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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/19/22 at 9:53 am to crazy4lsu
Posted on 10/19/22 at 9:53 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
I definitely don't know the best way to deal with these people, but I just can't stand the straight up propaganda they spout. It's fine to distrust our media and government, but you should be discerning with all media and governments too. There is no one in the current media ecosystem who even attempts to challenge these narratives and also no one who can suggest that their epistemological approach is flawed. There are real-world effects as well, like the personal example you used, and the numerous interactions I've had myself and I'm at a loss at how to approach it.
I totally understand. I used to be this way too and eventually I realized that it's okay to just let people be wrong. You aren't going to change their minds so you just have to let it go.
quote:
Regardless, I can take the blame too that my approach isn't the best one and obviously apologize for my part in derailing the thread. To be fair though, this derailing has corresponded with a lull in battlefield news.
That's true but in some ways that makes it worse because those that are aren't embroiled in the bickering have to scroll through pages and pages of nonsense to find one post with actual information in it.
Also I just want to say that I don't think most people in this thread (the adults anyway) want this to become an echo chamber. Other viewpoints are welcome and encouraged. But when the discussion gets to the point where both sides are unwilling to budge an inch then it degenerates into trench warfare and name-calling. That's when it's time to put an end to it.
0
Posted on 10/19/22 at 9:58 am to jeffsdad
I will continue to post them; however, with the amount of posting in the thread, people are going to have to look back for them as an hour after they are posted they're 20 pages back in the thread.
I'm digging out from under a mountain of email and work from being off for the last week.
I'm digging out from under a mountain of email and work from being off for the last week.
quote:
Hell yes. That's all we want.
They’re up there arguing about Fauci.
quote:
Yeah, but I've almost stopped checking for them. Admin has let politics take over. So, up to you. This is a OML thread.
quote:
Yes.
Now it's up to the mods to do their jobs and keep OML out of here. Whether that means permanently banned from the site is up to them. His frickery has gone on long enough.
quote:
Posted on 10/19/22 at 10:02 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Ukraine is nowhere near being able to conduct a contested river crossing at this point in time.
The goal would be to cross uncontested.
They have mobile bridging equipment but no engineers so they are training people but that is a skill that takes some time to learn. They have time, to take Kherson and clean it up will take weeks, then you have to stage for crossings and prep the other side which apparently they have been doing.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 10:16 am to Lakeboy7
quote:
The goal would be to cross uncontested.
They have mobile bridging equipment but no engineers so they are training people but that is a skill that takes some time to learn. They have time, to take Kherson and clean it up will take weeks, then you have to stage for crossings and prep the other side which apparently they have been doing.
If they take Kherson they could shore up their lines protecting for any counter attack from the Russians across the river. Personally I think they would then concentrate on Melitopol at that point, creating a large pincer that would force the Russians to retreat to Crimea or be trapped against the Dnipro to the north.
This post was edited on 10/19/22 at 10:19 am
Posted on 10/19/22 at 10:17 am to Lakeboy7
Marc Galeotti on the new martial law decrees and how there's more to them than just the 4 occupied oblasts and how local implementation may be contested (e.g. the Moscow mayor is saying he won't implement it):
LINK
quote:
Putin has just issued two presidential decrees on martial law, following an emergency meeting of the Security Council. A quick thread with some first thoughts about how this is in effect a declaration of variegated martial law across the whole of Russia.
In his prepared comments to the Security Council, Putin framed this as a response to Ukrainian “terrorism” as “The Kyiv regime…, refused to recognise the will and choice of the people” in occupied territories.
The Decree on the Introduction of Martial Law in the territories of the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions is pretty short and straightforward: martial law and all that implies.
The Decree On Measures taken in the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation in Connection with the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of October 19, 2022 No. 756 (what a snappy title) is in some ways more interesting.
In Crimea, Krasnodar, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kursk, and Rostov, a kind of martial law lite, allowing for curfews, movement controls, temporary resettlement _ the right to impose militarised regimes over certain industries. Massive opportunities for abuse needless to say.
Furthermore, heightened security provisions are introduced all across the Central and Southern Federal Districts, and slightly less serious ones everywhere else. In other words, some level of emergency regulation now applies across the whole of Russia.
Of course, quite what this means remains to be seen. It is framed as empowering local officials, and it will be interesting to see who uses them as Moscow wants, who essentially tries to ignore them, and who just uses it to embezzle all the more assiduously.
Moscow mayor Sobyanin, whose earlier announcement that mobilisation in the city was over was seen as a snub to the Kremlin, has already announced that at present he plans not to invoke any of the decree’s provisions.
This is esp interesting as Putin had asked Sobyanin, who heads the State Council commission on state and municipal management, to work with the Presidential Administration to oversee the decrees’ implementation.
