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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 10/29/22 at 1:26 pm to
Posted by CalcuttaTigah
Member since Jul 2009
1003 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 1:26 pm to
And don’t think for a second that what little Russian O&G profits there are will be going back to the Russian people. They are feeling the impact.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5660 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 1:30 pm to
Commander of the Central Military District has been dismissed
Saturday, 29 October 2022, 19:28

Colonel-General Alexander Lapin, the Commander of the Central Military District, has been dismissed from his post.

Source: Chechen state television and radio channel, RBC, Meduza, the Russian Latvia-based media outlet

Details: On Saturday, a number of Russian media sources, including Chechen state television and radio channel and an RBC source familiar with the personnel decision, reported about Lapin's dismissal.

As Meduza noted, Lapin has recently been actively criticised by Ramzan Kadyrov, the Head of the Chechen Republic: in early October, he accused the general of surrendering Lyman and called him "talentless". According to Kadyrov, Lapin, in charge of this area of defence, did not provide the mobilised occupiers from Luhansk Oblast with the necessary means, and he allegedly "was hiding" in Luhansk.

Ukrainska Pravda
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 1:38 pm to
quote:

China, India, Iran, Saudi, etc notwithstanding?


None of those countries are going to invest in Russia. Will they buy oil and gas at deep discounts? absolutely. But will they invest in any type of Russian busines or partner with Russia on big projects? no.

After what has happened the last months you would have to be insane to do business with Russia.
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

Which Russian troll was it again saying the US should only get involved to protect shipping and trade?



Protecting our food supply and international shipping lanes is why you have a big, modern navy.

Does Russia have any warships left in the Black Sea for us to sink?
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15773 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 2:00 pm to
quote:

I'm no economic expert, but I suspect that increased oil revenues are making all the numbers look good. If that was subtracted out, I think that Russian economy would look very different.



What NC is missing is cost to produce oil in Russia. It was $50 a barrel several years ago. They have gotten it down a bit but not below $45. Revenue and net earnings are two different things. The earnings reported are projected from Brent crude price and not after steep discounts to attract buyers.
This post was edited on 10/29/22 at 2:02 pm
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15773 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 2:07 pm to
quote:

Lapin


Run rabbit run
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15773 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 2:31 pm to
As a comparison, what is being exported from the USA is West Texas Light not West Texas Intermediate which sells for around $75 per barrel. If memory serves me correctly it costs under $35 to produce.

So Russian crude (depends which grade) is actually net gain is around $10 per barrel net for months, it was higher in the Spring, but not since. Meanwhile the lowest grade in the US is making $40 per barrel net.

We must remember that WTI and Brent are widgets which are sets of specifications and not physical crude oil.
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30527 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 2:48 pm to
Some of the talking heads tossing turd grenades in the punchbowl and the moderator doesn't like it. Russian TV

YT
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
139071 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 3:01 pm to
quote:

What NC is missing is cost to produce oil in Russia

No. TBH, I thought Russian breakeven was slightly higher than that.

What I'm missing is how Russia lost large components contributory to its GDP, yet somehow mitigated those effects. On paper, loss of EU hydrocarbon sales, and exit of virtually all foreign corps/investment should have been devastating far beyond a 2.9% contraction.

It smells like there are players out there helping Russia, significantly. It would behoove us to identify them if they exist, or otherwise understand how Russia has sidestepped economic devastation.
Posted by TBoy
Kalamazoo
Member since Dec 2007
28603 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 3:14 pm to
quote:

Some of the talking heads tossing turd grenades in the punchbowl and the moderator doesn't like it. Russian TV

Another extraordinary clip. Thanks for that. Some of these talking heads are actually starting to break with Putin in public. I did not expect to see that.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
139071 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

Some of these talking heads are actually starting to break with Putin in public. I did not expect to see that.

+1
Posted by lowspark12
nashville, tn
Member since Aug 2009
22582 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 3:27 pm to
Bombing civilian infrastructure will just further galvanize support in Ukraine…. It provides no real strategic or tactical advantage.

I guess it wins you some headlines domestically, but that’s it.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8619 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 3:38 pm to
These aren’t just old T-55 tanks though. They have been upgraded like a son of a bitch with western parts that make them just as good as Russia’s upgraded T-72s. These will help a lot and it’s enough to make their own special T-55 tank battalion.
Posted by TacoNash
Member since Mar 2020
715 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 3:55 pm to
Anyone else seeing reports of this?

Russia has blocked all access to Telegram across the Russian Federation .

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1586456976497643521?s=46&t=skOxOPeGt6Pxe0eRpmSjnA
Posted by jfan244888
Soda City, SC
Member since Jul 2021
1156 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 3:58 pm to
Surely a sign of things going well for Russia.

Posted by mmcgrath
Indianapolis
Member since Feb 2010
37341 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 4:03 pm to
quote:

No. TBH, I thought Russian breakeven was slightly higher than that.

What I'm missing is how Russia lost large components contributory to its GDP, yet somehow mitigated those effects. On paper, loss of EU hydrocarbon sales, and exit of virtually all foreign corps/investment should have been devastating far beyond a 2.9% contraction.

It smells like there are players out there helping Russia, significantly. It would behoove us to identify them if they exist, or otherwise understand how Russia has sidestepped economic devastation.
To my knowledge, we have only seen the Q2 GDP numbers. Those won't show any affect to oil sales in Europe. The Q3 numbers won't even show the full effect but it should be considerable.
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30527 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 4:22 pm to
Good ole Vlad Solovyov says they will put 10-15 million under rifle and take a walk across Europe.

If you note in this and many other of his rants he insinuates significant numbers of people from Europe are fighting IN Ukraine and their armies are getting ground up.

Twitter
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5660 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 4:50 pm to
Access to the t.me domain owned by Telegram has been restricted in Russia
Saturday, 29 October 2022, 23:09

Roskomnadzor [Russian federal executive agency responsible for monitoring, controlling and censoring Russian mass media], at the request of the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation, has restricted access to the t.me domain owned by Telegram in Russia.

Source: Russian business channel RBK

Details: Access to the t.me domain owned by Telegram is limited, according to the data of the Roskomnadzor service for checking the restriction of access to websites and website pages.

The justification for the service’s inclusion in the Roskomnadzor’s register was Article 15.3 of the law on information (restriction of access to sites on the Internet that contain information with calls for mass riots, the implementation of extremist activities or participation in mass events held in violation of the established order, unreliable socially significant information).

The decision is based on the requirement of the Prosecutor General's Office of Russia dated 29 October.

Ukrainska Pravda
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20975 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 4:57 pm to
I wonder why Russia blocked Telegram. I can think of several possible reasons.

Apparently, they have now taken it off the official list of blocked websites, but it's still unavailable. So, it's not officially blocked anymore, but it actually is blocked in reality.

By the way, has anyone seen BKR lately? I'm worried that Prigozhin might have decided that he wasn't trolling effectively enough and sent him to Bakhmut.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
139071 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 5:08 pm to
quote:

To my knowledge, we have only seen the Q2 GDP numbers. Those won't show any affect to oil sales in Europe. The Q3 numbers won't even show the full effect but it should be considerable.
Right. I appreciate what you're saying, and I'm not debating any of it.

But you're arguing around the edges.

If by some estimates the present measures should have waxed 40% of Russian GDP, they're way off. Why? All I'm saying is that does not happen without under-the-table-dealing. Who is involved and how?
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