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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/11/22 at 4:08 pm to LSUCanFAN
Posted on 12/11/22 at 4:08 pm to LSUCanFAN
quote:
Three short conversations this morning all saying the same thing: the next offensive will happen in the short term
I don't think that a new Ukrainian offensive is imminent. This is why:
LINK
quote:
Long awaited rotation of Ukrainian units in Donbas is finally under way.
The successful Ukrainian offensive in Kherson Oblast and reaching the Dnipro river has allowed the Ukrainian command to shift a number of units from Kherson Oblast to Donbas.
Northern Donbas
Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade returns to the eastern Ukraine after a brief deployment in Kherson Oblast. It reportedly replaces 93rd Mechanized Brigade, which defended the vicinity of Bakhmut and Soledar for several months.
Ukrainian 57th Motorized Brigade moves to the vicinity of Bakhmut. It’s currently unknown which unit has been replaced, but there are some indications that 58th Motorized Brigade might get some rest.
Artillery and infantry battalion of 36th Marine Brigade has been relocated from Kherson Oblast to the area of Bakhmut as well.
Elements of 28th Mechanized Brigade were seen by Western reporters on the ground in the area of Kostyanytivka, just south-west of Bakhmut.
At least one battalion of 46th Airmobile Brigade have been redeployed to the area of Bakhmut.
Southern Donbas
At least a one battalion of 35th Marine Brigade, the 18th Marine Infantry Battalion, has been relocated to the area of Nevelske and Pervomaiske to stabilize the worsening situation in the area.
It’s actually surprising to see elements of Ukrainian Marine Brigades to be deployed to Donbas, instead of for example in the direction of Melitopol or keeping them in the area of Kherson for a possible offensive across the Dnipro river. The large influx of Ukrainian units to Donbas from Kherson indicates that the Ukrainian command doesn’t plan any offensive operation across Dnipro anytime soon.
Plus, the weather is crummy now. Everything has thawed and is muddy again. These units that have rotated out can get a rest and get some weapons repaired and serviced. A new offensive would make sense in three weeks or so.
4
Posted on 12/11/22 at 4:28 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I don't think that a new Ukrainian offensive is imminent.
In mobilization time 3 weeks is a finger snap.
I would like to know how they are moving heavy units, apparently right out in the open.
Posted on 12/11/22 at 5:01 pm to Lakeboy7
What is the current size of the Ukrainian army? I heard on an interview that the Ukr field army is now around 190,000 men. Correct?
Posted on 12/11/22 at 5:04 pm to Tigers2010a
quote:
Ukr field army is now around 190,000 men.
Thats close. 210-215 maybe.
Posted on 12/11/22 at 5:30 pm to Cobra Tate
quote:
just another example of how shitty the Russian military is.
That and how much our military aid can help
The Ukrainian leadership didn't even give them many Javelins at the start of the war because they figured that Bakhmut would fall relatively quickly and the weapons would be captured. Plus the terrain does not really favor tanks there. Luckily for the Ukrainians, they became experts in trench warfare during the low intensity conflict in the Donbass from 2015-2/23/22. The Ukrainians in Bakhmut have been holding the Russians back with mostly Soviet era gear and tech since this invasion began. They only recently started seeing western weapons on that front as it became the main the front of the war.
Posted on 12/11/22 at 5:39 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
A net positive for who? What real threat is Iran to anyone but its immediate neighbors?
For one, and most importantly directly related to American security they’ve used their terrorist proxies to attack American troops. Destabilization at this point potentially leads to disruption of their nuclear program before it’s too late. Their having operational nukes isn’t exactly ideal for ME balance of power. Just look how much people like OML were screaming we can’t do anything for Ukraine because Russia might nuke us so we should let them get away with it. Now think of how active Iran is in the ME via proxy.
Ukraine would directly benefit as they’ve been supplying and aiding the Russians with suicide drones at minimum. Of course this means Europe and the US indirectly benefit via potentially sooner close to the war.
Since you brought up Iraq and Syria, potentially having one less external player there can allow it’s own populace to get itself back together. Syria in particular theoretically could lose two external players muddying things up if Iran were forced to pull back while Russia also has all it wants in Ukraine.
Iran is also the current recognized largest stage sponsor of terror so you’ll have to excuse my potential happiness in their govt getting fricked.
Posted on 12/11/22 at 5:46 pm to WeeWee
WeeWee,
The first Russia breakthrough of the defensive line in the east was Popansa if memory serves me correctly and it was on an east-west hill ridge. Russia has been stuck since it had to go to a valley then up hills for months.
It is obvious that Russia sacrificed a lot taking Severodonetsk with Lysichansk heights being used for artillery which could reach any point below it included the wide open flat ground around Severodonetsk. Losing a major highway access is the only reason they had to abandon Lysichansk.
Russia seems hell bent on doing the same at Bakhmut sacrificing lots of men and equipment in the process.
Russia really doesn't give a shiite about its men at all.
The first Russia breakthrough of the defensive line in the east was Popansa if memory serves me correctly and it was on an east-west hill ridge. Russia has been stuck since it had to go to a valley then up hills for months.
It is obvious that Russia sacrificed a lot taking Severodonetsk with Lysichansk heights being used for artillery which could reach any point below it included the wide open flat ground around Severodonetsk. Losing a major highway access is the only reason they had to abandon Lysichansk.
