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Message

re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 10/29/22 at 7:23 am to
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4705 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 7:23 am to
quote:

In light of all that, what do you make of the ruble's strength?


Artifical measures not actual demand

One example
quote:

BERAS: A serum known as capital controls - that's when a government or a central bank steps in to stop foreign capital - that's dollars and euros and yen - from flowing out of the country. And Elina says the capital controls adopted by the Kremlin took several forms.

RIBAKOVA: They more than doubled interest rate. And basically, they froze any dollars or euros you had in your bank account. It could have been any foreign bank or domestic bank. So you could no longer have access to it.

HIRSCH: The freeze extended to the ability of Russians to convert rubles into dollars.


quote:

BERAS: Government also targeted foreign investors who wanted to cash out of Russia.

RIBAKOVA: So if you make a phone call, I would like to sell Russian stocks and get my money out, they would say, you know what? We're not picking up that phone call.

HIRSCH: These measures - doubling interest rates, freezing accounts and restricting trading - they're not unheard of, but they're highly unusual. I mean, freezing accounts is the kind of thing that countries in really dire economic straits have done in the past. Argentina in 2001 is a good example. They do it to keep as much foreign currency in the country as possible.

BERAS: And in this case, it worked. The dollars and the euros stopped flowing out of Russia, which meant that it did indeed have the foreign currency it needed to service its foreign debt. That put a floor under the ruble and stopped it falling.

HIRSCH: The Kremlin then gave itself a second dose of serum. It ordered all Russian countries doing business overseas and getting paid in foreign currency to convert 80% of those revenues into rubles. This, of course, created instant demand and jacked the ruble higher.


LINK

And here's the fun thing, the strong currency is actually backfiring

quote:



A strong ruble hurts Russia by eating away at its income from oil and gas exports, which feeds into around 45% of its federal budget, according to the International Energy Agency.

Both those commodities are valued in dollars, or other non-ruble currencies, on international markets. So when Russia goes to convert its revenues back into rubles, to spend on things like pensions, a high exchange rate means it's losing money.

"From a budget perspective, the ruble's recent appreciation lowers dollar-linked, but ruble-denominated, oil and gas taxes," Dolgin said.

Russian policymakers are now scrambling to deliberately weaken the ruble. In July, the Bank of Russia slashed interest rates by 150 basis points to 8%, bringing them below pre-war levels.

"We're seeing the central bank cutting rates aggressively in an attempt to ease the pressure on the currency," Craig Erlam, a market analyst at foreign-exchange broker OANDA, told Insider.

Meanwhile, Moscow is reportedly considering a plan to spend up to $70 billion buying Chinese yuan and other "friendly" currencies, which it hopes will curb the ruble's rise.

But its ability to find foreign-exchange trading partners has been hampered significantly by Western sanctions, according to ING's Dolgin




LINK
This post was edited on 10/29/22 at 7:26 am
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4705 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 7:34 am to
quote:

Russian MoD reporting that Ukraine attacked Sevastopol with unmanned aerial and submersible drones early this morning. They claim all drones were destroyed but also that a Russian Natya class minesweeper, the 'Ivan Golubets' was damaged.


LINK

quote:

The British Navy specialists preparing the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the drone attack on Sevastopol took part in the planning, support and implementation of the terrorist attack to undermine the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines, the Russian Defense Ministry said.


LINK
Posted by Athanatos
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
8205 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 7:57 am to
If the Russians are saying that the damage was minimal, the mooring lines are probably the only thing keeping the damaged ships afloat.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
43016 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 8:26 am to
quote:

40% decline in AC/refrigerator manufacturing


But salvage businesses, pawn shops, and second hand stores are doing a record business.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8789 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 8:35 am to
Been a long couple days at work even I’m jet lagged and I do it for a living. Has anything changed or just a lot of bickering? TIA.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16428 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 8:48 am to
quote:

Been a long couple days at work even I’m jet lagged and I do it for a living.


Flying as a passenger was enjoyable once upon a time. I avoid it like the plague now.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5885 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 8:57 am to
several Sevastopol USV videos popping up on twitter...

Another episode of USV's attack in Sevastopol bay.
USV's approaching other frigates. Intensive helicopter fire. One of USV's just missed an auxiliary ship if it was a target.