This is all a big deal. I am minded of the spread of creeping martial law by extraordinary measures under late tsarism, such that by 1917 most of the country was ‘extraordinary.’ Not a great precedent.
LINK
This post was edited on 10/19/22 at 10:23 am
Posted on 10/19/22 at 10:18 am to mmcgrath
quote:
Melitopol
The real prize
Posted on 10/19/22 at 10:23 am to Lakeboy7
quote:
The goal would be to cross uncontested.
No, the goal is not to have to cross at all.
The impending Russian collapse in Kherson will be incredibly demoralizing to Russian troops. I'll be stunned if it doesn't result in thousands of Russian KIA and POW, and over 500 pieces of armor and heavy equipment. Once the retreat turns into a rout, there will simply be no way to evacuate troops and equipment. All Russia has are a few pontoon ferries that they dismantle, hide, and move around daily. But once those get in regular artillery range, the river crossings will just become a big kill zone.
The moment that happens is when I expect Ukraine to force a breakthrough to Tokmak and Melitopol. When that happens, they will take the rest of Kherson province without much of a fight.
Edit: mmcgrath said it while I was writing. The full collapse of Russian forces in the South is imminent.
This post was edited on 10/19/22 at 10:25 am
Posted on 10/19/22 at 10:26 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Chromdome35
Post the updates like you do. I will always dig to find the good info here, I just dont comment much on the actual war since its far from my area of expertise.
Thanks all who contribute on this end.
I also think the recent spell of political discussion is at least relevant. Its useful to be thinking of the political situation for Russia, Ukraine, and the Western countries. Its a political agreement that ends this in the end after all.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 10:27 am to TigerDoc
quote:
Moscow mayor Sobyanin, whose earlier announcement that mobilisation in the city was over was seen as a snub to the Kremlin, has already announced that at present he plans not to invoke any of the decree’s provisions.
Mr. Mayor, stay away from the windows.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 10:31 am to Duke
quote:
I also think the recent spell of political discussion is at least relevant. Its useful to be thinking of the political situation for Russia, Ukraine, and the Western countries. Its a political agreement that ends this in the end after all.
I agree war is just a physical manifestation of politics. Discussing the political dimensions is absolutely relevant.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 10:34 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I agree war is just a physical manifestation of politics.
Is that you Carl?
Posted on 10/19/22 at 10:34 am to GOP_Tiger
The problem with letting his crap pass is that the world, especially internet have revealed that there are a shitton more stupid people who believe such crap than I thought possible
Posted on 10/19/22 at 10:37 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
I definitely don't know the best way to deal with these people, but I just can't stand the straight up propaganda they spout.
it is a dilemma. I used to let stuff slide 10-15 years ago until I realized how many more ignorant and gullible people breathed daily than I could have ever imagined.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 10:53 am to GOP_Tiger
I don’t see anything to suggest imminent retreat from Kherson. The FIRMS maps shows the fight is active there, but twitter and telegram aren’t offering much clarity.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 10:56 am to Duke
quote:
I also think the recent spell of political discussion is at least relevant. Its useful to be thinking of the political situation for Russia, Ukraine, and the Western countries. Its a political agreement that ends this in the end after all.
That’s why there’s a political board.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 11:10 am to Athanatos
quote:
I don’t see anything to suggest imminent retreat from Kherson. The FIRMS maps shows the fight is active there, but twitter and telegram aren’t offering much clarity.
Russia has offered voucher to purchase new homes in Russia if citizen opt to move to Russia
Posted on 10/19/22 at 11:14 am to doubleb
quote:
That’s why there’s a political board.
I get it but theres a difference between what the war means for domestic US politics and the geopolitical considerations. The latter, I think, is relevant to the thread.
It tends to dominate the thread at times, which is the real problem in my estimation, but its relevant.
Alright, Ill leave you baws to sharin' your info and Imma get back to mostly reading.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 11:16 am to Duke
quote:
get it but theres a difference between what the war means for domestic US politics and the geopolitical considerations. The latter, I think, is relevant to the thread.
True
Good comment
Posted on 10/19/22 at 11:38 am to WDE24
quote:
What do you think is a suitable off ramp that makes sense for Ukraine and Russia?
I think that’s the question nobody really has an answer to on either side of the aisle so to speak between those panicking and those that see Ukraine shouldn’t stop now given current and recent state of the war in their favor.
I think most who are worried so much about the nukes and fallout propose solutions untenable for Ukraine, likely for good reason on the Ukrainian side. People wanting them to keep going tend to propose solutions that Putin will find untenable and/or potentially won’t be reached because of a nuclear approach when he’s got his back against the wall.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 11:41 am to Duke
quote:
Post the updates like you do. I will always dig to find the good info here, I just dont comment much on the actual war since its far from my area of expertise.
Thanks all who contribute on this end.
Same
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