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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/13/22 at 4:04 pm to ned nederlander
Posted on 12/13/22 at 4:04 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
I would love to be a fly on the wall to know what is really driving this apparent shift.
As far as the Patriot system goes, my first thought is that the intel that Iran may provide ballistic missiles to russia triggered the decision. I don't think ,from what I've read, any of the existing Ukrainian defenses are very effective against those.
1
Posted on 12/13/22 at 4:28 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
There's a de escalation faction in the Biden administration led by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Apparently his influence has waned.
The State Dept is made up of very smart, very liberal people. I'm sure they believe a solution can be achieved without destroying the Russian military. They are incorrect.
But even as back channel discussions were going on, The Russians kept hitting infrastructure. So the plan of reaching equilibrium on the battlefield has shifted to arming the Ukrainians with an eye toward them pushing the Russians out of Ukraine proper and including hitting targets inside Russia.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 4:52 pm to cypher
This is what I suspect is driving it.
It will be a good chance to test the patriot in a wartime environment against swarms of ballistic missiles.
It will be a good chance to test the patriot in a wartime environment against swarms of ballistic missiles.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 6:40 pm to Kentucker
Is it possible to construct an Iron Dome over all of Ukraine? At least over its cities? Yeah, Ukraine is 29 times larger than Israel (thanks mapfight.com), but you wouldn’t need to cover miles and miles of countryside.
If you accept that it is inevitable that the Ukrainian armed forces will push the Russian army out of their territory (save possibly Crimea), could they essentially get back to normalcy with a lockdown air defense? I think it could happen.
If you accept that it is inevitable that the Ukrainian armed forces will push the Russian army out of their territory (save possibly Crimea), could they essentially get back to normalcy with a lockdown air defense? I think it could happen.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 7:44 pm to Slippy
Israel won’t export iron dome technology
Posted on 12/13/22 at 8:04 pm to jeffsdad
Israel is the the only nation state with that technology.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 8:38 pm to Slippy
Iron dome is for lots of little missiles. Perfect for defending against drones.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 8:46 pm to jeffsdad
isw update
quote:
Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine despite a snap Belarusian military readiness check on December 13. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko ordered a snap comprehensive readiness check of the Belarusian military on December 13. The exercise does not appear to be cover for concentrating Belarusian and/or Russian forces near jumping-off positions for an invasion of Ukraine. It involves Belarusian elements deploying to training grounds across Belarus, conducting engineering tasks, and practicing crossing the Neman and Berezina rivers (which are over 170 km and 70 km away from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, respectively).
quote:
Ukrainian officials continue to assess that Belarus is unlikely to attack Ukraine as of December 13. The Ukrainian General Staff reiterated on December 13 that the situation in northern Ukraine near Belarus has not significantly changed and that Ukrainian authorities still have not detected Russian forces forming strike groups in Belarus
quote:
Russian milbloggers accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of engaging in performative "excessive reporting" instead of addressing systemic issues with the Russian military and Russian operations in Ukraine. A prominent Russian milblogger discussed the "vicious practice of photo reports" in the Russian military and noted that Russian soldiers are often made to dress in statutory uniforms and appear on camera to propagate a sense of preparedness and professionalism instead of actually preparing for combat missions.[10] The milblogger emphasized that such demonstrations are purely theatrical and create a false sense of coherency in the Russian Armed Forces without actually addressing substantive issues with logistics, communications, and basic provision of units.
quote:
Senior Israeli officials stated that Iran seeks to limit the range of missiles it plans to provide Russia. Axios reported on December 12 that Iran fears international backlash from providing Russia with long range missiles to use in the war in Ukraine and noted that United Nations (UN) Security Council Resolution 2231 passed in 2015 prevents the transfer or receipt of Iranian ballistic missiles with a range over 300 kilometers and a payload over 500 kilograms until October 2023.[14] Axios noted that violating this resolution could result in a "snapback" mechanism that reimposes UN sanctions against Iran
quote:
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces are striking Ukraine with missiles that Ukraine transferred to Russian in the 1990s as part of an international agreement that Russia explicitly violated by invading Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.
quote:
US officials stated on December 13 that the Pentagon is finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine.
quote:
Russia continues to use concepts of terrorism as a legal framework for domestic repression. Independent Russian outlet Meduza noted on December 13 that Russia has been expanding the concept of terrorism under Russian legislation over the course of the last two decades, and as recently as December of this year the State Duma proposed new amendments to the Russian Criminal Code that equate sabotage with an act of terrorism.[20] Meduza amplified an investigation by another independent Russian outlet, Novaya Gazeta, that noted that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has transitioned from focusing on defining Islamist militant activity in the Caucasus as terrorism to orienting terrorism around the concept of Ukrainian "saboteurs."[21] FSB Head Alexander Bortnikov relatedly claimed on December 13 that there has been an increase in "terrorist" activity within Russia in 2022, which he related to Ukrainian Security Services (SBU) supposedly operating with Western support.
quote:
Key Takeaways
Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine despite a snap Belarusian military readiness check on December 13.
