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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/1/22 at 11:34 pm to Lima Whiskey
Posted on 7/1/22 at 11:34 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
There’s no way for us to win in Ukraine. It’s already over.
You’re conceding Russia is going to lose?!
0
Posted on 7/1/22 at 11:39 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
When Russia wins, it will severely diminish our prestige, and it will harm NATOs credibility. We will be called weak. China will test us.
This war has done nothing except more clearly delineate the gap between American and Russian military power. The Russians tried to fake it for twenty years after Chechnya, and this was the final product. Most analysts prior to the war had them as something of a half-near peer or maybe a generation or so behind us. It has turned out that they are not a serious threat at all, are 2 - 3 generations behind us and falling further back, and are more akin to a Brazil or Mexico militarily than a serious global threat. This is about what it would look like if Brazil had tried to invade Argentina.
The Chinese understand that better than anyone, and they rather fully appreciate American military power more than ever now. This likely delayed any test by half a decade or more, thanks to Russia’s clownish capability.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 11:52 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
The difference is we can’t afford to lose Taiwan and it’d be a far, far more difficult invasion than Russia invading Ukraine. In the very least China would need an initial invasion force at least four times the amount we used at D-Day and possibly as high as ten times that number. They can not land on the west coast since they are largely cliff faces, so they have to go around and land on the east coast. And Taiwan will know long in advance of the invasion with time to prepare. One historian has said it’d be the most difficult invasion since Hannibal crossed the Alps. That’s what we’re dealing with here.
Sounds expensive.
quote:
While we’re trying this, the truth of the matter is we don’t have the secret ingredient to Taiwan’s success, nor will they give it to us under any circumstances. It’s what is keeping them alive. Yeah, they’ll let us know shite they discovered a decade ago, but not their current knowledge. Doing so will lead to their own destruction, so they keep their chip information extremely close to the chest. Our chip facilities when they’re built will be two generations behind since that’s all we know.
The hell do you mean? It's not some magic elixir dude. And if the Taiwanese object for some reason, we should reply with this meme, since I assume they will be moved as easily as you are by the appearance of words on an image. Obviously something deeply powerful, much like Taiwan's magic chip elixir.
quote:
We nor the Chinese can catch up to them. They know what they have and it’s precious. They’re not giving that up under any circumstances. Their knowledge protects them, and divulging it would destroy the country.
Didn't I already describe you defining things as though you are in a movie? Wasn't it on page 1184 where you ignored my initial post, replied with a glib meme, and then pretended during this discussion I never broached it? Regardless, your description is retarded.
quote:
bullshite it’s nonsensical. If it weren’t for the chips and infrastructure they were after, China would have invaded Taiwan already solely because of this. Look at all the islands around them. Taiwan gives them a straight shot to the Pacific when they don’t have that now having to deal with Taiwan and Japan on the way out. This is a major reason they want Taiwan.
What are they going to do? Develop a complex bureaucracy a la the late Byzantine Empire at Constantinople, which angered traders and merchants, and leading to the sacking of the city in 1204? And also what happened to the shallow seas argument. You straight up stole my own argument that I made in response to you.
quote:
What other choice do we have? They're not giving up their chip technology to us. Sure they’ll tell us some shite 2015, but they’re not going to tell us what they know now.
Do you think the Taiwanese are designing their own chips or something? Do you think they are whispering into the silicon itself?
Honestly, I'm surprised you haven't mentioned Dune yet. Let me give this a try. The Taiwanese are obviously the Fremen. The worms are obviously an anthropomorphized process that results in silicone oxide, although I'm cool with pretending there are gigantic worms shitting out silicon oxide into the crust of this gay-arse Earth and possibly eating people. The spice is obviously silicon. The Harkonnen are obviously the Chinese. The emperor is obviously a still alive Bin Laden. The Russians are the Sardukar. House Atreides is obviously America. Famous Taiwanese director Ang Lee, whose films encapsulate space and time, is obviously the Kwisatz Haderach. The Bene Gesserit is obviously any random group of gothic transexuals. You are obviously Duncan Idaho, named for a backwater state, the memory of which survived many millennia by virtue of its mellifluousness or some shite. Zelensky is Dr. Yueh.
Nailed it.
