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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/29/22 at 5:31 pm to nitwit
Posted on 12/29/22 at 5:31 pm to nitwit
quote:
To better understand, what is a “Thunder Run”?
Fast, deep, and relatively narrow penetration into enemy lines, it is a type of reconnaissance in force. If Blitzkrieg is the heavyweight version then Thunder Runs are the middleweight. Thunder Runs unlike Blitzkrieg are expected to outrun their logistical support so they normally take a consolidation period after the attack. During the run you bypass all the areas that would give you any significant resistance and just cover lots of ground and mop up the now encircled pockets of resistance afterward. This is done by the heavier mechanized following forces. They produce lots of chaos within the enemy but as I mentioned it is a gambit because if you fail you get surrounded and cut off yourself. It requires high-quality intel to determine if it is worth the risk and to identify areas to circumvent so as to not get bogged down.
YT video on the use in Ukraine
YT
Military Review's (Journal of the US Army with a .mil domain address) discussion of the 2003 Battle of Baghdad. The discussion of Thunder Runs starts about halfway through the article.
Military Review
This post was edited on 12/29/22 at 5:32 pm
2
Posted on 12/29/22 at 5:36 pm to Obtuse1
Just a minor setback the last few weeks guys. The Ukrainian military from just a few months ago will begin to push back on the evil doer Putin.
We will be victorious in the most important conflict of our lifetime.
Send more money and MRE's to mom's basement.
TUA
We will be victorious in the most important conflict of our lifetime.
Send more money and MRE's to mom's basement.
TUA
Posted on 12/29/22 at 5:57 pm to Errerrerrwere
quote:
Just a minor setback the last few weeks guys. The Ukrainian military from just a few months ago will begin to push back on the evil doer Putin.
I understand that you are trying to troll somehow, but this doesn't even make any sense There's been very little to happen in the last few weeks except slow, gradual progress for Ukraine in Luhansk Oblast. Oh, and thousands of Russian soldiers have died in failed kamikaze attacks on Bakhmut.
Seriously, what minor setback are you talking about?
Posted on 12/29/22 at 6:04 pm to GOP_Tiger
Probably read some complete bullshite on truth social or whatever and assumed it was true and would be talked about here
Posted on 12/29/22 at 9:03 pm to Highthoughts
isw update
quote:
Russian forces conducted another massive series of missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure on December 29. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched 69 cruise missiles and 23 drones at Ukraine and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 54 of the missiles and at least 11 of the drones.[1] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck targets, primarily infrastructure facilities, in Lviv, Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, and Donetsk oblasts causing widespread disruptions to energy, heating, and water supplies.
quote:
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) responded to ongoing Western assessments that it has severely depleted its stock of high-precision weapons systems amidst the massive strike against Ukraine by stating that it would never run out of Kalibr missiles
quote:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated on December 29 Russia’s unwillingness to commit to genuine negotiations and to recognize Ukraine as an independent actor in negotiations. Lavrov stated in an interview with a prominent Russian news source that Russia will not accept Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s proposed peace plan and that the Kremlin will not talk to any Ukrainian negotiators under conditions that include the withdrawal of Russian troops from occupied Ukraine, Russian payment of reparations, and Russian participation in international tribunals.[10] Lavrov declared that he cannot determine whether an “adequate,” independent politician remains in Kyiv with whom Russia can negotiate.[11] Lavrov claimed that Zelensky’s refusal to pursue negotiations with Russia in April demonstrated the complete “lack of independence of [Zelensky] in making important decisions” and the manipulation of the West to continue hostilities.[12] Lavrov questioned whether an ”acceptable” politician would emerge under the "Kyiv regime,” apparently restating the Kremlin’s position that Zelensky is not a legitimate political leader or acceptable negotiating partner and recommitting Russia to its maximalist goal to drive regime change in Ukraine
quote:
Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated that fighting in Ukraine is in a deadlock on December 29.[14] In an interview with BBC, Budanov stated that “the situation is just stuck” and that both Russian and Ukrainian troops lack the resources or ability to move forward.[15] Budanov stressed that Ukraine cannot defeat Russian troops "in all directions comprehensively” and reiterated that Ukraine is awaiting the supply of new and more advanced weapons systems.[
quote:
The Kremlin continues to manipulate Russian law to grant the state increasingly broad powers using vague language in order to eliminate dissent and threaten Ukrainian sympathizers. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a supplement to the Russian Criminal Code on December 29 that allows Russian authorities to sentence Russians to up to life imprisonment for “assistance to subversive activities” or for “undergoing training for the purpose of carrying out sabotage activities” and for “organizing a sabotage community” and between 5- and 10-years imprisonment for “participation in such a community.”[19] Putin also signed a law enabling Russian authorities to sentence any private citizen who "desecrates” the ribbon of Saint George (a prominent Russian military symbol especially associated with the war in Ukraine) with up to 3 years imprisonment or a fine of up to three million rubles (40,541 USD).
