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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 7/27/22 at 7:33 pm to
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16183 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 7:33 pm to
Ask Putin
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16183 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 7:35 pm to
F4 Phantoms
Posted by TBoy
Kalamazoo
Member since Dec 2007
28821 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 7:37 pm to
quote:

Wait until the new shift starts hitting the boards in roughly 5 hours. It’s only 3 am Moscow time right now…

No kidding. It’s simple clockwork. They will post five in a row directly from St. Petersburg, probably wondering why the only people responding at that hour are in the desk down the hall.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16183 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 7:38 pm to
Of course, it isn't legit, Russia violated an agreement to invade in 2014 right after Chevron, Exxon and Shell each signed multibillion dollar contracts to develop oilfields in Ukraine. This would have killed Russia's main market of Europe for Russia.
This post was edited on 7/27/22 at 7:58 pm
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8683 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 7:55 pm to
Ukraine got approval from Germany to buy 100 PzH 2000 self propelled howitzers.
Posted by TigerDoc
Texas
Member since Apr 2004
11915 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 7:58 pm to
The problem is Germany has to build 'em first.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8683 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 8:01 pm to
Yes. The order will take a couple years to fill completely.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4692 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 8:05 pm to
Isw update

quote:

Russian forces appear able to sustain only two significant offensive operations in Ukraine at this time, one attempting to seize Siversk and the other advancing on Bakhmut


quote:

Key Takeaways

Russian forces currently appear able to sustain only two significant offensive operations in Ukraine, both in Donetsk Oblast, and the Russian offensive remains likely to culminate before seizing additional significant population centers.

Ukrainian forces may have launched a localized counterattack southwest of Izyum.

Russian forces attacked settlements east of Siversk and northeast and southeast of Bakhmut.

Ground fighting is ongoing north of Kharkiv City.

Ukrainian forces struck the Antonivskyi Bridge for the third time in ten days on July 27, likely rendering it unusable.

The Mari El Republic north of Kazan sent two volunteer battalions to train and is forming a third battalion to deploy to Ukraine.

Russian occupation authorities are importing Russians to work in occupied territories due to a lack of Ukrainian collaborators.

Mariupol occupation authorities continue withholding humanitarian aid to force civilians to cooperate with and work for the occupation administration.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8683 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 8:39 pm to
Germany has delivered 3 M270 MLRS to Ukraine. That should bring the total so far to 16 HIMARS and 6 M270’s in country right now.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45765 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 8:58 pm to
quote:

Bullshite! There is no way Russia is giving discounts means less or no profits for them. If they were doing that then how could the RUB is the world's strongest currency right now? Russia has been giving $40 per barrel discounts to China, and India for months. Recently Saudi Arabia started buying at a discount. Keeping wells flowing is cheaper than even losing money in sales. shut in the wells and years before oil is flowing again.


You obviously didn’t catch the sarcasm.

quote:

Monday there will be a sudden increase in the # of tanker cars traveling the railroads from Russian into China. Rail instead of pipeline? This is just stupid economically at such distance at least $15 per barrel higher cost if not $20 It costs wayyyy more to use rail and one cannot transport as much.


It’s worth it for China. There have been rumors that the EU is really upset that China has been secretly supplying Russia with equipment to make war stuff. Also rumors that the EU is threatening to raise some tariffs on some Chinese goods. To prevent this from happening, China reduces its oil imports from Russia by pipelines. It makes it look like they are cracking down or abandoning Russia which appeases the Europeans. Meanwhile China continues to buy Russian oil at a discount but ships it by rail. China can afford the extra costs because it’s still less of an economic hit than higher tariffs in Europe.
Posted by LSUCanFAN
In the past
Member since Jan 2009
28100 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 9:29 pm to
Sorry to intrude but is anyone else hearing 57k Dead Russians?!? My friend in Russia texted that figure yesterday it’s going around like wildfire as an accurate Putin has seen it number.
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5996 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 9:32 pm to
“In a retrospective on the 100th day of the war, the UK Defense Ministry stated that Russian forces will likely establish control over Luhansk Oblast in the next two weeks, though only at significant further cost. The UK Defense Ministry further noted that Russian forces on all other axes have gone over to defensive operations to concentrate all available forces in Severodonetsk, and stated Russia will need to commit sizable investment of manpower and equipment—that it will be unable to generate quickly, if at all—to advance beyond Luhansk Oblast.”

