re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The sad thing is this guy actually believes the bullshite he spews. What will they equip these 15 million people with? Rocks? Maybe they can take classes on how to make a spear out of a stick. And then of course no Russian propaganda would be complete without threatening to use a nuke.

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Right. I appreciate what you're saying, and I'm not debating any of it.

But you're arguing around the edges.

If by some estimates the present measures should have waxed 40% of Russian GDP, they're way off. Why? All I'm saying is that does not happen without under-the-table-dealing. Who is involved and how?

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But there are several factors:

1) We haven't seen the Q3 numbers. So there was a decent drop in GDP before oil was impacted. In fact Russia may have benefited from oil sales early on.
2) GDP goes up as manufacturing continues. Product could be going straight into inventory with no sales.
3) Military production probably kicked in early as they saw what a disaster the war was going to be.
4) As someone pointed out, Russia will fudge numbers and outright lie.

GDP numbers are just not made to be watched quarter by quarter. Too many factors and chances to fudge numbers that balance out on a year to year basis.

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The sad thing is this guy actually believes the bull shite he spews.

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No way he believes that. He's well educated and traveled.

Absolutely. You may have seen this, but the BBC's reporter covering Russian state TV managed to find this clip of Solovyev from 2008 in which he calls the idea of a war against Ukraine "the most terrible crime you can think of" and that anyone who would perpetrate it would be a criminal, and that instead of Russia threatening to seize Crimea by force that Russia should make life in Russia so attractive that Ukrainians & other former Soviet citizens "want to live in peace and come to us". This is basically a mirror image of the West's approach to Ukraine and Eastern Europe, but Putin obviously went in a different direction and Solovyev went with him.

LINK

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Russia must be blocking Telegram to prevent word getting out of how bad the disaster in Sevastopol is.

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That would make sense

I literally have nothing to base this on, but seeing as the fall conscription starts off on Nov 1, I think they are trying to block information as it'll probably go worse than the mobilization

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Solovyev from 2008

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He has put on some pounds, I mean kilograms in that 14 years.

Again it is clear he has followed a lot of talking heads in the West. He built up his credibility and audience with reasonable talking points then when he had enough clout to move the Overton window he started working for/with the powers that be. It is a good lesson to learn when listening to our pundits. They tell us what we want to hear and slowly shift our perception of the world. We get lulled in by them because so much of what they say is what we want to hear which makes us think they are brilliant because we think our ideas are clearly brilliant once hooked they slowly lead us to a new reality.

ISW Update

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Likely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanned surface vehicles on October 29.

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The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that Russia indefinitely suspended its participation in the United Nations-brokered grain export deal with Ukraine due to the attack on October 29.[6] Russia had been setting rhetorical conditions to withdraw from the deal for some time, however.

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The Kremlin reportedly relieved the commander of the Central Military District (CMD), Colonel General Alexander Lapin, of his position as the commander of the “central” group of forces in Ukraine

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ISW cannot independently confirm the reports of Lapin’s dismissal, but the deluge of conflicting reports may indicate that the Kremlin is struggling to control the narrative regarding its higher military command.

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Reports of Lapin’s dismissal further highlighted the fragmentation within the Russian pro-war community.

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Russian pro-war milbloggers have recognized that Western-provided HIMARS halted Russian offensive operations in northwestern Kherson Oblast in July.

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Russia is likely expediting efforts to forcibly depopulate areas of Kherson Oblast along the Dnipro River and repopulate them with Russian soldiers, some out of uniform in violation of the law of armed conflict

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The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is likely responding to pressure levied by milbloggers regarding its treatment of Russian prisoners of war (POWs) and the conduct of prisoner exchanges.

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Key Takeaways

Likely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanned surface vehicles on October 29.

The Kremlin reportedly relieved the commander of the Central Military District (CMD), Colonel General Alexander Lapin, of his position as the commander of the “central” group of forces in Ukraine.

Russia is likely expediting efforts to forcibly depopulate areas of Kherson Oblast along the Dnipro River and repopulate them with Russian soldiers, some of them out of uniform in violation of the law of armed conflict.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is likely responding to pressure levied by milbloggers regarding its treatment of Russian prisoners of war (POWs) and the conduct of prisoner exchanges.

Ukrainian forces consolidated gains and continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Ukrainian intelligence indicated that the highest quality Russian troops are still responsible for the defense of Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces continued to establish defensive positions on the western bank of the Dnipro River.

Russian forces likely slowed the pace of offensive operations in the Bakhmut area due to a Ukrainian strike.

Russian sources claimed that Russian troops launched an offensive in the Vuhledar area.

Russian troops likely made marginal gains around Donetsk City.

The Kremlin reportedly instructed Russian judges to not grant prisoners parole but instead to direct them toward recruitment in unspecified private military companies (PMCs).

The Kremlin is likely conducting an information operation to reduce tensions between Christians and Muslims in Russia to cater to religious minority groups within the Russian armed forces.

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That would be a big blow to Russia. Unlike the Moskva which was an older Soviet era ship, the Admiral Makarov has only been in service since 2017 so it’s one of their more modern ships.

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Who said that?! 40% of their budget/revenue. Not their GDP. And they’re selling their O&G but at greatly reduced prices. So even that’s not 40%

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DJFord

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Hey nitwit, next time you decide to play a jackass on this board, at least be 'brave' enough to do it with your actual username rather than an alter.

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Businesses are leaving Russia in droves, and foreign companies that have left previously accounted for 40% of GDP, the authors wrote.
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Almost posted that, I saw it on one of the NAFO Fella sites.