quote:
Repeated Ukrainian strikes on legitimate military targets far in the Russian rear demonstrate the ineffectiveness of Russian air defenses against drones. Ukrainian forces attacked Engels Airbase with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) on December 29, within three days of reports that air defense shot down a Ukrainian UAV over Engels and killed three Russian servicemen.[22] The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated on December 29 that it is “increasingly clear” that Russia “is struggling to counter air threats deep inside [its territory].”[23] The United Kingdom MoD assessed that Russian air defenses probably are struggling to meet the high demand for air defense for field headquarters near the front line in Ukraine while also protecting strategic sites, such as Engels Airbase.[24] The repeated strikes on Engels Airbase will likely exacerbate milblogger critiques that Russia cannot defend its own territory from Ukrainian strikes. A prominent Russian milblogger questioned how Ukrainian UAVs and missiles cross such distances and enter Russian territory with “such impunity” and questioned the honesty of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s response.[25] The milblogger joked that an undetected pilot landing in Red Square (referencing Matias Rust’s 1987 flight from Helsinki to Moscow) would certainly generate a response longer than a single sentence from the Russian government
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian forces conducted another massive series of missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Russia’s unwillingness to commit to genuine negotiations with Ukraine.
Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated that fighting in Ukraine is in a deadlock.
The Kremlin continues to manipulate Russian law to grant the state increasingly broad powers under ambiguous conditions in order to eliminate dissent.
Repeated Ukrainian strikes on legitimate military targets in rear areas in the Russian Federation demonstrate the ineffectiveness of Russian air defenses against drones and exacerbate critiques that Russia cannot defend its own territory.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna while Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka area as well as around Bakhmut, where the potential culmination of the Russian offensive is likely being expedited.
Russian forces continued to conduct defensive operations in Kherson Oblast.
The Kremlin’s mobilization working group met for the first time on December 29. The forum for criticism of mobilization implementation will likely create friction with the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Russian occupation authorities continue to intensify law enforcement crackdowns in unsuccessful attempts to stamp out partisan pressure in occupied territories.
Posted on 12/29/22 at 10:01 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Fast, deep, and relatively narrow penetration
My specialty!
Posted on 12/29/22 at 10:20 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I recognize, though, that for many in the general public, any big, heavy thing made of metal is a "tank."
The average fricking moron citizen thinks an armored vehicle with no weapons is a tank.
Posted on 12/29/22 at 11:30 pm to TigersSEC2010
quote:
The average fricking moron citizen thinks an armored vehicle with no weapons is a tank.
Just like they think that crude oil is just crude oil and doesn't matter the grade or assay (chemistry). We export a lot of that tight shale production because refineries here don't want it.
Posted on 12/30/22 at 12:07 am to GOP_Tiger
I say give them all the Bradleys they need. We have enough of them in storage that sending a couple hundred would actually be a net positive for the military budget and with production on the new light tank now in production by General Dynamics that platform will take on a lot of the duties that the Bradley was tasked with. We are on a timeline to have over 500 of the new light tanks by 2035 in active service. The Bradley has always been looked at as an albatross of sorts in that it was designed to do so many things that it doesn’t do any of them really well but they do a variety of weapons packages on them that would ideal for Ukraine’s preferred fast attack method.
Posted on 12/30/22 at 7:11 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 30 December 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Lieutenant General Yevgeniy Nikiforov is likely in the process of taking over command of Russia's Western Group of Forces (WGF) in Ukraine. He would be at least the fourth commander of the formation since the invasion, and replaces Colonel General Sergei Kuzovlev, who was appointed just three months ago.
As the Chief of Staff of Russia's Eastern Group of Forces (EGF) during the early weeks of the invasion, Nikiforov would have been heavily involved in planning the disastrous attempt by EGF and airborne forces to advance on Kyiv from the north-west, via the Chernobyl area.