Ukrainian officials continue to assess that Belarus is unlikely to attack Ukraine as of December 13.
Senior Israeli officials stated that Iran seeks to limit the range of missiles it plans to provide to Russia in order to avoid triggering UN "snapback" sanctions.
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces are striking Ukraine with missiles that Ukraine transferred to Russia in the 1990s as part of an international agreement by which Russia recognized Crimea and all of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts as part of Ukraine and committed not to threaten or attack Ukraine.
US officials stated on December 13 that the Pentagon is finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine.
Russia continues to use concepts of terrorism as a legal framework for domestic repression.
Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks near Svatove and Kreminna.
Russian forces made marginal advances within Bakhmut and continued ground assaults near Avdiivka and Vuhledar.
Russian forces may be withdrawing from certain areas south of the Dnipro River as they continue fortifying rear positions in occupied Kherson Oblast.
Likely Ukrainian actors downed a bridge in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast amid increased reports of Ukrainian strikes against Russian military assets near Melitopol within the past few days.
The Wagner Group is continuing efforts to use recruits from Russian prisoners to generate combat power.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 7:16 am to StormyMcMan
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 December 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
On 06 December 2022, Igor Girkin, a well-known Russian nationalist and former military intelligence officer, claimed he had spent two months embedded with a Donetsk People's Republic battalion on the front line. He said his recent experiences had revealed a 'crisis of strategic planning' in Russia's Ukraine operation.
Since his deployment, Girkin has also derided the Russian military's current emphasis upon constructing extensive, positional defensive works, questioning their utility in modern warfare. His comments highlight the fraught debate about the conduct of the war which continues within Russia's security community.
Rumours circulating on social media within the last 48 hours suggesting that Russian Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov could have been fired cannot be verified. However, factional tensions likely extend to the top of Russia's military hierarchy.
This post was edited on 12/14/22 at 7:17 am
Posted on 12/14/22 at 7:29 am to CitizenK
quote:
Iron dome is for lots of little missiles. Perfect for defending against drones.
The problem is that you are spending $100k to $150k to try to shoot down a $20k drone. Gepard is much more cost effective. I wonder how many more can be found for Ukraine? Germany is sending 7 more and I've read that Romania has 40 in working order.
Of course the economics of drones getting through is probably even worse than using Iron Dome. The good news is that the economy of NATO is an order of magnitude larger than Russia's.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 8:26 am to Tigris
Germany has hundreds of Gepards in storage that could easily be pulled out and sent it’s just about brokering a deal for them. The problem isn’t as much the actual Gepard as it is getting the ammunition for it which if I’m not mistaken is Swiss made and getting the Swiss to contribute any kind of weaponry is like hitting your head against a brick wall. I’m not sure if there’s another source where the ammo can be obtained but you’d think the Germans would have other suppliers.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 8:52 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
Germany has hundreds of Gepards in storage that could easily be pulled out and sent it’s just about brokering a deal for them. The problem isn’t as much the actual Gepard as it is getting the ammunition for it which if I’m not mistaken is Swiss made and getting the Swiss to contribute any kind of weaponry is like hitting your head against a brick wall. I’m not sure if there’s another source where the ammo can be obtained but you’d think the Germans would have other suppliers.
The Swiss won't let the Germans do anything
Switzerland refuses to budge on German ammunition request Nov 3rd
Swiss veto German request to re-export tank ammunition to Ukraine April 26
As Swiss block ammo transfer for Ukraine, tensions with Germany grow Nov 9
quote:
At the heart of the dispute is Germany’s desire to send 12,400 35mm rounds (manufactured by Oerlikon-Bührle, a Swiss company which no longer exists) to Ukraine, bought decades ago to restock the Gepard air defense tanks, also known as “Cheetah” flak guns. The Gepards themselves were gifted to Ukraine by the German army, which no longer uses them, and the Ukrainians have found them very effective against Russian cruise missiles and the slow Iranian drones that have been battering Ukrainian civilian targets this fall. However, ammunition is in short supply, and Berlin had hoped to ship the rounds to Kyiv without objection.
