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1
Posted on 7/1/22 at 10:03 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
I'm pretty sure that Taiwan set up its own industry due to a close relationship with Philips and the Dutch Government in the 1980s. It's hard to believe that we can research and design so many important inventions and wouldn't be able to produce high-quality chips. The US has a distinct advantage over other nations in materials engineering from what I've read, though that may be outdated information.
I have a rudimentary understanding of it, but from what I’ve been told is China has a problem with launching subs due to their coastline and ocean floor being very shallow. You can see it pretty clearly on this map and notice a major drop off on Taiwan’s east coast:
quote:
No the link says they represent the busiest trade routes. Also I looked at your link, and found the link that it was based on here but I haven't found a direct citation in that document for that specific claim. The 2021 version of this report makes no mention of the South China Sea. LINK
I can believe that it represents a large amount of trade though, but would just like to know how we are measuring such a thing.
Dude, this is a basic fact that is well known to anyone in logistics. The South China Sea is by far the busiest trade route in the world. The English Channel doesn’t even come fricking close to it. This image alone disproves that:
What’s in the dead center of that circle? Oh right the South China Sea. I’m sorry, this is not arguable. This very, very well known.
quote:
What's the difference between a deep water harbor necessary for shipping and one needed for a submarine base? I think China has plenty of deep water ports, but the presence of the American base on Okinawa seems to be more of a problem than it is access to deep water ports. Then desire for unimpeded access to the Pacific proper makes sense, as control of entry points at both the southern and northern ends by rivals is a more legitimate reason for wanting access than the idea they have a lack of to deep water ports.
It’s possible, but from that map above, China clearly has much more shallow seas than most other places.
This post was edited on 7/1/22 at 10:07 pm
Posted on 7/1/22 at 10:04 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
I still want Ukraine to win even if I don’t think it’s going to happen, but yeah they’ve stopped that.
The logical position you've put yourself in is curious.
So in that respect, supporting Ukraine directly has been completely worth it if it leads to China completely rethinking their approach to Taiwan, correct?
Here's what you've said. You said that spending money on Ukraine isn't worth it because the Russians are going to win. At the same time, the performance of the Ukrainians and the support they've gotten from the developed world has made China rethink its approach to Taiwan. Taiwan is far more important to you than Ukraine, but you've made a direct connection between Ukraine and Taiwan.
In other words, Taiwan represents a far more important geopolitical position than Ukraine. Your initial worry that Russia's invasion of Ukraine would embolden the Chinese to take Taiwan was assuaged as China saw the response from the developed world to the Russian invasion. At the same time, you insist that giving any money to the Ukrainians is a waste because they are likely to lose, despite the benefit you yourself admit with regards to China and Taiwan. In those terms, don't you think withdrawing aid will also have an effect on the China and Taiwan, if we are following the logic you've suggested?
Posted on 7/1/22 at 10:10 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
The logical position you've put yourself in is curious.
So in that respect, supporting Ukraine directly has been completely worth it if it leads to China completely rethinking their approach to Taiwan, correct?
We needed to support them at the bare minimum that Russia didn’t roll over them. Just give Ukraine a little push to prevent that. We’ve done our moral obligation as far as I’m concerned.
quote:
Here's what you've said. You said that spending money on Ukraine isn't worth it because the Russians are going to win. At the same time, the performance of the Ukrainians and the support they've gotten from the developed world has made China rethink its approach to Taiwan. Taiwan is far more important to you than Ukraine, but you've made a direct connection between Ukraine and Taiwan.
I mean Ukraine is to Russia as Taiwan is to China. It’s not a hard connection to make. The difference is Taiwan is far more important to the world as a whole than Ukraine is.
quote:
In other words, Taiwan represents a far more important geopolitical position than Ukraine. Your initial worry that Russia's invasion of Ukraine would embolden the Chinese to take Taiwan was assuaged as China saw the response from the developed world to the Russian invasion. At the same time, you insist that giving any money to the Ukrainians is a waste because they are likely to lose, despite the benefit you yourself admit with regards to China and Taiwan. In those terms, don't you think withdrawing aid will also have an effect on the China and Taiwan, if we are following the logic you've suggested?