WGF is almost certainly currently tasked with holding Russia's right flank, the area of Luhansk Oblast around Kremina and Svatove. As either side could plausibly attempt an offensive in this sector, Nikiforov assumes an important operational role in the conflict. The continued churn of senior Russian officers probably reflects internal divisions regarding the Russian Ministry of Defence's future conduct of the war.
This post was edited on 12/30/22 at 7:11 am
Posted on 12/30/22 at 8:38 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
I say give them all the Bradleys they need. We have enough of them in storage that sending a couple hundred would actually be a net positive for the military budget and with production on the new light tank now in production by General Dynamics that platform will take on a lot of the duties that the Bradley was tasked with. We are on a timeline to have over 500 of the new light tanks by 2035 in active service. The Bradley has always been looked at as an albatross of sorts in that it was designed to do so many things that it doesn’t do any of them really well but they do a variety of weapons packages on them that would ideal for Ukraine’s preferred fast attack method.
If history is any guide, we will probably start by giving them 50 or so, so that we can "train the trainers." They will then get a lot more over the next several months.
President Biden signed the omnibus bill yesterday, and while there's $45 billion for Ukraine in that bill, only about $11 billion is for direct military assistance for Ukraine (though there is also still several billion left over from previous authorizations).
If we gave Ukraine 300 BFVs, that would be about $1 billion (the same cost as the one Patriot battery that we are sending), so 300 Bradleys is not a huge chunk of that money.
In my opinion, the decision to leak that we are "considering" sending BFVs is to alert others in NATO, especially Germany, so that NATO can make a united decision to send modern heavy armor to Ukraine.
Bradleys will be great for Ukraine. BFVs with TOW missile systems should be highly efficient killers of Russian tanks. But Ukraine also really needs Leopard 2 tanks, and Germany has resisted sending them to this point, with Scholz saying that NATO needs to make a unified decision.
But polls show that a significant majority of Germans favor sending them, including a majority in Chancellor Scholz's own party. In fact, the leader of the primary opposition party just came out in favor of sending them. And lots of NATO countries have Leopards that they will want to send, so it'll be easy for NATO to collectively send 200 or so.
And that will also mean that other NATO armored vehicles (such as Marders, Challengers, and Leclercs) could also be sent to Ukraine.
So, it's all coming. NATO is systematically turning Ukraine into a modern NATO military power. First, it was ATGMs, then artillery, then lightly armored vehicles such as MRAPs and Humvees, then air defense, and now heavy armor. (Aviation would be next, maybe by the summer.)
And, of course, this means setting up new logistics for ammo and parts (BFVs break down a lot), training mechanics as well as operators, etc. It'll be a big operation.
But it will also give Ukraine a substantial edge over Russia for a decisive spring offensive.
Posted on 12/30/22 at 9:51 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 12/30/22 at 10:05 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
The Bradley has always been looked at as an albatross of sorts in that it was designed to do so many things that it doesn’t do any of them really well but they do a variety of weapons packages on them that would ideal for Ukraine’s preferred fast attack method.
It was a replacement for the 113 but came along at a time when we really didnt have a need for the capability. But man it is perfect for the current war, I mean perfect. And you are right it can be configured with all manner of nasty things.
I would give the Ukrainians a couple of Stryker vehicles just to see how they perform in that environment. The grown ups are in love with wheeled vehicles at the moment.
Posted on 12/30/22 at 10:47 am to Lakeboy7
Perun kneecaps those saying that artillery ammo has run out.
Heck, we have over 93,000 tons of 155mm cluster munitions scheduled for disposal. Let's save taxpayer money by disposing of it on Russian positions. That is near the end of his deep dive in consumption and manufacturing capabilities
Heck, we have over 93,000 tons of 155mm cluster munitions scheduled for disposal. Let's save taxpayer money by disposing of it on Russian positions. That is near the end of his deep dive in consumption and manufacturing capabilities
quote:
LINK
Posted on 12/30/22 at 11:29 am to CitizenK
Ha. I was just about to post about Perun's video, and you beat me to it. It's a good listen. Bullet points:
- The high-end estimate for Russian shell production (of all types) is 1.7 million last year, scaling up to 3.4 million this year.
- At it's peak this past summer during its capture of some of the Donbas, Russia was using some 60,000 shells per day.