Twitter
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8789 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 8:58 am to
I’m pretty much immune to it now but I’m coming off a head cold and had a transpacific to Seoul. You know it’s a long flight when the guy flying the plane gets jet lag lol. Got a couple days off and breathing the fresh mountain air at home this morning with my coffee though so it’s all good now.
This post was edited on 10/29/22 at 8:59 am
Posted by Mr Happy
Member since May 2019
2811 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 8:59 am to
From Twitter and multiple other sources:
quote:

Sources in the SBU confirm that as a result of night time explosions in Sevastopol, at least 3 Russian ships carrying “calibers” were damaged Among them is the frigate Admiral Makarov. There is a high probability that several ships are not just damaged, but sunk.
This post was edited on 10/29/22 at 9:07 am
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 9:08 am to
quote:

There is a high probability that several ships are not just damaged, but sunk.



All part of the plan, things are right on schedule.

Actually smart, if its too wet maneuver blow other shite up.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
140758 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 9:13 am to
quote:

StormyMcMan
Yeah. I read that interview. But it doesn't appear the fellow had a full grasp on the situation. Either that, or he was not quite on the up and up.

Translation, a central bank props up its national currency by removing a portion from circulation. i.e., As devaluation occurred in March, Russia demanded western countries pay for Russian hydrocarbon exports in Rubles. The central bank then could remove those from circulation. Russia considered other measures, such as negative interest rates on institution-held foreign denominations, but noninstitutional (private) holders who maintain about 23% of their assets in foreign denominations) balked over concern their ROI might end up rolled into the institutional play. So ttbomk Russia never went that route.

So here is the situation. At the war's outset there were 14.1T Rubles in circulation. That number increased to 14.9T at peak devaluation due in no small part to the SWIFT suspensions and asset seizures. But by July they were back to 14T Rubles in circulation.

In other words, with the same circulation Jan vs July, it doesn't look like central bank manipulation is the culprit. That's why I asked the question.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
140758 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 9:16 am to
quote:

And here's the fun thing, the strong currency is actually backfiring

All the more reason they'd not artificially prop it up. Right?
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 9:23 am to
quote:

All the more reason they'd not artificially prop it up. Right?



I'd like an economic expert (you or Roger) to explain how the loss of what was a somewhat robust foreign investment in Russia then went to zero in one day is a positive for Russia going forward.

Its almost as if if foreign investment there was looking for an excuse to get out.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8789 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 9:24 am to
Damn Russians need a sand bucket or something to put those cigarettes out. Pretty soon they won’t have a navy because of sailors having nicotine urges. I believe the Admiral Makarov is now the Black Sea fleet flagship after the Moskva went down am I correct?
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 9:29 am to
quote:

I believe the Admiral Makarov is now the Black Sea fleet flagship after the Moskva went down am I correct?




yeah thats a flag you dont want.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
140758 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 9:40 am to
quote:

I'd like an economic expert (you or Roger) to explain how the loss of what was a somewhat robust foreign investment in Russia then went to zero in one day is a positive for Russia going forward.
It isn't.

As far as I can ascertain the exodus effect should have been devastating (as much as 40% of GDP by some estimates) if it constituted a total loss. But that does not jibe with depth of the Russian recession. Experts now expect Russia's GDP to contract 2.9% in 2022 and 0.9% in 2023. There is obviously a chasm between 40% and 2.9%. The question is WTF is going on to account for the difference? Was Russia able to reassign many abandoned assets (i.e., Manufacturing plants, McDonald's locations, etc.) to domestic owners, and keep them operational?

Again, I don't know the answer. That's why I asked.
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 9:57 am to
What’s going to kill them is no foreign capital. They froze (seized) all foreign capital and nationalized (seized) all foreign corporeal assets.

Nobody is going back to Russia.

The rouble is riding cash oil sales which is ok short term.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8308 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 10:03 am to
'Massive' drone attack on Black Sea Fleet - Russia https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63437212

BBC story about attack
This post was edited on 10/29/22 at 10:04 am
Posted by TigerDoc
Texas
Member since Apr 2004
11960 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 10:07 am to
Now seeing reporting from Samuel Ramani that the Russian MoD now saying it’s stopping implementing the agreement to allow agricultural exports (presumably in response to this latest attack).
Posted by TacoNash
Member since Mar 2020
715 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 10:09 am to
quote:

Now seeing reporting from Samuel Ramani that the Russian MoD now saying it’s stopping implementing the agreement to allow agricultural exports (presumably in response to this latest attack).


Seeing the same thing

Russia suspends participation in Ukraine grain deal - TASS

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1586369961311629313?s=46&t=E6k-odr8FZKcfXObvsWa8g
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