The world’s not fair. I’m sorry, I have friends in Ukraine fighting right now, but I think we’ve done all we can practically do at this point. Yeah we had the obligation to help Ukraine and give them a chance to fight. But I’m not for risking WWIII for Ukraine.
This post was edited on 7/1/22 at 10:14 pm
Posted on 7/1/22 at 10:16 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
I have a rudimentary understanding of it, but from what I’ve been told is China has a problem with launching subs due to their coastline and ocean floor being very shallow. You can see it pretty clearly on this map and notice a major drop off on Taiwan’s east coast:
It might be shallow, but one of the major submarine bases for the US is in the Puget Sound, which has an average depth of 450 ft. Even though the East China Sea is shallow, it's average depth is 660 ft. I'm just skeptical this is a prevailing reason.
quote:
Dude, this is a basic fact that is well known to anyone in logistics. The South China Sea is by far the busiest trade route in the world. The English Channel doesn’t even come fricking close to it. This image alone disproves that:
Yeah all I asked for was a more specific source. I would have posted this though.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 10:19 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
The world’s not fair. I’m sorry, I have friends in Ukraine fighting right now, but I think we’ve done all we can practically do at this point. Yeah we had the obligation to help Ukraine and give them a chance to fight. But I’m not for risking WWIII for Ukraine.
This didn't answer my question. Again, if you think that Russia's Invasion of Ukraine caused China to rethink its approach to Taiwan, which is the far more important geopolitical position, how is withdrawing support after a few months not also going to inform Chinese perceptions of the West's response. You aren't being consistent, and on top of it, you are flippant about your own inconsistency. It's amazing.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 10:20 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Taiwan is a very different situation from Ukraine. Ukraine being invaded is a major annoyance for the world. If Taiwan is invaded, then societies collapse. You don’t understand how important that island is.
Since you keep bringing this point up again and again to everyone else and haven't answered it yourself for Taiwan
quote:
Seriously, how much money is too much? No one has answered that,
Posted on 7/1/22 at 10:22 pm to lsuconnman
quote:
Any updates on Snake Island?
After Russia retreated they supposedly then bombed it and Odessa. Ukraine basically then called them out on their good will BS
Posted on 7/1/22 at 10:26 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Since you keep bringing this point up again and again to everyone else and haven't answered it yourself for Taiwan
It’s total societal and economic collapse if Taiwan is invaded, so it’s apples and oranges. Very different scenarios.
This post was edited on 7/1/22 at 10:27 pm
Posted on 7/1/22 at 10:33 pm to OMLandshark
ISW update
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian forces continued efforts to encircle Lysychansk and conducted offensive operations to the south and southwest of the city.
Russian forces have likely not yet reached the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway on the ground but are denying Ukrainian forces use of it by continuing artillery and airstrikes against remaining Ukrainian positions along the road.
Russian forces focused on regrouping and improving their tactical positions north of Slovyansk.
Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground assaults in northern Kharkiv Oblast and continued shelling Ukrainian positions north of Kharkiv City.
Russian forces conducted artillery and missile strikes along the Southern Axis.
