re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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In the spirit of the season Ukrainian soldiers send a present down the chimney

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That precision is unreal. BTW, several posters in the comments state that it's likely a Russian drone. I'm not even going to pretend to have a clue.

It's all hard goods, ammo and weapons, barely any cash, regardless what is batted about in Politardville

ISW Update

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Russian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses against ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives near the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border and support limited offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast...ISW has previously observed WMD elements operating throughout Kharkiv Oblast prior to the sweeping Ukrainian counteroffensives in September that ultimately drove Russian troops back to the current line along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border...Wagner Group fighters, supported by elements of the 1st and 2nd Army Corps, are largely responsible for driving offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around Bakhmut and the western outskirts of Donetsk City

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The cost of the Russian war in Ukraine will likely continue to undermine Russian President Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical campaigns worldwide..Putin is seemingly still unwilling to sacrifice his geopolitical initiatives in the short-term, however, and risks facing a financial predicament in which he will not be able to balance maximalist goals in Ukraine with his global power projection campaigns.

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The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially denied rumors that Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov has been or soon will be replaced, although it stopped short of offering the kind of credible support for this denial that it has provided to demonstrate that Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu is still on the job.

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Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated that Ukraine intends to continue counteroffensives in winter 2022–2023 after the hard freeze enables maneuver warfare, supporting an ISW assessment.[24]

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Senior US government officials may be correcting their assessments about Ukraine’s ability and intent to conduct counteroffensive operations this winter.

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The UK MoD assessed that Russia still likely aims to retain control over all its occupied Ukrainian territory, supporting ISW’s recent assessment that the Kremlin likely maintains its maximalist objectives in Ukraine.[30]

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Key Takeaways

Russian forces are continuing to shape and consolidate their force composition in eastern Ukraine to bolster defenses against ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives near the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border and support limited offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast.

The cost of the Russian war in Ukraine will likely continue to undermine Russian President Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical campaigns worldwide.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially denied rumors that Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov has been or soon will be replaced, although it stopped short of offering the kind of credible support for this denial that it has provided that Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu is still on the job.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated that Ukraine intends to continue counteroffensives in winter 2022–2023 after the hard freeze enables maneuver warfare, supporting an ISW assessment.

Senior US government officials may be correcting their assessments about Ukraine’s ability and intent to conduct counteroffensive operations this winter.

Russian forces continued limited ground attacks near Svatove and Kreminna as Ukrainian forces struck rear areas in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka–Donetsk City areas and conducted defensive operations southwest of Donetsk City.

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian military assets and logistics hubs along critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in southern Ukraine.

Russian forces are fortifying the northern beaches of Crimea along the Black Sea coast.

Russian forces may lack sufficient infrastructure to support their troops in Crimea.

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British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
13 December 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

On 12 December 2022, the Kremlin confirmed that President Vladimir Putin will not hold his traditional end-of-year press conference. This will be the first time in 10 years that Putin has not held the annual event, while the usual public phone-in also did not take place this year.

The press conference has become a significant fixture in Putin's calendar of public engagement and has frequently been used as an opportunity to demonstrate the supposed integrity of Putin.

Although questions are almost certainly usually vetted in advance, the cancellation is likely due to increasing concerns about the prevalence of anti-war feeling in Russia. Kremlin officials are almost certainly extremely sensitive about the possibility that any event attended by Putin could be hijacked by unsanctioned discussion about the 'special military operation'.

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It seems like a major "escalation" from NATO is imminent

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I thought about this some more overnight. For us in the US, the war in Ukraine now has little effect on our daily lives. Gas prices have stabilized and dropped back down, and there's little ongoing disruption to our commercial or business interests.

This is simply not true in Europe. Europeans are caring for millions of refugees. They have stabilized energy supplies, but at an unsustainable long-term cost. European airlines can no longer fly efficiently to Asia, as that would mean crossing into Russian airspace.

For Europe, the prospect that this war would drag on for years is unacceptable. They need Ukraine to go ahead and win it.

Germany, in particular, is finally coming around to that conclusion. All the major political parties with the exception of Scholz's own have now endorsed sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

The only plausible reason that Scholz still delays is that he wants NATO to do this together, so Washington, in particular, needs to be on board. The US needs to commit hundreds of Bradleys at the same time as Germany commits the Leopards. We can send the GBSDB missiles (with a range of an additional 17 miles beyond what HIMARS is firing now) too.

Stuff from other NATO countries can also happen concurrently (e.g. the Slovak planes).

All of this also makes sense from another perspective: if we can't supply Ukraine with enough 155mm ammo to fight the way that it's been fighting, then the logical conclusion is to give Ukraine other weapons that reduce their reliance on 155mm artillery.

If NATO gives Ukraine lots of modern, Western armor, rockets that can strike even further in the Russian rear, and more aircraft, then we can enable Ukraine to win on the battlefield without firing as many 155mm shells.

I guess that could make it somewhat easier...

Color me skeptical because 1) it's the Biden administration and 2) it's the US government.

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Drop in the bucket. Point being that the vast majority it hard goods. Considering there is little revenue for the government. The annual budget for Ukraine is in the $140 billion area pre 2014. That "cash" is bare bones to keep it functioning.

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Drop in the bucket is how we label at least $25 billion in debt spending and counting with new bill (and the bill after that and after that)?

But point is that there is cash being sent to Ukraine, and it needs to be audited and clearly spelled out to American public as spent like the weapons are. The Ukraine govt needs to be answerable on how it’s spent. No hidden transaction fees being pocketed or money made by companies or organizations connected to politicians.

CNN: LINK

US finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine

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The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official.

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Ukraine has been calling for the US to send the advanced long-range air defense system that is highly effective at intercepting ballistic and cruise missiles as it comes under a barrage of Russian missile and drone attacks that have destroyed key infrastructure across the country. It would be the most effective long-range defensive weapons system sent to the country and officials say it will help secure airspace for NATO nations in eastern Europe.

It is not clear how many missile launchers will be sent but a typical Patriot battery includes a radar set that detects and tracks targets, computers, power generating equipment, an engagement control station and up to eight launchers, each holding four ready to fire missiles.

Once the plans are finalized, the Patriots are expected to ship quickly in the coming days and Ukrainians will be trained to use them at a US Army base in Grafenwoehr, Germany, officials said.

Ukraine has been asking for the system for months but the logistical challenges of delivering it and operating it are immense. Despite those obstacles, “the reality of what is going on the ground” led the administration to make the decision, the senior administration official told CNN, noting the continuing intense Russian missile barrages.

Unlike smaller air defense systems, Patriot missile batteries need much larger crews, requiring dozens of personnel to properly operate them. The training for Patriot missile batteries normally takes multiple months, a process the United States will now carry out under the pressure of near-daily aerial attacks from Russia.

The system is widely considered one of the most capable long-range weapons to defend airspace against incoming ballistic and cruise missiles as well as some aircraft. Because of its long-range and high-altitude capability, it can potentially shoot down Russian missiles and aircraft far from their intended targets inside Ukraine.

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Looks like we might be down another B-2 bomber. The crew had to put it down for a hard landing after an onboard fire started. May be able to repair it but still unclear right now.

There's a de escalation faction in the Biden administration led by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Apparently his influence has waned.