This post was edited on 7/2/22 at 12:10 am
Posted on 7/2/22 at 12:20 am to OMLandshark
quote:Ah right, just give them a slap on the arse and a "go get 'em, tiger".
We needed to support them at the bare minimum that Russia didn’t roll over them. Just give Ukraine a little push to prevent that. We’ve done our moral obligation as far as I’m concerned.
It's more than just a moral obligation, we made an agreement. It's also selfishly quite good bang for the buck.
Posted on 7/2/22 at 12:37 am to crazy4lsu
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/17/26 at 10:27 pm
Posted on 7/2/22 at 12:40 am to OMLandshark
quote:
While we’re trying this, the truth of the matter is we don’t have the secret ingredient to Taiwan’s success
quote:What knowledge do you think TSMC has that Intel and Samsung do not?
Yeah, they’ll let us know shite they discovered a decade ago, but not their current knowledge.
Posted on 7/2/22 at 12:42 am to Korkstand
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/17/26 at 10:27 pm
Posted on 7/2/22 at 12:55 am to OMLandshark
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/17/26 at 10:26 pm
Posted on 7/2/22 at 12:55 am to OMLandshark
quote:They don't have any special knowledge of chip manufacturing, all they have is a solid business model that works for them.
The frick if I know
Intel and Samsung's fabs are pretty much on par with TSMC. The real innovator here might be the Dutch company ASML which is where I believe all chip fabs get their most advanced photolithography machines.
Posted on 7/2/22 at 12:58 am to Korkstand
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/17/26 at 10:26 pm
Posted on 7/2/22 at 1:12 am to OMLandshark
quote:All these companies guard their tech, but neither Intel nor Samsung are "two generations" behind TSMC, whatever that means to you.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think this is true. I’ve heard they’re keeping their tech extremely close to their chests and won’t give us any information to make chips and semiconductors anything higher than two generations behind what they are capable of creating.
Assuming this is based on process tech labels such as "7nm" or "3nm", those are largely marketing moreso than meaningful numbers. For example, Intel's 10nm process is more transistor-dense than TSMC's 7nm process. For this reason, Intel has changed the naming scheme for the process techs, what used to be "7nm" is now "Intel 4" because it is equivalent to the "4nm" processes at TSMC and Samsung.
TSMC's "special sauce" is they have configured their fabs to service "fabless" companies, so they can do short runs or big production runs, and use different processes, on pretty short timeframes and at little retooling cost. They don't even really design their own chips.
So yes, it would hurt quite a bit if China tries to take Taiwan, especially if Taiwan destroys their own fabs going down with the ship. And supply chains in almost every industry would of course be severely disrupted. But chips can be and are made elsewhere, and we wouldn't be losing years or generations of tech advancement if TSMC went away or is taken by China. Much less "total societal and economic collapse".
This post was edited on 7/2/22 at 1:24 am
Posted on 7/2/22 at 2:09 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
When Russia wins, it will severely diminish our prestige, and it will harm NATOs credibility.
The only thing diminished, is the perception that Russia has a military that is relevant.
Posted on 7/2/22 at 7:27 am to Korkstand
Bingo, when I was liquidating a plant for Dow Chemical's subsidiary Intarsia 20 years ago from Silicon Valley, I found out a few things.
1. Just about any chip can be designed and made for maybe $100
2. Technology was sold for South Korean and Taiwanese plants to produce massively more than those of Silicon Valley. The foreign engineers trained on Silicon Valley production lines which by 2000 had become pilot plant sized compared to Asian ones.
3. I was not allowed to sell anything to Arizona State because Dow was working with UT Arlington in bidding for military R&D contracts. Those two were the finalists.
5. The computer/digital technology market is all about being in production at the right time. Target to enter is within 3 months. If a company is to early, it spent too much money. If a company enters the market a week late, all market share has been taken. Dow had invested $50 million which was written off. Not a big deal to them due profit if target hit would have been massive. Dow wanted to be in the market for profit margins in its supplied of ultra high purity chemicals by the flask in Midland, MI.
It's all about the market and entering at the right time to get market share for a specific product line.
1. Just about any chip can be designed and made for maybe $100
2. Technology was sold for South Korean and Taiwanese plants to produce massively more than those of Silicon Valley. The foreign engineers trained on Silicon Valley production lines which by 2000 had become pilot plant sized compared to Asian ones.
