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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/18/22 at 1:27 am to northshorebamaman
Posted on 6/18/22 at 1:27 am to northshorebamaman
quote:
You've spent the last few months telling us about the overwhelming Russian firepower and how the Ukrainians are on the doorstep of defeat.
0
Posted on 6/18/22 at 4:45 am to Jim Rockford
quote:Wow. What Tokayev said is an insult to Putin. But where he said it is very significant. Right on Putin's St. Petersburg International Economic Forum stage, with Russian TV cameras rolling.
Vigilant News@VigilantinfoN
Kazakh president #Tokayev while speaking at #SPIEF-2022, described the "#LNR" and "#DNR" as "failed states" and said it is likely that #Kazakhstan would not recognise them.
Plot twist: Putin was on the stage with him when he said it.
Regional Russian politicians will be watching closely. Weakness from Moscow will make efforts to keep a lid on local ethnic populations more difficult. Things may get slippery in the Caucasus.
Posted on 6/18/22 at 5:37 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Wow. What Tokayev said is an insult to Putin.
Yeah, it's kind of amazing. I've followed it a bit since I'm supposed to head there next May, and I know a couple of engineers from Kazakhstan. In January the Russians sent in special forces to help Tokayev stay in power. And yet in February Tokayev said that it looks like a new Iron Curtain is going up and he does not want to be stuck on the Russian side of it. And he's gone along with sanctions on Russia. The Russians are pissed and making barely veiled threats.
quote:
Russian TV talkshow anchor Tigran Keosayan, sometimes talked of as a Kremlin “attack dog”, earlier this year reacted to Nur-Sultan’s decision to not hold a military parade on Victory Day by calling Kazakhstan “ungrateful”, remarking that the ex-Soviet state should “look at Ukraine carefully, think seriously.”
LINK
In the same article:
quote:
the president noted that some people in Russia “misrepresent the whole situation” by claiming that Russia “saved” Kazakhstan and now Nur-Sultan must for ever “serve and bow at the feet” of Russia. Tokayev said that the reasoning was “far from reality,” as the CSTO deployment did not fire a single bullet while in Kazakhstan and left within 10 days.
Tokayev is walking a fine line. The problem for the Russians is that Kazakhstan is HUGE, it's the size of all of western europe, and it's mostly muslim. And they are fairly busy elsewhere.
Posted on 6/18/22 at 7:19 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
There are Unconfirmed reports that Romania and Bulgaria have responded to the United States/Ukraine’s request for them to restart production on 152mm Artillery Shells to provide to the Ukrainian Military by reopening at least 2 Soviet Era Munitions Factories. LINK
Now there’s some helpful action if true.
Posted on 6/18/22 at 8:22 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Russian losses will be much lower. They’re being very cautious.
Unconfirmed Ukrainian sources report that the Kremlin fired the Commander of the Russian Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Andrey Serdyukov, due to mass casualties among Russian paratroopers.
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17
Posted on 6/18/22 at 9:02 am to cypher
I think chromdome shared this update originally last night, but I’m adding for the “it has been noted from several sources that Belarus is moving combat read mechanized troops to the areas around the border to western Ukraine.”
This is the second or third time that has been sourced, but hasn’t happened yet. With the Ukrainians making some ground in Kherson and still grinding in Severondetsk is there a chance this is more likely now to divide the Ukrainian efforts and gain a breakthrough in the East and South?
Posted on 6/18/22 at 9:10 am to cypher
quote:quote:
Russian losses will be much lower. They’re being very cautious.
Unconfirmed Ukrainian sources report that the Kremlin fired the Commander of the Russian Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Andrey Serdyukov, due to mass casualties among Russian paratroopers.
