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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:11 pm to
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
108578 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:11 pm to
quote:

No one has been able emulate Pringles. America can make the best chips. We just choose to outsource


Lay’s Stacks are better than Pringles.
Posted by Abstract Queso Dip
Member since Mar 2021
5878 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:13 pm to
Only a Russian sympathizer would say that.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
36311 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:13 pm to
quote:

A) The chips and semiconductors that are made there that no one has been able to emulate. That is the world’s new oil/gold.



It's good then that Intel announced it was opening two new plants in Ohio then. Also I'm skeptical that we can't emulate them, as we still lead the world in terms of research, but we are probably years away from mastering the manufacturing process, which would be true of any industry where the US similarly dominated research and development but not the actual manufacturing.

I think it is dangerous to make it the case that Taiwan's importance is dependent on a specific industry, because that runs the possibility they can hamper domestic industry through lobbying.

quote:

B) It’s in the dead center of the world’s busiest trade route.



Is it really the biggest? LINK

I'm honestly asking because I can see 'busyness' measured by different metrics.

quote:

China is navally boxed in thanks to Taiwan and additionally Chinese coastlines make it nearly impossible to launch submarines. Taiwan’s east coast is great for that though and will open up the Pacific for them.



What exactly is in the way in terms of their submarine base outside Qingdao? Just Okinawa?
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
19274 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:16 pm to
quote:

The battalion commander shrugged helplessly when we advised him that five days was a completely inadequate amount of time in which to train his soldiers. “This is all we have—they are needed on the front,” he replied with grim finality.


quote:

A few days later, on a separate course that we were running for his medics, half of our class disappeared on the second day. “We have had casualties,”


quote:

Even in units that fall within the Ukrainian special operations command, most soldiers are sent to the front line with very little training. In one such unit, we estimated that just 20 percent had even fired a weapon before heading to combat.


quote:

Each anecdote by itself a data point, but together they tell a story that belies the relentless optimism that has pervaded Ukrainian representation of the war from the outset. After four months of grinding attrition, the Ukrainian army is facing a manpower shortage.


LINK /

Col. Andrew Milburn USMC

Article at Westpoints Modern War Institute
This post was edited on 7/1/22 at 9:53 pm
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5179 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:19 pm to
quote:

You haven’t thought through the alternative of a more fricked up supply chain and less crops to feed the world. This should be a major concern for everyone.


The alternative is letting Russia take all of Ukraine, starve the Ukrainians, and sell the wheat to improve their own positioning over energy and food exports. Not like they don’t have a history of such with the very same people. The same people who have been known to shut off the spigot on a whim? By this logic we’d just let them take over the other former Soviet satellites again and control even more O&G, grain crops, fertilizer, and the worlds leading uranium miner. Where do you take a stand before it’s too late and they’ve gained significantly more leverage to disrupt vital supply chains on a whim as leverage? This pacifism is what lead to WWII you keep freaking out we’re going to repeat.

quote:

I seriously thought about it, but couldn’t get the ball rolling and not enough people would have shown up.


So just as much pussy as anyone else in here not donating money directly to the IRS for the govt to piss away on something else besides what you asked them to?

quote:

Ummm, you’re using 45 years as the bar against 4 months? Are you shitting me? No those are time tables that can’t be compared. What if this is going on in a year or two? What then? Keep sending them billions? Because I’m sure we’ll find quite a few more suitcases with 30 million dollars inside of it that we gave to them.


In 4 months we’ve very much aided in more Russian KIA and equipment losses than in the 10 years they were at war with Afghanistan, whom we aided. How much Russian equipment destruction and loss of military life did we help cause between 1945 and 1991 vs the last 4 months?
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5179 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:22 pm to
quote:

Yeah, the good news is it’s not looking like my worst case scenario is going to play out in the very near future. The bad news is this isn’t worth a blank check to Ukraine which we have basically given them.


