he's ruthless; I'm saying that in his mind he probably thinks that convincing the rest of the world that he's ruthless will tend to get him a better deal. But IMO it is very much in the rest of the world's interest that any outcome be a clear and unequivocal loss for Putin.
I disagree it is reason to give him a better deal though, with the vindication of a positive outcome he would remain in power with access to a nuclear arsenal and a disregard of life. I highly doubt a Russian nuclear option rests solely on his regard, or lack thereof, for human life and Russia knows that if they take that step the party would be over.
Posted on 2/13/23 at 11:14 pm to NOLATiger163
quote:
Oh I'm not saying we should give Putin a better deal because he's ruthless; I'm saying that in his mind he probably thinks that convincing the rest of the world that he's ruthless will tend to get him a better deal. But IMO it is very much in the rest of the world's interest that any outcome be a clear and unequivocal loss for Putin.
Apologies I misinterpreted your words, we were both saying the same thing
.
Posted on 2/14/23 at 12:06 am to Chromdome35
quote:
There are several ways. First, the infantry sees something and directly contacts me via the combat control chat
I read that and the first thing I think is damn I'm old. Who knew the speed and accuracy of thumb typing would be a combat skill?
BTW I wanna give thanks to the guys that are still putting work in on this thread.
Posted on 2/14/23 at 1:58 am to ned nederlander
quote:
The medic’s accent is truly bizarre
I work with a lot of Canadians from the maritime providences, this guy is from New Brunswick. He also said he moved to England at 19. His accent is a great mashup of western England and maritime Canadian.
ETA: that was a great interview
This post was edited on 2/14/23 at 1:59 am
Posted on 2/14/23 at 6:27 am to NOLATiger163
ISW update
quote:
Moscow continues to leverage its relationship with Iran to provide military support for the war in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) intercepted audio on February 10 reportedly of two Shahed drone operators coordinating targets in what the GUR claimed was a "Kurdish dialect interspersed with Farsi words."
quote:
The Wagner Group’s continued dissemination of deliberately brutal extrajudicial execution videos and generally graphic content is normalizing an increasing level of brutality and thuggishness within the domestic Russian information space. A Wagner Group-affiliated Telegram channel posted a video on February 12 showing the brutal execution of former Wagner fighter Dmitry Yakushchenko with a sledgehammer.[7] Yakushchenko reportedly was convicted of robbery and murder in Crimea and was serving a 19-year sentence when he joined Wagner.[8] The Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel accused Yakushchenko of defecting to Ukraine and posted a video reportedly of Yakushchenko expressing pro-Ukrainian sentiments while in Ukrainian captivity.[9] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin later posted a video that appears to be of Yakushchenko alive and uninjured and thanking Wagner for forgiveness.
quote:
Russian authorities are increasingly undertaking measures to promote self-censorship in Russia under the guise of countering increased information threats resulting from the invasion of Ukraine. A representative of Russia’s Main Radio Frequency Center (GRChTs), a subsidiary of Russian state media censor Roskomnazdor, announced the launch of the "Okulus" automatic search system that automates scanning text, images, and video footage to detect state-censored content, extremist themes, calls for mass illegal activity, suicide, and pro-drug and pro-LGBTQ content (which Moscow apparently views as posing a national security threat). The GRChTs will reportedly fully develop Okulus by 2025
Independent Russian language opposition outlet Meduza reported that Roskomnazdor may soon ban YouTube and that Russian state-affiliated social media outlet VK is expanding its social media monopoly to recruit famous Russian-language content creators on YouTube to its video service. VK is also attempting to expand its music streaming service, likely in an effort to eliminate Russians’ interactions with unwanted content.[16] Russian authorities also seek to expand the scope of rhetoric eligible for censorship. A United Russia State Duma Deputy announced on February 12 that he is planning to propose legislation to introduce criminal liability for insulting Russian military figures with the titles "Hero of Russia" and "Hero of the USSR."
quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to publicly stand by the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as Russian forces continue to suffer catastrophic casualties around Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast. Putin commented on a Russian state TV show recorded on February 9 and broadcast on February 12 that Russian "naval infantry is working as it should right now" and that the Pacific and Northern fleets are "heroically fighting."[18] Putin likely deliberately praised his Pacific and Northern fleets against the backdrop of highly published and substantial losses to mechanized elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet in their assault on Vuhledar
Putin’s comment, however, may also signal an intent to reinforce the assault on Vuhledar with more mobilized forces or by recommitting remaining Northern Fleet elements to the area.
quote:
The Russian military’s use of mobilized personnel as replacements in battle-damaged units is unlikely to generate sufficient offensive capabilities for a large-scale and rapid mechanized advance. Representative of the Ukrainian Tavriisk operational direction, Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, stated that the Russian military will need to restaff the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade for the third time due to its losses in Vuhledar and previous military failures around Kyiv Oblast and Pavlivka, Donetsk Oblast.[25] Dmytrashkivskyi noted that the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade had 5,000 servicemen prior to its defeat in Vuhledar. A Russian serviceman from the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade who participated in an assault on Vuhledar told a Russian opposition outlet that the brigade was 80% to 90% staffed with mobilized men because the Russian military command consistently reinforces Russian units with mobilized servicemen.
quote:
Key Takeaways
Moscow continues to leverage its relationship with Iran to provide military support for the war in Ukraine.
The Wagner Group’s continued dissemination of deliberately brutal extrajudicial execution videos and generally graphic content is normalizing an increasing level of brutality and thuggishness within the domestic Russian information space.
Russian military command is facing challenges integrating irregular armed formations with conventional forces.
Russian authorities are increasingly undertaking measures to promote self-censorship in Russia under the guise of countering increased information threats resulting from the invasion of Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to publicly stand by the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as his naval infantry continues to suffer catastrophic casualties around Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna.
Russian forces made marginal territorial gains near Bakhmut and continued to conduct ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast front line.
Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked Ukrainian positions in western Zaporizhia Oblast while continuing to fortify their positions in the region.
Russian officials and regime-linked actors continue to exploit assets from captured Ukrainian cities for economic and military benefit.
Posted on 2/14/23 at 6:45 am to StormyMcMan
Airspace over Moldova is closed, local media is saying because unknown recon drones are flying over Moldova.
Posted on 2/14/23 at 6:52 am to TheGasMan
That’s Canadian Journalism. Understated, informed and attempts to figure out the reality of a situation. The Canadians have a habit of pumping out journalists like this. Peter Jennings ABC anchor for years classic example. Oh and Morley Safer from 60 minutes Canadian same with Ali Vesher CNN
This post was edited on 2/14/23 at 6:56 am
Posted on 2/14/23 at 6:57 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 February 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
In the last three days, Wagner Group forces have almost certainly made further small gains around the northern outskirts of the contested Donbas town of Bakhmut, including into the village of Krasna Hora. However, organised Ukrainian defence continues in the area. The tactical Russian advance to the south of the town has likely made little progress.
In the north, in Kremina-Svatove sector of Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are making continuous offensive efforts, though each local attack remains on too small a scale to achieve a significant breakthrough. Russia likely aims to reverse some of the gains Ukrainian forces made over September-November 2022: there is a realistic possibility that their immediate goal is to advance west to the Zherberets River.
Overall, the current operational picture suggests that Russian forces are being given orders to advance in most sectors, but that they have not massed sufficient offensive combat power on any one axis to achieve a decisive effect.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 February 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
In the last three days, Wagner Group forces have almost certainly made further small gains around the northern outskirts of the contested Donbas town of Bakhmut, including into the village of Krasna Hora. However, organised Ukrainian defence continues in the area. The tactical Russian advance to the south of the town has likely made little progress.