A pretty good Perun dropped a few days ago - "All metal, no manpower". Apparently there has been a large conscription in the Donbas, and the Russians are using the conscripts as poorly trained, poorly armed shock troops. They are being used to reduce Russian troop losses and find the locations for the Russian artillery to shoot at. Nice guys, the Russians. The separatist leaders (Girkin included) are saying that they are now scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Perun
Posted on 6/18/22 at 9:30 am to DabosDynasty
Belarus's military is orders of magnitude less competent than Russia's. The average Belarus soldier was never enthusiastic about getting involved and will be even less so after three months of observing this shitshow from the sidelines. In addition, Russia has been stripping Belarus of armor and heavy equipment to replace its own losses.
Lukashenko's hold on power has never been very tight; he remains there only with Russian backing. Joining Russia's war could bring him down, which is why he's resisted so far. But Russia could easily replace him with someone more compliant. So he's in a Catch-22.
I think the threat is most likely a bluff but there could be something to it. The west has been careful about getting directly involved, but if this happens Poland may say frick it and slip the chain.
Lukashenko's hold on power has never been very tight; he remains there only with Russian backing. Joining Russia's war could bring him down, which is why he's resisted so far. But Russia could easily replace him with someone more compliant. So he's in a Catch-22.
I think the threat is most likely a bluff but there could be something to it. The west has been careful about getting directly involved, but if this happens Poland may say frick it and slip the chain.
Posted on 6/18/22 at 9:51 am to Tigris
quote:
Wow. What Tokayev said is an insult to Putin.
Yeah, it's kind of amazing. I've followed it a bit since I'm supposed to head there next May, and I know a couple of engineers from Kazakhstan. In January the Russians sent in special forces to help Tokayev stay in power. And yet in February Tokayev said that it looks like a new Iron Curtain is going up and he does not want to be stuck on the Russian side of it. And he's gone along with sanctions on Russia. The Russians are pissed and making barely veiled threats
Most people don't know much of anything about Kazakhstan but they are a very important country. They are enormous and produce a lot of the world's Uranium.
Depending on who you believe they are either a puppet state of Russia or a former Soviet state gradually developing independence and financial stability. If the latter is true then it is a work in progress. Most of the population is extremely poor and the destabilization early this year amounted to an uprising when poor citizens could no longer afford energy costs.
But they are cultivating relationships with the west and China as well as continuing to closely work with Russia. If Tokayev believes Putin's days are limited then the insult makes more sense.
Posted on 6/18/22 at 9:55 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
The west has been careful about getting directly involved, but if this happens Poland may say frick it and slip the chain.
That was my next question. Lol. Poland has a long history in the region involved if they do, but I am not an expert in it. That’s aside from the well known history with Russia that applies as well.
Posted on 6/18/22 at 9:58 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The Ukrainians outnumber the Russians.
And the Russians aren’t operating under any time pressure.
As I have mentioned in this thread before I come here every few days to catch up on what's going on and I just feel the need to point out you are a god damn idiot.
Posted on 6/18/22 at 10:29 am to RLDSC FAN
U.S. officials weigh doubling the number of rocket launchers sent to Ukraine
The Pentagon is leaning toward sending four more rocket launchers to Ukraine in the next tranche of military aid, according to two Defense Department officials.
If approved by the White House, the move would double the number of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems sent to the country, as Ukrainian and Russian forces continue their long-range artillery battle in Ukraine’s east.
Politico
The Pentagon is leaning toward sending four more rocket launchers to Ukraine in the next tranche of military aid, according to two Defense Department officials.
If approved by the White House, the move would double the number of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems sent to the country, as Ukrainian and Russian forces continue their long-range artillery battle in Ukraine’s east.
Politico
Posted on 6/18/22 at 10:43 am to Jim Rockford
quote:my guys are saying it’s complete bullshite. The numbers in terms of RU desertions are crazy at the moment. Another General got popped yesterday, chain of command is in complete disarray but oddly this is helping OTG guys take either responsibility for their own movements or they are deserting and looking to surrender. More on book/off book stuff is making its way into the theatre while Russia is struggling to hold onto ammo dumps and tanker trucks to resupply. Russian incremental gains are being lost again according to folks I’ve been talking to-like it’s stalled and starting to go backwards.
likely a bluff
Posted on 6/18/22 at 11:34 am to LSUCanFAN
In my update yesterday I called the lack of Russian progress out.
