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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/10/24 at 5:41 am to GoAwayImBaitn
Posted on 6/10/24 at 5:41 am to GoAwayImBaitn
Well. The map has looked the same for two years. So it's maybe not as obvious to those of us who aren't in the know like you are.
So did you answer the part about what does a Russian victory look like? Maybe I missed that?
Are you saying that a Russian victory looks like the current map? So this is what this war was about? Going from 16% control of Ukraine in 2014 to 19% in 2024?
So this is it? Russia has what they want? Or will they keep going?
Kiev? Odessa? I'm still unclear on this
So did you answer the part about what does a Russian victory look like? Maybe I missed that?
Are you saying that a Russian victory looks like the current map? So this is what this war was about? Going from 16% control of Ukraine in 2014 to 19% in 2024?
So this is it? Russia has what they want? Or will they keep going?
Kiev? Odessa? I'm still unclear on this
3
Posted on 6/10/24 at 5:55 am to No Colors
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 10 June 2024
On 28 May 2024, Ukraine's Defence Intelligence (HUR) reported that Russia has intensified attempts to recruit Africans to fight in Ukraine. In particular these recruitment efforts focus on the central African countries of Rwanda, Burundi, Congo and Uganda. Russia is reportedly offering a sign-up bonus of $2,000, monthly pay of $2,200 and the promise of a Russian passport.
This recruitment campaign is likely to replace Russian battlefield losses, which are significant, and to sustain offensive activity in multiple axes across the front. With Russia's finite pool of convict recruitment likely culminated, Russia is likely expanding its recruitment across the global south, to avoid additional mobilisations within Russia itself. As well as being domestically unpopular for President Putin and the Russian government, the previous mobilisation for the war resulted in a record labour shortage and an exodus of skilled workers such as doctors and IT professionals.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 10 June 2024
On 28 May 2024, Ukraine's Defence Intelligence (HUR) reported that Russia has intensified attempts to recruit Africans to fight in Ukraine. In particular these recruitment efforts focus on the central African countries of Rwanda, Burundi, Congo and Uganda. Russia is reportedly offering a sign-up bonus of $2,000, monthly pay of $2,200 and the promise of a Russian passport.
This recruitment campaign is likely to replace Russian battlefield losses, which are significant, and to sustain offensive activity in multiple axes across the front. With Russia's finite pool of convict recruitment likely culminated, Russia is likely expanding its recruitment across the global south, to avoid additional mobilisations within Russia itself. As well as being domestically unpopular for President Putin and the Russian government, the previous mobilisation for the war resulted in a record labour shortage and an exodus of skilled workers such as doctors and IT professionals.
Posted on 6/10/24 at 6:01 am to No Colors
I am interested to hear volsquatch’s opinion on this as well. I may have missed it but I haven’t yet seen him say anything negative towards the anti Ukraine posters.
This post was edited on 6/10/24 at 6:25 am
Posted on 6/10/24 at 6:26 am to No Colors
Quiet dude, he's busy "baitn" maybe he gets a nut from his posting.
Posted on 6/10/24 at 7:08 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I am interested to hear volsquatch’s opinion on this as well. I may have missed it but I haven’t yet seen him say anything negative towards the anti Ukraine posters.
I have, but very few times. Generally I think dogpiling is kind of a waste of time and prefer to keep to more controversial issues, or debate against the consensus if I hold an opinion that is against it.
I generally think at least around half of the "anti-Ukraine" (which is hopefully just anti-aid, or anti-unlimited aid) have illogical arguments and miss the mark on several issues. They might ultimately be correct (IMO) with their conclusions, but how they got there is the issue.
Some issues I see consistently:
1) Mistaking (or at least not being able to clarify) that just because Russia does have some legitimate motivations, that doesn't mean the invasion itself is legitimate or justified. At all.
2) Buying into propaganda or wild theories. Both sides do this regularly and I have myself at times, but its a factor here.
3) They seem to feel that because they think Russia will "win" this ultimately that it means they must spin things to make it seem like Russia is doing well currently, when I would say that neither side is particularly successful right now and I think you'd probably have to say Ukraine has had more success in the past 3 months.