In the north, in Kremina-Svatove sector of Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are making continuous offensive efforts, though each local attack remains on too small a scale to achieve a significant breakthrough. Russia likely aims to reverse some of the gains Ukrainian forces made over September-November 2022: there is a realistic possibility that their immediate goal is to advance west to the Zherberets River.
Overall, the current operational picture suggests that Russian forces are being given orders to advance in most sectors, but that they have not massed sufficient offensive combat power on any one axis to achieve a decisive effect.
Posted on 2/14/23 at 7:06 am to cypher
quote:
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 February 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
In the last three days, Wagner Group forces have almost certainly made further small gains around the northern outskirts of the contested Donbas town of Bakhmut, including into the village of Krasna Hora. However, organised Ukrainian defence continues in the area. The tactical Russian advance to the south of the town has likely made little progress.
In the north, in Kremina-Svatove sector of Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are making continuous offensive efforts, though each local attack remains on too small a scale to achieve a significant breakthrough. Russia likely aims to reverse some of the gains Ukrainian forces made over September-November 2022: there is a realistic possibility that their immediate goal is to advance west to the Zherberets River.
Overall, the current operational picture suggests that Russian forces are being given orders to advance in most sectors, but that they have not massed sufficient offensive combat power on any one axis to achieve a decisive effect.
Stalemate
Posted on 2/14/23 at 8:18 am to Darth_Vader
Some other highlights I saw this morning.
* Norway's intelligence services are saying the Russian Navy is deploying tactical nuclear weapons onboard ships in the Baltic for the first time in 30 years.
Getting back to Moldova as well:
According to the Moldovan security services Serbs were to be apart of the group that would led the coup attempt. Also worth noting the Russian aligned opposition party is calling for protests this weekend.
* Norway's intelligence services are saying the Russian Navy is deploying tactical nuclear weapons onboard ships in the Baltic for the first time in 30 years.
Getting back to Moldova as well:
According to the Moldovan security services Serbs were to be apart of the group that would led the coup attempt. Also worth noting the Russian aligned opposition party is calling for protests this weekend.
This post was edited on 2/14/23 at 8:22 am
Posted on 2/14/23 at 8:34 am to Obtuse1
quote:
BTW I wanna give thanks to the guys that are still putting work in on this thread.
ditto
Posted on 2/14/23 at 9:28 am to OutsideObserver
Here's some frontline footage from a combat correspondent who is embedded with the Ukrainian army near Bakhmut. It highlights the stagnant trench warfare that is currently progressing in the region.
YouTube
YouTube
Posted on 2/14/23 at 9:35 am to Burhead
quote:
Airspace over Moldova is closed, local media is saying because unknown recon drones are flying over Moldova.
Appears things are heating up here
Posted on 2/14/23 at 9:40 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Yeah, it's beyond their capability because you won't give Ukraine a dozen ATACMS.
Truth. The Biden bros will down vote you for this.
Posted on 2/14/23 at 9:59 am to AU86
Looks like Russia is prepping for action to move south to Crimea.
Posted on 2/14/23 at 10:56 am to DabosDynasty
quote:
A flash drive left behind by fleeing Russian forces in Ukraine contains hundreds of documents which identify key officials involved in handling, and allegedly torturing, civilians in occupied areas.
@cxemu obtained the flash drive and has exclusive details
@RFERL
Posted on 2/14/23 at 11:02 am to RickAstley
quote:
Exclusive: Ex-Russian military bomber engineer seeks asylum at U.S. border, offers military secrets Yahoo News Article Link
Bill Bishop @niubi
quote:
A Russian military bomber engineer drove up to the U.S. Southwest border in late December, asking for asylum and offering to reveal some of Russia’s most closely guarded military secrets, according to an unclassified Customs and Border Protection report obtained by Yahoo News.
The man and his family arrived in an armored SUV and asked to be admitted into the U.S. because he feared persecution for participating in anti-Putin protests in support of Alexei Navalny, an imprisoned Russian dissident. He then told CBP officials that he had information wanted by the U.S. government.
...
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