- Though they are using less now, 3.4 million shells per year works out to ~9000 per day, which means that Russia likely cannot continue to fight the way that it has been fighting. It's not going to run out of shells, but it might have to scale back significantly.
- Of course, it's unknown how many shells Russia might be able to buy from North Korea.
________________________________________________
- Ukraine has been averaging something like 7000 artillery shells per day. That's about 2.5 million per year.
- The US only produced about 100,000 shells last year, which is why so many people have been alarmed. Production is still increasing, but that's still probably only going to be 200,000 shells in 2023.
- A lot of these shells, however, will be Excalibur shells.
- European factories actually have a lot of capacity, because a lot of what they have traditionally made is for export. For example, he points out that Spanish plants have only been operating at half capacity. Perun uses estimates that Europe can produce 300,000 shells in 2023.
- But that still leaves Ukraine woefully short, right? Not so fast. Perun points out that there are lots of other nations, especially in the Asia/Pacific, that are broadly aligned with NATO.
- His own Australia, for example, just opened a brand new plant that's going to make 100,000 shells per year, and the old plant still makes the same amount.
- South Korea is the really big deal, because South Korea has over four thousand 155mm guns, because their entire war planning is based on an artillery war (in contrast to NATO, which expects a lot of power to come from the air).
- South Korea has a huge stockpile of 155mm ammo -- somewhere between 4 and 11 million shells, and their manufacturing capacity is also very high.
- The US can likely buy a lot more ammo from South Korea to replenish its own stocks, even as we send US-manufactured ammo to Ukraine.
- Other significant producers of 155mm shells include South Africa, Singapore, Pakistan, and Israel.
- This means that much of the ammo question is political, rather than industrial.
- The West has more money and can outbid Russia for countries that are willing to supply to both
- There's a reason that NATO countries gave Ukraine a lot of 105mm guns, and that's that NATO has lots of ammo for those guns.
- We can still buy lots of 152mm from former Warsaw Bloc countries that still make them.
- Precision weapons can make up for lower quantity. From JDAMs, GLSDBs, etc.
- What CitizenK says about cluster shells.
- There's other stuff like 120mm mortars, etc. -- lots of substitutes.
- The high-end estimate for Russian shell production (of all types) is 1.7 million last year, scaling up to 3.4 million this year.
- At it's peak this past summer during its capture of some of the Donbas, Russia was using some 60,000 shells per day.
- Though they are using less now, 3.4 million shells per year works out to ~9000 per day, which means that Russia likely cannot continue to fight the way that it has been fighting. It's not going to run out of shells, but it might have to scale back significantly.
- Of course, it's unknown how many shells Russia might be able to buy from North Korea.
________________________________________________
- Ukraine has been averaging something like 7000 artillery shells per day. That's about 2.5 million per year.
- The US only produced about 100,000 shells last year, which is why so many people have been alarmed. Production is still increasing, but that's still probably only going to be 200,000 shells in 2023.
- A lot of these shells, however, will be Excalibur shells.
- European factories actually have a lot of capacity, because a lot of what they have traditionally made is for export. For example, he points out that Spanish plants have only been operating at half capacity. Perun uses estimates that Europe can produce 300,000 shells in 2023.
- But that still leaves Ukraine woefully short, right? Not so fast. Perun points out that there are lots of other nations, especially in the Asia/Pacific, that are broadly aligned with NATO.
- His own Australia, for example, just opened a brand new plant that's going to make 100,000 shells per year, and the old plant still makes the same amount.
- South Korea is the really big deal, because South Korea has over four thousand 155mm guns, because their entire war planning is based on an artillery war (in contrast to NATO, which expects a lot of power to come from the air).
- South Korea has a huge stockpile of 155mm ammo -- somewhere between 4 and 11 million shells, and their manufacturing capacity is also very high.
- The US can likely buy a lot more ammo from South Korea to replenish its own stocks, even as we send US-manufactured ammo to Ukraine.
- Other significant producers of 155mm shells include South Africa, Singapore, Pakistan, and Israel.
- This means that much of the ammo question is political, rather than industrial.
- The West has more money and can outbid Russia for countries that are willing to supply to both
- There's a reason that NATO countries gave Ukraine a lot of 105mm guns, and that's that NATO has lots of ammo for those guns.
- We can still buy lots of 152mm from former Warsaw Bloc countries that still make them.
- Precision weapons can make up for lower quantity. From JDAMs, GLSDBs, etc.
- What CitizenK says about cluster shells.