Posted on 6/10/24 at 7:26 am to VolSquatch
Hey look it’s the good stuff Russia is saving up!
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-latest-generation-russian-fighter-jet-hit-first-time-2024-06-09/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-latest-generation-russian-fighter-jet-hit-first-time-2024-06-09/
Posted on 6/10/24 at 7:44 am to VolSquatch
quote:
3) They seem to feel that because they think Russia will "win" this ultimately that it means they must spin things to make it seem like Russia is doing well
I have been asking them for months on this forum to describe what a Russian victory looks like, and when we might expect it to come to fruition.
4 Oblasts? Kharkiv? Kiev? Odessa? All of Ukraine? The Donbas but not Crimea? Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO? Zelensky replaced?
I still can't get an answer. Which is sort of on par with past misadventures of both the US, Russia, and other actors along these lines?
Why did we invade Iraq? WMD? Regime Change? Nation Building? To (ironically) foil Iran? Democracy for it's own sake????
We didn't have a good answer then, and we don't now. And did we win? We took Baghdad!!! And now Iran literally runs the country. What did a US victory ever look like?
What did a victory in Vietnam look like? What about Russia in Afghanistan? Russia in Syria?
At some point you have to state your goals, and then accomplish them. Or you're not fighting a war. You're just camping with high casualties.
Posted on 6/10/24 at 8:17 am to No Colors
quote:
I have been asking them for months on this forum to describe what a Russian victory looks like, and when we might expect it to come to fruition.
I think their ultimate goal is full, uncontested control of Crimea. But Putin can't launch this costly of a war just for Crimea and be able to sell that to the public or those underneath him with enough power that they could realistically overthrow and replace him. So then the contested areas come into play, and I'm sure they will take additional land if battlefield conditions change and they are able to.
It probably ends with Russia getting Crimea and absorbing the "contested" territories into Russia. Ukraine will call this a win because Russia really didn't gain any ground, Russia calls it a win because they officially annex those territories.
quote:
At some point you have to state your goals, and then accomplish them. Or you're not fighting a war. You're just camping with high casualties.
"We want this piece of ground" wasn't as controversial of a casus belli a century or two ago. "We don't like X leader of Y country" is still somewhat accepted depending on the country and the leader.
I think a lot of those conflicts you mentioned had goals, but the issue is you (maybe) solve one problem then create 5 more. Saddam was bad. The situation we created was worse. Vietnam, or Afghanistan for both the US and Russia were just failures with no real problems solved.
Iraq seemed bad at the time and only looks worse the further away from it we get.
Posted on 6/10/24 at 8:29 am to No Colors
quote:We should ask ourselves the same question re: Ukraine.
what a Russian victory looks like
But specific to your question, victory looks like one side or the other has attained expectations. In Russia's case that means "victory" in Feb'22 looked very different than "victory" in June'24. At the outset, Putin's expectation was Russia would occupy Kyiv and control most of Ukraine by the summer. Those expectations got vaporized. So Putin and Russia hit the expectation reset button. Now they'd consider acceptance of Russian control over the occupied territories to be "victory."
In reality, the war has been terrible for Russia. The Russians come off as feckless, and conventionally vulnerable. Aside from a complete Ukrainian capitulation, there is no path to a true Russian victory at this stage IMO.
Posted on 6/10/24 at 8:37 am to VolSquatch
quote:
I think their ultimate goal is full, uncontested control of Crimea.
To have this, you must have Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odessa. Russia can't have ATACAMS and F16s raining down on them from those places. Other than a warm vacation spot for Russians, what is the point of Crimea without Sevastopol? And you can't have Sevastopol without taking F-16, ATACAMS, and Storm Shadow off the table. Why would Ukraine agree to that?
At this point Crimea can't be used to host air bases, and can't be used as a naval base. That's a total failure. And what changes that? "Ok we will promise to stop trying to take Kharkiv if you allow us to fully occupy the air and naval bases in Crimea that we have been forced to abandon???
That's a pipe dream for Russia, In order to get Ukraine to agree to something like this, they're gonna need a huge victory somewhere else to trade for it. And I don't know what that victory could possibly be.