Russia seems hell bent on doing the same at Bakhmut sacrificing lots of men and equipment in the process.
Russia really doesn't give a shiite about its men at all.
Posted on 12/11/22 at 5:47 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I don't think that a new Ukrainian offensive is imminent. This is why:
Definitely makes sense but then again, Ukraine has been noted for its head fakes thus far.
Posted on 12/11/22 at 5:58 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Plus, the weather is crummy now. Everything has thawed and is muddy again. These units that have rotated out can get a rest and get some weapons repaired and serviced. A new offensive would make sense in three weeks or so.
My sauce(s) are telling me that Ukraine is preparing a new offensive as soon as the weather allows. It also looks like the weather may allow an offensive just in time for new years and orthodox Christmas.
Posted on 12/11/22 at 6:01 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Iran is also the current recognized largest stage sponsor of terror so you’ll have to excuse my potential happiness in their govt getting fricked.
The fact that Kissinger was able to keep both Saudi Arabia and Iran in the fold (until the fall of the Shah) is nothing short of either a miracle or statecraft at the 4D level.
Saudi Arabia did like keeping the price of oil low (lowest cost producer ever) while the Shah wanted OPEC to make the price rise so he could build a large military
Posted on 12/11/22 at 6:09 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Definitely makes sense but then again, Ukraine has been noted for its head fakes thus far.
I believe it is was a target of opportunity (take out the head of WG) and misdirection. I believe that an offensive will happen in the northern part of the front not in the southern for 2 reasons.
1. The ground is more likely to freeze and solidify on that part of the front. The ground may or may not freeze around Melitopol. Last year for example it never froze and that is why the invasion did not move as fast in the south as the Russians planned.
2. Capture Svatove and critical bridges on all the rail and road links between Russia and the Donbass are within HIMARs range. Take out or significantly damage the bridges and Russia will be forced to rely on trucks to supply its forces. The Ukrainian road network is not in good enough shape to allow for that to happen and the Russians do not have enough trucks wither. Let the Russians winter in the Donbass with limited food, fuel, ammo and arse wipe and they won't be able to put up much of a fight when the spring Rasputitsia is over and Ukraine can launch an offensive to push the Russia out for good.
Posted on 12/11/22 at 6:35 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:In same interview, the Russians apparently have around 600,000 now deployed. 200,000 along southern frontlines. 200,000 east of Kharkiv in Russia. 200,000 in Belarus northwest of Kiev. How in the world can even 215,000 defend against 600,000 attacking along 3 axis? That does not look good.
Thats close. 210-215 maybe.
Posted on 12/11/22 at 6:44 pm to Tigers2010a
quote:
In same interview, the Russians apparently have around 600,000 now deployed. 200,000 along southern frontlines. 200,000 east of Kharkiv in Russia. 200,000 in Belarus northwest of Kiev. How in the world can even 215,000 defend against 600,000 attacking along 3 axis? That does not look good.
They're a rabble, not an army. The professionals, such as they were, died last spring and summer. What's left are untrained, unmotivated, unled and unsupplied. If Russia had a year to reorganize and restructure, Ukraine would be in bad shape. But there's no indication Russia has the ability or the desire to learn from its mistakes, and Ukraine is not going to give them the respite to figure it out.
Posted on 12/11/22 at 6:54 pm to Tigers2010a
quote:
600,000 now deployed
That seems awfully high.
Posted on 12/11/22 at 6:58 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
That seems awfully high.
It is high by a factor of at least 2. Infrastructure remaining in Russian held places doesn’t support 600k troops.
This post was edited on 12/11/22 at 6:59 pm
Posted on 12/11/22 at 7:02 pm to TheGasMan
Read what he posted.
200k on the sidelines in Belarus, 200k on the sidelines in Russia, 200k in theatre.
200k on the sidelines in Belarus, 200k on the sidelines in Russia, 200k in theatre.
Posted on 12/11/22 at 7:03 pm to Highthoughts
Meh still, 600k aren’t mobilized and ready to roll.
Posted on 12/11/22 at 7:07 pm to TheGasMan
Yeah, that still holds true. Your point still stands 
Posted on 12/11/22 at 7:07 pm to GOP_Tiger
I don’t think a big offensive will be in the next few weeks either. If they took the 93rd Mechanized Brigade off the line then that right there tells me something as they are one of Ukraine’s best fighting units. You’d think any big offensive would have units like the 93rd at the top of the spear. It would be nice to send a lot of the guys who have been on the line constantly in combat home for Christmas to rest and refit. A couple weeks away to be with family can do a hell of a lot for troop moral. We know the Russians will be spending Christmas freezing in their half flooded trenches playing hide the pickle with each other. These times are when it’s most important to have resistance attacks behind the lines to keep pressure on the Russians while Ukraine regroups their forces where they want.
Posted on 12/11/22 at 7:45 pm to TheGasMan
quote:
It is high by a factor of at least 2. Infrastructure remaining in Russian held places doesn’t support 600k troops.
What sources do you have for total deployed Russia troops around Ukraine? I have not been seeing sources for total deployed Russian troops but did hear the number in an interview.
Well that is 600K in three separate areas. 200k is already supported in the Ukraine. Then 200k in Belarus and another 200k opposite Kharkiv which are basically untouched by the war. I don't see infrastructure problems except maybe around Kharkiv.
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