re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, December 11. This report discusses how the Belarusian regime’s support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine as well as Russian pressure on Belarus to become more involved further constrains Belarusian readiness and willingness to enter the war in Ukraine.

Russian officials consistently conduct information operations suggesting that Belarusian conventional ground forces might join Russia’s invasion of Ukraine...Belarus is extraordinarily unlikely to invade Ukraine in the foreseeable future whatever the course of these information operations. A Belarusian intervention in Ukraine, moreover, would not be able to do more than draw Ukrainian ground forces away from other parts of the theater temporarily given the extremely limited effective combat power at Minsk’s disposal.

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The Kremlin’s efforts to pressure Belarus to support the Russian offensive campaign in Ukraine are a part of a long-term effort to cement further control over Belarus

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The Belarusian regime’s support for the Russian invasion has made Belarus a cobelligerent in the war in Ukraine.

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Belarusian support for Russia’s war in Ukraine is likely degrading the Belarusian military’s material capacity to conduct conventional military operations of its own...Belarus is also likely drawing down its inventory of artillery munitions through munitions transfers to the Russian military...Belarusian officials are likely trying to conceal the amount of military equipment they are sending to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine.

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The Belarusian military is likely facing constraints on its capacity to train current and new personnel due to its supporting role in Russian force generation efforts...The Belarusian military likely has a relatively limited capacity to train existing and new personnel.

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The degradation of the Russian military through devastating losses in Ukraine would also hinder the deployment of Belarusian mechanized forces to fight alongside Russian troops

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Lukashenko’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine and Russian pressure on Belarus to join the fighting are likely causing friction within the Belarusian military...Belarusian personnel are certainly aware of the significant losses that Russian forces suffered in Ukraine and likely do not wish to experience the same result...Elements within the Belarusian military have shown resistance to the idea of entering the war in Ukraine.

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Lukashenko’s setting of information conditions likely further constrains Belarusian willingness to enter the war.

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Belarus is already unlikely to invade Ukraine due to internal dynamics within the country

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Belarusian entry in the war would at worst force Ukraine to temporarily divert manpower and equipment from current front lines.

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Belarus will continue to help Russia fight its war in Ukraine even though Lukashenko is highly unlikely to send his army to join the fighting

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Russian officials will continue to conduct information operations aimed at suggesting that Belarusian forces might invade Ukraine in order to pin Ukrainian forces at the Belarusian border. These information operations are extraordinarily unlikely to herald actual Belarusian intervention in the foreseeable future.

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Key inflections in ongoing military operations on December 11:

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) denied rumors on December 11 that General Valery Gerasimov resigned or was removed from his position as Chief of the General Staff.[38]

Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that fighting continues along the Svatove-Kreminna line and near Lyman amidst poor weather conditions.[39]

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces transferred over 200 pieces of equipment from the Kherson direction to the Kupyansk direction, and geolocated footage shows Russian T-90 tanks in Luhansk Oblast headed west.[40] A Ukrainian official stated that a larger Russian force grouping does not currently pose a threat.[41]

Russian forces made marginal territorial gains around Bakhmut as Russian and Ukrainian sources reported continued fighting in the area.[42] A Ukrainian Armed Forces Eastern Group spokesperson stated that Russian forces changed tactics from using battalion tactical groups (BTGs) to smaller assault groups for offensive actions.[43]

Russian and Ukrainian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck Skadovsk, Hola Prystan, Oleshky, and Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, all along major Russian logistics lines.[44]

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian military base in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast.[45] One source claimed that the strike killed up to 200 Russian military personnel.[46]

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian occupation authorities intensified forced mobilization measures in occupied Ukraine.[47]

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces face shortages of blood for wounded military personnel and are running donor drives in occupied Crimea.[48]

A Ukrainian partisan group claimed responsibility for setting fire to a Russian military barracks in Sovietske, Crimea.[49] Ukrainian and Russian officials reported that Russian authorities continued filtration and law enforcement crackdowns in occupied Ukraine.[50]

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claimed there was still much work to be done regarding ‘liberation’ of those territories.

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The relationship between Russia and Iran is becoming “a full-scale defense partnership” that threatens the Middle East and the rest of the world, a senior U.S. official said Friday.

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that “support is flowing both ways,” as Moscow offers “an unprecedented level of military and technical support” to Tehran in exchange for Iranian drones, and potentially ballistic missiles, for use in Ukraine.

The new assessment, citing intelligence reports, builds on previous U.S. reports of the sale of “hundreds” of Iranian drones, currently being used by Russia to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Now, “Russia is seeking to collaborate with Iran on areas like weapons development and training,” Kirby said. The Biden administration also had asserted previously that “dozens” of Iranian technicians went to Russian-occupied Crimea, and Russians were sent to Iran, for instructions on use of the drones.

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The sale of additional drones was discussed during at least two meetings between military and diplomatic officials from Russia and Iran in the past month, security officials from NATO and other U.S.-allied countries said. One senior military official briefed on details of the exchanges said Iran had agreed to supply up to 6,000 aircraft, mostly Shahed models of the type used by Russia in attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure since the summer.

The military official agreed to discuss the matter on the condition that his identity and nationality not be revealed, citing the sensitive nature of intelligence-collection efforts involved. A second official, from a NATO member state, confirmed that Iran had agreed to supply “thousands” of drones. Both officials also confirmed that Iranian ballistic missiles also were acquired by Russia.

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The senior military official, citing intelligence intercepts, said Iran agreed to supply designs as well as technical supervision for the planned Russian drone factory, which is expected to be located in the Tatarstan region. Iran is to receive payments of up to $1 billion, in addition to other, still unknown inducements, the official said.

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A bridge is blown up in occupied Melitopol

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So, I wonder if part of this is about getting a lot of GOP members on board by promising this increased oversight (though I personally think there's already enough of that -- if you want to see accountability, just look at Oryx's list of Russian equipment destroyed).

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