Russian authorities continue efforts to expand the pool of recruits available to fight in Ukraine.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 10:36 pm to StormyMcMan
Interesting that Russia is admitting to supply shortages
quote:
The Kremlin is likely setting conditions for crypto-mobilization of the Russian economy in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine. The Kremlin proposed an amendment to federal laws on Russian Armed Forces supply matters to the Russian State Duma on June 30, that would introduce “special measures in the economic sphere” obliging Russian businesses (regardless of ownership) to supply Russian special military and counterterrorist operations.[1] The amendment would prohibit Russian businesses from refusing to accept state orders for special military operations and allow the Kremlin to change employee contracts and work conditions, such as forcing workers to work during the night or federal holidays. The Kremlin noted in the amendment’s description that the ongoing special military operation in Ukraine exposed supply shortages, specifically materials needed to repair military equipment, and stated that Russian officials need to “concentrate their efforts in certain sectors of the economy." Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely mobilizing the Russian economy and industry to sustain the ongoing war effort, but has not yet taken parallel measures to mobilize Russian manpower on a large scale.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 10:44 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:Even though most of the action is in the East right now I'm fixated on the Southern Axis. Thanks.
Russian forces continued efforts to encircle Lysychansk and conducted offensive operations to the south and southwest of the city.
Russian forces have likely not yet reached the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway on the ground but are denying Ukrainian forces use of it by continuing artillery and airstrikes against remaining Ukrainian positions along the road.
Russian forces focused on regrouping and improving their tactical positions north of Slovyansk.
Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground assaults in northern Kharkiv Oblast and continued shelling Ukrainian positions north of Kharkiv City.
Russian forces conducted artillery and missile strikes along the Southern Axis.
Russian authorities continue efforts to expand the pool of recruits available to fight in Ukraine.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 10:48 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
If they attack a member of NATO. I’ve said this is my line multiple times today.
So after they control 20-25% of grain exports globally and 60%+ of global uranium mining on top of the O&G they export to exert control over Europe. They could just turn Europe damn near completely off if they controlled Kazakhstan’s uranium in addition to their O&G.
What do you suspect happens if the EU went dark?
quote:
The difference is Hitler had a book that directly told you everything he was going to do. Putin’s plans are way more simple and far less genocidal than Hitler’s vision.
Putin is following Russia’s historical playbook. Decently easy to telegraph his intentions.
quote:
I don’t know but your point “Yeah we’ve spent less in four months than we did in 45 years.” Yeah it better be, or else I’m going to get way more pissed.
Yet we’ve caused more direct damage to their traditional fighting capacity via arming & advising Ukraine than we did literally just trying to outspend them for 45 years. We’ve spent 75 years treating Russia as our greatest geopolitical threat and near peer and in 4 months and a tiny fraction of what we’ve spent over the last 75 years under this belief and driving defense policy we’ve shown the world they’re a large NK. That’s quite the bang for your buck in 4 months vs 75 years prior of foreign policy that still had the world fearful of Russias military prowess.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 10:56 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
So after they control 20-25% of grain exports globally and 60%+ of global uranium mining on top of the O&G they export to exert control over Europe. They could just turn Europe damn near completely off if they controlled Kazakhstan’s uranium in addition to their O&G.
What do you suspect happens if the EU went dark?
For y’all, I don’t know. But for me:
quote:
Yet we’ve caused more direct damage to their traditional fighting capacity via arming & advising Ukraine than we did literally just trying to outspend them for 45 years. We’ve spent 75 years treating Russia as our greatest geopolitical threat and near peer and in 4 months and a tiny fraction of what we’ve spent over the last 75 years under this belief and driving defense policy we’ve shown the world they’re a large NK. That’s quite the bang for your buck in 4 months vs 75 years prior of foreign policy that still had the world fearful of Russias military prowess.
A lot of gibberish to defend your bullshite.
This post was edited on 7/1/22 at 10:57 pm
Posted on 7/1/22 at 11:02 pm to OMLandshark
I agree with you on Taiwan. Militarily and strategically it is an area that we cannot cede to China under any circumstances. But Ukraine is also important. If you don’t think stopping Russia and having taken out a large chuck of their military hardware for not a lot of gain is only good for the US and the western countries. Anytime Russia is in a point of strength and power is bad for the majority of the world. Unfortunately it is because of their leader and it’s a shame they don’t rise up and throw him out of power. I’m sure there is someone in that country that could be a decent leader but until Putin is gone there has been a line drawn by both sides. There is no repairing the relationship with the west and Putin.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 11:02 pm to DabosDynasty
When Russia wins, it will severely diminish our prestige, and it will harm NATOs credibility.