Posted on 6/10/24 at 8:58 am to VolSquatch
Solid response, thank you. I am currently driving from KC to Fayetteville. Will post additional thoughts when I am home.
Posted on 6/10/24 at 9:38 am to GOP_Tiger
The Russians can replace tanks and armored vehicles a whole lot easier than they can these air defense systems. Im assuming the radars for these systems went bye bye along with their launchers and control stations. This is a pace of destruction that Russia can’t keep up with. They already are scavenging air defense systems from around Russia and Kaliningrad to replace those lost on the front lines but even that runs out after a time. Unlike 50 year old tanks, there are no huge warehouses where old S-300s are kept as backup and the S-400 has proven to be a joke which won’t help it’s sale to other countries. Russia has a big problem on their hands. They have lost 2 of their 3 over the horizon radars for nuclear deterrence either destroyed or damaged, 2 of their early warning A-50U aircraft and a whole shitload of S-300 and S-400 systems along with their radars. That’s not even accounting other air defenses like BUK, TOR, Pantsir right on down to short range systems like Strela-10. Bottom line: Russia is becoming more and more blind in the air at the worst possible time for them with F-16s coming around the corner.
This post was edited on 6/10/24 at 9:39 am
Posted on 6/10/24 at 9:47 am to LSUPilot07
Nearly 20,000 Wagner mercenaries died taking Bakhmut, media investigation confirms
by Chris York June 10, 2024 5:41 PM
Nearly 20,000 Russian mercenaries died fighting for Wagner Group during the Battle of Bakhmut, an investigation by BBC Russia and Mediazona published on June 10 has found.
The outlets obtained documents shortly after the death of the group's founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023, detailing the posthumous payments to relatives of those killed fighting in Ukraine between January 2022 and August 2023.
"This document contains more than 20,000 names of those killed," Mediazona writes, adding: "Most of the Wagnerites died in the 'Bakhmut meat grinder' – more than 19,500 people."
The numbers roughly confirm the number claimed by Prigozhin himself in May 2023 when he said he had lost more than 20,000 men in the fight for the town.
The report also found 17,000 of those killed were former prisoners, pardoned by Russian President Vladimir Putin in exchange for heading to the front.
Using the identification numbers of those killed, journalists were also able to determine that at least 48,000 prisoners fought for Wagner during this time.
The Kyiv Independent
by Chris York June 10, 2024 5:41 PM
Nearly 20,000 Russian mercenaries died fighting for Wagner Group during the Battle of Bakhmut, an investigation by BBC Russia and Mediazona published on June 10 has found.
The outlets obtained documents shortly after the death of the group's founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023, detailing the posthumous payments to relatives of those killed fighting in Ukraine between January 2022 and August 2023.
"This document contains more than 20,000 names of those killed," Mediazona writes, adding: "Most of the Wagnerites died in the 'Bakhmut meat grinder' – more than 19,500 people."
The numbers roughly confirm the number claimed by Prigozhin himself in May 2023 when he said he had lost more than 20,000 men in the fight for the town.
The report also found 17,000 of those killed were former prisoners, pardoned by Russian President Vladimir Putin in exchange for heading to the front.
Using the identification numbers of those killed, journalists were also able to determine that at least 48,000 prisoners fought for Wagner during this time.
The Kyiv Independent
Posted on 6/10/24 at 10:05 am to Lee B
quote:
As long as it takes"
As far as I can tell from what all the experts who supposedly have access to discussions that go on behind closed doors about all of this stuff...
"As long as it takes" means containing Russia to fighting in Ukraine, rather than spilling over to a full NATO confrontation, for as long as it takes for Putin's economy and military and power are degraded to the point where he is not a problem for anyone anymore. As to why we have restrictions, apparently, it is to avoid escalation to a Nuclear exchange (the same reason we want to avoid a full NATO confrontation with Russia). These things get expanded in baby steps... having other countries in NATO remove restrictions first undercuts Putin portraying it as a US aggression, but someone predicted by the end of this year Ukraine will have permission to strike anything anywhere in Russia, because Putin makes the case for it every time he retaliates to a Ukrainian military success by killing Ukrainian civilians in anger. There's politics involved, too... there will be people screaming when those restrictions are lifted and trying to cut off aid again because of it, so public support has to be built... and I personally think it's a shame it has to be built on the graves of Ukrainians.
