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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/19/22 at 11:43 am to DabosDynasty
Posted on 10/19/22 at 11:43 am to DabosDynasty
1
Posted on 10/19/22 at 11:44 am to Athanatos
quote:
I don’t see anything to suggest imminent retreat from Kherson. The FIRMS maps shows the fight is active there, but twitter and telegram aren’t offering much clarity.
No, I don't mean that it's today. But the "civilian evacuation" of Kherson city is clearly in preparation for a full Russian withdrawal north of the Dnipro (often called the right bank, as it's on the right as you travel down the river).
If you ignore the propaganda from both sides, you end up with pretty solid estimates that, as the war began, the populations of the regions that Russia has occupied this year break down something like:
- 60% favor Ukraine
- 20% don't care
- 20% favor Russia.
In a city with a pre-war population of over 400,000 people, we can assume that some 80,000 people supported Russia, and we can also assume that most of them are still there (unlike a great many of the Ukraine supporters).
In addition, we can assume that many of the "don't care" group were easily enticed to become collaborators.
Finally, there were thousands of civilians brought in from across Russia to help transition the city to Russian rule: schoolteachers, government administrators, etc. They brought in postal workers to switch people over to the Russian postal system, bank administrators to open branches of Russian banks, etc.
When Ukraine retakes this territory, a great many of these people will be treated as POWs or charged with treason. And a lot more of them simply want to live as Russians.
Russia needs most of those people need to get out now. Most of them are Russian assets. The PR damage from the fall of Kherson is going to be bad enough as it is, without Ukraine showing videos of crying Russian schoolteachers and bank tellers.
The Russian military has put itself in a no-win situation. With no intact bridges across the Dnipro, with the Kerch Bridge damage, and with Ukraine increasingly hitting pontoon bridges with HIMARS, they cannot supply their troops in the area.
Yet, they also have no way to evacuate properly. They can only take a few tanks and trucks across the river at a time on the pontoons, and when Ukraine gets within barrel artillery range, even those will become unusable.
TLDR: When Russia gives the order to retreat to the other side of the Dnipro, they will have a very narrow window to get as many troops and equipment across as possible. They need to get their civilians out of the way while they still can, and before they create an additional burden for an already impossible retreat across the river.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 11:48 am to CitizenK
quote:
it is a dilemma. I used to let stuff slide 10-15 years ago until I realized how many more ignorant and gullible people breathed daily than I could have ever imagined.
Yeah this is kind of the problem. You can see it on the PT board as it’s just changed into an echo chamber the last few years. The same lies and half truths get repeated over and over so much with nobody disputing things. Then it’s just considered a fact before long.
I’m sure it’s the same way on the Reddit channels and many liberal social media places
Posted on 10/19/22 at 11:53 am to CitizenK
quote:
Russia has offered voucher to purchase new homes in Russia if citizen opt to move to Russia
Russia has been losing population due to the reduced birth rate and other causes. They have kidnapped children from the occupied areas of Ukraine and placed them in Russian households, perhaps as family and perhaps as slave workers to be indoctrinated into the Soviet way of thinking.
By "evacuating" the civilian population of Ukraine to Russian controlled areas or to Russia proper, they provide themselves with a conscripted workforce for whatever purpose they may deem appropriate. By offering the conscripted Ukrainians vouchers for housing in Russia the conscripts are encouraged to stay in a safer environment wherein they will be "encouraged" to become contributing members of the struggling Russian society.
There can be no doubt that the Russian "evacuation" of civilians will be used to provide human shields for the retreating Russian military and, as such, the Ukrainians will be forced to not attack much of the Russian forces that are shielded by the civilians.
This post was edited on 10/19/22 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 10/19/22 at 1:10 pm to BayouBlitz
quote:
So Russia invades a sovereign nation, but we should help them avoid internal conflict? Let's support Putin!!
Holy fricking shite. Some of you have lost your gotdamned minds to the point you’re delusional. I’m not calling for supporting fricking Putin or Russia. I care more for the grime on the bottom of my boot than I do Putin or Russia. For fricks sake, this isn’t a fricking football game where we root for “our side” over the “opponent”.
Im not saying we need to appease Russia. What I’m saying is there needs to be diplomatic efforts to get Russia to see the wisdom in ending this war before shite spirals out of control and nukes either fall into the wrong hands or worse yet start getting launched.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 1:18 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The Russian military has put itself in a no-win situation. With no intact bridges across the Dnipro, with the Kerch Bridge damage, and with Ukraine increasingly hitting pontoon bridges with HIMARS, they cannot supply their troops in the area.