Looking back, the UK’s take on the war on June 3 looks pretty accurate at the moment. Taking Luhansk took more than a couple weeks.

Reports I’m seeing now are using September as when Ukraine may be able to complete a counter offensive that retakes Kherson. I remain skeptical of that prospect but hopefully the more robust western weapons make that a reality.

Also the Washington Post has a good op-ed today on how we need to find our collective nuts and start acting like a nation with capabilities that lap russia in every conceivable way.
This post was edited on 7/27/22 at 9:46 pm
Posted by Kentucker
Rabbit Hash, KY
Member since Apr 2013
20055 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 9:37 pm to
They’ve just got to quit smoking near explosives.
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30717 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 9:45 pm to
quote:

You obviously didn’t catch the sarcasm.


Honestly, I had to read it twice and double-check who posted it. I then figured it was sarcasm, you had a stroke, or got hacked by the SVR aka Ruff Fish.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8683 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 9:54 pm to
Germany sent 3 more PzH 2000’s along with the 3 M270’s.
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
20931 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 10:03 pm to
quote:

Mariupol occupation authorities continue withholding humanitarian aid to force civilians to cooperate with and work for the occupation administration.


A lot of videos out there pointing to the opposite.
Posted by AGGIES
Member since Jul 2021
12658 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 11:04 pm to
I had also seen the discussion that Ukraine’s goal was taking control of Kherson by end of September. To me that would mean starting an offensive beginning in August. So I wonder if the bridge strikes are an indicator of anything else to come.

And I agree with the idea that we need to act like a nation with the capabilities to lap Russia. But that requires uniting and finding common ground instead of constant infighting.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16183 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 11:44 pm to
I recalculated, that puts Russia in the red if by rail and the present discount of $40. What's another $40 of freight, now we are around $20 per barrel. Far cheaper and no one can see oil running through a pipeline. Maxar among other satellite companies sees every train coming and going.

If by train from the Siberian oilfields the train must first travel Southwest before going South and then East along the Russian border with central Asian nations. Crude oil by rail is a logistical nightmare to begin with, compared to pipelines. and such a method makes zero sense at all except in fantasy land, or I want to lose money land.
This post was edited on 7/28/22 at 9:29 am
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8190 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 11:49 pm to
The Ukrainian plan is becoming clearer on the battlefield. Use the rivers to cut off the Russians and trap them on the battlefield.

Be interesting to see if they can pull it off

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1552247458855542786
quote:

This is my assessment of the road bridges in the Kherson area.

Blue = operational
Yellow = Unfit for for trucks and heavy equipment / Damaged
Red= Not fit for any kind of traffic.



quote:

The AFU has possibly isolated (or will do so in the future) the Kherson region from it's supply route and divided it in to two. I assume the two railway connections over the Dnipro will be incapacitated if they aren't already. I did see reports about the southern bridge being hit


quote:

This does not mean RuAF are completely isolated.
Any pontoon bridge would probably be targeted by the AFU. They can still use barges, helicopters and boats to transport supplies over the Dnipro. But this process will take more time, and be more vulnerable to attacks by the AFU.

When it comes to barges, there are not many areas with good road access on both sides of the river. Down by Kherson city, there is only one, it's right next to the Antonovskiy head.

My conclusion is, RuAF are not cut off, however their logistics system is going to have to do some problem solving. This will be even harder when taking HIMARS in to consideration, as they can not stockpile supplies on the south side of the Dnipro.

This post was edited on 7/27/22 at 11:54 pm
Posted by SirWinston
Say NO to War
Member since Jul 2014
104464 posts
Posted on 7/28/22 at 12:09 am to
Banner day, fellow Ukraine bros!

Our hero Chaim "Volodymyr" and his lovely wife Shoshanna "Olena" Zelenskyy bravely posed for Hadassah "Annie" Liebowitz and Vogue Magazine. The pictures are inspirational AF.

We are clearly on the right side of history and the isolationist "America First" bozos got BTFO!!

This post was edited on 7/28/22 at 1:09 am
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