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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/14/22 at 3:02 pm to Philzilla2k
Posted on 12/14/22 at 3:02 pm to Philzilla2k
The solution is not to move it to the political board but to ban posters that continually post political garbage in this thread, despite being forewarned. Moving it to the p board would just be a victory for them. Ban them.
This post was edited on 12/14/22 at 3:42 pm
2
Posted on 12/14/22 at 3:22 pm to jeffsdad
quote:
The solution is not to move it to the political board but to ban posters that continually post political garbage in this thread, despite being forewarned. Moving it to the p board would just be a victory for them. Ban them.
Carl Von Clausewitz described it this way
“War is not merely a political act but a real political instrument, a continuation of political intercourse, a carrying out the same by other means”
War is, at its core, political. It’s impossible to discuss it without taking politics into account.
quote:
That said, the U's appear to be stuck in a defensive positon, and the longer they wait, the harder it will be to get out of it. But, as always, I defer to military people that knows a tad more than me.
The war, which I don’t follow as closely as I would like, seems to be reaching a stalemate. This being the case, that’s not good in the long term for anyone but Russia as they can sustain losses on a scale Ukraine cannot hope to match for long.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 3:54 pm to Darth_Vader
Russian acknowledgment of their willingness to continue with a strategy which results in catastrophic losses is odd, but not unprecedented.
The analysis must continue, however, to observe that this is a losing strategy which, unless reversed nearly always results in the failure of the nation/ state, its economy or both.
Stalingrad is not a formula for success unless you know you adversary will collapse before you do. That seems highly unlikely in Ukraine.
The capacity for or inclination to accept massive suffering is not a desirable objective in war craft.
The analysis must continue, however, to observe that this is a losing strategy which, unless reversed nearly always results in the failure of the nation/ state, its economy or both.
Stalingrad is not a formula for success unless you know you adversary will collapse before you do. That seems highly unlikely in Ukraine.
The capacity for or inclination to accept massive suffering is not a desirable objective in war craft.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 4:14 pm to nitwit
quote:
Russian acknowledgment of their willingness to continue with a strategy which results in catastrophic losses is odd, but not unprecedented. The analysis must continue, however, to observe that this is a losing strategy which, unless reversed nearly always results in the failure of the nation/ state, its economy or both. Stalingrad is not a formula for success unless you know you adversary will collapse before you do. That seems highly unlikely in Ukraine. The capacity for or inclination to accept massive suffering is not a desirable objective in war craft.
Your post from a Western standpoint makes perfect sense. Russia thinks differently though.
In a period between 1914 when WWI started to 1923 when the Russian Civil War ended, something like 13.5 million Russians were killed. That’s not even counting wounded and missing. Then less than a generation later they fought WWII where another 27,000,000 died.
Russia is today very much betting Ukrainian will not be capable of sustaining the losses Russia is willing to sustain. Will they be proven wrong? That remains to be seen.
I think at this point in the war the key questions are:
1. How much damage will Russia inflict on Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly the power grid?
2. How well will Ukrainian morale hold up up through the winter considering the damage done to their infrastructure, particularly the power grid?
If Ukraine’s civilian population morale does not buckle during the winter, and Ukraine can continue to build up and train new forces, it’s possible perhaps before the Spring Rasputitsa arrives, they can launch an offensive that, if successful, will give them an opening to begin serious negotiations from a position of strength.
However, first they have to make it though the winter.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 4:20 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Russia is today very much betting Ukrainian will not be capable of sustaining the losses Russia is willing to sustain. Will they be proven wrong? That remains to be seen.
I think at this point in the war the key questions are:
1. How much damage will Russia inflict on Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly the power grid?
2. How well will Ukrainian morale hold up up through the winter considering the damage done to their infrastructure, particularly the power grid?
If Ukraine’s civilian population morale does not buckle during the winter, and Ukraine can continue to build up and train new forces, it’s possible perhaps before the Spring Rasputitsa arrives, they can launch an offensive that, if successful, will give them an opening to begin serious negotiations from a position of strength.
However, first they have to make it though the winter.
I think you are right on with this assesement. But I don't think Ukraine will buckle during winter. I suspect we will see Ukraine launch some type of offensive, either to try to take Melitopol or liberate the Eastern area of the country. If we don't see that, then I don't think that bodes well for Ukraine.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 4:30 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
“War is not merely a political act but a real political instrument, a continuation of political intercourse,
poli board RA'd
Posted on 12/14/22 at 4:31 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I think you are right on with this assesement. But I don't think Ukraine will buckle during winter. I suspect we will see Ukraine launch some type of offensive, either to try to take Melitopol or liberate the Eastern area of the country. If we don't see that, then I don't think that bodes well for Ukraine.