The original sales contract for the Swiss-made munitions specified that if Berlin wanted to re-sell or donate these munitions, it needed to obtain a license from Switzerland — and there is a law on the books in Switzerland that forbids defense equipment from being re-exported to conflict zones. As a result, in June, Switzerland turned down Germany’s request. The same reason was invoked in June to refuse a Danish request to send 22 Swiss-made Piranha III tanks to Ukraine.
Guy Parmelin, Swiss minister of the economy, wrote to Lambrecht that “there is still no reason to respond favorably to Germany’s request to transfer Swiss war material to Ukraine.” He noted that “equal treatment arising from the law of neutrality does not allow Switzerland to approve a request for the export of war material from Switzerland to Ukraine as long as this country is involved in an international armed conflict.” Parmelin added that “the criteria for authorisation as laid out in Swiss legislation regarding war material also excludes the delivery of war material to countries involved in such conflicts.”
ETA: I understand trying to be diplomatic, but seeing as that company no longer exists what is Switzerland gonna do? Sue Germany? Go to Ukraine and take back their ammo?
This post was edited on 12/14/22 at 8:54 am
Posted on 12/14/22 at 8:55 am to LSUPilot07
Good point about the ammunition. From an April story:
LINK
So the Swiss are willing to take part in the sanctions, but not manufacture ammunition for Germany that may be sent to Ukraine? And it's a German owned plant that manufactures? Sounds like a good opportunity for more German jobs by relocating that plant. This is the same Switzerland that had German owned weapons factories going full tilt during WWII with the weapons being sent to Hitler. And the same Switzerland that treated our shot down airmen worse than Germany did (well, yeah, some bombs did fall on Switzerland accidentally. Bombing was so imprecise that we couldn't be sure of hitting the right country.).
quote:
The Swiss government has confirmed that it vetoed the re-export of Swiss-made ammunition used in Gepard anti-aircraft tanks that Germany plans to send to Ukraine. Switzerland has cited its policy of neutrality, which forbids it from sending war materiel to conflict zones.
LINK
So the Swiss are willing to take part in the sanctions, but not manufacture ammunition for Germany that may be sent to Ukraine? And it's a German owned plant that manufactures? Sounds like a good opportunity for more German jobs by relocating that plant. This is the same Switzerland that had German owned weapons factories going full tilt during WWII with the weapons being sent to Hitler. And the same Switzerland that treated our shot down airmen worse than Germany did (well, yeah, some bombs did fall on Switzerland accidentally. Bombing was so imprecise that we couldn't be sure of hitting the right country.).
Posted on 12/14/22 at 9:00 am to Lakeboy7
quote:Important to note here that “smart” =/= wise.
The State Dept is made up of very smart, very liberal people.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 9:28 am to Tigris
They don’t look like complicated shells. How long would it take to tool up to manufacture these?
Apparently Brazil can also make them.
Apparently Brazil can also make them.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 9:33 am to soccerfüt
The forecasts I've seen for December, above normal temps in Ukraine though Europe goes through colder than normal through the first of the year.
Pinsk Marshes in Southern Belorus and the Ukrainian territory there negate any large scale invasion. Germany avoided the marshes in WWII except in retreat, where only wagons and carts to transit the marshes on tracks from cutting down trees.
Pinsk Marshes in Southern Belorus and the Ukrainian territory there negate any large scale invasion. Germany avoided the marshes in WWII except in retreat, where only wagons and carts to transit the marshes on tracks from cutting down trees.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 9:44 am to CitizenK
When are all the food riots and general societal breakdown going to occur? OML hasn't been around lately to move his goalposts.
This post was edited on 12/14/22 at 9:45 am
Posted on 12/14/22 at 10:20 am to Chromdome35
quote:
When are all the food riots and general societal breakdown going to occur? OML hasn't been around lately to move his goalposts.
He will now say wait until February. He meant February all along and we were just confused
Posted on 12/14/22 at 10:25 am to StormyMcMan
You can always count on the Swiss to have their noses stuck so far up in the air they can smell a fart from 1,000 miles away. Their neutrality bullshite is a little tired as they use it when they feel like it and then other times find ways to bypass it when they can make money.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 11:10 am to LSUPilot07
Solovyov going hard at Girkin (referred to by his nickname "Strelkov" here) for apparently not actually going to the front, the first likely effective rhetoric to knock him down a peg from a Putin mouthpiece:
LINK
LINK
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