Since the 2nd phase of the war began Mid April, 1st phase ended when Russia withdrew from the North, Rusia has made very little gain in any location.
They are losing territory in the Kharkiv area, west of Izium, and in the Kherson area.
They haven't taken Severodonetsk, the push from Popsana has gone all of 15 KM in a month. They captured Lyman a couple of weeks ago, but haven't been able to advance beyond it.
Seriously, where on the battlefield is Russia making any significant advances? I don't see it.
Since the 2nd phase of the war began Mid April, 1st phase ended when Russia withdrew from the North, Rusia has made very little gain in any location.
They are losing territory in the Kharkiv area, west of Izium, and in the Kherson area.
They haven't taken Severodonetsk, the push from Popsana has gone all of 15 KM in a month. They captured Lyman a couple of weeks ago, but haven't been able to advance beyond it.
Seriously, where on the battlefield is Russia making any significant advances? I don't see it.
This post was edited on 6/18/22 at 11:35 am
Posted on 6/18/22 at 11:40 am to Chromdome35
ISW Map of the Severodonetsk Pocket on April 25th.
ISW Map of the Severodonetsk Pocket on June 17th
Russia has had its entire focus on this area for 2 months and this is what they have to show for it?
ISW Map of the Severodonetsk Pocket on June 17th
Russia has had its entire focus on this area for 2 months and this is what they have to show for it?
Posted on 6/18/22 at 12:10 pm to LSUCanFAN
I understand the Russians attempted yet another wet crossing by pontoon bridge across the Siverski Donets River, at the same location of the last two disasters. The Ukrainians reportedly mined the pontoon bridge and the Russians again suffered serious losses.
All I can say is wow.
All I can say is wow.
Posted on 6/18/22 at 12:18 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:
Maybe it's just me but I'm starting to think you don't know what the frick you're talking about.
It's not just you. He's a fricking idiot.
Posted on 6/18/22 at 12:35 pm to LSUPilot07
I didn’t think it was interesting
Posted on 6/18/22 at 12:35 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
They haven't taken Severodonetsk, the push from Popsana has gone all of 15 KM in a month. They captured Lyman a couple of weeks ago, but haven't been able to advance beyond it.
Yet the Russian forces are still advancing. It might take awhile but the power of almighty Russia will capture Severodonetsk before the year 2022 is finished. Then the almighty Russia will turn its eyes on Odessa. It will capture Odessa by the year 2028. Russia's technical and medical superiority as demonstrated by being the first nation to produce a covid-19 vaccine will ensure that President Putin is able to defeat cancer just like he defeated the nazi in Mariupol. Turkey will become more and more frustrated with Europe and NATO. Turkey will become so tired of dealing with Europeans that it will withdraw its application to the EU and withdraw from NATO. It will need another source of weapons and another nation to provide a nuclear umbrella for protection. Russia will be that nation. In exchange for military protection as assistance Turkey will give all of European Turkey including Constantinople to Russia. This will allow Turkey to be done with Europe once and for all and will be the greatest insult to Europe in its history. Russia will force Syria into territorial concessions that help Turkey offset this loss and admit Turkey into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The Orthodox Cross will be raised on top of the Hagia Sophia in the year 2037 to celebrate the 1600th anniversary of its completion and all the world will know that the 21st century is going to be a Russian dominated century.
Posted on 6/18/22 at 12:42 pm to TBoy
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1538194153405825024
quote:
Russians units that captured Lyman are so combat ineffective due to massive losses that they are unable to cross the river.
Ukrainian defenders made sure they paid for every inch of Lyman and it shows.
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