You could be right on Ukrainian morale. They’re known for a stoic national character. The only thing that gives me pause is how reliant modem society has become on electricity, particularly in urban areas. There are millions of Ukrainians living in cities with no way to heat their homes right as winter is starting. And their winters are something most Americans, especially those of us in the South, cannot fathom. Either way, it’s going to be hell on them and I’m afraid a lot of Ukrainian civilians will die over the winter due to the Russian bombardment on Ukraine’s infrastructure and power grid.
As for the hypothetical offensive I mentioned, I don’t see how Ukraine could go on without launching one before Spring. Ukraine needs this war to end soon. And if Ukraine wants the war to end on anything resembling favorable terms, they can’t do it via a stalemated war of attrition. The only way Ukraine can end the war on favorable terms is by a sufficiently successful offensive that convinces Russia it’s best to negotiate a peace rather than continue fighting.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 4:42 pm to Darth_Vader
All good points.
The longer this war drags on, the less in favor of Ukraine it is. Besides the hardships imposed on their citizens, they also have to worry about softening support from the US and Europe.
The longer this war drags on, the less in favor of Ukraine it is. Besides the hardships imposed on their citizens, they also have to worry about softening support from the US and Europe.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 4:59 pm to Darth_Vader
A couple of things I’d like to point out, didn’t Ukraine suffer as much as Russia did from 1924 through WWII? It’s not as if they aren’t use to suffering, hardship and seeing their loved ones die.
Second look at South and North Korea. They have a truce that’s gone on for decades. I suspect this war could evolve in that direction.
Neither side will cry uncle, but neither side can defeat the other.
Second look at South and North Korea. They have a truce that’s gone on for decades. I suspect this war could evolve in that direction.
Neither side will cry uncle, but neither side can defeat the other.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 5:06 pm to Philzilla2k
quote:
War is absolutely political.
No, war is the result of failed politics.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 5:32 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
The war, which I don’t follow as closely as I would like, seems to be reaching a stalemate. This being the case, that’s not good in the long term for anyone but Russia as they can sustain losses on a scale Ukraine cannot hope to match for long.
This is actually a war between the West and Russia. Ukrainian troops are the proxy soldiers for the West.
However, the British have admitted to covert operations in Ukraine. LINK
Things are changing as Russia gets more desperate.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 5:39 pm to Kentucker
quote:
Ukrainian troops are the proxy soldiers for the West.
Oh brother.
Ukrainian troops are fighting for their country, you idiot.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 6:17 pm to doubleb
quote:
didn’t Ukraine suffer as much as Russia did from 1924 through WWII?
Sure, Stalin killed around 5 million Ukrainians by starvation in the mid 1930's. They have not forgotten. A lot of Ukrainians welcomed the German invasion for this reason until Hitler started slaughtering them too. Ukraine at this point is much more likely to withstand casualties than Russia. This is their homeland, and they have good reason to hate Russia.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 6:30 pm to Chromdome35
I think it’s the other way around for a number of reasons.
1) is ask a Ukrainian and they have been at war with Russia since 2014, it just escalated big time in 2022
2) there is something to be said about defending your homeland vs occupying land. Defending benefits morale. Supply lines are shorter. And u know the territory you are fighting in
3) a long protracted conflict further isolates Russia I wwii Russia had us and allied supplies to keep it going. Now Ukraine has that advantage. Russia can’t replenish the modern tech and arms without outside tech and materials.
4) Ukraine seems to use mobile war tactics while Russia is using force + artillery. There are not enough troops along the front to have continuous static lines of defend. Russia is stacking their ring of defenses at villages/towns that Ukraine can drive around. That’s what happened in the east and the south.
I do see an issue with this dragging out that there will be Les and less Ukraine friendly citizens left in occupied areas and the damage/pillaging will leave nothing much left the longer this goes on but in the end they are still trying to free their lands.
1) is ask a Ukrainian and they have been at war with Russia since 2014, it just escalated big time in 2022
2) there is something to be said about defending your homeland vs occupying land. Defending benefits morale. Supply lines are shorter. And u know the territory you are fighting in
3) a long protracted conflict further isolates Russia I wwii Russia had us and allied supplies to keep it going. Now Ukraine has that advantage. Russia can’t replenish the modern tech and arms without outside tech and materials.