We will be called weak.
China will test us.
We will be called weak.
China will test us.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 11:06 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
When Russia wins, it will severely diminish our prestige, and it will harm NATOs credibility.
NATO has credibility?
We will be called weak.
I mean...if the shoe fits.
China will test us.
Maybe, but I don’t think so.
ETA, I didn’t think Russia would invade based on what was known at the time. Needless to say, there was some stuff happening that would have altered my opinion.
The same may well be the case for the China / Taiwan scenario.
This post was edited on 7/1/22 at 11:10 pm
Posted on 7/1/22 at 11:07 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
It’s total societal and economic collapse if Taiwan is invaded, so it’s apples and oranges. Very different scenarios.
Brah, you've made the very strong argument that we shouldn't support Taiwan at all, given the stakes and the the relative size of China and Taiwan. Taiwan is always going to lose, as the demographics dictate it, and it is only a matter of time. In many ways, you can say they already lost, despite their admirable performance holding out. Thus, given that one reason Taiwan is so important is industry-specific, we should instead spend any and all monies on developing our own chip foundries and manufacturing infrastructure. Because the Chinese attack will not happen in a vacuum, we can immediately offer asylum to any Taiwanese, especially those in the chip sector, to make up for any manufacturing deficiencies. Hell we don't even have to wait for a Chinese to ramp up the rhetoric, we can just go ahead and try to lure Taiwanese talent right now.
The shipping issue is obviously outside our purview, and your claim about China being boxed in by shallow seas is nonsensical. According to some, Russia's victory will reverberate throughout the world, so much so that it will erase any of the gains that you noted earlier. If we have to focus on the money aspect, you've made a strong argument that relying on Taiwan is too dangerous an enterprise. Any money we would potentially spend is ultimately wasted, and thus money that would go to Taiwan's defense should instead be directed to US.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 11:25 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:Roger, you are the average American. Your worldview is quite common.
The very very average American has been fooled by cheap propaganda and buy it because somehow it gives them value.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 11:28 pm to crazy4lsu
Some of you mfers are beyond clueless little pussies, I assume you have cut off your nuts and are trans into a bitch because you have always been a little bitch.
Russia is as much a threat to us as an possum is to a eagle. China more like a Badger to an Bear. Dry your panties out bitches. Russia is Iraq with Nukes, maybe not even that you dumb mfers. They may still win this if we aren’t going to deploy any of our real weapons systems and just get tired of it, but most likely this ends in a deal in the late summer or fall. Why do you dumb shits ask then? I have told you at least 50 fricking times, their equipment is junk and they will run out of parts in 6 months or less. This is lining up exactly with what all the military think tanks are saying, I wonder why?
BECAUSE EVERYONE KNOWS THIS, ITS NOT A SECRET dumbfricks.
Learn more post less. mark this thread, make money on it, claim to be your opinion, rub a fricking crystal ball whatever because this is what is going to happen period.
Russia is as much a threat to us as an possum is to a eagle. China more like a Badger to an Bear. Dry your panties out bitches. Russia is Iraq with Nukes, maybe not even that you dumb mfers. They may still win this if we aren’t going to deploy any of our real weapons systems and just get tired of it, but most likely this ends in a deal in the late summer or fall. Why do you dumb shits ask then? I have told you at least 50 fricking times, their equipment is junk and they will run out of parts in 6 months or less. This is lining up exactly with what all the military think tanks are saying, I wonder why?
BECAUSE EVERYONE KNOWS THIS, ITS NOT A SECRET dumbfricks.
Learn more post less. mark this thread, make money on it, claim to be your opinion, rub a fricking crystal ball whatever because this is what is going to happen period.
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