3. I was not allowed to sell anything to Arizona State because Dow was working with UT Arlington in bidding for military R&D contracts. Those two were the finalists.
5. The computer/digital technology market is all about being in production at the right time. Target to enter is within 3 months. If a company is to early, it spent too much money. If a company enters the market a week late, all market share has been taken. Dow had invested $50 million which was written off. Not a big deal to them due profit if target hit would have been massive. Dow wanted to be in the market for profit margins in its supplied of ultra high purity chemicals by the flask in Midland, MI.
It's all about the market and entering at the right time to get market share for a specific product line.
Posted on 7/2/22 at 7:29 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 2 July 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Russian forces continue to achieve minor advances around Lysychansk, with air and artillery strikes continuing in the district. Ukrainian forces probably continue to block Russian forces in the south-eastern outskirts of Lysychansk.
Russia continues to employ air-launched anti-ship missiles in a secondary land attack role, likely because of dwindling stockpiles of more accurate modern weapons. Analysis of CCTV footage shows the missile that impacted the Kremenchuk shopping centre on 27 June 2022 was highly likely a Kh-32. This is an upgraded version of the Soviet era Kh-22 KITCHEN.
Although the Kh-32 has several performance improvements over the Kh-22, it is still not optimised to accurately strike ground targets, especially in an urban environment. This greatly increases the likelihood of collateral damage when targeting built up areas.
Further strikes on 30 June 2022 in Odesa Oblast likely involved Kh-22 KITCHEN missiles. These weapons are even less accurate and unsuitable for precision strikes and have almost certainly repeatedly caused civilian casualties in recent weeks.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 2 July 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Russian forces continue to achieve minor advances around Lysychansk, with air and artillery strikes continuing in the district. Ukrainian forces probably continue to block Russian forces in the south-eastern outskirts of Lysychansk.
Russia continues to employ air-launched anti-ship missiles in a secondary land attack role, likely because of dwindling stockpiles of more accurate modern weapons. Analysis of CCTV footage shows the missile that impacted the Kremenchuk shopping centre on 27 June 2022 was highly likely a Kh-32. This is an upgraded version of the Soviet era Kh-22 KITCHEN.
Although the Kh-32 has several performance improvements over the Kh-22, it is still not optimised to accurately strike ground targets, especially in an urban environment. This greatly increases the likelihood of collateral damage when targeting built up areas.
Further strikes on 30 June 2022 in Odesa Oblast likely involved Kh-22 KITCHEN missiles. These weapons are even less accurate and unsuitable for precision strikes and have almost certainly repeatedly caused civilian casualties in recent weeks.
Posted on 7/2/22 at 7:47 am to OMLandshark
quote:
For y’all, I don’t know. But for me:
So complete and utter anarchy. Glad you now see why at minimum greatly slowing Putin’s ambitions is so important and worth $57 billion and zero American casualties.
quote:
A lot of gibberish to defend your bull shite.
It’s quite simple
Posted on 7/2/22 at 7:48 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
When Russia wins, it will severely diminish our prestige, and it will harm NATOs credibility.
We will be called weak.
China will test us.
Posted on 7/2/22 at 7:53 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:The price we pay to be on top of the world. Isolation is not a choice.
We interject ourselves into every world situation and wonder why we are hated. Its because we are the biggest bully on the block.
Posted on 7/2/22 at 7:55 am to WestCoastAg
quote:
#Ukraine: "Something" hit a Russian ammunition storage point in the vicinity of #Popasna, with dramatic results. LINK
Posted on 7/2/22 at 7:59 am to StormyMcMan
This war of attrition is going to start getting ugly if it hasn't already.
Yes LW et al we know Ukraine has similar issues, just pointing out one instance
quote:
??Students of so-called "Academy of Ministry of Internal Affairs of #DPR" are going to send to the front
It is reported that they want to send students to frontline without providing any documents.
Parents are protesting and trying to get information about future of children. LINK
Yes LW et al we know Ukraine has similar issues, just pointing out one instance
This post was edited on 7/2/22 at 8:00 am
Posted on 7/2/22 at 8:28 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Students of so-called "Academy of Ministry of Internal Affairs of #DPR" are going to send to the front
If they want to be part of Russia, they must live like Russians.
For a couple days, at least.
This post was edited on 7/2/22 at 8:29 am
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