4) Ukraine seems to use mobile war tactics while Russia is using force + artillery. There are not enough troops along the front to have continuous static lines of defend. Russia is stacking their ring of defenses at villages/towns that Ukraine can drive around. That’s what happened in the east and the south.
I do see an issue with this dragging out that there will be Les and less Ukraine friendly citizens left in occupied areas and the damage/pillaging will leave nothing much left the longer this goes on but in the end they are still trying to free their lands.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 6:35 pm to doubleb
quote:
A couple of things I’d like to point out, didn’t Ukraine suffer as much as Russia did from 1924 through WWII? It’s not as if they aren’t use to suffering, hardship and seeing their loved ones die.
Yes. That’s why I described them as having a “stoic national character”.
quote:
Second look at South and North Korea. They have a truce that’s gone on for decades. I suspect this war could evolve in that direction. Neither side will cry uncle, but neither side can defeat the other.
That is a very possible, perhaps even likely, outcome.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 6:38 pm to Kentucker
quote:
No, war is the result of failed politics.
I see you’ve never studied Carl von Clausewitz. I’d recommend if you’re going to speak on matters of war, you’d be wise to at least familiarize yourself with his teachings. It will save you from embarrassing statements like the one you just made.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 6:48 pm to Kentucker
But that article does claim that the British troops were not used in combat situations.... now whether one believes that...
quote:
In the meantime, Britain’s Ministry of Defence also insisted that British soldiers had not been involved in any combat operations, telling the MailOnline: " British personnel have been deployed to support discussions around the significant training being offered to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by the UK. They serve no combat function."
Posted on 12/14/22 at 6:49 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
In a period between 1914 when WWI started to 1923 when the Russian Civil War ended, something like 13.5 million Russians were killed. That’s not even counting wounded and missing. Then less than a generation later they fought WWII where another 27,000,000 died.
Russia is today very much betting Ukrainian will not be capable of sustaining the losses Russia is willing to sustain.
On the other hand the Soviet Union was much stronger than Russia and pulled out of Afghanistan after 15,000 soldiers were killed and 35,000 wounded, over 10 years. Russia has lost several times that in less than one year. Russians are much better at fighting to defend their own country. Which I guess is why Putin declared the occupied regions of Ukraine to be Russia now. He's hoping that now the invasion becomes self defense in the eyes of the public. I'm not sure that the Russian people will believe that for long. Polls suggest that popular support in Russia is falling fast. I'm not so sure that time is on the side of Russia. The NATO nations have around 10x the GDP of Russia and better technology. If NATO gives the support that they are capable of rather than holding back then I think Ukraine wins this war easily, if NATO makes that choice. Sure, that risks going nuclear which makes it difficult. If NATO backs off then maybe Ukraine is screwed. But that would be cowardly and a terrible choice for a number of reasons. Primarily because it encourages every country in the world to develop nukes (not all that hard, really). That would just kick the nuclear can down the road for a few years and then there would be a lot more nations happy to try the same thing. I don't see an alternative to calling the nuclear bluff now. Folding makes things even worse long term.
Fermi's Paradox may indeed be nuclear weapons, or even more powerful weapons if we get that far.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 7:09 pm to Tigris
quote:
Ukrainian Forces today are said to have pushed Russian Units out of the Chemical Waste Plant in Eastern Bakhmut, although in the last few hours there are reports that Russian Armored Elements have broken through Defensives Lines in the South and have partially entered the City.
LINK After more than 6 months of hard fighting, the always victorious Russian army has finally entered the city of Bakhmut. This is just the start friends. The mighty Russian army will continue to stay in reserve as the Ukrainians continue to use up the West's ammo reserves on disposable mobilized conscripts. Once Ukraine has used up enough of the West's ammo supplies the mighty Russian army will be unleashed! Kherson will be liberated! Odessa will be liberated! The West and NATO will not be able to stop Russia because it will have no ammo. Constantinople will be liberated and the Orthodox cross will be raised over the Hagia Sophia by Easter!
On a serious note, why was there a champagne factory in Bakhmut Ukraine? That is not part of the Champagne region of France.
Posted on 12/14/22 at 7:35 pm to BayouBlitz
quote:
Ukrainian troops are fighting for their country
Yes, of course they are. And the West is systematically disassembling the Russian military by training, arming, directing and supplying the Ukrainian army; helping them more than match the bigger Russian military force.
Without the West, the Ukrainians would have lost very quickly. So, yes, they are our proxy in this West/Russia conflict.
Oh, BTW, you jerk.
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