Putin is a wily bastard.
Drawing from recent Meduza reporting (English version or Google translate), Putin might offer to withdraw from a tenuously held Kherson as a gesture of goodwill in advance of a temporary ceasefire, but not a full-fledged peace treaty.
Having no plans to end the war, Putin would then use the ceasefire to try and reconstitute and prepare for a new offensive slated for FEB or MAR of 2023.
The Kremlin has supposedly been working the back channels with Western leaders and Erdogan in support of his objectives.
The Meduza reporting was cited by Lawrence Freedman's substack drop today, which highlights the difficulties in negotiating a permanent peace treaty under current conditions.
This post was edited on 10/19/22 at 1:46 pm
Posted on 10/19/22 at 1:28 pm to MNCTigah
That would be very unpopular inside of Russia. But, it is possible.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 1:31 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Im not saying we need to appease Russia. What I’m saying is there needs to be diplomatic efforts to get Russia to see the wisdom in ending this war before shite spirals out of control and nukes either fall into the wrong hands or worse yet start getting launched.
I hope there are diplomatic efforts too, but you have to know Putin won’t accept anything less than what he had pre-invasion and with Ukraine appearing to have the upper hand right now I don’t see that in the cards.
This post was edited on 10/19/22 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 10/19/22 at 1:34 pm to Chromdome35
I apologize if this has already been posted in the thread. I thought it was a great read about Ukraine's overall strategy and military leadership.
https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/a-tale-of-two-generals-how-the-ukrainian-military-turned-the-tide/
A tale of three generals — how the Ukrainian military turned the tide
https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/a-tale-of-two-generals-how-the-ukrainian-military-turned-the-tide/
A tale of three generals — how the Ukrainian military turned the tide
quote:
Since the beginning of their invasion, Russia’s military has been forced by the Ukrainians to continually re-assess their strategic objectives. This is not unusual in warfare. While political objectives shape how war is conducted and what battles are fought, so too do battles reshape political objectives. The Ukrainian resistance, and their defeat of the Russians in the north of the country early in the war, have unhinged the Russian overall campaign for Ukraine.
This has been the result of well-considered Ukrainian military strategy. I have previously described this approach as a strategy of corrosion. The Ukrainians, through a variety of indirect attacks, information operations, destruction of Russian logistics and commanders, and tough close combat, have embraced the corrosion of the Russian physical, moral, and intellectual capacity to fight.
British military historian and theorist, Basil Liddell Hart described this as the indirect approach. He wrote about how ‘effective results in war have rarely been attained unless the approach has had such indirectness as to ensure the opponents unreadiness to meet it.’
The Ukrainians have clearly studied this approach closely. They have attacked the weakest physical support systems of the Russian army in Ukraine — communications networks, logistic supply routes, rear areas, artillery and senior commanders in their command posts. In the initial Battles for Kyiv and Kharkiv, the Ukrainians were able to fight the Russians to a standstill because they were able to penetrate Russian rear areas and destroy parts of their logistic support. All of this also had a significant impact on Russian morale. The Ukrainians corroded the northern Russian expedition physical and morally from within and forced its withdrawal from Ukraine.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 1:43 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
What I’m saying is there needs to be diplomatic efforts to get Russia to see the wisdom in ending this war before shite spirals out of control and nukes either fall into the wrong hands or worse yet start getting launched.
Russia is using its propaganda machine to promote a "negotiated solution" to the conflict in the west while also promising to annihilate the Ukrainians (and the rest of the world) and take all of the land in its illegal annexations. The goal of their effort is to try to get outside forces to pressure the Ukrainians to surrender their resistance to Russia's land grab and conquest.
You are correct, Russia should "see the wisdom" in deescalating its war of conquest. Pressuring Ukraine does nothing to serve that end. It only serves to support Russia's conquest. Since Russia has no intent to "see the wisdom," what can Ukraine do besides either surrender or fight on?
Posted on 10/19/22 at 1:52 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
destruction of Russian logistics and commanders
The taking out of field command has long been known in the West for decades. It was definitely written about in two books, The Third World War: The Untold Story, Sir John Hackett, and also in Tom Clancy's Red Storm Rising.
Friends of mine even at the enlisted level in the USMC were trained to shoot commanders, from squad level, platoon level, and on up the line, from the 1970's through the fall of the USSR. The first target is the one with the antenna, back on those days. They were told that the troops under command would melt away from not knowing what to do.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 2:01 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
British military historian and theorist, Basil Liddell Hart described this as the indirect approach. He wrote about how ‘effective results in war have rarely been attained unless the approach has had such indirectness as to ensure the opponents unreadiness to meet it.’