Seems you’re more than willing to give a blank check to Taiwan. This blank check is possibly preventing the other and all the greater suffering that comes with it. You shouldn’t have a problem with this in this line of thinking.
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
108578 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:26 pm to
quote:

It's good then that Intel announced it was opening two new plants in Ohio then. Also I'm skeptical that we can't emulate them, as we still lead the world in terms of research, but we are probably years away from mastering the manufacturing process, which would be true of any industry where the US similarly dominated research and development but not the actual manufacturing.

I think it is dangerous to make it the case that Taiwan's importance is dependent on a specific industry, because that runs the possibility they can hamper domestic industry through lobbying.


America producing them isn’t as much of an advantage as you think it is unfortunately. Taiwan keeps their secrets close to the chest, which also prevents China from invading them since they sure as shite don’t want that knowledge destroyed.

What these chip factories in the US are going to make are chips and semiconductors two generations behind what the Taiwanese are capable of creating. So it won’t be an apples to apples comparison. Granted we have to do it for the worst case scenario, but Taiwan will not indulge its secrets to their detriment.

quote:

Is it really the biggest? LINK

I'm honestly asking because I can see 'busyness' measured by different metrics.


No those are the busiest channels and canals. The South China Sea is by far the busiest trade route in the world, and they have to go past Taiwan’s east coast if they’re heading to the Americas. No they’re not going between Taiwan and China for this.

Do you know how much of the world’s cargo goes through the South China Sea? 1/3rd. Three trillion dollars in cargo goes through the South China Sea every year. It is difficult to underestimate Taiwan’s importance in this.

quote:

What exactly is in the way in terms of their submarine base outside Qingdao? Just Okinawa?


From my understanding, China’s coasts are shallow. Taiwan when it goes into the Pacific goes off a cliff. Sure you can find some place in China to launch certain submarines, but submarines have been a problem for China to utilize thanks to this.
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
108578 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:31 pm to
quote:

Where do you take a stand before it’s too late and they’ve gained significantly more leverage to disrupt vital supply chains on a whim as leverage?


If they attack a member of NATO. I’ve said this is my line multiple times today.

quote:

This pacifism is what lead to WWII you keep freaking out we’re going to repeat.


The difference is Hitler had a book that directly told you everything he was going to do. Putin’s plans are way more simple and far less genocidal than Hitler’s vision.

quote:

So just as much pussy as anyone else in here not donating money directly to the IRS for the govt to piss away on something else besides what you asked them to?


Didn’t think I’d make much of a difference alone. Choose your battles wisely.

quote:

In 4 months we’ve very much aided in more Russian KIA and equipment losses than in the 10 years they were at war with Afghanistan, whom we aided. How much Russian equipment destruction and loss of military life did we help cause between 1945 and 1991 vs the last 4 months?


I don’t know but your point “Yeah we’ve spent less in four months than we did in 45 years.” Yeah it better be, or else I’m going to get way more pissed.
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
108578 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:32 pm to
quote:

Seems you’re more than willing to give a blank check to Taiwan. This blank check is possibly preventing the other and all the greater suffering that comes with it. You shouldn’t have a problem with this in this line of thinking.


With Taiwan, while saving the people is a major perk, it’s not about that. It’s about preserving the world order and the status of every life around the world. It’s a much different and difficult scenario than what we’re dealing with in Ukraine.
Posted by Abstract Queso Dip
Member since Mar 2021
5878 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:35 pm to
So you value the people in Taiwan more than the people that are being murdered. That's fascinating.
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
108578 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

So you value the people in Taiwan more than the people that are being murdered. That's fascinating.


No, I value what they create more than what the people in Ukraine create. I’m sorry, but that’s just a basic fact, and sorry you don’t like it.
Posted by Abstract Queso Dip
Member since Mar 2021
5878 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:43 pm to
Do you like tech nerds more than farmers. Okay. Now I understand your stance.
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
108578 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:46 pm to
quote:

Do you like tech nerds more than farmers. Okay. Now I understand your stance.