- There's other stuff like 120mm mortars, etc. -- lots of substitutes.
This post was edited on 12/30/22 at 11:30 am
Posted on 12/30/22 at 12:47 pm to GOP_Tiger
Really the solution is South Korea. There needs to be a deal struck that allows us to buy a large quantity of their 155 mm munitions and if they don’t want them going to Ukraine then you use the South Korean shells to restock our own and other friendly countries that have contributed their own stocks of ammunition while shells being produced in these countries as well as our own goes to Ukraine. It’s just a work around so South Korea can still maintain they aren’t sending offensive weapons to Ukraine. I’m not nearly as worried about NATO caliber munitions since Ukraine still has more Soviet caliber artillery of 152 and 122 mm than they do 155 mm guns. Any factories that still produce those caliber shells needs to be given a multi year contract that guarantees the purchase of the munitions so they can increase production which costs more money to do. With all things in life it comes down to money. This is a good thing though because as you said Russia can’t get in a spending war with the United States. We can thank Ronald Reagan for proving that they can’t compete in a spending contest. Ramping up production takes time though so until they can retool the plants to up production there needs to be serious scavenging of old Soviet bloc countries and Africa for the ammunition to keep Ukraine’s older guns in action.
Posted on 12/30/22 at 3:10 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
keep Ukraine’s older guns in action.
As tubes wear out and any stockpile of replacement tubes gets low, the switch to NATO style will be all but complete
Posted on 12/30/22 at 3:45 pm to CitizenK
quote:
As tubes wear out and any stockpile of replacement tubes gets low, the switch to NATO style will be all but complete
It's likely that our NATO allies in Eastern Europe have some spares, but the problem with tubes and the problem with ammo means that Ukraine likely does not want to "keep them in action."
The best use for these weapons is as 2nd-line or reserve. Some of them can now be deployed, for example, with the forces in along the border with Belarus. All the Russian troops in Belarus right now means that Ukraine needs a deterrent force there, but guns deployed there will not be firing any shells at the moment.
Posted on 12/30/22 at 4:07 pm to GOP_Tiger
The part that is interesting is that Russia will be limited from its normal artillery heavy military doctrine. They will not run out but cannot keep up the pace.
Posted on 12/30/22 at 4:17 pm to RLDSC FAN
Ukrainian army liberates village in Luhansk Oblast in coordinated assault operation
by The Kyiv Independent news desk
December 31, 2022 12:07 am
The village of Novosilske was liberated from Russia in a coordinated Ukrainian assault operation, Luhansk Oblast military administration announced on Dec. 30.
A joint force consisting of the Kraken Special Unit and the 92th Separate Mechanized Brigade conducted a “fiery raid on the occupied village”, with numerous Russian troops taken captive.
“The village is controlled by the Ukrainian army,” the report read.
Novosilske lies 18 kilometers northwest of the key strategic town of Svatove, the focal point of Russia's defense of occupied Luhansk Oblast along with the town of Kreminna further south.
Since Ukrainian reached the administrative border of the oblast in early October, further progress has been much slower as Russia developed an entrenched defensive posture.
According to Serhiy Haidai, head of the Luhansk regional state administration, 13 settlements in Luhansk Oblast have been liberated as of Dec.14.
Over December, Haidai made several claims that Ukrainian forces were closing in on Kreminna, but these are yet to be independently verified.
by The Kyiv Independent news desk
December 31, 2022 12:07 am
The village of Novosilske was liberated from Russia in a coordinated Ukrainian assault operation, Luhansk Oblast military administration announced on Dec. 30.
A joint force consisting of the Kraken Special Unit and the 92th Separate Mechanized Brigade conducted a “fiery raid on the occupied village”, with numerous Russian troops taken captive.
“The village is controlled by the Ukrainian army,” the report read.
Novosilske lies 18 kilometers northwest of the key strategic town of Svatove, the focal point of Russia's defense of occupied Luhansk Oblast along with the town of Kreminna further south.
Since Ukrainian reached the administrative border of the oblast in early October, further progress has been much slower as Russia developed an entrenched defensive posture.
According to Serhiy Haidai, head of the Luhansk regional state administration, 13 settlements in Luhansk Oblast have been liberated as of Dec.14.
Over December, Haidai made several claims that Ukrainian forces were closing in on Kreminna, but these are yet to be independently verified.
This post was edited on 12/30/22 at 4:17 pm
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