Its what they have been doing in Kherson Oblast, no hurry keep the pressure on until you find a crack. Its even more effective when your opponent is the worst military in the history of modern warfare.
Kherson proper is a non starter for any negotiation it will fall soon.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 2:11 pm to GOP_Tiger
I said sometime way back in early summer around June that Russia was in a bad way with their logistics due to not having enough railway bearings and that they couldn’t produce more. Back then it was already estimated that 40-50% of all Russian rail cars were not able to be used due to the lack of bearings and they were scavenging from broken rail cars to keep the ones they have still moving. Seems like such a small element in such a big conflict but it is one that can have an absolutely massive effect on the war. Russia seems to be running low on a lot of things. They can’t even keep their T-72s repaired due to lack of replacement parts which is why they are pulling older made T-62 tanks out of storage and if they can’t keep their tanks in action then there’s no chance they can repair aircraft. Russia is using 50 year old trucks every time you turn on the TV it’s obvious they are from the Soviet era but Russia lives and dies on it’s ability to move equipment by rail. If that goes down they are finished. They have had to resort to buying low-tech Iranian drones to hit civilian infrastructure and take equipment from Belarus as well as artillery ammunition from a North Korea. They only have an estimated 20% of their Iskander missiles left which would be in the range of 160-180 missiles left. Yes Russia can inflict damage launching missiles and drones into Ukraine but they can’t keep it up for long. It’s becoming very obvious Russia is punching itself out. I think Ukraine has gotten into Putin and his commander’s heads with the counterattack in the north and the systematic strangulation of the garrison in Kherson by use of HIMARS constantly attacking it’s supply lines. It is absolutely amazing what 16 weapons systems, now 20, plus the M270s in country have done to completely put an army into retreat across a vast amount of its front lines. Russia just simply has no answer to them. Their counter battery radar systems only work up to around 10 miles so HIMARS is well outside of their capability to pick up their firing positions and even if they could make an educated guess on where the missile was shot from when it does come into their radar range, the HIMARS is already long gone by the time they can react.
This post was edited on 10/19/22 at 2:33 pm
Posted on 10/19/22 at 2:28 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:'
Im not saying we need to appease Russia. What I’m saying is there needs to be diplomatic efforts to get Russia to see the wisdom in ending this war before shite spirals out of control
Talking to Russians is impossible, it's like talking to a brick wall. Even fricking Navalny doesn't REALLY come out and flatly support Ukraine.
The Russians are a hopeless case. Like an alcoholic who won't stop drinking the "muh Russia" juice.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 2:35 pm to Duke
It’s only revalent to the sewage on the political board that wants to come and spout garbage.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 2:42 pm to SlimTigerSlap
Posted on 10/19/22 at 2:48 pm to Eurocat
No better show of force and air superiority than that black beauty right there (it’s actually charcoal grey in real life).
This post was edited on 10/19/22 at 3:03 pm
Posted on 10/19/22 at 2:55 pm to Eurocat
The B2 Bombers first flight was July 1989. That's crazy!
Posted on 10/19/22 at 2:58 pm to WeeWee
Lots of articles circulated about Kherson evacuation and pending attack at the moment:
BBC
“On Tuesday night, residents in Kherson started receiving text messages, urging them to evacuate immediately to avoid shelling of residential areas by Ukrainian forces.
The messages said transport across the Dnipro River would be available from 07:00 on Wednesday.”
Reuters
I have to imagine the Russians will just demolish and shell large swaths of the city once it has evacuated its assets and leave the Ukrainians with another rubble pile to liberate.
BBC
“On Tuesday night, residents in Kherson started receiving text messages, urging them to evacuate immediately to avoid shelling of residential areas by Ukrainian forces.
The messages said transport across the Dnipro River would be available from 07:00 on Wednesday.”
Reuters
quote:
Russian-installed authorities in the occupied Ukrainian region of Kherson said on Wednesday that they plan to evacuate around 50,000-60,000 people over the next six days amid escalating pressure from a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Russian-installed governor Vladimir Saldo said authorities were moving civilians to the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River in order to "keep people safe" and allow the military to "act resolutely".
I have to imagine the Russians will just demolish and shell large swaths of the city once it has evacuated its assets and leave the Ukrainians with another rubble pile to liberate.
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