It doesn’t matter who I like more. My question is what is going to lead to chaos. And I’ve had no shortage of criticism in this thread against methods that will result in food shortages.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
36311 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:48 pm to
quote:

America producing them isn’t as much of an advantage as you think it is unfortunately. Taiwan keeps their secrets close to the chest, which also prevents China from invading them since they sure as shite don’t want that knowledge destroyed.


I'm pretty sure that Taiwan set up its own industry due to a close relationship with Philips and the Dutch Government in the 1980s. It's hard to believe that we can research and design so many important inventions and wouldn't be able to produce high-quality chips. The US has a distinct advantage over other nations in materials engineering from what I've read, though that may be outdated information.

quote:

No those are the busiest channels and canals. The South China Sea is by far the busiest trade route in the world, and they have to go past Taiwan’s east coast if they’re heading to the Americas. No they’re not going between Taiwan and China for this.



No the link says they represent the busiest trade routes. Also I looked at your link, and found the link that it was based on here but I haven't found a direct citation in that document for that specific claim. The 2021 version of this report makes no mention of the South China Sea. LINK

I can believe that it represents a large amount of trade though, but would just like to know how we are measuring such a thing.

quote:

From my understanding, China’s coasts are shallow. Taiwan when it goes into the Pacific goes off a cliff. Sure you can find some place in China to launch certain submarines, but submarines have been a problem for China to utilize thanks to this.


What's the difference between a deep water harbor necessary for shipping and one needed for a submarine base? I think China has plenty of deep water ports, but the presence of the American base on Okinawa seems to be more of a problem than it is access to deep water ports. Then desire for unimpeded access to the Pacific proper makes sense, as control of entry points at both the southern and northern ends by rivals is a more legitimate reason for wanting access than the idea they have a lack of to deep water ports.
This post was edited on 7/1/22 at 9:53 pm
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
36311 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:51 pm to
quote:

With Taiwan, while saving the people is a major perk, it’s not about that. It’s about preserving the world order and the status of every life around the world. It’s a much different and difficult scenario than what we’re dealing with in Ukraine.



But didn't you say that Russia's performance in Ukraine directly affected how China would approach Taiwan in the future? By that metric, isn't the cost worth it, if Taiwan is so important to you?
Posted by Abstract Queso Dip
Member since Mar 2021
5878 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:53 pm to
Chaos already exists. Are you suggesting Russians are gonna invalid Taiwan after they secure Ukraine?
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
108578 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:54 pm to
quote:

But didn't you say that Russia's performance in Ukraine directly affected how China would approach Taiwan in the future? By that metric, isn't the cost worth it, if Taiwan is so important to you?


I still want Ukraine to win even if I don’t think it’s going to happen, but yeah they’ve stopped that. I’m for all practical means to help them out, but not to the point of risking WWIII. The Ukrainians have fought valiantly and should be commended. We’re still not the world police though.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
28709 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:54 pm to
quote:

quote:

fact of the matter is that we have enormous power
Because we meddle, a lot.
No, we have power because we are rich and well-educated on the whole and most importantly respected by most of the world. And if you think stopping the "meddling" means reneging on the mutually-beneficial agreements that we've made, then how do you think things are supposed to work? Do you have a problem with responsibility?
quote:

The biggest difference between liberals and progressives, Liberals weren't war mongers.
I don't really care what you call me, but the people supporting Ukraine are not war-mongers. They realize that Putin won't stop until he is stopped. You do know the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun, right?
Posted by Breauxsif
Member since May 2012
22290 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:54 pm to
You really need to smoke a bowl, and relax. You’re still on the fence about there being a less than 12% chance WWIII will happen over this war. Are you still concerned that the Russians will use a tactical, nuclear missile against Ukraine?
This post was edited on 7/1/22 at 9:57 pm
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
28709 posts
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:58 pm to
quote:

I’m also ineligible for combat due to a birth defect
Do you think some posters will feel bad for how they've treated you when they find out your birth defect affects your mental faculties?
This post was edited on 7/1/22 at 9:59 pm
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