Thank you for your response. I agree with you regarding the graves of Ukrainians. Gen Ben Hodges has called Biden's policy a total failure and said that there is no strategic plan. He even mentions Escalation Management as a failure. He even said the Biden's advisors did the same when they worked for Obama. Gen. Breedlove has said the same thing. These are not Trump supporters saying this. IMO Biden has been a total failure on this and is as weak as Scholz of Germany. Why give them ATACMS if you arent going to let them be used? The strategy of dragging this out/delay has been deadly. Ukraine could have won this last year when they had the momentum after the Kharkiv and Kherson successes if they had been supported properly from the beginning.
Biden has not gone to the American people once and explained why we are doing this or why it is in the interest of America. That is a lack of leadership. Biden's weakness and lack of leadership has cost the lives of thousands of Ukrainians. It is apparent to me that Biden is never going to adopt the policies/stance for defeating Russia. They fear Putin and his nuclear threats and a Russian defeat. They fear a Ukrainian victory. They are unwilling to do what it takes as General Breedlove said. There is no objective.
Biden failed in Afghanistan. He failed in Israel and he has failed in Ukraine. He has failed at the southern border. What he allowed is a violation of his oath and a travesty for this country. It is treason and they have done it on purpose. Biden has failed on the economy and inflation. This country is a mess and the world is on fire.
Can you name one policy or one thing that Biden has been successful on or that has benefited this country? I can't name one. He has been a disaster for this nation. Joe Biden has permanently damaged this nation with his failed policies and he should be held accountable.
Anyone with an objective opinion knows this is true. Facts.
"As long as it takes" is not a strategy. It is a bumper sticker slogan.
Hodges calls it a ridiculous statement.
This post was edited on 6/10/24 at 10:15 am
Posted on 6/10/24 at 10:18 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
This administration made it crystal clear over two years ago they want this war. They don't want peace. They made it crystal clear, just as you described, that they are happy throw as much Ukrainian human fodder as possible at the Russians to "press Putin." Define it as you'd like. Blame whomever you want. But in the end, you support sacrificing thousands and thousands of Ukrainians in order to hopefully "weaken" Putin.
Putin does not want peace, there will not be peace. End of story. You're indulging in unrealistic fantasy.
If the Ukrainians did not want to fight they would not be fighting. We're not forcing them to, and we can't.
Posted on 6/10/24 at 10:20 am to AU86
quote:
Can you name one policy or one thing that Biden has been successful on or that has benefited this country? I can't name one. He has been a disaster for this nation. Joe Biden has permanently damaged this nation with his failed policies and he should be held accountable.
He has even screwed up renewable diesel markets. Even though its cost to make is $1.20 less per gallon, It now only makes 30 cents instead of 90 cents in 2021.
Posted on 6/10/24 at 10:23 am to GoAwayImBaitn
quote:
Go look at a current map. See that shaded color showing how Russia has gained and is now controlling miles and miles of Ukrainian territory?
Now go do the same observation across the Russian border. See any new Ukrainian control over Russian lands?
Some hard stuff to comprehend isn't it?
frick... there's moving the goalposts to troll, then there's putting them outside of the stadium.
frick...
Posted on 6/10/24 at 10:36 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
We should ask ourselves the same question re: Ukraine.
Every day that you still have to come here and comment because Ukraine still exists and is in the fight is victory for Ukraine.
Posted on 6/10/24 at 10:45 am to AU86
Now do the Freedom Caucus.
Posted on 6/10/24 at 10:46 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
We should ask ourselves the same question re: Ukraine.
Ukaine maintains most of the territory they hold, forcing peace from Russia that explicitly permits them to join the EU while retaining security guarantees.
That's a win. Anything above and beyond that is a huge win and a crushing defeat for Putin.
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